Molitor: ..... Hunter MVP consideration!

[DaveW]

 

I'm going to go with the idea that this was a handshake agreement between Hunter and the Twins to boost his value this offseason... 

Terry Ryan: "Well Torii we'd love to bring you back on a two year deal, but you are coming off a combined 0.9 WAR in your last two seasons, we'd be more then happy to bring you back on a ST invite and if you make the roster we will give you one year/5 mil guaranteed,"

Hunters agent: "Have you not seen this article? Hunter performed at an MVP level last year, we need 2 years, 22 mil"

 

Ryan: "You make a good point, deal!"

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sounds to me like people are worried that he would be used as an every day guy and that just seems a little bit odd to me to think that way.

Huh?  It seems odd to me to assume that they would ask him to accept (and that he would accept) a bench role for the first time ever.  Could happen, but there doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest it yet.  The more likely scenario right now is re-signing him to start in RF again.

[Dr. Evil]

 

Huh?  It seems odd to me to assume that they would ask him to accept (and that he would accept) a bench role for the first time ever.  Could happen, but there doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest it yet.  The more likely scenario right now is re-signing him to start in RF again.

I think he will be realistic about it. He knows he will be 41 and that he in no way can play the outfield like Rosario/Hicks/Buxton. I think he stays home in Minnesota and accepts a role as DH/pinch hitter/occasional outfielder/mentor. I hope so anyway. But, we'll see I guess.

[ken]

It’s understandable for Molitor to value a leader like Torii in the lock room.  A Manager needs player leadership to help create the culture he wants and it seems like Molitor really values Hunter in that respect.  You can’t complain about the results, the team has contended all year with few players at a level would want to see next year.  I think we sometime undervalue the non-statistical contributes players make.

The fangraph valuation of players is interesting but not very realistic.  Here’s an interesting one – Nolasco’s 32 innings are worth $7.3 million and Mauer’s 153 games are worth only $3 million.  Given Hunter’s production this year, I do think he is going to get offers around $10 next year.

[jimmer]

I just threw up a little in my mouth.  And yet, why am I also not surprised by Molitor saying this stuff? And as far as whether or not Hunter comes back, I've been saying for quite some time that the Twins will bring him back.

 

[jimmer]

Twins lose 92 or more games 4 years in a row.

 

Twins sign Hunter and they are in playoff contention most of the year and have a winning season for the first time in 5 years.

 

Ergo, because the Twins signed Hunter, the Twins are in playoff contention most of the year and have a winning season for the first time in 5 seasons.

 

There's a name for this kind of reasoning.

 

Seems plenty of people are just accepting that Hunter was the difference as if it was fact. 

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

Twins lose 92 or more games 4 years in a row.

 

Twins sign Hunter and they are in playoff contention most of the year and have a winning season for the first time in 5 years.

 

Ergo, because the Twins signed Hunter, the Twins are in playoff contention most of the year and have a winning season for the first time in 5 seasons.

 

There's a name for this kind of reasoning.

 

Seems plenty of people are just accepting that Hunter was the difference as if it was fact. 

Mostly what I see are people refusing to admit they might have been wrong, and Hunter has been one reason among several they are improved.

 

In fact, I haven't seen one single post where anyone claimed Hunter was the difference.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think he will be realistic about it. He knows he will be 41 and that he in no way can play the outfield like Rosario/Hicks/Buxton. I think he stays home in Minnesota and accepts a role as DH/pinch hitter/occasional outfielder/mentor. I hope so anyway. But, we'll see I guess.

Professional athletes in general are not known to be "realistic" about such things.  And Minnesota isn't really Hunter's "home" either, it's a team that he came up with and returned to but I honestly don't know how interested he would be in a major career change (either part time player or coach) to stay here.

[Mike Sixel]

I have admitted over and over he might be one of the causes. But to say he's the primary reason (team MVP), and that he somehow helped them develop the number 2 prospect in baseball, and that he added, what, 5+ wins?

 

If anyone in baseball thought that his leadership was worth 5+ wins, and that their superstar prospects would ALL be better players in the future, what would they pay for that? Imagine how valuable it would be to the Cubs if he helped their 4-6 rookie/2nd year players all be worth 1 more win a year.....that is worth, what, 50-60MM dollars, minimum?

[Mike Sixel]

We aren't discussing if he had value, we are discussing the belief by the manager and some fans that he is the MVP and they wouldn't be winning w/o him.

[gunnarthor]

I figure this is the most likely scenario for next year.  The Twins re-sign Hunter on another 1 year deal.  TD blows up.  Our starting OF is Rosario/Hicks/Hunter with Buxton and Kepler in AAA.  After six weeks, Ryan re-evaluates his line-up.  If Hunter is as bad as some expect, Buxton comes up at that time.  If Hunter is hot and Rosario hasn't regressed, Buxton might wait a bit longer.  Either way, Twins make the playoffs again.

 

Kepler comes up in Sept again.

 

I'm not overly concerned about Hunter.  He's nearing the end and everyone knows it.  Having him make the team out of ST doesn't necessarily block Buxton or Kepler since both could use some time in AAA and both could come up if Hunter struggles.  Arcia posted a .610 OPS in AAA this year so the Twins probably shouldn't count on him for much.

[Dr. Evil]

 

Professional athletes in general are not known to be "realistic" about such things.  And Minnesota isn't really Hunter's "home" either, it's a team that he came up with and returned to but I honestly don't know how interested he would be in a major career change (either part time player or coach) to stay here.

Yea, I don't know for sure either. I hope he realizes he will be 41 and accepts a somewhat lesser role. It wouldn't surprise me if he chose otherwise for exactly the reason you state. I'm thinking he might have a tough time finding a job as a full time outfielder. More likely, a full time DH. But, I could be wrong.

[jimmer]

Let's see, Molitor said '“I think guys have bought into the energy that he brings in. He’s probably been a big reason we’ve been resilient the way we have, so I don’t know if I can really quantify it. I just know that it’s made a vast difference.”

 

Then he says Hunter deserves AL MVP consideration.  Even goes so far as to compare Hunter to Gibson in his MVP season even though Gibsons's OPS was about 48 % higher than league average and Hunters is 9% below league average.

 

Sure seems to me that at least one person is certainly buying into the idea Hunter has been the main reason for the Twins being wild card contenders.  

 

And just because someone doesn't actually say something verbatim doesn't mean that their statements, when viewed as a whole, aren't saying the exact thing. Baseball talk isn't a court of law.

[gunnarthor]

 

I have admitted over and over he might be one of the causes. But to say he's the primary reason (team MVP), and that he somehow helped them develop the number 2 prospect in baseball, and that he added, what, 5+ wins?

If anyone in baseball thought that his leadership was worth 5+ wins, and that their superstar prospects would ALL be better players in the future, what would they pay for that? Imagine how valuable it would be to the Cubs if he helped their 4-6 rookie/2nd year players all be worth 1 more win a year.....that is worth, what, 50-60MM dollars, minimum?

Well, first, people aren't sure about these sort of measurements.  We're starting to hear about catch framing being worth 3-5 wins a year but catchers aren't getting raises yet.  Does that mean framing isn't worth 3-5 wins in some cases?  

 

Was Williams managing the reason the Nats under-performed this  year?  Was he worth 3-5 wins in the wrong direction?  Will his replacement be paid on the expected WAR upgrade?  Probably not.

 

I do think Hunter had a real impact on the clubhouse (and I recall you and I arguing about this in ST when you said we can all expect the Tigers to be worse b/c they let Hunter go).  I have no idea how much impact he had.  I think he had a ton of impact in May when he was hitting the snot out of the ball and maybe getting the young guys to believe that the Twins were a good team again.  "See that HR I hit?  See, we're ****ing good."  I expect that sort of machismo rubs off on the younger guys. I honestly think if he had hit like July in May and May in July, the Twins wouldn't have been nearly this good.  

 

I think if Molitor and Hicks and Buxton and Dozier have all said that his effects have been huge, I do think they are probably right.  I don't know if it's 5 wins as you suggest but it's probably more than 1, which is what fWAR says he gave us.  

[Mike Sixel]

Which of those young guys was here in May? Buxton, Rosario, Sano? Duffey? I think Danny Santana and Vargas and Arcia were......

[jbissell]

 

I'm gonna sit this one out. Warblers are migrating.

As are Sparrows, Flickers, and various raptors! ;-)

 

I think Molitor is just praising Hunter's influence on the rookies. 

[ken]

 

I have admitted over and over he might be one of the causes. But to say he's the primary reason (team MVP), and that he somehow helped them develop the number 2 prospect in baseball, and that he added, what, 5+ wins?

If anyone in baseball thought that his leadership was worth 5+ wins, and that their superstar prospects would ALL be better players in the future, what would they pay for that? Imagine how valuable it would be to the Cubs if he helped their 4-6 rookie/2nd year players all be worth 1 more win a year.....that is worth, what, 50-60MM dollars, minimum?

His leadership value will be different in each clubhouse.  If the Cubs feel they already have the leadership, it's not valuable to them.  Molitor believes it was valuable to the Twins.  The last 4 years, we have watch a team quit during the second half of the season and this year they sure had a lot of opportunities to do the same but something was different.  And from what Molitor says, he believe Hunter was a major reason for the difference.

 

If the Twins make the playoffs, it just might be worth $50-60 million for the team, they just didn't have to pay that - I bet tne Nationals wish they had some better leadership in their locker room.

[Mike Sixel]

the Cubs are, in that post, an example......are we saying this only worked for the Twins, and his leadership wouldn't translate to another team next year?

 

Look, I'm open to the argument, but make a logical argument to me to convince me.

 

If he's worthy of MLB MVP votes, if he's worth some huge number of wins, if he is why they went from awful to relevant, that has real economic value, and we should see teams lined up to sign him for big bucks. Does anyone not agree with that? Does anyone think that will happen?

[Shaitan]

 

Yea, I don't know for sure either. I hope he realizes he will be 41 and accepts a somewhat lesser role. It wouldn't surprise me if he chose otherwise for exactly the reason you state. I'm thinking he might have a tough time finding a job as a full time outfielder. More likely, a full time DH. But, I could be wrong.

 

He's only been playing 7 innings per game, 5 games a week all month. It would be hard for him not to see that.

[DaveW]

 

Was Williams managing the reason the Nats under-performed this  year?  Was he worth 3-5 wins in the wrong direction?  Will his replacement be paid on the expected WAR upgrade?  Probably not.

Honestly, Williams and his insanely bizzarre bunting and bullpen management definitely were worth 3 losses, probably more.

[jokin]

 

 

And no, Hunter should not be back.

 

This appears to be the opening orchestration by the organization to bringing Hunter back.

[gunnarthor]

 

Which of those young guys was here in May? Buxton, Rosario, Sano? Duffey? I think Danny Santana and Vargas and Arcia were......

Rosario and Hicks were both up, Arcia was on the DL.  

[gunnarthor]

 

the Cubs are, in that post, an example......are we saying this only worked for the Twins, and his leadership wouldn't translate to another team next year?

Look, I'm open to the argument, but make a logical argument to me to convince me.
 

There's no way to prove it, one way or another.  The arguments that Hunter had an impact on the team outside of what his statistics say (and however you want to measure them) are based on the idea that the FO brought him in here to improve the clubhouse, that the GM, manager, fellow vets and young rookies have all pointed out that he has had a huge impact on the Twins (as have the reporters covering the team and national reporters).  The manager of the team he left has openly said it was a big hit for the Tigers this year as they had to deal with adversity.  Angel fans still remember Hunter fondly for how he led the team after Arenhardt's untimely death.  They could all be lying or they could all be wrong.  But that's what you go on.

 

The argument against Hunter having an impact outside of what his statistics say (and however you want to measure them) are based on the idea that it doesn't exist, or it can't be measured or some teams aren't trying to sign leaders like Hunter (although, some are).  

[gunnarthor]

 

If he's worthy of MLB MVP votes, if he's worth some huge number of wins, if he is why they went from awful to relevant, that has real economic value, and we should see teams lined up to sign him for big bucks. Does anyone not agree with that? Does anyone think that will happen?

The Mets signed Cuddyer for his leadership ability, gave up a draft choice and gave him two years.  So, yes, I think Hunter will get a deal above what a 1 WAR player would normally get.  I expect that the Twins will be the ones that sign him but you will hear about other teams as well.

[Monkeypaws]

The big question is whether the Twins are better with or without him. This year the answer is pretty clearly yes.

 

Next year, I'd hate to see Oswaldo or Kepler have a monster spring and end up in AAA because of Torii.

 

No arguing the guy's charisma is just off the charts though, and I'd bet money it has had a positive effect that transcends advanced metrics.

[jimmer]

 

The big question is whether the Twins are better with or without him. This year the answer is pretty clearly yes.

 

Next year, I'd hate to see Oswaldo or Kepler have a monster spring and end up in AAA because of Torii.

 

No arguing the guy's charisma is just off the charts though, and I'd bet money it has had a positive effect that transcends advanced metrics.

He's been a 1 WAR (0.9 actually, but we'll round up) player, which is scrub level, so I'm not sure it's pretty clearly true the Twins are better with him.  The Twins have been better this year and and he's been on the team. That's all we know for sure. But he's not the only change. New manager, influx of rookies, some new pitching, etc.  Pointing to him as a huge reason as some have done because it's a good story (which local and national reporters love to push and some fans eat up) discards a very real possibility that any other player who would have provided scrub value or better, would have given us just as much (if not more) value.

 

I hope he takes that charisma, if that's what you want to call it, to ESPN next year.

[ken]

 

He's been a 1 WAR (0.9 actually, but we'll round up) player, which is scrub level, so I'm not sure it's pretty clearly true the Twins are better with him.  The Twins have been better this year and and he's been on the team. That's all we know for sure. But he's not the only change. New manager, influx of rookies, some new pitching, etc.  Pointing to him as a huge reason as some have done because it's a good story (which local and national reporters love to push and some fans eat up) discards a very real possibility that any other player who would have provided scrub value or better, would have given us just as much (if not more) value.

 

I hope he takes that charisma, if that's what you want to call it, to ESPN next year.

WAR doesn't actually relate to wins.  The Twins total WAR as a team will be higher in 2014 than 2015 but the Twins will win 10-15 more games.  I think the win total is more the indication the team is better than the WAR stats.

[jimmer]

 

WAR doesn't actually relate to wins.  

Not sure what the point is. I never said it did. Most years, for most teams, it's pretty close, but individual players' WAR can't account for team sequencing and such. People who do WAR don't say we should add all the players WAR together, along with replacement WAR level, and it will match the teams actual win-loss record.

 

The team is obviously playing above it's talent level, which I think everyone is happy about.  Doesn't really change what I said though.  My point was a player who performed just as Torii did, or better, would have been as valuable, or more valuable, and that a lot more has changed about this team from 2014 to 2015 than the addition of Hunter.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

People are getting way too caught up in Molitor's hyperbole.  All he (and several players) are saying is that Hunter has helped changed the team's mental approach to the game.

 

I doubt there are many Twins fans that have stayed tuned in the last few years that didn't notice that the team looked beat and defeated for long stretches of the season.

 

I was against signing Hunter (and very against resigning him) but I think he's brought more value with the bat, glove, and intangibles than I thought he could.  I think we can tip our cap to that effort, which is what it seems that Molitor is doing here.  He just went overboard in doing so.

[ken]

 

Not sure what the point is. I never said it did. Most years, for most teams, it's pretty close, but individual players' WAR can't account for team sequencing and such. People who do WAR don't say we should add all the players WAR together, along with replacement WAR level, and it will match the teams actual win-loss record.

 

The team is obviously playing above it's talent level, which I think everyone is happy about.  Doesn't really change what I said though.  My point was a player who performed just as Torii did, or better, would have been as valuable, or more valuable, and that a lot more has changed about this team from 2014 to 2015 than the addition of Hunter.

We agree that the team is playing above the talent level, why can't that be because of leadership?  To say players are the only as valuable as their WAR is really missing a lot in valuation of a player.  Like I said previously, do we really think Nolasco is 2 times more valuable than Mauer this year?