Meyer? Meyer! A Rewind on Meyer

[tobi0040]

 

Meyer to me, still has the two best pitches in the entire organization, so it's ridiculous to write him off.

 

 

 

 

 

Couldn't agree with you more.  That fb/slider combination is lethal

 

I think he has the potential to have the two best pitches.  But command is part of the package and last year he really had no idea where the fastball was going at times.  And rarely got ahead of hitters so he could not really use the slider (rarely went for a strike).

 

 

 

[Kwak]

This thread brings back memories of a "Joe Benson Thread".  Some posters had "adopted [him] as the 'Next Big Thing' " only to learn that the Twins had decided that [he] probably wasn't going to be and others had passed [him] on the list to be the "NBT".  Hence, on to Palookaville.  I understand it's difficult to accept that [you] made a mistake about the "NBT".  But, take solace there are other candidates in the organization that have legitimate (better) claims to become the "NBT".

[twinssouth]

 

This thread brings back memories of a "Joe Benson Thread".  Some posters had "adopted [him] as the 'Next Big Thing' " only to learn that the Twins had decided that [he] probably wasn't going to be and others had passed [him] on the list to be the "NBT".  Hence, on to Palookaville.  I understand it's difficult to accept that [you] made a mistake about the "NBT".  But, take solace there are other candidates in the organization that have legitimate (better) claims to become the "NBT".

 

 

Yowsers, compared to Joe Benson, ouch

[jokin]

 

This thread brings back memories of a "Joe Benson Thread".  Some posters had "adopted [him] as the 'Next Big Thing' " only to learn that the Twins had decided that [he] probably wasn't going to be and others had passed [him] on the list to be the "NBT".  Hence, on to Palookaville.  I understand it's difficult to accept that [you] made a mistake about the "NBT".  But, take solace there are other candidates in the organization that have legitimate (better) claims to become the "NBT".

 

Meyer aint Benson.

[Thrylos]

 

 Let's see if he can get to the majors first

 

Last time I checked, he did.

[DocBauer]

Forget for a moment that the Twins rotation...healthy...is borderline crowded, and put Meyer in there. Much has been made in past discussion about Randy Johnson's early career and fighting walk issues before eventually overcoming them.

 

Do you think this staff would be more lenient in this area than the previous staff? Letting him pitch, letting him learn and work through things, putting up with bouts of wildness and walks.

[jokin]

 

Forget for a moment that the Twins rotation...healthy...is borderline crowded, and put Meyer in there. Much has been made in past discussion about Randy Johnson's early career and fighting walk issues before eventually overcoming them.

Do you think this staff would be more lenient in this area than the previous staff? Letting him pitch, letting him learn and work through things, putting up with bouts of wildness and walks.

 

The problem with your theory is that he only imploded after the new regime was put in place at the major league level. He had already dominated at the same level in 2014. Clearly, whatever the new philosophy was that went into effect in 2015 resulted in disaster for Meyer's prospect status and downgraded prospective MLB role.

 

As I've previously stated, like the Expos in 1989 with the Big Unit, I fear that the Twins sell low to a team like the Mariners, or the Pirates, or the Rays, and Meyer reaches his full potential with them instead of the Twins.

[bird]

When people declare the trade to be a bad one (rather than simply stating the obvious that the trade so far favors Washington), the implication is they're "giving up" on Meyer. Either that, or they're just seizing an opportunity to be critical. So far in this thread, unlike plenty of previous threads, no one appears to have 'given up" completely on Meyer.

 

Citing a prospect's age in a vacuum as if it's a reliable predictor of potential is deficient. Meyer, for example, has specific flaws impeding his progress. His control problems have nothing to do with his age. On the other hand, it's fair to question whether his lack of progress over time is an indication that he's less promising than we originally thought. So, I think when most of us cite "age" as a reason for having a lower opinion on a prospect, we're probably influenced by the prospect's slower rate of progress rather than his actual age.

[dougkoebernick]

 

Tough crowd here.  The guy had a bad year and off to the bullpen.  And Seth, you keep bringing up bullpen like it's a done deal.  He's too good to be written off this quick.  My guess is the Twins were pounding him on the walks which led to grooving the fb.  Last year they just wanted him to get thru the season healthy, limiting his innings pitch per game.  This year it's his mechanics.  Why not give the guy a mulligan and see how he does next year.  If he still has problems, then send him to the bullpen.  He's got starter stuff.  Look at the Mets; 4 young power pitchers, something the Twins sorely need. 

 

I saw Seth's ranking on a separate thread on where Meyer's at, somewhere around l3 and saying basically we have a good late inning power arm rp. Well I don't agree with that and if I did, I sure has heck would have had him higher than Burdi which I haven't seen so far in the rankings, thus assuming he's somewhere higher than Meyer.

Do you think his quickest route to the big leagues is as a SP or RP? I think that may partially be where Seth is coming from - that and the fact that I don't think he is in the top seven right now for a SP slot. 

 

[bird]

 

{Meyer} only imploded after the new regime was put in place at the major league level. He had already dominated at the same level in 2014. Clearly, whatever the new philosophy was that went into effect in 2015 resulted in disaster for Meyer's prospect status and downgraded prospective MLB role.

 

This theory is close to implausible. Lots of factors make sense in explaining Meyer's struggles: injury, personal stresses, mechanical problems, coaching, etc. But to blame his poor performance and/or his subsequent fall as a prospect on some imaginary new philosophy imposed by some major regime change? Really?

[Platoon]

I said he has the "potential" to pitch another 12-14 yrs. That is basically in response to all those who feel he's getting too old or close to it. Of course, even I know that he has too make it to the majors.

My suggestion to all of us when reading these posts is to try understand the meaning and not focus on a short phrase. My wife does that enough.

Your wife pays attention to you?

[brvama]

Your wife pays attention to you?

Just for "short phrases"

[Platoon]

Several thoughts. The Twins have been drafting high velocity relievers and trying to turn them into starters. They take their most physically gifted high velocity starter, and try and turn him into a reliever. The Twins theories on abhorring the walk, comes from the top down. Ryan would not be a "no walk" guy for 16 yrs, and then hire a "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" staff in the 17 th yr. Like it or not, his philosophy is engrained. Lastly, one of the hardest things to do, is throw strikes, if all you are thinking about is throwing strikes. It's like playing golf, the straighter you try and hit it, the further you have to walk into the woods to find it. It gets into your brain. Some players need positive reinforcement, and some need to see the traveling secretary sitting in the stands, holding an airline ticket to AA ball. The secret is to know the difference. It's probably why coaching is more about psychology than about teaching.

[jsteve96]

i think that Meyer was just dealt a lot of bad luck and having bad luck(High BABIP) does not mix well when you have a problem with walks. he had a 3.28 FIP which makes me believe next year he could easily have an ERA around 3 or below again. i hope he gets the chance to start, but i'd take him as an eighth or 7th inning guy any day

[Brock Beauchamp]

Meyer walks too many people but based on some interesting comments made by Ryan in the upcoming handbook interview, that may not be a deal breaker if Alex stays in the pen.

[GP830]

I still think he can figure it out. I remember reading that he's a smart and articulate guy, not unlike May, but who once had a more impressive make-up. If he had something several years ago that made him so appealing, it's still in him. Especially when control is the issue, I have to believe it's a mechanical fix. Especially when you've got 6'7 of body to manage and maintain--I imagine it can be difficult to assess angle and release issues. 

 

 

[brvama]

I, too, think he'll figure it out this next year. My main contention, and this is pure speculation spiced with a quart of hope, is that his mental state had more to do with his troubles than anything physical.

 

Smart people, as Meyer supposedly is, often over-analyze things. With the trade and prospect ranking Alex certainly had a heap of expectation placed upon him. When he struggled, that pressure IMO added to his struggles as he pressed to correct everything to become what everyone expected of him.

 

I think in 2016 he may come in a bit more relaxed and with a bit of a chip on his shoulder. Berrios has overtaken the top SP prospect spot and Meyer seems to have been sent to the end of the bench,banished to the BP. It's possible he feels that others no longer believe that he's that elite SP prospect as before. It may drive his focus toward his work and not on expectations. He may settle down to prove everyone wrong.

 

I do hope he will find himself this next year.

[jimmer]

I think there's a lot of wishful thinking going on, and I'll add to that.  I'm wishful too.  I'm not sure there's any logic behind being wishful in this case, but rather a lot of straw grasping, but I still am wishful.

 

Thing is, if all he ends up being is a middle reliever, it'll be a disappointment.

[DocBauer]

If he returns to form...that is, 2014 version with a bit more consistency...how much crazy fun would it be trying to assemble all of our young pitchers on to a roster? May, Duffey, Berrios, Gibson and Meyer. Wow.

[jimbo92107]

 

I really hope you are wrong.  I was as high on May as I was on Meyer and don't see why May wasn't considered to have nearly as high a ceiling.   Pretty good heat along with a good change and curveball.  I think his command has been what has separated him into higher end potential  I still think a full season of May will beat a full season of Duffey but really, really want them both to get every chance possible.   While I think May has shown he can be that kind of starter I also think he has shown he can be more than average out of the bullpen which isn't all bad either.

If you're right (and you may be), then the Twins will be a pretty happy team in 2016.

[Seth Stohs]

Alex Meyer got married on Saturday. Michael Tonkin's getting married this offseason. AJ Achter just got engaged... Nothing but positive things for all of them going forward... 

 

No, I don't really think there is a connection between getting married and success on a baseball field, but you never know.

[Jham]

So sometimes I think Alex Meyer as a top prospect is just more myth or legend than anything based on reality.  I mean, how hard does he actually throw?  Some people say ability to touch 100, or consistently upper 90s?  Fangraphs, SSS, had him at 95.6 mph on avg.  Now that is impressive, but this is not Craig Kimbrel nor Ardolis Chapman nor Delin Betances territory.  Big difference between 96 and 97 let alone 99.

Still the comparisons to Randy Johnson?  Call it poor control or bad luck or whatever, but the guy has trouble getting outs against minor leaguers.  The K's are nice, but I am starting to think it has less to do with his stuff and more about his wildness.  He can strike out impatient young hitters, but not so much those with refined approaches.  Major league lineups are pretty much full of hitters with refined approaches.  That doesn't bode well.  Nor am I very confident that he will suddenly find his control, although he's apparently changed his release point several times, so maybe when that evens out...  

If we're basing our opinions on how his skill set will potentially play up instead of his actual body of work, the we need to be real about what his skill set actually is.  Straight mid-90s fastball, no consistency, lack of location, little confidence in tertiary pitches, and a good secondary pitch which I would guess that he tips considering reports of hitters having no problems laying off his slider.
 

[jimbo92107]

Based on all the comments I've read in this thread, I'd plant Meyer in the AAA starting rotation and make him lose that job before sticking him in the bullpen. One more year to try starting isn't going to make that much difference to his career, and if he's just not a starter, then we should know by the end of 2016. 

 

The other factor is timing. 2016 is the last year we can claim this team is "rebuilding," so I'd feel free to do one more year of tinkering with guys like Meyer and May. I'd also like to see a few of the flame throwers come up, guys like Burdi and Reed. Then Polanco, Stewart and Taylor Rogers. First half of next season would be musical chairs, kind of like it was this season.

[sane]

 

 a good secondary pitch which I would guess that he tips considering reports of hitters having no problems laying off his slider.
 

 

If he had better command of his pitches, hitters would not be able to lay off his slider. When a pitcher has marginal command, hitters can sit on fastballs down the middle and lay off EVERYTHING else. Improved command can eliminate many problems.
 

[David HK]

They need to go out and find whatever octogenerian worked with the young Randy Johnson, and wheel him down to Ft. Meyers this spring.  

[nicksaviking]

 

that's the problem thoUgh, cutting down walks is the toughest part.

 

I agree, it appears to be the toughest part.

 

Though I don't think cutting down walks for a relief pitchers is always a necessity.  Count Dellin Betances, Justin Grimm and Aroldis Chapman among the relief pitchers who had a worse BB/9 than 4.10 last year.

[ashbury]

Based on all the comments I've read in this thread, I'd plant Meyer in the AAA starting rotation and make him lose that job before sticking him in the bullpen.

The other approach: try to use the bullpen as a way to get him some success in the majors. Have him concentrate on just his best two pitches for one inning at a time. If not even that works, then down to AAA and let them figure something out with him. But if he's got good results, have him add his third pitch at about the six week mark, and when that's clicking then stretch him out with some longer relief stints, then finally move him into the starting rotation for hopefully 5 inning starts to begin with.

[big dog]

I just hope he gets to pitch a lot, in whatever role, so that he has a chance to figure things out.  I wish him the best.

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

The other factor is timing. 2016 is the last year we can claim this team is "rebuilding," so I'd feel free to do one more year of tinkering with guys like Meyer and May. I'd also like to see a few of the flame throwers come up, guys like Burdi and Reed. Then Polanco, Stewart and Taylor Rogers. First half of next season would be musical chairs, kind of like it was this season.

Just a small word of caution.    Yes, if we add Berrios, Buxton, another pitcher like Thorpe or Gonsalves along with Polanco, Burdi and Kepler we can consider the rebuild as pretty much complete.  That is not to say success will immediately follow.    One could point to the Royals in 2012 and say the rebuild was complete because many of the pieces were in place but they were 72-90 that year.  It took them two more years before they made the playoffs and success there notwithstanding it took them another year to be really good.   87 Twins rebuild didn't happen in 86 but the several years before that.   It may not happen with this group at all but I am fine with rolling the dice on the chance.

[jokin]

 

This theory is close to implausible. Lots of factors make sense in explaining Meyer's struggles: injury, personal stresses, mechanical problems, coaching, etc. But to blame his poor performance and/or his subsequent fall as a prospect on some imaginary new philosophy imposed by some major regime change? Really?

 

Except that I expressed no theory, what I stated is entirely accurate for what has happened with Meyer over a one-year period. I never expressed any hint of "some imaginary new philosophy imposed by some major regime change."  He has gone from dominant AAA starter to rather tenuous, mid-leverage situational RP.

 

Nice try, keep on keeping on, I guess.