When to Throw In The Towel?

[HitInAPinch]

It's a balancing act and catch22 situation. 

 

1st: After what they did in the 1st half of the season, you can't just bail on the MLB roster.  They deserve better than that.  However...

 

2nd:  After the teams who have the tools to make major upgrades to their rosters have done so, the Twins are getting left behind.  So what's the point behind the false hope that they'll be contenders?  Why not start the rebuild now?

 

3rd:  With all the prized talent in MiLB, the Twins should be able to plug them in and really start rolling next year.  However...

 

4th:  During the past 2 weeks, did you notice the absence of any trade rumors where other teams were targeting the prized talent of the Twins?

 

What's my plan?  Glad you ask

 

In the off-season or late in the season, I'd start trading veterans where you know you have replacements readily available.  And I'm not going to attempt on speculating what the return would be.

 

1. Swap Dozier for Polanco.  In a very small sample size, Polanco can hit MLB pitching.  It's reported he has throwing issues at SS.  Makes him an idea candidate for 2B.

2.  Swap Plouffe for Sano.  I'm very leery about Sano's ability to play 3B.  But I also think he has the ability to "out hit" those issues.  Catch and throw, just like Gold Glover Gary Gaetti. 

3.  2 for 2 sale!  2 SP's out, 2 MiLB starter in.  Oddly, it looks like the MiLB starters [i'll go with Duffy and Berrios] are easier to define than the MLB starters [try hard to move Pelfrey before he's gone, Milone]

4.  Robinson with Torii going to the bench for OF, DH and PH duties.  Need to see Arcia and Walker soon, to make a call.  Development-wise, Buxton is pretty much where Hicks was a year ago:  needs to heal [wrist sprain AND slight tear] and needs to refine his hitting mechanics.

[Mike Sixel]

there is zero reason to trade Dozier right now. Zero. He's a top 20 player in the majors. He's not slowing down. Zero, really, really, really bad idea.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I like the idea of a waiver trade of Pelfrey to get May back in the rotation.  I like the idea of a couple kids occupying those RP spots too to give them some ML experience.  I think Duffey in particular would benefit from that, though I think Berrios (being a bit younger) needs to get those innings more than anything else.  I can see him coming up in September.   I'd like to see Oliveros get a shot too, or even Achter.

 

I don't think Polanco is ready.  I like Nunez as a pinch hit bat since he can hit well for a bench player, so I don't think jettisoning him is smart. 

 

Letting some of the kids from AAA get their feet wet, however, is a great idea.

[jimmer]

'Tell me before the season that you wouldn't be surprised if someone told you that Pelfrey through 20 starts would have a 3.65 ERA with a 4.05 FIP. Pretty much your average mid rotation starter, which I'm sure anyone would be pleasantly surprised with before the season.'

 

I don't care at all about the ERA stat, so that wouldn't have mattered at all.

 

Pelfrey's FIP is not good, but that's one stat.  Out of 91 qualifying starting pitchers he's 64th in FIP, 91st (dead last) in strikeouts, 91st in K/9IP(dead last), 83rd in xFIP, 76th in WHIP, tied for 63 in WAR, 59th in BB/9IP

 

He only has 11 quality starts.

 

He has been well, WELL, below average and nowhere near good. 

 

[stringer bell]

'Tell me before the season that you wouldn't be surprised if someone told you that Pelfrey through 20 starts would have a 3.65 ERA with a 4.05 FIP. Pretty much your average mid rotation starter, which I'm sure anyone would be pleasantly surprised with before the season.'

 

I don't care at all about the ERA stat, so that wouldn't have mattered at all.

 

Pelfrey's FIP is not good, but that's one stat.  Out of 91 qualifying starting pitchers he's 64th in FIP, 91st (dead last) in strikeouts, 91st in K/9IP(dead last), 83rd in xFIP, 76th in WHIP, tied for 63 in WAR, 59th in BB/9IP

 

He only has 11 quality starts.

 

He has been well, WELL, below average and nowhere near good.

The game is about runs scored. Pelf's ERA is decent, so he hasn't been way, way below average. As far as predicting the future, the peripherals say that he won't sustain his decent performance, but to this point, he has been close to average and not way, way below average.

[Mike Sixel]

Pelfrey has not been bad, agreed. Of course, he's not exactly been good either, and May could be, and will definitely be here.....and Berrios could be, heck, maybe even Duffey could be.....and yet, Pelfrey is in the rotation......

[jimmer]

 

The game is about runs scored. Pelf's ERA is decent, so he hasn't been way, way below average. As far as predicting the future, the peripherals say that he won't sustain his decent performance, but to this point, he has been close to average and not way, way below average.

Yeah, if you think ERA is a good indicator of pitcher performance. I don't.

[jimmer]

 

Pelfrey has not been bad, agreed. Of course, he's not exactly been good either, and May could be, and will definitely be here.....and Berrios could be, heck, maybe even Duffey could be.....and yet, Pelfrey is in the rotation......

I think the info I provided shows he's been pretty bad, but if people want to think he hasn't been, that's certainly their choice.

[Halsey Hall]

 

Yeah, if you think ERA is a good indicator of pitcher performance. I don't.

It's a good indicator if you look at ERA's vs the Twins lately. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think the info I provided shows he's been pretty bad, but if people want to think he hasn't been, that's certainly their choice.

 

You also like to drum WAR into the ground at every opportunity and that stat also says he hasn't been bad.  He hasn't been good, but no one is arguing that.  He just hasn't been awful or worthless.  Those aren't the same thing.

 

He's been sort of "meh" which is better than I would bet most of us would've expected.  That said, I hope he's as far from a Twins uniform next year as is humanly possible.

[jimmer]

 

You also like to drum WAR into the ground at every opportunity and that stat also says he hasn't been bad.  He hasn't been good, but no one is arguing that.  He just hasn't been awful or worthless.  Those aren't the same thing.

 

He's been sort of "meh" which is better than I would bet most of us would've expected.  That said, I hope he's as far from a Twins uniform next year as is humanly possible.

The OP himself said he has 'actually done well'.  And I use plenty of stats besides WAR (like when the debate was Pelfrey or May). You just don't like that stat so it sticks out every time someone uses it. Yet now you want to use it.

 

And I didn't say he was awful or worthless.  I said he's been pretty bad and 'He has been well, WELL, below average and nowhere near good.'  Those descriptions are not the same as awful or worthless.

[nytwinsfan]

 

The game is about runs scored. Pelf's ERA is decent, so he hasn't been way, way below average. As far as predicting the future, the peripherals say that he won't sustain his decent performance, but to this point, he has been close to average and not way, way below average.

 

If the game is about runs scored in the way that you mean it, then why care about ERA? Why not care about Run Average instead of Earned Run Average? If poor defensive range counts against a pitcher (as it does under ERA), why shouldn't errors too?

[USAFChief]

'Tell me before the season that you wouldn't be surprised if someone told you that Pelfrey through 20 starts would have a 3.65 ERA with a 4.05 FIP. Pretty much your average mid rotation starter, which I'm sure anyone would be pleasantly surprised with before the season.'

 

I don't care at all about the ERA stat, so that wouldn't have mattered at all.

 

Pelfrey's FIP is not good, but that's one stat.  Out of 91 qualifying starting pitchers he's 64th in FIP, 91st (dead last) in strikeouts, 91st in K/9IP(dead last), 83rd in xFIP, 76th in WHIP, tied for 63 in WAR, 59th in BB/9IP

 

He only has 11 quality starts.

 

He has been well, WELL, below average and nowhere near good.

 

Looking backward, ERA is 100 percent better than anything in your post as a measure of what wins baseball games.

 

Looking forward, you might have a point.

 

Using "advanced metrics" to predict the past, however, doesn't seem particularly useful to me.

[jimmer]

 

Looking backward, ERA is 100 percent better than anything in your post as a measure of what wins baseball games.

Looking forward, you might have a point.

Using "advanced metrics" to predict the past, however, doesn't seem particularly useful to me.

I am aware of your thoughts on the subject.  Completely disagree (except for the part where you said doesn't seem particularly useful to me. I have no doubt that is true).  Anyway, us disagreeing is nothing new. I'm fine with that.  It's like a warm blanket.

 

And I didn't just use advanced metrics unless strikeout totals, WHIP, Quality starts, BB per 9IP and Ks per 9IP are now considered advanced metrics.

 

And, as many moderators have said, not every post should turn into a debate about metrics.  I gave my info and said that if one still feels he's done well (which is what the OP said) then they are certainly entitled to that opinion.  I'll continue to use info I think evaluates pitcher's performance best.

[SwainZag]

 

The OP himself said he has 'actually done well'.  And I use plenty of stats besides WAR (like when the debate was Pelfrey or May). You just don't like that stat so it sticks out every time someone uses it. Yet now you want to use it.

 

And I didn't say he was awful or worthless.  I said he's been pretty bad and 'He has been well, WELL, below average and nowhere near good.'  Those descriptions are not the same as awful or worthless.

 

The OP himself, which was me, said if you could go back in time and see Pelfrey's current stats through 20 starts before this season that you would be pleasantly surprised and I called him an average mid-rotation starter this year.  I said no where that he has actually done well.  Maybe my expectations for him were lower than everyone else's but they Twins have gotten value out of Pelfrey this season, and more value that I would have imagined.

[USAFChief]

I am aware of your thoughts on the subject.  Completely disagree.  This is nothing new.

 

And I didn't just use advanced metrics unless strikeout totals, WHIP, Quality starts, BB per 9IP and Ks per 9IP are now considered advanced metrics.

None of those matter, looking backward. None of them. Looking backward, the only thing that determines wins and losses are runs.

 

Make your case that, going forward, he will give up more runs. You have such a case to make. But what his K total was, in yesterday's game, is meaningless in discussing how many runs he gave up. We already know how many he gave up. And we know how that compares to other pitchers.

 

BTW, I'm aware of your thoughts as well. As long as you keep posting them, I reserve the right to dispute them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Look, I get advanced stats and what not, but ERA tells us what actually happened.  While it isn't the best predictive indicator, it is a very good indicator of what happened when a pitcher was on the mound.  I don't have a problem looking to FIP to say 'play A might have been over his head a bit, or player B might improve a bit', but let's not disparage ERA simply because it's not a new stat.  It still has some value.

[jimmer]

The OP was Loosey, he is the original poster of this thread and what my original comment addressed.

[jimmer]

 

Look, I get advanced stats and what not, but ERA tells us what actually happened.  While it isn't the best predictive indicator, it is a very good indicator of what happened when a pitcher was on the mound.  I don't have a problem looking to FIP to say 'play A might have been over his head a bit, or player B might improve a bit', but let's not disparage ERA simply because it's not a new stat.  It still has some value.

It's also dependent on official scorers, team defense and, in the case of starters, what relievers do when brought in with runner on.  I'd rather judge a starter (or any pitcher) on what he does.

 

And again, if people want to use ERA, go for it.  Doesn't matter to me.  I'm just not a fan of a stat so dependent on things out of the pitcher's control.  I don't know why that seems such an offensive stance to so many.

[jimmer]

 

None of those matter, looking backward. None of them. Looking backward, the only thing that determines wins and losses are runs.

Make your case that, going forward, he will give up more runs. You have such a case to make. But what his K total was, in yesterday's game, is meaningless in discussing how many runs he gave up. We already know how many he gave up. And we know how that compares to other pitchers.

BTW, I'm aware of your thoughts as well. As long as you keep posting them, I reserve the right to dispute them.

Well, as a moderator, you are entitled to turn every thread into a debate about the validity of metrics without consequence. The rest of us have to follow the instructions of other moderators who have stated that isn't supposed to happen.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The OP himself said he has 'actually done well'.  And I use plenty of stats besides WAR (like when the debate was Pelfrey or May). You just don't like that stat so it sticks out every time someone uses it. Yet now you want to use it.

 

And I didn't say he was awful or worthless.  I said he's been pretty bad and 'He has been well, WELL, below average and nowhere near good.'  Those descriptions are not the same as awful or worthless.

 

This is the worst kind of semantics.  How many "wells" in capital letters need there be until your "below average" or "nowhere near good" turns into awful?  C'mon.  

 

You were responding to someone who said his performance has been a "pleasant surprise" and it was your retort directly to that phrase that I took issue with.  His performance has been a pleasant surprise precisely because it's been functional and not awful.  

 

Has it been lucky?  Yeah, probably.  But awful? Or whatever the hell "well, WELL below average" is synonymous with?  No, it hasn't been.

[ALessKosherScott]

1. The problem with this team is they've played .667 ball against the teams they should beat. And .333 ball against the team that they shouldn't. That's why it's been a little bit of a Mr. Toad's Wild Ride season. But If those numbers hold, there are plenty of wins left on the schedule. They're also at an extreme disadvantage in any Wild Card game.

 

2. The real wins this season didn't count in the standings anyway. That veteran pitchers are already afraid of Sano is a big one. Hicks stepping up at least defensively and potentially at the plate is another one. May looking like he can be a cromulent starter is a win. Hughes fell back, but he looks like he can be the new Radke over the next couple of years. Gibson stepped up to where he's a decent enough mid-rotation guy.

 

3. For the rest of the season to be successful, the first kind of wins are nice. But the second kind of wins are more important.

 

 

[ashbury]

Well, as a moderator, you are entitled .... The rest of us have to ...

The moderators keep an eye on each other as well as fellow posters, and discuss pretty frankly among ourselves as needed. Questioning Chief's integrity isn't justified, IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

Why do people keep typing the Twins have an easy schedule the rest of the way?

[jimmer]

 

Why do people keep typing the Twins have an easy schedule the rest of the way?

They don't, at all. They have a hard schedule.  I have illustrated this a few times on here to include a link to a story that said of all the teams over.500 we have the hardest schedule after the AS break.  Yeah, we've played some of the tough teams since, but it is still a tough remaining schedule.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

They don't, at all. They have a hard schedule.  I have illustrated this a few times on here to include a link to a story that said of all the teams over.500 we have the hardest schedule after the AS break.  Yeah, we've played some of the tough teams since, but it is still a tough remaining schedule.

 

There are 55 games left after tonight. More than half of them are against teams with losing records. And 25 of them are against Cleveland, Detroit and the White Sox, which are waving giant surrender flags.

[jimmer]

 

There are 55 games left after tonight. More than half of them are against teams with losing records. And 25 of them are against Cleveland, Detroit and the White Sox, which are waving giant surrender flags.

Have you noticed how we've been playing?  You say Detroit and the W Sox are waiving surrender flags? What does that say about us? Detroit is 2 games behind us and Miggy will be back,  White Sox are 2.5 game behind us.  They could be ahead of us in a week.

 

And yes, 27 games against team that are .500 or better.  That's a lot to end the season.  And that's only as it stands now. We also have three games against TB that is one game under .500, right now. The schedule is a good reason why our playoff odds sat at under 10% before tonights loss.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

Have you noticed how we've been playing?  You say Detroit and the W Sox are waiving surrender flags? What does that say about us? 

 

That we're not as good as the Yankees, Pirates, Blue Jays and Angels yet? And really, what was the deadline trade that was going to make us that good?

[Mike Sixel]

 

That we're not as good as the Yankees, Pirates, Blue Jays and Angels yet? And really, what was the deadline trade that was going to make us that good?

 

you don't have to fix every problem, to fix 1 problem........Tulo was traded for pennies on the dollar. He would have been a good fit for this team.

[nokomismod]

I think Pelfrey's performance has been a positive for this season. I think he would probably be in the rotation for a good number of teams in the playoff race. If the Twins aren't going to offer him after the season, they should be able to get some valuable pieces via a waiver trade.