The Unloading of Ricky Nolasco's Contract

[RJM96]

Uhm yeah he's a bust. Of all the things that the Twins can do this offseason, this needs to be near the top of their list. The amount of talent he could be blocking is enormous, both in the rotation (Jose Berrios anyone?) and potentially the bullpen. Realistically, how can we get rid of him? Is some sort of a swap for James Shields (Austin Hedges?) one of our only options? What else do we have at this point?

[DocBauer]

We could just dump him and move on, hoping with absolutely no hope, that some desperate team would claim him and thus pick up his remaining contract.

 

But despite two disappointing seasons with our Twins, Nolasco does have value. His career numbers are solid. His best years are with better/winning teams. That may sound like an odd comment, but the ability to rise to the occassion is something not every player has. And he has been sturdy...up until his Twins tenure. But his injuries have been as nagging as they are unfortunate and they have not been debilitating. No torn up knees. No torn up arm. No blown back. There is every reason to believe that he will come in to next season healthy, ready to go, ready for 32 starts, 188-190 IP, 12-14 wins. All career norms.

 

But no-one is going to just take him off the Twins hands and pay his final two seasons, after the two he's had, and turn over a high quality player. More than likely, we are talking cash thrown in, possibly another decent prospect, and a limited return.

 

San Diego, to me, still sounds like a nice option, as long as you can involve another team to move Shields too. Dodgers? They have tons of money, and need pitching depth behind their big two.

[drock2190]

2 years left after this year right?

 

He will be in uniform next year, probably start. Injuries happen so him or another starter will probably be replaced by Berrios or Duffey.

 

I'm optimistic he can be an average pitcher again, if not I could see him cut halfway through the season. Eat the rest of the contract. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[Danchat]

Can Nolasco rebound back into the rotation? I don't think so, but maybe he could become a reliever. 

 

If not, I'd be OK if they unloaded his contract and got him off the roster. We need as many 40 man roster spots as we can get.

[Bark's Lounge]

I'm no expert at trades or anything like that, but maybe this can be a scenario the Twins could try with The Friars.

 

Nolasco, Burdi, Vargas or Arcia to the Pads for Craig Kimbrel.

 

Nolasco and Kimbrel are owed around the same amount of money remaining on their contracts.

 

Kimbrel is a 100% proven commodity. None of the guys we would be sending to the Pads are.

 

Even though Burdi struggled this year, I am sure every team in MLB would be thrilled to have him. He is essentially Kimbrel's replacement at some point in the near future.

 

It would not surprise me to see Nolasco bounce back pitching in the NL again and in Petco half of the time.

 

With the departure of J. Upton most certainly in the cards, the power of Vargas or Arcia would probably be something they would be needing and wanting. Yeah, they are both poor defenders - I guess that's all I have to say about that.

 

Although Kimbrel is the high end talent of this trade proposal, the Padres would be getting back two pieces that could figure into their very long term plans and Nolasco, who could certainly bounce back in a very positive way - pitching in the league he is comfortable with, playing in an extreme pitcher's park and being back home in Cali. It might motivate him?

 

If anyone is going to **** on me for this proposal, please warn me first so I can put on a HazMat Suit.

[spinowner]

Someone will need to confirm and/or expand on this, but I thought that if a player is DFA'd a team can claim him and pay only the major league minimum salary with the Twins being on the hook for the balance of what he's owed. The only way we'd be off the hook for his contract would be if he's traded.

[RJM96]

I'm no expert at trades or anything like that, but maybe this can be a scenario the Twins could try with The Friars.

 

Nolasco, Burdi, Vargas or Arcia to the Pads for Craig Kimbrel.

 

Nolasco and Kimbrel are owed around the same amount of money remaining on their contracts.

 

Kimbrel is a 100% proven commodity. None of the guys we would be sending to the Pads are.

 

Even though Burdi struggled this year, I am sure every team in MLB would be thrilled to have him. He is essentially Kimbrel's replacement at some point in the near future.

 

It would not surprise me to see Nolasco bounce back pitching in the NL again and in Petco half of the time.

 

With the departure of J. Upton most certainly in the cards, the power of Vargas or Arcia would probably be something they would be needing and wanting. Yeah, they are both poor defenders - I guess that's all I have to say about that.

 

Although Kimbrel is the high end talent of this trade proposal, the Padres would be getting back two pieces that could figure into their very long term plans and Nolasco, who could certainly bounce back in a very positive way - pitching in the league he is comfortable with, playing in an extreme pitcher's park and being back home in Cali. It might motivate him?

 

If anyone is going to **** on me for this proposal, please warn me first so I can put on a HazMat Suit.

Does anybody else love this idea?

[Thrylos]

Why exactly did Nolasco "stink"?  He led all Twins' starters in FIP (and winning percentage if one prefers Blylevenian metrics... )

[jimbo92107]

Assuming Nolasco comes back "healthy" next spring, I'd consider adding him to the bullpen as a middle reliever. The way he peppers the zone from different angles, he might be able to confuse hitters fairly reliably for one or two innings. Pitching fewer innings might keep him from breaking down again. 

 

Just trying to figure out how to get some value out of the guy. I wonder if he could be an Eddie Guardado type closer...

[DocBauer]

I'm no expert at trades or anything like that, but maybe this can be a scenario the Twins could try with The Friars.

 

Nolasco, Burdi, Vargas or Arcia to the Pads for Craig Kimbrel.

 

Nolasco and Kimbrel are owed around the same amount of money remaining on their contracts.

 

Kimbrel is a 100% proven commodity. None of the guys we would be sending to the Pads are.

 

Even though Burdi struggled this year, I am sure every team in MLB would be thrilled to have him. He is essentially Kimbrel's replacement at some point in the near future.

 

It would not surprise me to see Nolasco bounce back pitching in the NL again and in Petco half of the time.

 

With the departure of J. Upton most certainly in the cards, the power of Vargas or Arcia would probably be something they would be needing and wanting. Yeah, they are both poor defenders - I guess that's all I have to say about that.

 

Although Kimbrel is the high end talent of this trade proposal, the Padres would be getting back two pieces that could figure into their very long term plans and Nolasco, who could certainly bounce back in a very positive way - pitching in the league he is comfortable with, playing in an extreme pitcher's park and being back home in Cali. It might motivate him?

 

If anyone is going to **** on me for this proposal, please warn me first so I can put on a HazMat Suit.

Nothing wrong with your trade idea at all. But I think you still need a third team in there somewhere as the Padres wouldn't take on Nolasco, IMHO, unless getting rid of Shields somehow. I think they went all in, as a mistake, and would really, really like to find a way to get rid of Shields in whatever they do.

[Danchat]

 

Why exactly did Nolasco "stink"?  He led all Twins' starters in FIP (and winning percentage if one prefers Blylevenian metrics... )

You should take a look at Nolasco's career FIP vs his career ERA. He always underperfoms his FIP, nearly every season. FIP isn't a perfect stat.

[jorgenswest]

FIP and xFIP are good ERA estimators with a full season of stats.

 

I am very certain that they have no predictive meaning at Nolasco's sample this year. They don't even work as first half measure trying to predict second half stats.The reason they are valuable is they do a good job of predicting ERA at 200 innings. The various ERA predictors converge with ERA around 500 innings.

 

All that leads to this statement. Nolasco was a well below league average starting pitcher through his prime of 26-31. The sample is over 1000 innings. It is very rare that a pitcher with his prime career ERA+ (useful at that large sample) has valuable seasons age 32-35. Dennis Martinez is the only member of the club. It was a bad signing and he became untradeable the instant the Twins jumped in early and gave him a four year contract.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/

[Shaitan]

If the reason to trade him is because he's blocking talent, then how would trading him for another SP solve that problem?

 

I don't see it happening. I think he's a Pelfrey, and is likely to come back at least as well as Pelf did, meaning as a mediocre back end starter. I'm not writing the checks, so I have no problem with that.

[DaveW]

If the reason to trade him is because he's blocking talent, then how would trading him for another SP solve that problem?

 

I don't see it happening. I think he's a Pelfrey, and is likely to come back at least as well as Pelf did, meaning as a mediocre back end starter. I'm not writing the checks, so I have no problem with that.

because a guy like shields brings a ton more value to the rotation. It would then allow you to trade a guy like Milone or Gibson at that stage to open up a spot for berrios.

 

Shields

Santana

Hughes

Gibson

berrios

 

Not bad.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

Nothing wrong with your trade idea at all. But I think you still need a third team in there somewhere as the Padres wouldn't take on Nolasco, IMHO, unless getting rid of Shields somehow. I think they went all in, as a mistake, and would really, really like to find a way to get rid of Shields in whatever they do.

If you add in Shields that makes it a lot more complicated. If Shields and Kimbrel are attached at the hip to fix the mess the Friars made by signing Shields. A trade with the Twins is not probable - not that my earlier proposal was either by any stretch. In my humble opinion we need to open up starting spots for May, Berrios, maybe Duffy and by adding an elite relief pitcher, it affords you the opportunity to see if May can be a good starter. I would have been willing to add in Eades to my proposed deal or someone with a comparable prospect status.

[darin617]

I would not give him away for nothing. He supposedly has not been healthy the last couple of years and with our luck we dump him for a bag of chips and a flat soda he will rebound to his former form and be a good pitcher once again.

[DaveW]

I would not give him away for nothing. He supposedly has not been healthy the last couple of years and with our luck we dump him for a bag of chips and a flat soda he will rebound to his former form and be a good pitcher once again.

It's not like he is going to go all Liriano on us if he leaves, he might rebound, but even then you are looking at a #3/#4 guy at absolute best(which is actually a big problem with the signing in the first place)

 

A lot of people freaked about Worley finding some success as well, but it never really lasted, I would guess nolsaco would be the same.

[Twodogs]

I don't know, I am trying to be optimistic here, because none of us really know what Nolasco will do next year.  But over his career he doesn't seem to walk a lot of guys as he has had seasons with a 1.10, 1.21, 1.28, 1.25 WHIPs.  He has always given up a lot of hits, but when he is going good he seems to limit his walks which seems to keep his WHIP down.  So I'm thinking realistically the best he could be is Brad Radke ish.  And Radke was pretty good usually.  But he always gave up a lot of hits and always seemed to have one bad inning, but overall was very consistent.  Nolasco has been nothing close to consistent, but he has basically had parts of two seasons off, to the point where I think his arm should be well rested and maybe he can get back and have one of those age type 27 years instead of an age 34 year, just because his arm should be strong next year, hopefully with the ankle injury healed up he can get his leg strength back too.  I think he is a candidate for a rebound year, I am hoping for one because I realistically don't think anyone will trade for him, never nohow.  I would hate to see the Twins dump him and watch him win 15 games for Toronto, Milwaukee, or some other team that gives him a chance all the while the Twins are paying for him.

[ashbury]

Someone will need to confirm and/or expand on this, but I thought that if a player is DFA'd a team can claim him and pay only the major league minimum salary with the Twins being on the hook for the balance of what he's owed.

I think that's if you flat-out release a player.

[DaveW]

I think that's if you flat-out release a player.

since the twins can't send him to the minors, that is what the DFA would essentially be? (I'm not sure myself)

[DocBauer]

I thought if claimed off waivers the team claiming was responsible for the balance of the contract. If signed after clearing waivers, he could be signed for the minimum.

 

But I think there are different regulations and different procedures and I may be mixing them up.

[diehardtwinsfan]

To clarify, yes the Twins are on the hook for all but the minimum of he's DFAd.  That's my understanding at least.

 

Back to Ricky, I agree that unloading him should be a priority, but I hate to say that in reality, I doubt it happens.  There has to be some demand.  You might be able to unload him for a bad contract where the other player is owned more (see Tulo for Reyes). I'd be fine with that if a productive piece comes back. I think the Kimbrel trade is a good idea, though I'm not sure it would work in reality.  I suppose if the Twins were including cash.  I'm not certain I'd want to throw in Vargas or Arcia either.  The Padres will likely want younger talent anyways. 

[Shane Wahl]

Nolasco should likely be converted to a reliever. He's an expensive MR, but the money is going to be spent anyway. The problem with that is he still won't be that tradeable if he is successful in that role, whereas he might be tradeable if he succeeds adequately as a starter.

 

The Twins would have to be willing to pay half or more of the remaining contract to even get a mid-tier prospect. They don't seem like the kind of team to do that sort of thing, right?