How can the Twins dominate the 2nd half?

[Willihammer]

If the Twins can dominate the 2nd half, and capture the ALC division outright, then their WS odds will be DOUBLE that of a wild card. What do they need to do to make that happen?

[ckrolak]

By the end of this month, they need to solidify there batting lineup (to get the best of their hitting potential) and their starting pitching.  This will include any trades or acquisitions.  When injuries occur, they need to make sure they have suitable backups in place.  Molitor has half a season under his belt, so he should settle in for the second half playoff run.

 

If their bullpen doesn't improve and/or their hitting doesn't improve, they won't make it to the playoffs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

They need to win a lot of games

 

/John Madden

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's going to be very difficult to win the division. The Twins only face the Royals six more teams this season (road and home series).

 

The best chance of the Twins winning the division banks on the Royals suffering from the loss of Alex Gordon. I don't see them chasing and passing KC at full strength.

[Willihammer]

The Royals don't have much in the way of reinforcements for bats, so I think the loss of Gordon could sting more than the loss of say, a starter. Gordon was arguably their best bat. But they have a ton of arms already and more coming (Zimmer, Finnegan, etc).  They should pitch but if the bats go cold it might not matter.

[Loosey]

I've mentioned it before.  This might be a good time for the Twins to really take a look at themselves and determine who are "real" prospects.  The Outfield has a lot of talent and a lot of bodies.  Even if every single one of them ends up being good enough to be a major league starter you can only play 3 at a time and realistically keep 4 at the major league level.  So I think if they haven't started that evaluation yet they should and can then painfully start to deal one or two of them for veteran reinforcements for the bullpen and possibly catcher depth.

 

Here is who I have as Twins Outfielders who have legitimate ML capabilities or are already here

Buxton

Rosario

Hicks

Arcia

Kepler

ABW

Danny Ortiz

Travis Harrison??

 

That's 8 guys.  Someone's gotta go at some point.  Might as well get something in return that helps the team at other areas of need.

[Craig Arko]

Pretty much the Royals will have to fall down go boom.

 

A wild card should be within reach.

[TheLeviathan]

If they can get some of these guys - Hicks, Santana, and the bullpen - turned even slightly in the right direction they could push hard.

[ashbury]

What do they need to do to make that happen?

In terms of wins, what they need to do is play at a .100 higher clip than the Royals do the rest of the way. E.g. if the Royals slump and only go .500 they'll still finish with 90 wins, so the Twins need to play at .600 to nose them out. If the Royals do better than that, the Twins need to do just that much better.

 

So far we are pleased that they have just made it to .550. As said above, the Royals have to fall really hard for this to be enough for the Twins.

 

As for what they need to do to achieve more, higher performance (compared to the cumulative so far) in several areas discussed elsewhere stand out. Offense from almost every position, and the bullpen. There are several beacons of hope at various positions, due to youth or past production, but hope needs to become actual production, for this winning scenario to come true. And a couple of spots do not currently have even a legitimate hope.

 

It's not just one silver bullet.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'm gonna be an optimist here, but I say the Twins make it.  They have just enough hitting and pitching to survive in a wide-open AL.  We're really competing against only a handful of teams--1 out of Houston and LA, and 3 out of NY/Toronto/Baltimore/Tampa.  I think Detroit, Cleveland, and the White Sox are demonstrably worse than us, and we have a lead on all of them.  The Mariners, Rangers, and A's are too far out of it, ditto the Red Sox.

[D. Hocking]

The just need to stay away from the guy at the end:

 

http://orig08.deviantart.net/5a68/f/2010/245/6/9/evil_fork_by_digital_master254-d2xuv3b.jpg

[SwainZag]

 

I've mentioned it before.  This might be a good time for the Twins to really take a look at themselves and determine who are "real" prospects.  The Outfield has a lot of talent and a lot of bodies.  Even if every single one of them ends up being good enough to be a major league starter you can only play 3 at a time and realistically keep 4 at the major league level.  So I think if they haven't started that evaluation yet they should and can then painfully start to deal one or two of them for veteran reinforcements for the bullpen and possibly catcher depth.

 

Here is who I have as Twins Outfielders who have legitimate ML capabilities or are already here

Buxton

Rosario

Hicks

Arcia

Kepler

ABW

Danny Ortiz

Travis Harrison??

 

That's 8 guys.  Someone's gotta go at some point.  Might as well get something in return that helps the team at other areas of need.

 

My question to you is how much is ABW, Ortiz or Harrison worth in a trade right now?  Corner OF types who aren't big name prospects?  Obviously Buxton is here to stay.  Rosario, Hicks and Arcia have all shown flashes, but really no one has made a case that they are a long term solution.  Rather than trade someone who lacks value, wait until someone pushes the issue.

[SwainZag]

I'm going to say it's all going to depend on the starting pitching.  If the Twins get starting pitching like they did in the 1st half, they have a great shot of making the playoffs.  

[Willihammer]

 

I'm going to say it's all going to depend on the starting pitching.  If the Twins get starting pitching like they did in the 1st half, they have a great shot of making the playoffs.  

Let me back up.

 

Do you think the goal should be to merely make the playoffs? Or to win the division outright, earn a first round by, and therefore double their chances of advancing to at least the ALCS? And if so, how much would you be willing to pay in terms of talent if an opportunity presented itself to really move the needle?

[Willihammer]

I think the Twins gain about 1.5 games on the Royals just by virtue of the fact that the Royals lose Gordon and the Twins gain Santana.

 

Another win could be gained cleaning up the baserunning.

 

Another win from internal promotions/demotions in the pen (Boyer to mop-up, May to late&close, etc), and using Perkins in more close games and fewer 4 run leads.

 

That would leave roughly 1 game to make up via roster changes, either through trade or perhaps internal promotions.

[SwainZag]

 

Let me back up.

 

Do you think the goal should be to merely make the playoffs? Or to win the division outright, earn a first round by, and therefore double their chances of advancing to at least the ALCS? And if so, how much would you be willing to pay in terms of talent if an opportunity presented itself to really move the needle?

 

With the squad they have right now, I think making the playoffs would be a great goal.  So much inexperience in the lineup and an over achieving bullpen make their record right now great.  I would not be willing to pay a lot in talent, but that's just me.  This team has a bright future.

[Dantes929]

I am more of a process guy than a destination guy.   After the red hot May I remarked that it was a pleasure watching these guys because they were playing good ball.   Of course winning goes hand in hand with playing well but I try to differentiate when they play well but get beat as opposed to beat themselves.   First game after I made those remarks the Twins started making errors, throwing to wrong bases, got caught napping on the base paths, failed to move guys over, walked leadoff guys, etc. etc.   Of course the losing followed.  

My point is there are no perfect teams out there.   There aren't even great teams.   We shouldn't worry about them.   What they do is beyond our control.    Twins shouldn't even be over concerned about their own roster.    Perceived weaknesses are not insurmountable.    Any of these guys are capable of playing very good ball over the short term.    Our relief staff was bolstered by Graham and now May and I believe has been underrated to a certain extent.    They seemed to give up a lot of runs in games that were probably going to be lost anyway but held tough in many of our wins, not that fans notices those games.   Play good, smart baseball.   Throw to the cutoff, take good at bats, move the runner over.  That's what they should do.   That is the hallmark of any winning streak.   Wins and losses will take care of itself and if we get beat by someone that is playing smart and well also and they beat you  then you tip your hat to them..  

[Dantes929]

 

I think the Twins gain about 1.5 games on the Royals just by virtue of the fact that the Royals lose Gordon and the Twins gain Santana.

 

Another win could be gained cleaning up the baserunning.

 

Another win from internal promotions/demotions in the pen (Boyer to mop-up, May to late&close, etc), and using Perkins in more close games and fewer 4 run leads.

 

That would leave roughly 1 game to make up via roster changes, either through trade or perhaps internal promotions.

I like all this but   just a fun logic observation.   They were 4.5 games better than us.  Don't you have to make up that difference as well.     In other words, all the things you suggest will just make us even with them from this point going forward. and will cause us to still be short at the end.    We need to make up roughly 8 games.   8 because the 4.5 games they were better than us was over 89 games.   We have to get as good as them first and then find a way to make up the remaining games..  

[stringer bell]

 

Pretty much the Royals will have to fall down go boom.

 

A wild card should be within reach

From what we've seen that is true. However, like almost all teams (and maybe moreso), the Royals are a significant injury away from being not-so-good. I commented when they played them last that we saw the exact same lineup as the team saw in April. Now Gordon is out, if Perez or Escobar were to go down for a considerable while, I think that would hurt the Royals a lot. I guess the only really valuable position player for the Twins would be Dozier.

[Willihammer]

 

I like all this but   just a fun logic observation.   They were 4.5 games better than us.  Don't you have to make up that difference as well.     In other words, all the things you suggest will just make us even with them from this point going forward. and will cause us to still be short at the end.    We need to make up roughly 8 games.   8 because the 4.5 games they were better than us was over 89 games.   We have to get as good as them first and then find a way to make up the remaining games..  

Yes, good point. Actually they need 10 more wins than the Royals if my understanding of tie breaks is right.

 

What I was trying to do is get an idea of how tall an order that is after accounting for every possible improvement in play and roster, personnel, roles, etc. What do you think, 4-5 games? More?

[Lonestar]

• Improve starting pitching. Replace Pelfrey with May.
• Improve catching production. Acquire Pierzynski and have him split duties with Suzuki.
• Improve shortstop production.  Make Escobar the regular and demote Santana.
• Improve LHB production. Replace Robinson with Arcia and platoon him.
• Optimize Graham's spot.  Use him in higher leverage situations or return him to Atlanta or trade for him (and option him).
• Improve LHP production. Replace Duensing with Rodgers.
• Replace Boyer with Tonkin.  Give Tonkin the same chances you gave Boyer.
• Trade for elite set up man.

 

[ScrapTheNickname]

Besides the obvious needs (relief pitching and a shortstop) ... I am thinking of a resurgent Joe Mauer. For him to hit .300 this year - given that he has played in all but one game, and presuming he will play in all but one game the remainder of the way - he will have to hit .336 the rest of the way. That would be some accomplishment.

 

I say "Go Joe!" because that kind of hitting in the middle of the the order would put the Twins over the top. But can he do it? Given all the defensive shifting and his increased propensity to strike out? I doubt it very very much.

 

[i posted this elsewhere today, too]

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

• Improve starting pitching. Replace Pelfrey with May.
• Improve catching production. Acquire Pierzynski and have him split duties with Suzuki.
• Improve shortstop production.  Make Escobar the regular and demote Santana.
• Improve LHB production. Replace Robinson with Arcia and platoon him.
• Optimize Graham's spot.  Use him in higher leverage situations or return him to Atlanta or trade for him (and option him).
• Improve LHP production. Replace Duensing with Rodgers.
• Replace Boyer with Tonkin.  Give Tonkin the same chances you gave Boyer.
• Trade for elite set up man.

 

 

Nailed it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Do you think the goal should be to merely make the playoffs?

In 2015, yes. Still too many holes on this team to give up talent that may help in future seasons.

 

If the Twins had a second front line starter to follow Gibson, I'd be a lot more confident about their chances.

 

I'm fine with shoring up the biggest hole(s) on the cheap but this isn't the right year to go for it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

• Improve starting pitching. Replace Pelfrey with May.
• Improve catching production. Acquire Pierzynski and have him split duties with Suzuki.
• Improve shortstop production. Make Escobar the regular and demote Santana.
• Improve LHB production. Replace Robinson with Arcia and platoon him.
• Optimize Graham's spot. Use him in higher leverage situations or return him to Atlanta or trade for him (and option him).
• Improve LHP production. Replace Duensing with Rodgers.
• Replace Boyer with Tonkin. Give Tonkin the same chances you gave Boyer.
• Trade for elite set up man.

I could get behind most, if not all, of this... I'd prefer to see the setup man come from within, though.

[SwainZag]

 

 

• Improve starting pitching. Replace Pelfrey with May.
• Improve catching production. Acquire Pierzynski and have him split duties with Suzuki.
• Improve shortstop production.  Make Escobar the regular and demote Santana.
• Improve LHB production. Replace Robinson with Arcia and platoon him.
• Optimize Graham's spot.  Use him in higher leverage situations or return him to Atlanta or trade for him (and option him).
• Improve LHP production. Replace Duensing with Rodgers.
• Replace Boyer with Tonkin.  Give Tonkin the same chances you gave Boyer.
• Trade for elite set up man.

 

- I think May makes a better reliever than Pelfrey would.  If they are going to replace him in the rotation, I would hope that Pelfrey is traded and May into the rotation.

- I'm all good with trading for an AJ type player to match up with Zuke

- I think Danny has shown a lot better AB's since he has come back up from AAA and it's not like Escobar has been lighting it up at the plate this year. I'm a wash on this one

- All for Arcia coming up for Robinson.  Power from the left hand side of the plate is something this team could really use

- Why is should Graham's role be high leverage or off the team?  Whatever they have done with limiting his exposure has worked out.  Good RH reliever who is good for a few innings if needed

- Duensing has allowed 0 runs and only 2 hits in the last month, which spanned 10.1 innings, not to mention which included a 8/1 K/BB ratio.  He has looked like a much different pitcher than he did early in the season.

- I think the good Boyer is done.  His last 10 appearances or so have been pretty questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him replaced with an AAA arm

- I wouldn't even say he has to be elite, I would settle for an arm like Benoit, but someone with some experience and that can strike someone out

[nicksaviking]

The Royals don't have a great offense and their starters aren't very good. They could easily tank.

 

Of course there are so many ways the Twins could tank too. Neither team looks more than average to me. Actually, no team in the AL looks all that good. Who knows, the Twins youngsters might be able to make a difference after all this year.

[Dantes929]

 

Besides the obvious needs (relief pitching and a shortstop) ... I am thinking of a resurgent Joe Mauer. For him to hit .300 this year - given that he has played in all but one game, and presuming he will play in all but one game the remainder of the way - he will have to hit .336 the rest of the way. That would be some accomplishment.

 

I say "Go Joe!" because that kind of hitting in the middle of the the order would put the Twins over the top. But can he do it? Given all the defensive shifting and his increased propensity to strike out? I doubt it very very much.

 

[i posted this elsewhere today, too]

Twins had three of the closest pennant races in the history of baseball in 2006, 2008 and 2009.   Mauer had an OPS over .900 in the last month of each season.    I think he has it in him and they could sure use him putting up his career numbers in the 2nd half.  .   He hit .325 in the last month and the longer he gets from the concussion the better .  

[TwinsCD]

I'd love to win the division.  4 1/2 games is not an insurmountable deficit to overcome.  However, I'm more concerned with continuing the pace they've been on thru the first half of the season.  As a fan, my goal is always 2 out of 3 in a series.  You win every series (or split a 4-gamer) and you're gonna make up ground just like they did back in May.  As the Giants and Royals proved last year, you don't have to win your division to make noise in the playoffs.  Just get into the tournament and let things play out from there.

 

How do they maintain that pace?  The starting pitching has to keep going like it has.  I'm still leery of Pelfrey and he's been showing cracks in his last couple of starts.  Hughes, Milone, and Gibson have all been consistent on the good side.  If the starters can consistently get into the 7th inning and beyond then they don't have to resort to the question marks in the bullpen.  Hitting-wise, they need more production out of Santana and they have to hope that Buxton starts hitting more or at least get on base when he comes back.  Set the table at the top for Dozier and Plouffe and Mauer to get them around.  Twins have been very good with RISP this year and that obviously needs to continue.  

 

I'm looking forward to this 2nd half...something I haven't said in 5 years.  If we can get to the 40 games to go mark still in firm WC position with a chance to win the division, it'll be a very fun last month of the season.

[Loosey]

 

My question to you is how much is ABW, Ortiz or Harrison worth in a trade right now?  Corner OF types who aren't big name prospects?  Obviously Buxton is here to stay.  Rosario, Hicks and Arcia have all shown flashes, but really no one has made a case that they are a long term solution.  Rather than trade someone who lacks value, wait until someone pushes the issue.

I agree with everything you mentioned.  I'm not saying the Twins are going to be able to get Aroldis Chapman for ABW or something.  However, if they can get an upgrade for the pen with some maybe an team option left on the contract I would maybe do that.  Yes, it would be better to know what each guy is before they let them go, but if that were the case no prospects would ever be traded.  I'm also not advocating trading all of them.  The two with the the least upside (name recognition) are probably Harrison and Ortiz, If one of them can get you a piece to improve you this year, I say do it.