Twins outlook - mlbtraderumors

[Danchat]

I think the Twins have to hand Escobar the starting SS job in 2016. After a great 2014, they handed the job to Santana and gave him a pretty long leash too. Escobar had a great second half of 2015.

 

Give Escobar the job and see what he does over a full season. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm all for finding upgrades, but based on the season he had, it's going to be hard to upgrade on Escobar.  Not very many SS were better than him, and we don't have anything in the system that you could plug there and exceed what he's done at the position.  He's done this for a few years now, and I think he's earned the shot to prove it's legit.  The idea of getting Reyes is absurd.  I'm all for offloading Nolasco, but not to block Escobar. 

 

Now if you want to talk about bullpen, catching, a bench bat, or a time machine capable of bringing 2009 Mauer to the present, I'm all ears. 

[Badsmerf]

Time machine. Trade nolasco for a time machine.

[USAFChief]

Time machine. Trade nolasco for a time machine.

Then go back in time, and don't sign Nolasco.

 

Mind...blown.

[Mike Sixel]

Sanchez was named to the top thirty prospect list by BA, for that league. I would think you could get him, but it would cost something like Polanco and a RP. I would do that. And by Polanco, I mean a top ten prospect.

[tobi0040]

 

The Rockies are not going to trade for a curve-ball pitcher unless and until they move the franchise to sea level.  What a ridiculous trade idea.

 

Don, get used to those.  For some reason certain Twins players have more trade value on these boards than they do in real life.  Duensing for one. Nolasco is approaching Duensing though.  

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

I think the Twins have to hand Escobar the starting SS job in 2016. After a great 2014, they handed the job to Santana and gave him a pretty long leash too. Escobar had a great second half of 2015.

 

Give Escobar the job and see what he does over a full season. 

The difference between D. Santana and Escobar being Escobar has done it 2 years in row.  330 PA's in 2014, 270 PA's this year.  And he improve quite a bit this year.  Escobar has always looked more comfortable at SS than Santana.

[ashbury]

Then go back in time, and don't sign Nolasco.

 

Mind...blown.

Then with a blown mind, go ahead and sign Nolasco anyway, and give away the time machine to a kid on the street. Can't win.

[Major League Ready]

 

Sanchez was named to the top thirty prospect list by BA, for that league. I would think you could get him, but it would cost something like Polanco and a RP. I would do that. And by Polanco, I mean a top ten prospect.

 

 

Sanchez was named to the top thirty prospect list by BA, for that league. I would think you could get him, but it would cost something like Polanco and a RP. I would do that. And by Polanco, I mean a top ten prospect.

2B is a likely a target position for the Yankees to upgrade so Polanco seems like a good fit.  Will the Yankees want a ML ready player  or someone who will be ready sooner is the question.  This just seems like a really good player to target given McCann is signed through 2018 with a vesting option for 2019.  Polanco and Jake Reed?  That's a big YES for me. 

[sane]

 

Then go back in time, and don't sign Nolasco.

Mind...blown.

If you don't sign Nolasco, you can't trade him for a time machine.

SO, then you CAN'T go back in time to sign (or NOT sign) Nolasco.

 

This another fine mess you've gotten me into, Ollie!

[nicksaviking]

 

Gotta use 2 years to get a more meaningful picture.  I don't want Reyes for a variety of issues.

 

Desmond however had a down year. but historically is an elite player at the position, a big power bat for a SS, and a very competent glove who has played the position just about every game for 6 years running.

 

He's rated the #1 SS in terms of fWAR over the last 4 seasons, and #3 over the last 3, and last 2, seasons. A comp between Esco and Desi?  They really shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence.

 

 

Desmond's AVG, OBP, SLG and UZR have decreased each of the past three seasons.  This doesn't look like a one year blip, it looks like a trend.  I wouldn't want to give a declining offensive and defensive shortstop a long term deal.  I also wouldn't want to give a declining offensive and defensive shortstop a short term deal considering he's going to cost the Twins a first round draft pick.

 

Escobar isn't sexy, but his bat is above average and there is nothing to indicate that he is anything other than a middle of the road defender, which I can't believe isn't fine considering the issues this club has had with the position for nearly its entire existence.  Unless he's been bad in the few games I missed, shortstop doesn't look anything close to a concern to me at this time. 

 

 

[Linus]

For the right catcher the only people not available for trade are berrios. Buxton and sano

[nicksaviking]

 

 

The difference between D. Santana and Escobar being Escobar has done it 2 years in row.  330 PA's in 2014, 270 PA's this year.  And he improve quite a bit this year.  Escobar has always looked more comfortable at SS than Santana.

 

Also, Escobar did it this year with a .301 BABIP as opposed to Santana's .405 last year.

[tobi0040]

 

Desmond's AVG, OBP, SLG and UZR have decreased each of the past three seasons.  This doesn't look like a one year blip, it looks like a trend.  I wouldn't want to give a declining offensive and defensive shortstop a long term deal.  I also wouldn't want to give a declining offensive and defensive shortstop a short term deal considering he's going to cost the Twins a first round draft pick.

 

Escobar isn't sexy, but his bat is above average and there is nothing to indicate that he is anything other than a middle of the road defender, which I can't believe isn't fine considering the issues this club has had with the position for nearly its entire existence.  Unless he's been bad in the few games I missed, shortstop doesn't look anything close to a concern to me at this time. 

 

If it was between a 6-7 year deal for Desmond or going year to year with Escobar, I would rather go year to year.  Desmond will be better, but the risk and leaving the position open for someone like Polanco or Gordon 1-2 years down the road makes more sense to me.

 

 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I see almost no chance Gordon is dealt, not w/o some awesome return. Stewart? Sure, I could see that.

Yeah the only we trade Gordon is if Escobar continues to hit consistently next year, and plays at least top 15 SS defense. If that happens and the Javier looks to be on an advanced path Gordon COULD be on the table in trade talks. That is just a lot to gamble on. Even if Escobar looks good next year, could we feel confident that he could continue to be a valuable SS for the next 4-5 years, in which time Javier might be ready to step in at 20/21? Yes, that is young, but MI's can step in earlier and add value with their gloves and athletic ability still. 

 

Anyway, I doubt we trade ANY MI's at all.  I bet we keep all of them, just because they are hard to fine good ones. We also need to consider that we are likely placing way way too much consideration in Dozier's play from the last two years, and even with that, he was bottom 1/3 of the league for 2B in the second half....where will he be in 2 years? He certainly isn't going to gain defensive value at this point, and he likely isn't going to gain power either. We could be looking at an epic drop off with him, if can't continue to pull the ball with power. The guy does hit a lot of just barely HR's. With that in mind, we should probably keep Escobar, Santana, Polanco, Gordon, and Javier.

 

Polando has high floor, but not a very high ceiling, Santana has a low floor but a high ceiling, Gordon has and average floor and a high ceiling, and Javier we have no clue on at this point. However, we are likely looking at replacing SS and 2B in the near future, so we shouldn't be looking to trade away chips where we have guys that are good now, but might not be the case in the near future. In my opinion, we will be needing a 2B just as much within 2 years. Yup, I think Dozier will be a negative WAR player by then. Just think the margins for error with him are not gradual, but steep. If he can't pull for power, he is a bad player, and we have seen this for long stretches of time.

 

In my opinion, we trade the guys with the most current value. With those guys that have current value, which ones are most likely to regress, and which ones have possible replacements that would be decent starters. I would say we look to sell high on one of our young OF's and Dozier. Now, I don't mean these guys aren't good, I am saying they ARE good and that's why we put them on the table. Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, and Kepler should all be possible trade chips and so should Dozier.

 

What are the odds that Rosario improves his approach and keeps up his BABIP? Trade him before he gets exposed for a whole season and loses value. Hicks had a great year, but still isn't valuable vs RHP's, especially if he is playing LF or RF, so we should consider selling high before he regresses or gets hurt again. Buxton still has some luster and hope left with him, but some are starting to question he ever meets #1 prospect expectations, if so see if we can get a frontline SP or stud position player in a major trade...we have young guys who can play his position already at least. Kepler had an amazing season in AA, but lots of guys have great AA or AAA seasons are not able to keep that up while climbing leagues. Odds are his value will never be even close to what it currently is right now. Just being realistic. He is at a position of strength, so it won't hurt as much. "Look" to trade one of these guys, but only for "equal" value, not for the sake of trading them. Same with Dozier, and I already explained the reasons for him above. 

 

If we hold all of Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, Kepler, and Dozier we will likely be looking at some of them just fading into the background of our team, or we sell low on them later and get scraps in return. Again, only do a trade with these guys IF we are able to get in return something that makes us all smile. Imagine what Dozeir and Buxton might get us in a trade, with us still having OF's in tact and 2B replacements.

[dxpavelka]

 

This was good, except the part about Escobar is just entirely wrong:

 

 

Wrong wrong wrong. Also, wrong.

That's the type of attitude that will most likely come back to haunt us a few years down the road when we realize that even if right not enough upside is there to roll too far with.  Even if Escobar is as good as many think he is, he's not better and probably not going to get better either.  Need to improve that position no matter how we go about it.

[sane]

"not enough upside is there to roll too far with"

How many people die with NO accomplishments and plenty of upside unused?

[nytwinsfan]

 

That's the type of attitude that will most likely come back to haunt us a few years down the road when we realize that even if right not enough upside is there to roll too far with.  Even if Escobar is as good as many think he is, he's not better and probably not going to get better either.  Need to improve that position no matter how we go about it.

 

Even if that is the case a few years down the road, a few years down the road we'll also have Gordon or Palacios almost ready, or we'll have Nolasco and Santana off the books and be in a position to sign a good or decent SS. There are much more urgent needs at catcher and relief pitching.

[Linus]

Even if that is the case a few years down the road, a few years down the road we'll also have Gordon or Palacios almost ready, or we'll have Nolasco and Santana off the books and be in a position to sign a good or decent SS. There are much more urgent needs at catcher and relief pitching.

This. The Twins at least have options at ss. Nothing behind the plate and little in the pen.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That's the type of attitude that will most likely come back to haunt us a few years down the road when we realize that even if right not enough upside is there to roll too far with.  Even if Escobar is as good as many think he is, he's not better and probably not going to get better either.  Need to improve that position no matter how we go about it.

 

He doesn't have to be.  He was a top 10 SS this season.  That said, he's 26.  He juts might get better.  I'm all for upgrades, SS isn't it.  You're just as (if not more so) likely to downgrade the position seeking an upgrade. 

[Thrylos]

 

Then go back in time, and don't sign Nolasco.

Mind...blown.

 

Nah.  Go back in time further and hand the manager's job to Molitor instead of Gardenhire in 2002. 

[Thrylos]

 

Polando has high floor, but not a very high ceiling, Santana has a low floor but a high ceiling

 

Have you checked the relative performances of Polanco and Santana?   Just out of curiosity.  

 

Polanco's worst season as a non-teenager, was 2015 when as a 21 year old he hit .288/.339/.386 in AA, AAA and the majors.  I'd say that his worst season, should be indicative of his floor.  So, I'd agree that it is high.  We have seen Santana's ceiling.  We have not seen Polanco's by any means.  I think that his floor is Brandon Crawford.  That is higher than Santana's ceiling...  How high Polanco's ceiling is, depends on how much power he develops.  We know that he will hit for average and will get on base.  Longevity aside, I see no reason that Polanco cannot have a Jeter-like career (even glove-wise.)   Of course, it is not a secret that I think that Polanco was a better prospect than Buxton about this time last year (and Sano was better than both.)

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Have you checked the relative performances of Polanco and Santana?   Just out of curiosity.  

 

Polanco's worst season as a non-teenager, was 2015 when as a 21 year old he hit .288/.339/.386 in AA, AAA and the majors.  I'd say that his worst season, should be indicative of his floor.  So, I'd agree that it is high.  We have seen Santana's ceiling.  We have not seen Polanco's by any means.  I think that his floor is Brandon Crawford.  That is higher than Santana's ceiling...  How high Polanco's ceiling is, depends on how much power he develops.  We know that he will hit for average and will get on base.  Longevity aside, I see no reason that Polanco cannot have a Jeter-like career (even glove-wise.)   Of course, it is not a secret that I think that Polanco was a better prospect than Buxton about this time last year (and Sano was better than both.)

 

I myself really like Polanco, and my comment on him having a fairly high floor, but a lower ceiling is mostly just my own opinion based on looking at ALL of his stats at different levels, his limited at bats, and what others scouts have said in the past year. This is not an insult of Polanco, as having a high floor means I think he can be an everyday asset, but that I just don't think he has much of a chance of being very spectacular.

 

But for context, I did a quick google search limited to the past year of comments on Polanco. Most of the evaluations came from Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and Fangraphs, but they are also the most respected resources outside of organizational scouts. Keep in mind, these comments are not really knocks on Polanco either, they just highlight the lack of ceiling....which is what I commented on. Most of these comments also said mostly positive things about Polanco and his bat and ability to likely play a decent 2B. For ease of reading and relevance, I only clipped the quotes to show that they also see limitations with him. This isn't to hide the positives said about him, as I admit that I like him, and so do they. I will give one final comment of my own at the end.

 

"...his approach makes no effort to hit for power, he should be able to continue to hit for average as he moves up. Lack of power will limit his ceiling, though he will collect some extra base hits to keep defense honest. If he stays at short stop he'll be a below average defender, but he should be able to handle second base and could be an above-average everyday player there if he can continue to hit over .300...."

 

-Jeff Moore scouting report '14

 

"....He's more steady than spectacular in all phases of the game, with above-average speed, developing gap power and solid bat-to-ball skills. Most scouts feel he is a little stretched at shortstop....."

 

-Baseball Prospectus Annual '15

 

"....while he's shown the ability to hit for average, his utter lack of power could limit him to a second-division profile....

 

-Craig Goldstein July 10th '15

 

 

"Overall Future Potential: Solid-average regular

Realistic Role: Average major leaguer

 

Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate; limited Double-A experience; hit tool will need to carry the profile.

 

.....second base is the likely home at the major-league level. There’s a utility floor in the profile, with the translation of the hit tool as the leading factor to achieving status as a regular."

 

-Chris Mellen BP Top Ten Twins Prospects

 

"I often cover Twins backfields in Spring and saw a him a few times the last few years. Didn't do a lot for me. Some bat speed, but not much power and best fit is 2B. Didn't see a carry tool... I think he may start for a couple years here and there, but best as a utility guy on a good team. Lot of Twins prospect I'd take before Polanco."

 

-Al Skorupa

 

"....there are obvious limitations to his overall game."

 

-J.P. Breen

 

"...Polanco is easy to like as you can project all five tools to be at least average, though his line drive hitting approach may not get to all his raw power...."

 

-Kiley McDaniel

 

"In terms of the Top 100 field, I think Jorge Polanco is underrated because he’s not flashy, but he has the raw tools to be an impact second baseman."

 

-Matt Eddy Baseball America

 

In reading an article about players who have good BB/K ratios in the minor leagues, they excluded players that have a K% higher than 20% and players with an ISO lower than .100 because the simple fact that they will face much much better pitching when they move up to the MLB. Players that hit for no power will be faced with a heavy dose of strikes they are not feared at all, so these types of minor leaguers BB% usually plummet in the MLB. 

 

I personally feel that Polanco will be fed fastballs non stop due to his lack of power that is well documented. This in turn will lead to a low BB%, and he will have to rely on his bat to be valuable. I don't mind guys that don't have a high OBP, BUT they damn well better be hitting for power then (high SLG/ISO) Kinda like Rosario, Dozeir, and Hunter this year. Once the OBP isn't there, you had better offer power or ELITE glove to make up for not getting on base. This is where my concern is. I could care less if you are hitting .280, if you are only getting on base at a .290-.315 range, and slugging in the .300's. That is an empty AVG and nothing more. This is my fear. 

 

 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

I personally feel that Polanco will be fed fastballs non stop due to his lack of power that is well documented. ... I could care less if you are hitting .280

If you think .280 would be the outcome of non stop fastballs to him, then your opinion of Polanco's hit tool isn't very high after all. Nick Punto or (heaven help us) Drew Butera might even achieve that.

 

I do agree with your scenario if .280 is all he can muster.

 

If instead it's more like a professional hitter and is .350 (fastballs only, remember), then the pitchers will adjust, the batter will adjust, and we'll be back to a more interesting mix of walks.

 

Add in some scouts' projection of decent power, and the pitchers have to adjust some more, and, well, there ya go. 

 

I don't want Polanco force-fed at the MLB level in 2016. But if he forces his way up from AAA, mid-season, or waits until 2017, I think he can be pretty good. The jury is still (a little bit) out on whether he can improve his throwing to keep a SS job, with probably a majority opinion by now that he can't, but he might arrive just in time to replace a fading or (one would hope) traded Dozier at second.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

If you think .280 would be the outcome of non stop fastballs to him, then your opinion of Polanco's hit tool isn't very high after all. Nick Punto or (heaven help us) Drew Butera might even achieve that.

 

I do agree with your scenario if .280 is all he can muster.

 

If instead it's more like a professional hitter and is .350 (fastballs only, remember), then the pitchers will adjust, the batter will adjust, and we'll be back to a more interesting mix of walks.

 

Add in some scouts' projection of decent power, and the pitchers have to adjust some more, and, well, there ya go. 

 

I don't want Polanco force-fed at the MLB level in 2016. But if he forces his way up from AAA, mid-season, or waits until 2017, I think he can be pretty good. The jury is still (a little bit) out on whether he can improve his throwing to keep a SS job, with probably a majority opinion by now that he can't, but he might arrive just in time to replace a fading or (one would hope) traded Dozier at second.

Sorry my bad, I intended to write being fed strikes in general, not just "fastballs." Only 20 qualified hitters hit .300 or above this past year, and of players with at least 300 PA's there were only 28, including 3 ex-Twins in Colabello, Revere, and Pierzynski. 

 

in 700+ PA's in the upper levels (AA and higher) he has .287 AVG and a well bellow .100 ISO. Sure, Iknow he's young, but that can be an easy defense at times. By the end of the year there was at least 7 SS 22 or younger that were serving as their teams starter, and a handful of 2B, add in another handful that were getting their feet wet for next year. You can be young and successful and play up the middle, as they are often carried by their athleticism. Athletic-based smaller guys up the middle can often reach their potentials early and only improve marginally going forward, if they lack power. You do not just continually improve in every category over time...that is a myth and it can often go in the other direction actually, if the game you rely on does not correlate to MLB success. 

 

I think Polanco can be successful at 2B, and possibly even okay at SS for a time, as defense can sometimes be tricky to predict. I just don't see him likely turning into a player that is top half of the league of his position very often. He might strike hot and have his AVG carry him some years, but when it doesn't he could really struggle......unless, he does develop power. It could happen, just can't count on that happening and not many believe it will. 

[sane]

If you think .280 would be the outcome of non stop fastballs to him, then your opinion of Polanco's hit tool isn't very high after all. Nick Punto or (heaven help us) Drew Butera might even achieve that.

 

I do agree with your scenario if .280 is all he can muster.

Only ONE Twins player,with more than 10 AB, hit above .280 in 2015.

Eduardo Nunez hit .282.

So don't talk bleep about any .280 hitter.

.280 is the NEW .350.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Also, Escobar did it this year with a .301 BABIP as opposed to Santana's .405 last year.

I'm not 100% sure I understand your point.

 

I've looked around and found their BABIP's broken down by position.  Escobar this year had a .333 BABIP in 270 PA as a shortstop.  D. Santana in 2014, had a BABIP of .400 in 134 PA's at SS and a BABIP of .391 in 283 PA's in, what I believe to be his best position, CF.  And his overall numbers are better in CF

 

I'm just saying playing consistently at one position leads to better performance at the plate.

[ashbury]

Only ONE Twins player,with more than 10 AB, hit above .280 in 2015.

Eduardo Nunez hit .282.

So don't talk bleep about any .280 hitter.

.280 is the NEW .350.

.280 is a fine result in real-world baseball.

 

I was talking about a rookie hypothetically being disrespected and thrown nothing but pitches over the plate, fastballs in fact. You would think the league would have a lot more .300 hitters if that was the style, and I believe Polanco in particular would take advantage. That was all I was saying. And Ben has in the meantime clarified a bit, so I was hitting at somewhat of a strawman it turns out, although he and I continue to differ on what Polanco's ceiling looks like at age 21.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

.280 is a fine result in real-world baseball.

 

I was talking about a rookie hypothetically being disrespected and thrown nothing but pitches over the plate, fastballs in fact. You would think the league would have a lot more .300 hitters if that was the style, and I believe Polanco in particular would take advantage. That was all I was saying. And Ben has in the meantime clarified a bit, so I was hitting at somewhat of a strawman it turns out, although he and I continue to differ on what Polanco's ceiling looks like at age 21.

I assumed that, and corrected what I meant for you. I just added the overall batting averages because that is the type of game Polanco would be relying on. Basically, I was saying that he isn't a lock to hit for .300, and without walking as much due to being thrown ALL types of pitches for strikes, that he might just carry an empty batting average.

[jokin]

 

Desmond's AVG, OBP, SLG and UZR have decreased each of the past three seasons.  This doesn't look like a one year blip, it looks like a trend.   I also wouldn't want to give a declining offensive and defensive shortstop a short term deal considering he's going to cost the Twins a first round draft pick.

 

 

 

What trend? What declining? I'm not seeing it. This is the kind of "Oh Well"... "wait-til-next-year" "Let's just stick with our own internal solution" thinking that has kept Terry from making a serious run at the World Series.

 

First off, consider this:

 

Desmond career slash:        .264/.312/.424/.736  OPS+ 99

Desmond 2nd half of 2015: .262/.331/.446/.777  OPS+ 111

 

That OPS+ of 111 is better or comparable to any season he played except one. OBP of .331 is comparable or better than any single season.

 

Then consider this:

 

Desmond's DRS is trending up, not down over the last 6 seasons.

His RF/G has remained steady over the same time frame.

In 2015, Desmond's RF/9 is 4.26, Escobar's is 4.06.

Career-wise, Desmond has made 57.7% of "50-50" plays/ 34.7% of "Unlikely" plays/ and 6.0% of "Remote" plays.

In 2015, his numbers were 75% of "50-50" plays/ 33.3% of "Unlikely" plays/ and 7.7% of "Remote" plays.

 

By these fielding measures, he's demonstrably improved at the position, not trended down.

 

Here's Escobar's comps, they're clearly not in the same universe as Desmond:

 

Career: "50-50" plays- 18.2% "Unlikely" 0.0% "Remote" 0.0%

2015:   "50-50" plays- 33.3% "Unlikely" 0.0% "Remote" 0.0%

 

 

Desmond's demonstrably not washed up, far from it. This is what a really good SS does for his team.  And getting away from the Washington craziness might be just the ticket for him to take it to a new level.

 

The lost Twins 1st round pick is no longer a top 5-6 pick as it has been the last 4 years, and it will likely be more than recouped at the other end of Free Agency when:

 

1)Desmond's contract expires in one or two years- most likely getting back the 1st round pick- or if you flip him at the deadline, you would shoot for a Top 100 prospect- only now, getting a top prospect further along the developmental track than one taken in the draft, and furthermore,

 

2) You could also recoup the lost pick in 2016 by bidding high in 2nd round or later on a 2016 college commit.

 

3) And also- through acquiring additional international slot money via the trades that are inevitably coming soon, if Terry would ever decide to start getting a little bit more creative.  

 

4) In the meantime, you'd have a premier SS in Desmond  who will provide sorely needed veteran leadership in the infield playing next to Sano, and who has proven that, unlike Escobar, he can play the position at an elite level on an every-day basis (he simultaneously takes some pressure off of Dozier to provide all of the leadership- and at the same time- puts some peer pressure on Dozier to live up to Desmond's standards for a full season and finally nip his 2nd half swoons in the bud), and finally, Desmond is highly incentivized to perform for his looming next contract- and a

 

5) "Desmond-Dozier keystone combo" has a nice ring to it, and,

 

 6) In Escobar, you'd still have a premier utility man to still get his 400 PAs while capably spelling the SS, 2B and 3B positions on an ongoing basis- keeping everyone fresh in the infield without a big drop-off.

 

 

 

This seems like a no-brainer to me if the Twins are really serious about trying to make a run in 2016, there are really no excuses why they shouldn't make a serious run.  They can more than afford to sign Desmond and acquire a Catcher and a Bat- they should have Nolasco, Plouffe and Hunter going off of the books.