How can the Twins dominate the 2nd half?

[drjim]

 

 

• Improve starting pitching. Replace Pelfrey with May.
• Improve catching production. Acquire Pierzynski and have him split duties with Suzuki.
• Improve shortstop production.  Make Escobar the regular and demote Santana.
• Improve LHB production. Replace Robinson with Arcia and platoon him.
• Optimize Graham's spot.  Use him in higher leverage situations or return him to Atlanta or trade for him (and option him).
• Improve LHP production. Replace Duensing with Rodgers.
• Replace Boyer with Tonkin.  Give Tonkin the same chances you gave Boyer.
• Trade for elite set up man.

 

 

Only 8 moves?

[Lonestar]

 

I could get behind most, if not all, of this... I'd prefer to see the setup man come from within, though.

I would, too.  And I think it could have happened.  We can still have have someone in the organization emerge as the 8th inning set up guy.  But we would maximize our chances of making and winning in the playoffs if we get get someone proven now.

[big dog]

 

They need to win a lot of games

 

/John Madden

They need Bret Favre!  Boom!

 

/John Madden

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would, too. And I think it could have happened. We can still have have someone in the organization emerge as the 8th inning set up guy. But we would maximize our chances of making and winning in the playoffs if we get get someone proven now.

That's why I wanted to see the team more aggressively audition arms in May and June. Meh.

[blindeke]

Royals starters aren't that great.

 

Not that ours are, but just sayin'

[cmb0252]

Trade for papelbon to give a killer 8th\9th inning combo. Shorten the game like the royals do.

[drjim]

That's why I wanted to see the team more aggressively audition arms in May and June. Meh.

Pretty sure they did audition the two internal guys that could have been late inning reliever - Tonkin and Pressly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pretty sure they did audition the two internal guys that could have been late inning reliever - Tonkin and Pressly.

Meyer, Oliveros, Achter. There were unused options.

[drjim]

Meyer, Oliveros, Achter. There were unused options.

For good reason.

 

Though Meyer will be back.

[DocBauer]

 

• Improve starting pitching. Replace Pelfrey with May.
• Improve catching production. Acquire Pierzynski and have him split duties with Suzuki.
• Improve shortstop production.  Make Escobar the regular and demote Santana.
• Improve LHB production. Replace Robinson with Arcia and platoon him.
• Optimize Graham's spot.  Use him in higher leverage situations or return him to Atlanta or trade for him (and option him).
• Improve LHP production. Replace Duensing with Rodgers.
• Replace Boyer with Tonkin.  Give Tonkin the same chances you gave Boyer.
• Trade for elite set up man.

For the most part, yes.

 

I don't believe the Twins should be chasing the Royals and competing against them. Doing that would be short-sighted and might allow for mistakes in reaching for something...as in a trade possibly...that could hurt in the long run. No, I believe the Twins should be competing against themselves. Similar to a pro prospect competing against themselves to just do better at a combine...similar to an athlete in an Olympic or non-revenue sport looking to conquer an obstacle or course...the Twins need to worry about just being the best they can , or better, at this point.

 

* Is this team better now, the rest of the season, and next season and going forward with May in the rotation? Yes. Then get him back there.

 

* Does Robinson have a future with the club? No. Does Arcia? Perhaps. Is Arcia the better talent with a better potential as a Twin or possible trade bait? Yes. Then get him back on the team as soon as seems prudent and cut ties with Robinson.

 

* Optimize Graham by giving him more shots. He's already been way better than I expected.

 

* Figure out SS. Play Santana every day if you can. Preferably at SS. But if not, then somewhere else. Ditto for Escobar. Both guys need to play, get a shot, audition, whatever.

 

Can we concentrate on our building while still trying to win and perform better now? Possibly yes. If there isn't a deal to be made for a nice young catcher now, and I doubt there is, thinking the offseason is when we might make something happen, then go ahead and trade for AJ. Do you really think he's going to cost something we can't afford to give up? Heck, at this point, he and Suzuki might make a nice 1-2 for '16 while we re-asses the position.

 

Don't get stupid in the bullpen by trading off something valuable for a rental. If you can trade an OK prospect for someone in the pen the team can actually control and have for a few seasons, then OK. Otherwise, watch the waiver wire or trade a bag of balls and a Butera/Tyner/Walters clone for a vet rental someone is trying to get rid of to shave payroll.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For good reason.

 

Though Meyer will be back.

It's hard to say "for good reason" when you look at the Twins bullpen. I'm pretty forgiving of the front office's decisions but they simply haven't done as much as they could in regards to the pen.

[drjim]

It's hard to say "for good reason" when you look at the Twins bullpen. I'm pretty forgiving of the front office's decisions but they simply haven't done as much as they could in regards to the pen.

I agree - but Oliveros and Achter aren't the answer.

[Linus]

By not attempting any more steals.

[by jiminy]

 

 

Buxton

Rosario

Hicks

Arcia

Kepler

ABW

Danny Ortiz

Travis Harrison??

 

That's 8 guys.  Someone's gotta go at some point.  Might as well get something in return that helps the team at other areas of need.

 

I think you're getting way ahead of yourself. Not one of those guys has proven he can contribute at a playoff level. Not one. We need three.

 

The odds of getting three starters -- and not just league average starters, which in itself is a very good return for a prospect, but people who can play for a championship contender -- out of eight minor leaguers is far from a sure thing.

 

In my opinion, if we keep them all, and get a playoff level outfield from that group, we should consider ourselves very fortunate.

 

This doesn't mean I'm not open to a trade -- far from it. If you could solidify another position that's in worse need, of course go for it. I just think talking about a surplus is way premature.

 

All of those players have significan flaws or uncertainties. The best prospect on the list, Buxton, got completely dominated in his first look at major league pitchers. Will he adjust? Probably. But many never do.

 

Rosario never walks and strikes out a ton. Does this mean he will fail? Certainly not. But most people with poor plate discipline don't suddenly improve.  Hicks has never dominated offensively at any level. He's young and still improving, and I like his chances a lot, but it's an uphill battle. ABW and Arcia are strikeout machines -- very talented ones, with exciting potential, but the Yankees aren't about to break down our door begging to put them in their outfield.  And that's the standard we should seek: are they good enough to play, every day, for the Yankees? Those are the players we need, if our goal is to beat the Yankees in the playoffs.

 

I'm not a pessimist. I'm pretty excited about our chances of reaching that level, and I think there's a good chance three of those eight could surpass the Yankees' outfield someday. They just still have a long way to go.

 

Personally I would not trade one for a stop gap rental reliever who slightly improves our chances this year alone. I'd roll the dice with one of the hard throwers in our system now, who might do just as well, and worse case scenario, we get them some major league experience.

 

I like what the Twins have been doing this year, cycling the young guys through the majors for a look. If they contribute, like Rosario and May and Sano, keep them, and if they're not ready, like Buxton, Arcia, Morales, and Meyer, they now know what they need to do to make it the rest of the way. I'd keep doing that all year, hope we strike gold a few times, and go into next year with a full deck of options, all more seasoned than they are now. There are plenty of minor league pitchers I'd rather see in the bullpen than some expensive "proven veteran" who will cost some of our bright future. And since relievers are so variable, I don't think that would even hurt our chances much this year, if at all. Is anyone we could get in trade really better than Berrios or Jay? I'm not so sure. And I'd get a much bigger thrill out of watching one them lead us to the playoffs than some rent-a-veteran.

[jimbo92107]

 

 

• Improve starting pitching. Replace Pelfrey with May.
• Improve catching production. Acquire Pierzynski and have him split duties with Suzuki.
• Improve shortstop production.  Make Escobar the regular and demote Santana.
• Improve LHB production. Replace Robinson with Arcia and platoon him.
• Optimize Graham's spot.  Use him in higher leverage situations or return him to Atlanta or trade for him (and option him).
• Improve LHP production. Replace Duensing with Rodgers.
• Replace Boyer with Tonkin.  Give Tonkin the same chances you gave Boyer.
• Trade for elite set up man.

 

Agree with some of that, but some of it's premature or not needed.

Pelfrey is okay for now where he is, and May in the pen is quite valuable. May is strong and resilient, and can step in for any of the starters to help finish the first seven innings.

Graham is a keeper, exactly what this team needs, and is what May should also do. When you have a starting staff of 2's and 3's, there will be many times when you need good middle guys for three or four innings, or for spot starts. Having a pair of them is a big plus.

Santana is improving. His fielding is excellent, better than Escobar's, and his hitting is gradually getting better.

I would swap Arcia for Robinson right now. Need Arcia's lefty bat behind Sano against RH pitchers, although yesterday Plouffe did what I'm hoping Arcia will do after somebody pitches around Sano. Boom.

Replace Boyer with JO Berrios, not Tonkin. It's still early enough in the season to do some essential experiments. Let's see if Jose can get guys out at this level. Valuable data.

If Berrios can get guys out, we have our setup man at no extra cost. Might try Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffy, too. Young pitchers get a taste from the bull pen.

[Dantes929]

 

Yes, good point. Actually they need 10 more wins than the Royals if my understanding of tie breaks is right.

 

What I was trying to do is get an idea of how tall an order that is after accounting for every possible improvement in play and roster, personnel, roles, etc. What do you think, 4-5 games? More?

Lets make it even more simple.  Sweep the A's while Chicago sweeps the Royal and then we are only talking 1.5 games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Lets make it even more simple. Sweep the A's while Chicago sweeps the Royal and then we are only talking 1.5 games.

The first part is hard but not impossible.

 

LOL at the second part.

[Willihammer]

A little late but, Vargas down with TJS. The just-demoted Ventura recalled to fill in.

That's two Royals starters down for the 2nd half...

[jimmer]

 

Agree with some of that, but some of it's premature or not needed.

Pelfrey is okay for now where he is, and May in the pen is quite valuable. May is strong and resilient, and can step in for any of the starters to help finish the first seven innings.

Graham is a keeper, exactly what this team needs, and is what May should also do. When you have a starting staff of 2's and 3's, there will be many times when you need good middle guys for three or four innings, or for spot starts. Having a pair of them is a big plus.

Santana is improving. His fielding is excellent, better than Escobar's, and his hitting is gradually getting better.

I would swap Arcia for Robinson right now. Need Arcia's lefty bat behind Sano against RH pitchers, although yesterday Plouffe did what I'm hoping Arcia will do after somebody pitches around Sano. Boom.

Replace Boyer with JO Berrios, not Tonkin. It's still early enough in the season to do some essential experiments. Let's see if Jose can get guys out at this level. Valuable data.

If Berrios can get guys out, we have our setup man at no extra cost. Might try Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffy, too. Young pitchers get a taste from the bull pen.

Danny Santana's defense is excellent?  Are you watching the same player the rest of us are? His DRS is -14.  The next worse shortstop sits at -8. He's 23rd out of 26th in UZR, but it's a counting stat and the players below him all have over 240 more innings played there. So far, he's horrendous on D, likely the worst starting shortstop in the game on defense, and not better than Escobar on D 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Danny Santana's defense is excellent? Are you watching the same player the rest of us are? His DRS is -14. The next worse shortstop sits at -8. He's 23rd out of 26th in UZR, but it's a counting stat and the players below him all have over 240 more innings played there. So far, he's horrendous on D, likely the worst starting shortstop in the game on defense, and not better than Escobar on D

Yes. Danny Santana's ability does not match his day to day play.

 

It doesn't matter if you're a stat guy or a "watch 'en play" guy. The result is the same.

 

I watch Escobar and see a middling shortstop who makes the plays. The stats confirm that.

 

I watch Santana and see an immensely talented kid who screws up. All. The. Time. The stats also confirm that.

 

In the long term, Santana might be the better player. Today is not the long term.

[jimmer]

 

Yes. Danny Santana's ability does not match his day to day play.

It doesn't matter if you're a stat guy or a "watch 'en play" guy. The result is the same.

I watch Escobar and see a middling shortstop who makes the plays. The stats confirm that.

I watch Santana and see an immensely talented kid who screws up. All. The. Time. The stats also confirm that.

In the long term, Santana might be the better player. Today is not the long term.

yeah, and he lacks fundamentals at the position as well.  Like the play with he and Dozier a few games ago.  His ball all the way and anyone who has played the position for any decent time knows that. He's very much like Casilla in that way.  Loads of physical talent, not able to put it together to play shortstop.

 

Escobar may not be flashy or have the same range necessarily, but he seems to have the fundamentals down.

[SwainZag]

 

yeah, and he lacks fundamentals at the position as well.  Like the play with he and Dozier a few games ago.  His ball all the way and anyone who has played the position for any decent time knows that. He's very much like Casilla in that way.  Loads of physical talent, not able to put it together to play shortstop.

 

Escobar may not be flashy or have the same range necessarily, but he seems to have the fundamentals down.

 

I think that's a really good comparison.  Danny makes some players that just make you sigh......then he goes and makes a fantastic play like he did last night.  I'm hoping Danny matures defensively and finds it, something Casilla never could do.