Houston series- does management blow it with poor roster construction?

[Mike Sixel]

Ha, what I meant to type was that Berrios is better than the margin, and should be up here

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

To be clear, I'm all in favor of calling up Berrios.

I get that, didn't mean to pick on you.  But to me, there really isn't any valid argument against it anymore (unless/until he's fatiguing or struggling).  Not with how he's pitched, and how our staff looks right now.

[Rosterman]

Well, somehow our general manager did put together a team that is competitive, still in the playoff hunt, and filling the seats.

 

Remeber, if he hadn't spent oddles of dollars, we would all be complaining about the cheapness of the team and where is the money going. It is sad, yes, that we spent money on Stauffer and Schafer (and Nunez and Duensing). That the payoffs to Nolasco and Santana have given us nothing. That Hughes is injured. That Perkins is, for the second season, an incmplete player.

 

Santana, Arcia and Vargas all slipped in production from lst season.

 

Yet the Twins remain in the hunt.

 

Would they have been in the same position if the money hand't been spent at all? If we hadn't purchased any vets and went with a rotation of youngsters, how bad (or how good) would the Twins be.

 

Yes, management has to be salivating that going into September the Twins will be selling out Target Field. They may surpass the attendance of last season. Which is a bonus considering they were expecting to take an attendance hit this season (and remember, so many of these seats are full-price sales as few tickets are competing with the Twins box office on StubHub).

 

The fear now is that Twins will further hinder the advancement of prospects. Or the need to play contracts outshines the need to see the true future.

 

When all is said and done, the Twins ARE playing to win. Ryan and Co. have tweaked the roster a litle bit. Yes, he could do it more by jettisoning some players (Herrman...for whom, Pierzynski), Duensing and Fien (well, he didn't repalce them with Cotts and Jepson, just sent youngsters backwards...but the youngster will be abck in a few days).

 

It will be fun to see the games in September, how the prospects are worked into the lineup, if the Twins can build leads and switch out players, if the starting rotation can get a starter to win 11 games.

 

You can win games with a short rotation and a short bench, if you keep the series short. The Twins, first of all, have to be primed for a one-game playoff series. Then you have to dominate in Round One, hope everyone excels for Round Two, and then it is all up to how badly players want that ring.

 

If anything, we learned you can't buy wins (look at Nolasco and Santana). You can't predict prospects (look at Vargas and Arcia, for now). You can't bank on hope and potential (Meyer). You always fight injury (Pinto) or suspensions (Santana again). 

 

Hey, we could be Detroit, Chicago or Cleveland right now!

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I get that, didn't mean to pick on you.  But to me, there really isn't any valid argument against it anymore (unless/until he's fatiguing or struggling).  Not with how he's pitched, and how our staff looks right now.

Agreed. Arm fatigue is really the only legitimate concern in my eyes.

 

I believe service time should only be a consideration if it's early in the season or if the team is out of contention.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I think I have figured out how these threads emerge and exist on TD.  I fear those who draft them are applying a football mindset to baseball.  I imagine the same people who draft these posts are the same guys who agonize on third and 7 play calls in the 2nd quarter of a week 3 NFL matchup. Football, because the season is only 16 games, takes on a completely different level of urgency than a 162 game season.   

 

Those who apply a football mindset to baseball games and series see a series like this weekend's as a life and death proposition. After all, in the NFL a three game losing streak could be devastating.  Whereas a 10-17 record in May is merely a data point in a MLB season. 

 

Right now the club is in a position to make a playoff run.  One loss or even losing this weekend's series will not change it.  Yes these games are important - but they alone will not determine the Twins' fate this season.  

 

In the immortal words of Tom Kelly, "Let's take it one day at a time boys."  

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

One thing that tends to get overlooked is that if the Twins make the playoffs - and even if they're knocked out early - that's extra money made by the team.

 

It also means season tickets and attendance goes up in 2016, particularly the first few months of the season. Which means more money (theoretically) for payroll in 2016 and probably 2017.

 

Never let service time get in the way of a playoff run unless the player is going to bring only marginal value (which is actually a pretty legit argument to not call up Berrios, though I think he could have an impact). Not only does it energize the team and franchise but it makes a lot of money the following season as well.

 

Just put the best team on the field and let the chips fall where they may in 2022.

 

That's an approach with a potentially awful downside to it.  That's the rationale that makes trading Ramos for Capps a good idea, because it makes the current team better.  It's the kind of logic that would make trading Polanco, Kepler, and Gonsalves for Benoit, Cishek, and Papelbon a good idea.  To borrow a line that's been used multiple times in this thread, any GM whose plan for the future is "meh, I'm not worried about it, I'll just see what happens when I get there" should be fired.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I get that, didn't mean to pick on you.  But to me, there really isn't any valid argument against it anymore (unless/until he's fatiguing or struggling).  Not with how he's pitched, and how our staff looks right now.

 

I'm fine with bringing Berrios up for the stretch run this year, as long as we keep him down for at least the same amount of time next year.  Why?  Because Berrios will be so much more valuable for the entire year in 2022 (his first year of FA if he's brought up now and not sent back down), than for 6-8 starts this year.  Bringing him up now is the equivalent of trading 30+ Berrios starts at age 28 for 6-8 Berrios starts at 21.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's an approach with a potentially awful downside to it. That's the rationale that makes trading Ramos for Capps a good idea, because it makes the current team better. It's the kind of logic that would make trading Polanco, Kepler, and Gonsalves for Benoit, Cishek, and Papelbon a good idea. To borrow a line that's been used multiple times in this thread, any GM whose plan for the future is "meh, I'm not worried about it, I'll just see what happens when I get there" should be fired.

Losing one year of service time in 2022 (which you can get back or extend later) and losing 6-7 years of a cheap young player are so wildly different they don't belong in the same conversation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I believe service time should only be a consideration if it's early in the season or if the team is out of contention.

Yes.  As much as "everyone's a contender" early in the season, it's also fair to say "no one is a contender" yet either.

 

The calculus should be very different when you're in a playoff spot only a month away from the finish line.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm fine with bringing Berrios up for the stretch run this year, as long as we keep him down for at least the same amount of time next year.  Why?  Because Berrios will be so much more valuable for the entire year in 2022 (his first year of FA if he's brought up now and not sent back down), than for 6-8 starts this year.  Bringing him up now is the equivalent of trading 30+ Berrios starts at age 28 for 6-8 Berrios starts at 21.

Sure, if the Twins decide that it's important, I'd be fine with keeping Berrios down a bit longer next season.  You generally don't see such service-time shenanigans with pitchers, though, because their future value is much more speculative than position players.

 

Still waiting for someone to come up with any Berrios comparables (in terms of talent, health, and experience) that were subjected to such service time games.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't really think Berrios should throw 30+ innings before the playoffs. Maybe an inning+ a week and then one start? I don't know.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Losing one year of service time in 2022 (which you can get back or extend later) and losing 6-7 years of a cheap young player are so wildly different they don't belong in the same conversation.

 

They do, because the underlying logic is the same.  You're saying a GM should do anything he can to make his team better if they're in a pennant race, and let the chips fall where they may in the future.  If that's your approach, it makes logical sense to clear out the farm system every time a team is in the playoff hunt.  I think that should be done to turn a good team into a great one, but not to turn an average team into a decent one, which is the situation the Twins found/find themselves in.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They do, because the underlying logic is the same.  You're saying a GM should do anything he can to make his team better if they're in a pennant race, and let the chips fall where they may in the future.  If that's your approach, it makes logical sense to clear out the farm system every time a team is in the playoff hunt.  I think that should be done to turn a good team into a great one, but not to turn an average team into a decent one, which is the situation the Twins found/find themselves in.

TR hiring assassins to take out opposing players would also have the same "underlying logic."

[Riverbrian]

If Berrios can help this team... He Should be up. Pitch in the Bullpen? Rotation? But Up... to help if he can.  

 

On the other hand... If he is going to come up and struggle while he learns to be a major league player he should stay down. Service time should not be an issue with the wild card a complete possibility. The decision should be based on... Can he make us better right now? If he can... he should be in uniform right now. 

 

Being in the position of making the playoffs doesn't happen every year. Any year it happens should be taken seriously. If I believed that Terry Ryan wasn't taking it seriously in preparation for 2020 I'd be calling for his head very loudly.

 

Thank Goodness... I don't believe that.  

 

What I do believe is that Terry Ryan and all GM's across baseball assess talent differently then we do.   

[Mike Sixel]

 

They do, because the underlying logic is the same.  You're saying a GM should do anything he can to make his team better if they're in a pennant race, and let the chips fall where they may in the future.  If that's your approach, it makes logical sense to clear out the farm system every time a team is in the playoff hunt.  I think that should be done to turn a good team into a great one, but not to turn an average team into a decent one, which is the situation the Twins found/find themselves in.

 

I suggest you check out the logical fallacies thread in MLB Baseball....because, no, this is not the logical conclusion to what Brock is suggesting at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They do, because the underlying logic is the same.  You're saying a GM should do anything he can to make his team better if they're in a pennant race, and let the chips fall where they may in the future.  If that's your approach, it makes logical sense to clear out the farm system every time a team is in the playoff hunt.  I think that should be done to turn a good team into a great one, but not to turn an average team into a decent one, which is the situation the Twins found/find themselves in.

You realize what a strawman argument is, right?

 

Because you're using one.

 

I specifically mentioned service time in my argument. In no way, shape, or form can you reasonably translate that to "TRADE EVERYONE!!!!111eleven"

[Brock Beauchamp]

TR hiring assassins to take out opposing players would also have the same "underlying logic."

Well played.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Sure, if the Twins decide that it's important, I'd be fine with keeping Berrios down a bit longer next season.  You generally don't see such service-time shenanigans with pitchers, though, because their future value is much more speculative than position players.

 

Still waiting for someone to come up with any Berrios comparables (in terms of talent, health, and experience) that were subjected to such service time games.

 

Off the top of my head I don't know any, and I don't have the time to do any research.  I guess I would also ask if there are any comparables to Berrios out there where teams brought pitchers up early, and wish they had the extra year afterwards.

[bluechipper]

 

Off the top of my head I don't know any, and I don't have the time to do any research.  I guess I would also ask if there are any comparables to Berrios out there where teams brought pitchers up early, and wish they had the extra year afterwards.

The Rays called David Price up on September 14, 2008, but I don't think they regret not waiting until the next year, although he might still be on the team today if they had waited.

[nicksaviking]

How about Shelby Miller with the 2012 Cardinals. 

 

It wouldn't be the first time we've said around here we wished the Twins emulated St. Louis.

[Major League Ready]

 

So you are saying our GM absolutely rejects the concept of timing investment?

I am not sure how you got this out of my post.  If anything, I was suggesting exactly the opposite.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I am not sure how you got this out of my post. If anything, I was suggesting exactly the opposite.

You said our GM invested significant money in short term immediate fixes while rebuilding, unlike Houston.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Off the top of my head I don't know any, and I don't have the time to do any research. I guess I would also ask if there are any comparables to Berrios out there where teams brought pitchers up early, and wish they had the extra year afterwards.

Considering your argument is that service time for a young pitcher is vitally important, you might want to shelve the argument until you have time to do more research to actually support it.

 

Otherwise, the evidence I've seen, about Rays pitchers, Cardinals, Mets, etc., suggest it's not nearly as important for pitchers as position players.

[Major League Ready]

 

You said our GM invested significant money in short term immediate fixes while rebuilding, unlike Houston.

Sorry, I thought you meant Houston's GM.  My discontent with the FO is different than most here.  The contracts and extensions I listed were a band aid.  They make no sense for a rebuilding team.   I understand why.  It was a business decision.  When you lose a fan base it take a pretty long time to get them back.  I think there were SPs available on 2 year deals that would have sufficed as a bridge strategy.  Why they extended Hughes and Perkins is absolutely beyond me.

 

I fully support not giving away the farm to support a playoff run this year and I also would not screw up service time in the case of important assets.  I think the thing that gets lost in this discussion is that the wildcard is not the same as when the Rays brought up Price.  It's a one game  playoff now.  How much of the future should a GM mortgage on one game.  Even if they get a wildcard, they have a 50/50 chance of the wildcard having any meaningful playoff implications.  At the deadline, their chances of winning a wildcard were projected at 10% or less so they had a 10% chance of getting a 50/50 opportunity at a playoff series that was greater than one game.  Even if they were projected at a 30% likelihood back then, they would have had a 15% chance of participating in a series greater than one game.

[Comrade Bork]

I know we didn't call Berrios up at the opportune time to make the spot start that Mays did, but the fact is that right now, despite the fact he would be better than most of our starters, we don't have a spot for him in the rotation. That leaves the len. Has Berrios ever proven he can be effective out of the pen? There is a big difference between getting ready on short notice for 3 outs vs getting ready for a start. You pull him out of his role, who knows..

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You said our GM invested significant money in short term immediate fixes while rebuilding, unlike Houston.

And even that's not true. Here are the past two years of Houston FAs that mattered.

 

2015: Colby Rasmus, one year. Pat Neshek, two years. Jed Lowrie, three years.

 

2014: Chad Qualls, two years. Scott Feldman, three years.

 

People have this weird misconception that Houston magically turned into a good baseball team without the use of free agency.

 

They built from the farm, complemented with free agency.

[Major League Ready]

I think some people are getting carried away with the talk of Berrios being our best pitcher when he has never thrown a ML pitch.  I seem to remember very similar threads about Meyer and Burdi.  I love the kid and think he will be great but lets not get ahead of ourselves

[twinsnorth49]

Well, just saw the lineup posted for tonight, so I guess the answer to the thread is an unequivocal yes. Mystery solved, we can close the thread now.

[Major League Ready]

 

And even that's not true. Here are the past two years of Houston FAs that mattered.

 

2015: Colby Rasmus, one year. Pat Neshek, two years. Jed Lowrie, three years.

 

2014: Chad Qualls, two years. Scott Feldman, three years.

 

People have this weird misconception that Houston magically turned into a good baseball team without the use of free agency.

 

They built from the farm, complemented with free agency.

Gents, I don’t think the two scenarios are not even remotely close.  As a matter of fact, I think Houston’s transactions are an example of a bridge strategy that results in a winner.  Our bridge strategy satisfies the larger fan base and is probably a reasonable business decision.  I would have like to seen a strategy more capable of doing both.  I n fairness to the Twins FO, 1500 had someone close to the Houston Organization on a call today and he said the path Houston took lost their fan base and they are just starting to come back.  It is a business.

 

Rasmus 1 yr     $4.68M
Neshek  2 yrs        12M
Lowrie   3 yrs        21M
Feldman 3 yrs      30M through age 33.
Qualls    2  yrs         6M

Total expenditure  73.68M

Santana  4/55M
Hughes   5/58M
Nolasco  4/49M
Perkins   4/22,175
Hunter   1/10M

Twins free agents cost a collective 194,175 or 2.63 times the Astros  expenditures.  Perhaps more importantly, the Twins FA contracts are 4-5 years with the exception of Hunter where Houston did not go beyond 3 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gents, I don’t think the two scenarios are not even remotely close. As a matter of fact, I think Houston’s transactions are an example of a bridge strategy that results in a winner. Our bridge strategy satisfies the larger fan base and is probably a reasonable business decision. I would have like to seen a strategy more capable of doing both. I n fairness to the Twins FO, 1500 had someone close to the Houston Organization on a call today and he said the path Houston took lost their fan base and they are just starting to come back. It is a business.

 

Rasmus 1 yr $4.68M

Neshek 2 yrs 12M

Lowrie 3 yrs 21M

Feldman 3 yrs 30M through age 33.

Qualls 2 yrs 6M

Total expenditure 73.68M

Santana 4/55M

Hughes 5/58M

Nolasco 4/49M

Perkins 4/22,175

Hunter 1/10M

Twins free agents cost a collective 194,175 or 2.63 times the Astros expenditures. Perhaps more importantly, the Twins FA contracts are 4-5 years with the exception of Hunter where Houston did not go beyond 3 years.

I won't argue the Astros spent their money more intelligently but the Astros didn't need as many players, either.

 

Also, you're unfairly stacking the deck. Hughes' second contract was not a free agency signing and Glen Perkins has never been a free agent.

 

The only deal I can really look back upon and question is the Santana deal because the rotation was already getting clogged at that point.

 

And the Hughes extension was pretty unnecessary as well.