Hicks

[clone52]

 

One stat, imo, doesn't usually tell much of a story......

 

 

When you go from being one of the worst players in the league for just making contact to an above average contact hitter, thats a big change and should be a sign that you shouldn't give up on a guy just yet.

 

Especially considering that as a floor, Hicks would make a fantastic 4th outfielder (pinch running, defensive replacement).

[TheLeviathan]

When you go from being one of the worst players in the league for just making contact to an above average contact hitter, thats a big change and should be a sign that you shouldn't give up on a guy just yet.

 

Especially considering that as a floor, Hicks would make a fantastic 4th outfielder (pinch running, defensive replacement).

"Above average contact hitter" is REALLY over selling it.

[DJL44]

 

Seeing what Morneau is struggling with (AGAIN on the 60 day DL), how can you even contemplate doing this?

The man has a wife, 2 kids -- have you no concern for his well-being?

 

This is hyperbole in the other direction. The most dangerous thing Joe Mauer does every day is drive to the ballpark. If another concussion would noticeably impact his lifelong health he should retire.

[DJL44]

I think the walks will come back. Pitchers will challenge Hicks until he proves he can hit the ball.

[DaveW]

Another day another great game by hicks. Dude is hitting the ball hard now, even RHP which is encouraging.

[DaveW]

I think the walks will come back. Pitchers will challenge Hicks until he proves he can hit the ball.

Perfect example is they pitched around him and They walked him in the 7th to get to fryer.

[Squirrel]

 

Another day another great game by hicks. Dude is hitting the ball hard now, even RHP which is encouraging.

yeah ... I remain cautiously hopeful he's turned that corner and sticks. He's been fun to watch lately ... but most have been lately.

[clone52]

 

"Above average contact hitter" is REALLY over selling it.

 

Before today's game, he is 73rd in K rate out of 323 MLB players with 100 or more plate appearances.  That is way above average.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Before today's game, he is 73rd in K rate out of 323 MLB players with 100 or more plate appearances.  That is way above average.

 

So you're content with someone meekly grounding out as long as it's "contact".  He could go up there and bunt every time and be the most amazing contact hitter in big league history by that measure.  

 

It's nice that he's cut down on the Ks, but that was never his major issue either.

[clone52]

 

So you're content with someone meekly grounding out as long as it's "contact".  He could go up there and bunt every time and be the most amazing contact hitter in big league history by that measure.  

 

It's nice that he's cut down on the Ks, but that was never his major issue either.

 

I'm content with a guy who is making contact far more often than he has the last 2 years and is hitting for a reasonable .250 average despite a low BABIP.  He's made significant progress this year and it might just be a blip on the radar, but he could be starting to live up to the potential of his talent, and if he is, an outfield of Hicks, Buxton and Rosario would make pitchers drool for the next 4-5 years.

[nicksaviking]

 

Except there is evidence.  His K% is way, way down this year.

 

So is his BB%, which used to be his biggest asset. Holy cow have his walks taken a nose dive.

 

I am really encouraged with his bat.  It does look like there might be a correlation, perhaps even a big correlation between his lack of walks and his new found ability to make good contact. 

 

His 2015 minor league BB% is down to 11% as opposed his career 14% so there is a good chance he's been working on being more agressive, still that 3% drop is nothing compared to the decrease in his MLB SSS at bats in 2015.  Got to find some middle ground I'd think.  If he does, he'd be pretty good.

[nicksaviking]

 

This is hyperbole in the other direction. The most dangerous thing Joe Mauer does every day is drive to the ballpark. If another concussion would noticeably impact his lifelong health he should retire.

 

I played organized ball for maybe ten years, I've been driving a car for 20.  I've been in two car accidents in that time, I probably had 2000% more collisions playing baseball.

[JB_Iowa]

 

So you're content with someone meekly grounding out as long as it's "contact".  He could go up there and bunt every time and be the most amazing contact hitter in big league history by that measure.  

 

It's nice that he's cut down on the Ks, but that was never his major issue either.

 

Are you saying he's making "weak contact" Levi?  Cuz the confidence he appears to have in his stroke is what impresses me.  And he's had some pretty hard hit balls even when they don't find a gap.

 

I just feel like he is coming into his own -- physically and mentally.  Regression is possible but for now, I'm hoping he has "figured it out".  And success breeds success.  Getting everybody hitting well would be a thing of beauty.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Are you saying he's making "weak contact" Levi?  Cuz the confidence he appears to have in his stroke is what impresses me.  And he's had some pretty hard hit balls even when they don't find a gap.

 

I just feel like he is coming into his own -- physically and mentally.  Regression is possible but for now, I'm hoping he has "figured it out".  And success breeds success.  Getting everybody hitting well would be a thing of beauty.

 

Since this last call up he's looked world's better, no doubt.

 

But when someone cites one stat (a really flawed one at that) it makes me bristle.  Hick's Hard Hit Rate is still very low and it's the lowest of his big league career.  (20.4% - below the likes of Hermann)  His walk rate has also plummeted.  So while it's nice that he has a higher LD%, a lower GB%, and a lower K rate - there are a lot of red flags too.

 

Now if he keeps having at-bats like he did this series we can throw all that out the window, cuz he looked like a different player.

[jimmer]

 

I played organized ball for maybe ten years, I've been driving a car for 20.  I've been in two car accidents in that time, I probably had 2000% more collisions playing baseball.

I've been driving a car for 30 years and have NEVER had a vehicle to vehicle accident.  I had a couple incidents with ice and very small ditches along with some encounters with deer, but never a car to car accident.

[DJL44]

 

 I probably had 2000% more collisions playing baseball.

 

And none of them killed you

[Brock Beauchamp]

And none of them killed you

Uh, neither do most concussions... But that doesn't mean they aren't damaging in a myriad of ways.

[John Kelsey]

What is going on in this thread?!?!?

[Craig Arko]

And none of them killed you

Is that what you require as proof?

[TheLeviathan]

 

What is going on in this thread?!?!?

 

http://33.media.tumblr.com/d179246af5b0953bcecc59532084c0eb/tumblr_inline_n7dqwhOrHd1ris7ki.gif

[TJW]

Hicks!! he's been a Monster since last Friday:

22 PA, 3 R, 5 H, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 1 K, .265 AVG, .364 OBP, .579 SLG, .943 OPS

[DJL44]

 

Is that what you require as proof?

 

You're the one arguing that playing baseball is more dangerous than getting into a car accident. That just isn't true and there are mountains of data to back that up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You're the one arguing that playing baseball is more dangerous than getting into a car accident. That just isn't true and there are mountains of data to back that up.

You're the one who brought up driving and, by its implication, car accidents. As far as I can tell, nobody else here cared about the danger of driving an automobile because it's completely unrelated to the argument at hand. Never mind that because almost everyone drives or uses our roadways on a daily basis, it's an assumed risk we all take and completely irrelevant.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_the_well

 

Poisoning the well (or attempting to poison the well) is a rhetorical device where adverse information about a target is preemptively presented to an audience, with the intention of discrediting or ridiculing everything that the target person is about to say. Poisoning the well can be a special case of argumentum ad hominem, and the term was first used with this sense by John Henry Newman in his work Apologia Pro Vita Sua (1864).

[USAFChief]

Back on topic...what kind of car does Hicks drive?

[Willihammer]

 

Back on topic...what kind of car does Hicks drive?

I'm guessing a Range Rover.

[DJL44]

 

You're the one who brought up driving and, by its implication, car accidents. As far as I can tell, nobody else here cared about the danger of driving an automobile because it's completely unrelated to the argument at hand. Never mind that because almost everyone drives or uses our roadways on a daily basis, it's an assumed risk we all take and completely irrelevant.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_the_well

 

The discussion was about risk and how putting Mauer back at catcher would cause such extreme risk to his future health that it should never happen. I think the back and knee injuries also contribute to reasons why Mauer shouldn't catch anymore.

 

A catcher has about a 10x increase in risk of concussion compared to a first baseman based on the rates C are put on the concussion DL compared to other players. If putting Mauer behind the plate means he is in mortal danger because of a possible concussion, then he obviously shouldn't play baseball at all. Reducing risk by 10x isn't enough to justify continuing to play. Clearly his long term health is not the issue or he never would have received clearance to play 1B.

 

Playing Mauer at 1B instead of C is about making sure he is playing baseball and not sitting on the DL for extended periods of time. Reducing his DL time by a factor of 10 is HUGE for the Twins. That's not just the concussion risk. It is also the knee injuries (bilateral leg weakness), the back injuries and his increasing age.

 

Sorry to veer so far off topic but I can't let nonsense go by without a comment. Aaron Hicks has looked great lately and I expect him to continue to improve.

 

[drock2190]

One stat, imo, doesn't usually tell much of a story......

Yeah except strikeout percentage is one of the most important stats. You can't help the team if all you do is strikeout.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The discussion was about risk and how putting Mauer back at catcher would cause such extreme risk to his future health that it should never happen. I think the back and knee injuries also contribute to reasons why Mauer shouldn't catch anymore.

 

A catcher has about a 10x increase in risk of concussion compared to a first baseman based on the rates C are put on the concussion DL compared to other players. If putting Mauer behind the plate means he is in mortal danger because of a possible concussion, then he obviously shouldn't play baseball at all. Reducing risk by 10x isn't enough to justify continuing to play. Clearly his long term health is not the issue or he never would have received clearance to play 1B.

 

Playing Mauer at 1B instead of C is about making sure he is playing baseball and not sitting on the DL for extended periods of time. Reducing his DL time by a factor of 10 is HUGE for the Twins. That's not just the concussion risk. It is also the knee injuries (bilateral leg weakness), the back injuries and his increasing age.

And that's more reasonable but you keep veering toward the only outcomes of a concussion being "death" or "good baseball player". There's a huge grey area between those two points and that's what most of us are discussing.

 

Since Mauer had the concussion, he has been a .730 player after being an .850 player for his entire career. We saw it with Morneau. We saw it with Koskie. We saw it with Span. A player can be severely affected by a concussion to the point they aren't a valuable player for years after their last concussion.

 

It's about mitigating permanent injury risk that will force someone out of baseball (Koskie), yes. But it's also about keeping a good player productive (Morneau). Mauer could squat behind the dish and get another concussion. He'd probably keep playing baseball for awhile after that point but what kind of player would he be after his next concussion? Kurt Suzuki?

[DJL44]

 

And that's more reasonable but you keep veering toward the only outcomes of a concussion being "death" or "good baseball player". There's a huge grey area between those two points and that's what most of us are discussing.

 

 

I was attempting to debunk the idea that Mauer was moved out from behind the plate because the concussion risk could be a long-term health issue (think of his children!) and not because it is a playing time risk. Another concussion could cause a long DL stint with a slow recovery and diminished productivity. So could another knee injury. The Twins are balancing risk here and trying to get as much baseball out of Joe Mauer as possible. They aren't worried about his long-term health or they would have told him to retire.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was attempting to debunk the idea that Mauer was moved out from behind the plate because the concussion risk could be a long-term health issue (think of his children!) and not because it is a playing time risk. Another concussion could cause a long DL stint with a slow recovery and diminished productivity. So could another knee injury. The Twins are balancing risk here and trying to get as much baseball out of Joe Mauer as possible. They aren't worried about his long-term health or they would have told him to retire.

And that's where we differ. I believe it was a baseball decision first but also a nod to Joe and his continued health outside the game. I don't see why the two things need to be separate.