Article: Twins Will Be Active Shoppers At Trade Deadline

[Brock Beauchamp]

Restraint doesn't mean to not improve for this year. There are plenty of options to improve the team that doesn't require breaking the farm system or adding $20M to the payroll next five years (although I have less of an issue with that than the prospects). The Orlando Cabrera/Carl Pavano trades proved you could add to your team without dipping too far into the system. Simply, it means avoiding overpaying in a midseason trade for someone like Tulowitzki.

 

As Hosken pointed out, there are corner infield/outfield types that I would be OK with trading for a component that stretches beyond just this season. For the right player, Oswaldo Arcia or Max Kepler could be traded (although I'm personally enamored by Kepler).

 

 

 

In the case of AJ Pierzynski, it wouldn't cost a lot. Then again, the Twins will be back in the same position in 2016. The free agent market doesn't look promising either for a long term solution (Wieters, if he becomes available which is doubtful):

 

Catchers

Alex Avila

Chris Ianetta

John Jaso

Jeff Mathis

Dioner Navarro

Brayan Pena

A.J. Pierzynski

Matt Wieters

 

That kind of starting pitching comes at too high of a cost at the deadline. Better to "overpay" in the free agent market than to try to part with several promising prospects (like Oakland did last year).

All of this, though I'm not particularly in love with Kepler. I think he's making a good case to sell in an org with too many outfielders.

 

I'm all for improvement to keep the door open but this team isn't particularly good, IMO, and it can't really be fixed in a single deadline. Try to stay relevant but don't try to force the issue by trying to turn this team into something it isn't (dominant).

[Mike Sixel]

 

I didn't say you did, I was just bringing up Ramos for Capps as a bad example of what can happen if you 'go for it'.

 

But that's not what I or anyone is asking them to do, so it's not a good example of what is being discussed here. It's an example of a bad trade, going for it or not. I can give all kinds or examples of good and bad trades, but since no one is asking for this kind of trade, it is not a real good rebuttal, imo.

[Kwak]

If the Twins "stand pat" (which includes adding some nondescript RP) everybody will be singing the chorus "same-old Twins",  "Cheap-cheap-cheap", when there are several positions in need of clear improvement and the team is [apparently] headed to the playoffs.  It will be the "aughts" all over again--"one and done".

[Mike Sixel]

 

Offseason, maybe. But not now, not in the seller's market we're in.

 

You said this:

 

"Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers you make the big trade or FA signing to try to put a strong team over the top, not to try to re-work a borderline team"

 

now you disagree, and it is ok to trade / sign a FA, even if they aren't 1 player from going over the top? If so, why wait, why not do it now (if that player is around for 2-3 more years)?

[Mike Sixel]

 

If the Twins "stand pat" (which includes adding some nondescript RP) everybody will be singing the chorus "same-old Twins",  "Cheap-cheap-cheap", when there are several positions in need of clear improvement and the team is [apparently] headed to the playoffs.  It will be the "aughts" all over again--"one and done".

 

I agree that will be the response.....right or wrong.

[spinowner]

 

You said this:

 

"Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers you make the big trade or FA signing to try to put a strong team over the top, not to try to re-work a borderline team"

 

now you disagree, and it is ok to trade / sign a FA, even if they aren't 1 player from going over the top? If so, why wait, why not do it now (if that player is around for 2-3 more years)?

As I said, offseason, maybe, but not during a seller's market. You make any trade if you think it's a good deal. But trying to improve at this time of year means overpaying. Making a trade during the last week of July to get a good player that will be around for 2-3 years will mean the loss of a prospect or two that we can't afford to lose. And we'd still be a borderline postseason team. That's why not to do it now.

[spinowner]

 

You said this:

 

"Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers you make the big trade or FA signing to try to put a strong team over the top, not to try to re-work a borderline team"

 

now you disagree, and it is ok to trade / sign a FA, even if they aren't 1 player from going over the top? If so, why wait, why not do it now (if that player is around for 2-3 more years)?

And I'll also clarify that by big trade I meant one that is for the purpose of winning now. I apologize for being unclear.

Edited July 22, 2015 by spinowner

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How about Arcia for Trevor Story, instead of Pursuing Tulowitzki?

 

But I'm in the boat of some others. Tulowitzki would be a major boost. You're getting a proven, elite commodity (when healthy) at the expense of probably prospects who haven't done anything yet. It's not like Tulo would be a rental either. There are certainly trade scenarios where everything makes perfect sense.

 

And to those that are so afraid of Tulo's home/road splits for reasons I don't understand, I have to point out that his away OPS is still elite for a SS.

 

Now do I think this would be in their best interest? That's debatable. But, in the right scenario this could help in both the short and long term.

 

I'd certainly prefer to do other types of deals first, like the one I suggest up top, but I'd have a hard time being mad about bringing in a player of Tulowitzki's caliber, unless he continues to miss 1/2 the games every year.

 

I could get behind that.  Story is probably a better SS prospect than Polanco or Santana.  Problem is that he's not quite ready for ML.  You could probably slot him there next season knowing there's going to be some growing pains. 

[cmb0252]

I'm glad someone brought up the Capps trade seeing that's the only truly interesting thing the Twins have done at a trade deadline in years. I expect them to move minor parts for other minor parts and call it a day. Same old same old. At least it gives us something to debate instead of working.

[spsdrock]

 

The biggest holes that we've all been debating on are SS and C. Check out this list of pending FA's this off-season, and let me know your thoughts on how we can fix these holes.....

 

Catcher:

Matt Weiters (debatable if he gets to FA)

Alex Avila
Chris Ianetta
John Jaso
Jeff Mathis
Dioner Navarro
Brayan Pena
A.J. Pierzynski

 

Shortstop:

Ian Desmond

Joaquin Arias
Clint Barmes *
Willie Bloomquist
Asdrubal Cabrera
Alcides Escobar *
Cliff Pennington
Alexei Ramirez *
Jimmy Rollins
Brendan Ryan *

 

* means they have a 2016 option http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-2016-free-agents/ is the source.

 

Long story short, the names aren't pretty to find on the open market... Hence why standing pat at the trade deadline could force the Twins to be in this same situation in July 2016.

 

Catcher will be a hard fix but FA might not be the answer.  We can work a trade in the offseason.  Avila and Weiters would be pretty good upgrade/help with Suzuki. I am not worried what so ever on SS.  Polonco and Santana can duke it out in the offseason and polonco will win it more than likely.  He has commited one error since his first week at AAA from what i read earlier this week.  Seriously we are fine.  We dont need to dump prospects for someone this year.

[Steve Lein]

 

I could get behind that.  Story is probably a better SS prospect than Polanco or Santana.  Problem is that he's not quite ready for ML.  You could probably slot him there next season knowing there's going to be some growing pains. 

 

Yup, definitely looking forward with that. Won't help their push for playoff's this year, but would keep them on the path of the future.

[dbminn]

 

The biggest holes that we've all been debating on are SS and C. Check out this list of pending FA's this off-season, and let me know your thoughts on how we can fix these holes.....

 

[...]

 

Long story short, the names aren't pretty to find on the open market... Hence why standing pat at the trade deadline could force the Twins to be in this same situation in July 2016.

 

I hope the goal is to trade for younger players during the offseason. The Twins have several C prospects to pursue at that time. 30-year old free agents should not be the priority.

[Vanimal46]

I didn't say you did, I was just bringing up Ramos for Capps as a bad example of what can happen if you 'go for it'.

I rip that trade as much as anyone, but in all fairness, it's not like Ramos has developed into an All-Star. In fact, the guy's only played over 100 games at C once in his career, 2011. He's had significant injuries in 12,13,and 14. And this year he may be healthy again, but having his worst season at the plate. .249/.277/.388

 

I guess the Nationals still win because Ramos is still in the MLB? But it's not a complete fleece of a trade like we all think.

[Blackjack]

 

But that's not what I or anyone is asking them to do, so it's not a good example of what is being discussed here. It's an example of a bad trade, going for it or not. I can give all kinds or examples of good and bad trades, but since no one is asking for this kind of trade, it is not a real good rebuttal, imo.

 

In hindsight its easy to say it was a bad trade but I'm sure at the time Bill Smith thought it was  a good trade - he was going for it. And thats what some TD posters are advocating, going for it, making some trades to strengthen SS, catcher, RP, because the Twins are in contention, the opportunity doesn't come along that often, etc. Thats why I brought up Ramos for Capps, you don't know whether a trade will be good or bad until later, any trade that Terry Ryan makes to go for it could be good - or bad.

[twinssouth]

I have come around on the Tulowitzki thing thinking he can help us as he would be energized by playing for something everyday and I think the players on the squad would be excited about it.

I  do not thing the Twins have the players to make the deal but if I was going to do a deal, I would be willing to part with Kyle Gibson, Eddie Rosario, Alex Meyers, and Max Keplar or Danny Santana as the base of the deal if the Rockies are willing to pay some of the salary of Tuowitzki for players with that much service time and team control left. One young starter, one young outfielder a potential first baseman and relief pitcher, that would be about the top of the mark for what this team can probably afford to part with to fill the short stop spot.  To me when your in a playoff race you do what it takes to stay there and remain a contender not hope two or three years from now you have a shot.

Nothing is promised tomorrow not even today, so if you have a chance to go for it you better give it your best shot. I doubt the Twins ownership has the stomach to take on that much money from Tulowitzki though, they have never blown the budget once in there history in a go for it mode. 

Tulowitzki would be the bullet like Shannon Stewart was in the line-up that could help this team. If he is going anywhere though I doubt it will be to the Minnesota Twins.

 

 

 

 

I'd leave Kepler out of it. All the rest, yes. Kepler to me, has too much potential, he's a really good 2 way player.

[rghrbek]

 

In hindsight its easy to say it was a bad trade but I'm sure at the time Bill Smith thought it was  a good trade - he was going for it. And thats what some TD posters are advocating, going for it, making some trades to strengthen SS, catcher, RP, because the Twins are in contention, the opportunity doesn't come along that often, etc. Thats why I brought up Ramos for Capps, you don't know whether a trade will be good or bad until later, any trade that Terry Ryan makes to go for it could be good - or bad.

 

So we are saying/assuming we are in contention just this once?   I know that is a bit literal of me, but I think we were hoping the Twins learned something from the past.   You must build from within.   Just because we are sniffing around making a one game play off, does not mean we should make major moves at the deadline, because we are going for it.   I would think the idea is you get to the point of regular contention, with confidence in your team, then make the moves necessary to put you over the top.    Whatever it takes yes.   Seems to me, there are too many questions about this team to worry about C, SS, and RP (which is a lot)....I mean, it's been smoke and mirrors to get this far to begin with right?   The league is down,  but are we confident a couple of decent moves puts us over the top for a title?

 

Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, Sano...even with these guys we don't know what we have...

[spinowner]

This whole issue comes down to figuring out when it's time to take a shot, keeping in mind that missing the shot moves the target (the World Series) further away. That's what happened in Oakland last year. Obviously my opinion is that it's too soon to take a shot because the target is too far away. However, I think the target is coming closer year by year so the prudent approach is to wait until the target is close enough.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I hope the goal is to trade for younger players during the offseason. The Twins have several C prospects to pursue at that time. 30-year old free agents should not be the priority.

 

what veterans are they trading for good, MLB ready, players? Or, are they trading for more prospects, meaning 2017 or later?

Edited July 22, 2015 by mike wants wins

[Mike Sixel]

 

In hindsight its easy to say it was a bad trade but I'm sure at the time Bill Smith thought it was  a good trade - he was going for it. And thats what some TD posters are advocating, going for it, making some trades to strengthen SS, catcher, RP, because the Twins are in contention, the opportunity doesn't come along that often, etc. Thats why I brought up Ramos for Capps, you don't know whether a trade will be good or bad until later, any trade that Terry Ryan makes to go for it could be good - or bad.

 

It is a bad trade to trade a legit prospect for a bad RP, that isn't hindsight.

[GMinTraining]

Prospect - Year in System - Career Minor League BA - Minor League XBH's

Arcia              2008                           .309                                      229  (77 HR)

Kepler            2010                           .278                                     143   (28 HR)

Rosario         2010                           .291                                      194   (60 HR)  

Harrison        2012                            .263                                      126  (27 HR)

Walker          2012                            .259                                      183  (91 HR)

 

Based on these numbers - Arcia shows the most promise for any of our current minor league outfielders in term of BA and Pop.  Assuming Buxton is untouchable - Which of these guys do you not mind losing?  What do you weigh more in your corner outfielders (defense; average; OBP; power)?  

 

Edited July 22, 2015 by GMinTraining

[spinowner]

 

...The league is down...

A lot of people are confusing parity with mediocrity. The AL is currently 16 games over .500 vs the NL. The league as a whole is not down, it's just that only the Royals, and possibly now the Angels, have been able to put any distance between themselves and the pack.

[jimmer]

 

It is a bad trade to trade a legit prospect for a bad RP, that isn't hindsight.

Pretty much this.  Definitely not hindsight, that trade was slammed from the beginning by everyone I know.

 

And, BTW, prior to getting Capps, we lost one game after Rauch was brought in to close the game. One.  Where was the urgency?  

 

Getting a mediocre closer for a playoff run is not 'going for it'

[troyhobbs]

Not understanding the "stand pat" mentality. Are the Yanks, Royals, and Angels better teams than the Twins? Sure. Are any of those teams elite? Not really. With another hot bat or 2 in their line up and a 3 man rotation who know what could happen. Prospects don't win World Series rings and you can't guarantee the opportunity will be within grasp next year. Why not try to win this year?

[spinowner]

 

Not understanding the "stand pat" mentality. Are the Yanks, Royals, and Angels better teams than the Twins? Sure. Are any of those teams elite? Not really. With another hot bat or 2 in their line up and a 3 man rotation who know what could happen. Prospects don't win World Series rings and you can't guarantee the opportunity will be within grasp next year. Why not try to win this year?

There's no guarantee that making moves this year will succeed either. One has to play the odds. You think the odds favor moving now. I think the odds are better if we wait. I predict TR does not make any big bold moves this season.

Edited July 22, 2015 by spinowner

[jimmer]

 

 I predict TR does not make any big bold moves this season.

or any season...

[Mike Sixel]

 

There's no guarantee that making moves this year will succeed either. One has to play the odds. You think the odds favor moving now. I think the odds are better if we wait. I predict TR does not make any big bold moves this season.

 

Agreed....what would convince you otherwise? If Sano and Buxton were both here and healthy?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Agreed....what would convince you otherwise? If Sano and Buxton were both here and healthy?

For me, it'd require a few things:

 

- Buxton, Sano are healthy and contributing

 

- Berrios or another pitcher looked like a decent or good playoff starter

 

- The bullpen wasn't laughably bad

 

The third issue is somewhat fixable (but not entirely, the issue is too widespread), the second issue isn't, and the first is entirely up in the air.

 

I keep saying it but I'll say it one more time: this team is simply not that good. They banked +11 wins largely through luck and have spent the past eight weeks scratching to play just .500 ball (and they've missed the mark by 3-4 games). I don't expect the Twins to be a .500 team after the break. They'll probably be close but four months of .500 ball does not a world champion make.

[Mike Sixel]

And if Buxton is hurt again next year, then what?

 

So if no one looks like that top pitcher next year either, then what?

 

that third one is fixable, and yet, they haven't really tried any internal options at all.

 

I don't think they are awesome either, but I think throwing away the banked wins this year is like throwing away a 5-10 WAR player starting next year.....

[Pardon My Dinger]

Buxton for discounted Tulo + some pitcher guy. Oh-- and Morneau's contract so he can retire a Twin and we can all get a warm feeling inside.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And if Buxton is hurt again next year, then what?

 

So if no one looks like that top pitcher next year either, then what?

 

that third one is fixable, and yet, they haven't really tried any internal options at all.

 

I don't think they are awesome either, but I think throwing away the banked wins this year is like throwing away a 5-10 WAR player starting next year.....

If Buxton is hurt again, thems the breaks.

 

Notice one thing about my post: I didn't point out two of the three biggest issues on the 2015 Twins - shortstop and catcher.

 

This team has three major glaring flaws - bullpen, catcher, shortstop. It has question marks in centerfield, the rotation (as far as the playoffs are concerned), and I'm putting the bullpen here again because it's that bad. Where the team is set with a player, they offer middling production from most of the field: first base, left field, center field, right field, DH.

 

This isn't a team poised to get hot and thrive in a playoff environment. It's a team poised to scuffle along and barely miss or make the playoffs. If Ryan were to somehow transform this team into a solid contender, he'd have to trade half the farm and swing 4-5 deals just to get the Twins to the level of the Angels or Royals.

 

This isn't the 2010 Twins that were an incredibly solid team from front to back. It's not a surprising but sustainable team like the 2002 team. Hell, it's not even the rounded but flawed 2006 squad.

 

The 2015 Twins are closer to the 2001 Twins than any other team in recent memory and that's not a team you bank on down the stretch. You shore up minor issues without giving up much, hope a few things break right, and don't get too upset if they don't.