Souhan's solution to the "Mauer Problem"

[spinowner]

 

The Twins painted themselves in a corner with respect to Mauer ever playing Catcher again.

I wouldn't put it that way. I think those involved with the decision (player, on-field management, front office management and physicians) all concluded that he should no longer catch. Permanently. Since there was no going back they started painting in the corner, finished the entire floor, walked out the door and locked it.

[stringer bell]

While I think Mauer's resume should give him the starting job at first out of spring training, it isn't fair or right for him to be guaranteed playing time because of what he was. If, for the third straight season, Mauer doesn't hit anything like the Mauer we knew, he could be a part-time player despite his contract.

[spinowner]

 

To me, the most annoying thing about the "Mauer problem" is where he hits in the lineup.

I agree. When you make out the lineup you don't look at where players batted in the lineup last year or ten years ago, you don't look at where they play defensively and you don't look at their salaries. You look at what type of hitters (and to some extent what type of base runners) you have to work with and try to maximize your run-scoring potential. Looking at the Twins' roster it would seem to me that Mauer probably fits best as a 1,2 or 9 most of the time. Players' performances can change day to day and year to year and the lineup should change along with that.

[sane]

"To me, the most annoying thing about the "Mauer problem" is where he hits in the lineup"

 

To me the problem is how often he IS in the lineup, taking PA's away from the kids who will be re-energizing the franchise and need the experience to dvelop.

[ken]

 

I thought it was hilarious he ripped on Mauer's defense at all.

? - according to Fangraphs among qualifed 1B, Mauer was 13th out of 21 players in fielding.  Torii Hunter was 7th out of 18 RF and everyone says he a horrible fielder.

[HitInAPinch]

ssshhhhh.....  Joe Mauer is just 2 seasons removed from a .324 BA........

[Shane Wahl]

What an absolute joke of a proposal. Good god. I am leaving before going off on Souhan.

[Shaitan]

I'm just surprised that baseball fans read Souhan.

[DaveW]

 

I'm just surprised that humans read Souhan.

FIFY

[TheLeviathan]

 

How does that translate to replacing Plouffe? who also plays at least adequate defense.

Playing Mauer seldom, Kepler at 1B, Sano at 3B, and Plouffe at 1B, 3B, DH makes sense to me, until someone else (Vargas, Walker, Arcia) shows that they can replace Plouffe offensively. AT THAT time, maybe Plouffe becomes replaceable.

 

Plouffe will have to be replaced in two years regardless unless the Twins make a stupid decision to resign him.

 

And, honestly, I think the idea of Mauer being a part-time player is barely more reasonable than Souhan's suggestion.  With his contract and stature, he'll be a full-time player so long is he is on this team. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Two things:

 

First, has anyone done a comparison of Mauer's performance during the course of his long term contract against other similar contracts.  Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano and Prince Fielder come to mind as interesting comparisons.   All have missed time due to injury and/or performed below previous levels. Fielder is also an example of a player that has bounced back from injury.   

 

I think people need to get past that a long term contract should equate to a specific level of performance moving forward. 

 

Second, I really think that Plouffe is the odd man out.  Sano and Plouffe both deserve to start every day at 3B.  So while I originally thought that the Twins should find a place for Plouffe, I think Sano's potential to be a truly game changing talent has changed the equation.  The result is that the team moves Plouffe, commits to Sano at third, keeps Joe at first and finds an option(s) at DH among Vargas, Arcia, Hunter or free agency.  

[KGB]

We need to stop trying to make room to keep Plouffe.  He's got two years left with this team unless we're insane enough to give a multi-year deal to a 32 year old league average player.

Especially when we already have a below average 32 year old locked up for the next 3 years

[Kwak]

Moving Mauer to bat in another spot isn't going to improve his hitting.  Smugly saying "fixed" hasn't "fixed" anything.  Dozier isn't a leadoff hitter--he flourished early in the season when he was considered a prototypical leadoff batter, taking pitches, hitting to RF and CF.  After the league "wised-up" that he was a dead-pull hitter looking to hit the ball over or off the LF fence, he was pitched differently--away, away and away. he ended the season as a .236 hitter and the HRs were reduced.  Dozier isn't a leadoff hitter.  Mauer might succeed there, but he has little speed.  Moving Sano to bat 3rd, means there is no legitimate clean-up hitter.  The problem is complex.  True, if Mauer returned to a .300 hitter he would be OK at #3 (he won't!) but the Twins still lack a legitimate #1 hitter, and are in dire need of a second HR hitter.  Until that problem is fixed rearranging the chairs is pointless.

[sane]

 

Moving Mauer to bat in another spot isn't going to improve his hitting.  Smugly saying "fixed" hasn't "fixed" anything.  Dozier isn't a leadoff hitter--he flourished early in the season when he was considered a prototypical leadoff batter, taking pitches, hitting to RF and CF.  After the league "wised-up" that he was a dead-pull hitter looking to hit the ball over or off the LF fence, he was pitched differently--away, away and away. he ended the season as a .236 hitter and the HRs were reduced.  Dozier isn't a leadoff hitter.  Mauer might succeed there, but he has little speed.  Moving Sano to bat 3rd, means there is no legitimate clean-up hitter.  The problem is complex.  True, if Mauer returned to a .300 hitter he would be OK at #3 (he won't!) but the Twins still lack a legitimate #1 hitter, and are in dire need of a second HR hitter.  Until that problem is fixed rearranging the chairs is pointless.

Unless Mauer spends more time on a "chair".

[Platoon]

Unless Mauer spends more time on a "chair".

It doesn't solve the problem. He is here and will be for 3 more years. He hits too well to sit, but not enough to be in the middle of the order. The Twins need a LH power bat for the middle of the order. They need a catcher, and they better hope one of their young OF becomes a legitimate one hitter. Those are the realities Ryan has to deal with. (I won't go into pitching) If he doesn't, then the league is just going to have to create another WC berth for us!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Two things:

 

First, has anyone done a comparison of Mauer's performance during the course of his long term contract against other similar contracts.  Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano and Prince Fielder come to mind as interesting comparisons.   All have missed time due to injury and/or performed below previous levels. Fielder is also an example of a player that has bounced back from injury.   

 

I think people need to get past that a long term contract should equate to a specific level of performance moving forward. 

 

Second, I really think that Plouffe is the odd man out.  Sano and Plouffe both deserve to start every day at 3B.  So while I originally thought that the Twins should find a place for Plouffe, I think Sano's potential to be a truly game changing talent has changed the equation.  The result is that the team moves Plouffe, commits to Sano at third, keeps Joe at first and finds an option(s) at DH among Vargas, Arcia, Hunter or free agency.  

I see your point, but only Hamilton belongs in that group you put Mauer in. Fielder and Cano have actually been really healthy in their careers and sustained the their offensive output better than Joe has. To your second point about Plouffe, I agree.

 

[Thrylos]

2015 Twins:

 

14/15 in AL in Hits, 14/15 in BA, 15/15 in OBP, 13/15 in OPS.

 

methinks that data suggest that the problem is more generalized than Mauer...  Getting rid of the last 2 coaches from the Gardenhire regime, might be a better solution to the problem

[ken]

 

He hits too well to sit, but not enough to be in the middle of the order. 

He a below average hitter (wRC+ was 94) and the only 2 position you can play him at are first and DH.  Don't you think a team trying to get to the playoff should shoot for higher production from these offensive positions?  Hitting like a utility infielder in offensive spots is not beneficial.

 

His contract is guaranteed but if you want to win, his playing time should not be.

[stringer bell]

 

2015 Twins:

 

14/15 in AL in Hits, 14/15 in BA, 15/15 in OBP, 13/15 in OPS.

 

methinks that data suggest that the problem is more generalized than Mauer...  Getting rid of the last 2 coaches from the Gardenhire regime, might be a better solution to the problem

Offense wasn't good in '15. However the same batting coach was around in 2014, when the Twins were 5th in hits, runs, 7th in BA, 2nd in OBP, and 5th in OPS.

[sane]

 

It doesn't solve the problem. He is here and will be for 3 more years. He hits too well to sit, but not enough to be in the middle of the order. The Twins need a LH power bat for the middle of the order. They need a catcher, and they better hope one of their young OF becomes a legitimate one hitter. Those are the realities Ryan has to deal with. (I won't go into pitching) If he doesn't, then the league is just going to have to create another WC berth for us!

If Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, and either Plouffe or Vargas all hit better than Mauer, then Mauer should sit. Neither Mauer (nor any of the above) can replace a middle infielder or catcher, but OF and corner IF can potentially be upgraded by benching Mauer.

[old nurse]

Souhan once again has thrown some mud out there and people respomd. Good creativity on Souhan's part.

 

[jimmer]

 

I'm just surprised that baseball fans read Souhan.

I know of few that take him seriously.

[jimmer]

 

? - according to Fangraphs among qualifed 1B, Mauer was 13th out of 21 players in fielding.  Torii Hunter was 7th out of 18 RF and everyone says he a horrible fielder.

Mauer's UZR this year was 0.7 and last year it was 1.5.  Hunter's UZR this year was 0.3 and last year was -18.3.   Mauer's DRS was 0.0 this year and +4 last year. Hunter's DRS this year was -8 and last year it was -18.  Notice Mauer doesn't have any negative UZR or DRS marks in the two year span?

 

And Mauer hasn't been playing 1B for his whole career, Hunter has been an OF for about 23 professional seasons.  And if we want to make allowances for Hunter's age, should also make allowances for the fairly new move to 1B by Mauer.

 

Shouldn't act as if Mauer has been Pedro Alvarez out there :-)

[glunn]

Moderator note -- too much bickering in this thread.

 

Obviously, there are some strong disagreements here.  Please focus on facts and refrain from characterizing other people's positions as silly.  

[ken]

 

Mauer's UZR this year was 0.7 and last year it was 1.5.  Hunter's UZR this year was 0.3 and last year was -18.3.   Mauer's DRS was 0.0 this year and +4 last year. Hunter's DRS this year was -8 and last year it was -18.  Notice Mauer doesn't have any negative UZR or DRS marks in the two year span?

 

And Mauer hasn't been playing 1B for his whole career, Hunter has been an OF for about 23 professional seasons.  And if we want to make allowances for Hunter's age, should also make allowances for the fairly new move to 1B by Mauer.

 

Shouldn't act as if Mauer has been Pedro Alvarez out there :-)

Fangraphs ranking include UZR & DRS in the ranking.  You wouldn't want to rank hitting by one stat like RBI.  Mauer is better than Alvarez. but being better than the worst shouldn't eliminate questions about him defense,

 

The first part in fixing a problem is recognizing you have one.  Being ranked in the bottom of your position should indicate a problem, especially at the age of 32.  And pointing that out doesn't make you a reporting hack or a Mauer hater. The predictions that Mauer would rebound in 2015 were wrong and the fall in 2014 was very unexpected, so now going into 2016 and expecting him to rebound seems to be unlikely.  Time for a team looking to be a playoff team to have options that don't include Mauer in the everyday lineup in case the trend continues.  That's just life in the big leagues.

[bird]

 

I think it is pretty unfair to imply that anyone that questions Mauer's value expects him to be god like to be of value to the team.

 

Yes, and it's not silly or bashing Mauer to suggest that he's sub-par among his 1B peers, or that the Twins have better alternatives for regular duty, or that perhaps Mauer serves the team better as a backup 1B, backup DH, and pinch hitter.

 

But it IS tiresome to read post after post suggesting a move back to catcher. Sheesh.

[jimmer]

 

Fangraphs ranking include UZR & DRS in the ranking.  

No it doesn't.  The overall Def stat uses UZR and positional adjustments.  It doesn't use DRS at all.

 

'Calculation:

 

The equation for Def on FanGraphs is below:

 

Def = Fielding Runs Above Average + positional adjustment

 

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is the defensive metric used in our WAR calculations to measuring fielding runs above average relative to the average player at that position. If you wanted to use Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) or any other related metric, you could do so manually, but our Def calculations use UZR for all years since 2003.'

 

And my point is, if you want to talk about how bad a fielder is, he should rank in the negative in UZR or DRS and Mauer hasn't done that in either category in the last two years.  There are better defensive 1Bs obviously, especially ones who have played the position for quite some time, but there are quite a few worse as well.  To say he's been horrible defensively by how he's actually performed?  No.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

I see your point, but only Hamilton belongs in that group you put Mauer in. Fielder and Cano have actually been really healthy in their careers and sustained the their offensive output better than Joe has. To your second point about Plouffe, I agree.

 

While I agree that the others have been healthy during their careers, I am referring to their performance during the long term contracts.   Fielder lost an entire year off his contract and did not have an outstanding run, compared to his years with the Brewers, with the Tigers.  Cano has been hobbled this year and has performed well below his numbers in New York. 

 

My point is that more money, does not equate with better or even equal performance.   I would argue that the true measure is consistency and value over the term of the contract.  

 

Joe, while no longer a superstar, provides real value to the club. We can argue whether he provides 23M a year in value, but he is a veteran bat that ML pitchers can not take for granted. When the team had runners in scoring position this year, he was among some of the best in the game.

 

[ken]

 

No it doesn't.  The overall Def stat uses UZR and positional adjustments.  It doesn't use DRS at all.

 

'Calculation:

 

The equation for Def on FanGraphs is below:

 

Def = Fielding Runs Above Average + positional adjustment

 

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is the defensive metric used in our WAR calculations to measuring fielding runs above average relative to the average player at that position. If you wanted to use Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) or any other related metric, you could do so manually, but our Def calculations use UZR for all years since 2003.'

 

And my point is, if you want to talk about how bad a fielder is, he should rank in the negative in UZR or DRS and Mauer hasn't done that in either category in the last two years.  There are better defensive 1Bs obviously, especially ones who have played the position for quite some time, but there are quite a few worse as well.  To say he's been horrible defensively by how he's actually performed?  No.

Defense (Def) is the combination of two important factors of defensive performance: value relative to positional average (fielding runs) and positional value relative to other positions (positional adjustment). In order to properly evaluate a player’s defensive value, you need to know both factors and adding them together and providing it on the site saves you a bit of legwork.

Def is a useful statistic to consider because saving a run in left field is easier than saving a run at second base because the average baseline of performance is much lower. If you were to just look at fielding runs, you would be underrating defenders at more difficult and important positions. There’s no reason why you can’t look at the two components separately, but we offer the option to simply use Def to make comparisons among different position players easier.

Why Def:

There is no reason why you should use Def instead of looking at fielding runs and the positional adjustment separately, but if you want a single measure of overall defensive value, our Def stat does the trick. The important thing to remember is that all of the leading defensive metrics (UZR, DRS, TZ, etc) are presented relative to the average defender at that position. This means that a +10 defender in left field is 10 runs better than the average fielder in left field. A +10 defender at shortstop is 10 runs better than the average shortstop. These are not equal because the average shortstop is a better defender.

 

My understanding is it gives a comparison between position based on the above descriptions.  So with Hunter being a -5.0 and Mauer being a -9.5, Hunter has a higher defensive value.  Is that not correct?

So it's hard to rip Hunter for his defense and defend Mauer for his defense.

[jimmer]

 

Defense (Def) is the combination of two important factors of defensive performance: value relative to positional average (fielding runs) and positional value relative to other positions (positional adjustment). In order to properly evaluate a player’s defensive value, you need to know both factors and adding them together and providing it on the site saves you a bit of legwork.

Def is a useful statistic to consider because saving a run in left field is easier than saving a run at second base because the average baseline of performance is much lower. If you were to just look at fielding runs, you would be underrating defenders at more difficult and important positions. There’s no reason why you can’t look at the two components separately, but we offer the option to simply use Def to make comparisons among different position players easier.

Why Def:

There is no reason why you should use Def instead of looking at fielding runs and the positional adjustment separately, but if you want a single measure of overall defensive value, our Def stat does the trick. The important thing to remember is that all of the leading defensive metrics (UZR, DRS, TZ, etc) are presented relative to the average defender at that position. This means that a +10 defender in left field is 10 runs better than the average fielder in left field. A +10 defender at shortstop is 10 runs better than the average shortstop. These are not equal because the average shortstop is a better defender.

 

My understanding is it gives a comparison between position based on the above descriptions.  So with Hunter being a -5.0 and Mauer being a -9.5, Hunter has a higher defensive value.  Is that not correct?

So it's hard to rip Hunter for his defense and defend Mauer for his defense.

If you want to discount DRS completely (as the stat you quote does in it's calculation), but people high up the Fangraphs staff (like Cameron) says both UZR and DRS need to be looked at.  In fact, what the Fangraphs site says about DRS is: 

 

'Run value defensive stats like DRS provide you with the best estimate of defensive value currently available  and allow you to estimate how much a player’s defense has helped his team win.'

 

and 

 

'Total Defensive Runs Saved indicates how many runs a player saved or hurt his team in the field compared to the average player at his position. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) captures a player’s total defensive value.

 

and

 

'Defensive Runs Saved uses a rolling one-year basis for the Plus/Minus system, while UZR uses several years of data to determine each play’s difficulty level.

 

Those above are just some reasons why I prefer DRS to UZR and why I quote that stat WAY more than UZR (and why I never quote DEF which excludes DRS).

 

In any event, we don't agree.   I don't believe a player who hasn't been below zero inn either UZR or DRS for the last couple years is a bad defender relative to his position. Especially when zero is average for the position in both stats according to explanations of the stats on Fangraphs. For me, that makes it hard to say he's below average at his position when he hasn't been below zero (considered average) at either stat in the last two years and because to be considered a below average player, you need to hit -5 according to both stat explanation. You apparently disagree.  I'm okay with that.

 

As far as your last paragraph, did you notice there were no 1Bs with a positive Def?  Even Belt and his 8.6 UZR?  Before the season even starts, 1Bs have a good size negative number because that is what positional adjustment assigned to 1B. Do you believe there isn't even one 1B who provides positive value to his team?