ranking the Twins tradeable assets

[gunnarthor]

I thought we could try and rank what are tradeable assets.  Even assuming that Buxton and Sano are untradeable, the Twins have a nice system if they wanted to make a splash, including at least 4 top 100 prospects (potentially more) and some young, cost controlled ML talent.  I tried ranking them in tiers instead of numbers but that's not perfect either.  

 

Tier 1 - these are the assets that most teams would clearly love to have as they are young and already capable in the high minors or low payroll on the ML rosters.  If we want a guy like Lucroy, for example, one of these is probably going back.  Gibson, Dozier, Berrios and Kepler.  

 

Tier 2 - a notch below but pretty good - top 100 prospects and cost controlled talent on the ML roster.  Gordon, Jay, Polanco, Plouffe, Rosario, Hicks.  

 

Tier 3 - Might have lost some luster but still valuable but limited - Meyer, Stewart, Hughes (if deemed healthy), May

 

Tier 4 - good enough to be the centerpiece in a small secondary type deal (ie the deal you hope isn't the Twins big splash) - Duffey, Milone, Gonsalves, our 2nd round pick we can trade, Escobar

 

Tier 5 - Might be a secondary piece but won't be a centerpiece in any major trade - Burdi, Walker, Arcia

 

Tier 6 - These guys don't really have trade value for other teams at this moment - Nolasco, Santana, Vargas, Pinto

[Willihammer]

I think you're pretty much right. Question - if Buxton were on the table, would he be in tier #1 or a tier of his own?

[HitInAPinch]

"Even assuming that Buxton and Sano are untradeable....."

True statement, but for different reasons

 

Ryan would have to do a heck of a sales job to be able to trade Buxton at this point.  Here's hoping he's learned something from Bruno.

[nytwinsfan]

Why would we want Lucroy, especially for the guys you mention? He just came off a career worst year with a concussion.  Seriously?

[Willihammer]

 

Why would we want Lucroy, especially for the guys you mention? He just came off a career worst year with a concussion.  Seriously?

The concussion is worrisome but the flipside is that drives down the price, no? If he rebounds he would be a strong QO candidate.

[nytwinsfan]

 

The concussion is worrisome but the flipside is that drives down the price, no? If he rebounds he would be a strong QO candidate.

 

I suppose, but the names mentioned in return were:  Gibson, Dozier, Berrios and Kepler. Gibson is the only one of those I might consider for a guy with a concussion.

[beckmt]

I think you have Gibson too high and Gordon too low, but nice list. You will have to package money or a decent prospect to trade Nolasco. Nice list.

[Mike Sixel]

"Even assuming that Buxton and Sano are untradeable....."

True statement, but for different reasons

 

Ryan would have to do a heck of a sales job to be able to trade Buxton at this point.  Here's hoping he's learned something from Bruno.

I can't tell what you are saying here.....but Buxton is likely to still be a top 5-10 prospect this off season, so the real issue is getting enough value back.

[Dman]

I like the rankings but personally I am only willing to trade Plouffe and Gibson.  I like both players but I think we can find players capable of performing just about as well if not better who are younger and or cheaper.  Would love to trade Nolasco but that just isn't going to happen without taking on some other tough contract.

 

Shouldn't we follow the Cubs and Houston model of getting younger and establishing a core?  I don't think we have our core yet or not in a solid place yet.  I would lose older players for younger ones as the talent bubbles up from the farm some of players are gonna be good.  Get the core set then trade the farm for Vets or better yet get vets in FA.

[James]

 

Why would we want Lucroy, especially for the guys you mention? He just came off a career worst year with a concussion.  Seriously?

So all of us Twins fans can yell "Luuuuuuuc" when he comes up to bat, that's why we want him.  

[gunnarthor]

 

"Even assuming that Buxton and Sano are untradeable....."

True statement, but for different reasons

 

Ryan would have to do a heck of a sales job to be able to trade Buxton at this point.  Here's hoping he's learned something from Bruno.

What?  Buxton's probably the #1 prospect in baseball.  

[Mike Sixel]

What?  Buxton's probably the #1 prospect in baseball.

Nah, but top 10 for sure.

[gunnarthor]

 

Nah, but top 10 for sure.

He's still #1 on mlb.com's list, which updates.  The rest we'll have to wait on.  But, other than possibly Seager, I can't really see anyone being ranked ahead of him when all the lists start coming out this offseason.  He hit .305/.357/.500 in the minors this year despite having missed nearly all of last year and never playing at AA or AAA before.  

[HitInAPinch]

I confess, I was being a bit of a smart-ass there. Prospect is one thing.  Performance at the next level is another. Buxton just needs more MiLB time.  Possibly significant time.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it will be Seager on most lists. I'd bet good money on that.

 

gioloto will be top 5.

Is Gallo a rookie still?

Is Crawford?

[howieramone2]

 

I like the rankings but personally I am only willing to trade Plouffe and Gibson.  I like both players but I think we can find players capable of performing just about as well if not better who are younger and or cheaper.  Would love to trade Nolasco but that just isn't going to happen without taking on some other tough contract.

 

Shouldn't we follow the Cubs and Houston model of getting younger and establishing a core?  I don't think we have our core yet or not in a solid place yet.  I would lose older players for younger ones as the talent bubbles up from the farm some of players are gonna be good.  Get the core set then trade the farm for Vets or better yet get vets in FA.

All Houston did was start one, and some would even say two years earlier than we did. We will be looking at them from the rear view mirror in the not too distant future. TR and King Theo pretty much followed along the same lines by developing the farm system first. Theo started out with more tradeable assets, and being a large market team can not be overlooked.

 

Paying fans in the land of the cattle and the wheat and the folks that can't be beat, don't view the large market Lovable Losers, being a NL team, as someone we are in competion with.

[Mike Sixel]

All Houston did was start one, and some would even say two years earlier than we did. We will be looking at them from the rear view mirror in the not too distant future. TR and King Theo pretty much followed along the same lines by developing the farm system first. Theo started out with more tradeable assets, and being a large market team can not be overlooked. Paying fans in the land of the cattle and the wheat and the folks that can't be beat, don't view the large market Lovable Losers being a NL team, as someone we are in competion with.

Didn't Theo sign and flip FAs, and not keep them? Didn't they sign some Cubans? I think they may have tried the same thing, but didn't achieve them at the same rate. Chicago was lucky to finish worse and get better picks, but they also chose college guys, where the Twins chose HS guys. By that nature alone, it will likely take the Twins longer.....

[Winston Smith]

List looks kind of sad without Duensing.

[Thrylos]

Dozier that much higher than Plouffe and Escobar that much lower than both?  Nah.  Check their ages and numbers and salaries again

 

Perkins and Jepsen are missing.  So is E. Santana.

 

Gonsalves is way too low.  Would you trade him for Milone? (laughter.)

 

Pretty sure that Jay cannot be traded, since he has not been around for a year.

 

As far as value goes,  I think that it is nonsensical to trade low.  So I's put:

 

Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Gonsalves, and Buxton in one bucket

Stewart, Walker, Michael, Duffey, Rogers, Lee in another lower

 

Dozier, Plouffe, Perkins,  Hughes, E. Santana, in another

May, Hicks, Gibson,Escobar, Jepsen, in another

Milone, Pressly, Nunez, in a third.

 

 

 

 

[Hrbowski]

 

I can't tell what you are saying here.....but Buxton is likely to still be a top 5-10 prospect this off season, so the real issue is getting enough value back.

Nobody is going to pass him for #1.

[Thrylos]

 

Nobody is going to pass him for #1.

 

Lots of people passed him for a #1 the past couple seasons

[DocBauer]

I would bump Gonsalves up a notch on that list I think.

 

Where I would disagree with some folks...or they with me as it were...is on Nolasco and Arcia. I actually think there is decent value on both of these guys, though the team and match has to make sense.

 

For instance, a healthy Nolasco is a very solid, dependable experienced MLSP, pretty much in the NL for  his career. If you were a team like the Dodgers, let's say, and were heavy at the top of you rotation, but lacked depth, and a veteran guy that you were very familiar with was available for around $6M per season, for 2 seasons, and you might even get another low prospect thrown in the deal, and it only cost you a B+ prospect, you might be tempted. 

 

We can talk all we want to about the failings of Arcia last year, but previous to that, he was considered a big building block in our future. Again, I am reminded of an article written about mid-season here on TD about Arcia, (by Nick I want to say), that covers Arcia's numbers his first couple of seasons. And all I kept thinking was how I didn't want to lose a guy like that. And that if I was another team's GM, that's a guy I'd love to get!

 

I can't say I know exactly what the value of these two guys is right now. But in the right situation, or the right package, I think both of them have actual value, and are not just discard notions as some feel they are.
 

[jorgenswest]

I can't see anyone trading for Ervin Santana. He couldn't get a three year deal with what he has remaining if he were a free agent. Why would any team give up a player for him? They can spend the same money in free agency.

[markos]

This was a fun little exercise, and more difficult than I expected.  Here are my tiers:

 

Tier 0 - Sano
Tier 1 - Gibson, Dozier, Berrios, Buxton
Tier 2 - Kepler, Plouffe, Escobar, Gordon
Tier 3 - Duffey, May, Rosario, Hughes, Jay, Polanco
Tier 4 - Milone, Gonsalves, Stewart, Hicks, Perkins
Tier 5 - Walker, Meyer, Jepsen, E. Santana, Vargas, Rogers

Tier 6 - Burdi, Nolasco, D Santana, Arcia, Pinto, any of the other college relievers

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Gonsalves is way too low.  Would you trade him for Milone? (laughter.)

 

Pretty sure that Jay cannot be traded, since he has not been around for a year.

 

As far as value goes,  I think that it is nonsensical to trade low.  So I's put:

 

Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Gonsalves, and Buxton in one bucket

Stewart, Walker, Michael, Duffey, Rogers, Lee in another lower

 

Dozier, Plouffe, Perkins,  Hughes, E. Santana, in another

May, Hicks, Gibson,Escobar, Jepsen, in another

Milone, Pressly, Nunez, in a third.

You have Gonsalves ranked far too high, it is very likely that his ceiling is Milone.  Actually, you have several of the minor league guys ranked too high, but to each his own.  Jay can be traded after the WS ended.  MLB changed that rule b/c of the Trea Turner fiasco. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I can't see anyone trading for Ervin Santana. He couldn't get a three year deal with what he has remaining if he were a free agent. Why would any team give up a player for him? They can spend the same money in free agency.

Yeah, I didn't list everyone obviously.  I don't think Santana (or Perkins or Mauer or Suzuki) are going to be discussed so it wasn't really worth trying to figure out what tier they belong in. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This is a good exercise. If we had done this last year, you might see a lot of guys in higher tiers, like Arcia and Suzuki and Danny Santana. You would see other guys who were lower last year, and Sano in tier 1 or 2, instead of untouchable. I expect Plouffe won't be any more valuable to another team than he is right now. Plouffe will turn 30. We know Ryan is overly conservative but this shows that he finally has major league talent to bargain with, if he chooses.

[sconnytwinsfan]

I think that most people have lost touch with how trade values are working in MLB now.  To even get a legitimate 8th inning guy with a track record in exchange for Plouffe would be a big deal.  He has turned himself into a top half 3rd baseman....but there isn't as much trade value in that as you'd like.  Even to trade for an up and coming 2nd or 3rd year veteran with top of the rotation ceiling is going to cost too much in trade value.  

 

This is not going to be a big splash year.  We got spoiled by the bonanza T-Ryan brought in for AJ ten plus years ago.  It doesn't work like that anymore.  We couldn't even get Liriano back for Plouffe now.

 

I say....upgrade at catcher.  Don't trade Plouffe....you're not going to get an ace in a deal with him without sending Berrios out the door, too and that would be stupid.  Upgrade the bullpen...first by keeping Jepsen around.  They've been drafting power arms out of college for three years now. Give some of those guys a shot to catch on and see what happens.

 

If  you can unload Nolasco for some bullpen help or a catcher with a .250/.325/.400 bat, do it!  

 

Get in the mix next year and don't consider making a trade with an asset until you know if you're a buyer or a seller.  I don't think you need to go all in during the first year of this window  until you have a better idea of how far you can get.

[Thegrin]

We don't have our core of young players to build towards the future ??

 

C   - Herrmann, Turner, Garver (Pinto)

1B -  Vargas, Sano, Kepler (Plouffe)

2B - Polanco, D. Santana (Dozier)

3B - Sano (Plouffe)

SS - E. Escobar, D. Santana

OF - Trade Hicks (Yes, I am still a hater)

Buxton,

Rosario

Kepler

Arcia

DH - All of the above 

 

SP - Gibson,  Duffy, May, Milone, Berrios

RP - Pick em all from the minors

 

Is that not a young core ?  

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Duffey and May are way to low.  Both are young, have tons of service time left, and have had success at the major league level.  Both also have very acceptable peripheral rates with May sporting peripheral stats saying he could be a top of the rotation guy.  Those aren't tier 3 guys, and if that's what is on the table for them, you keep them.  If Gibson is a tier 1 guy, I also think he's on the block.  I'd be open to trading some prospects at this point to fill in some holes, but I think the team needs to be very very careful about that,as they need to trade from depth. 

 

I would be openly entertaining offers this offseason for Gibson, Milone, Nolasco (not that anyone is going to bite) and Plouffe.  I'd note though, that I'd probably only be willing to trade 2 of the 3 pitchers. 

 

From the prospects, I'd probably be very open to moving D. Santana at this point as there's no room at the major league level and there's a better prospect (Polanco) at his level.  He's blocked, and I don't see his value rising much.  If Escobar continues his success, Polanco would likely be on the block next season as well.