Hicks

[nytwinsfan]

 

The Twins can not count on Walker or Kepler to arrive and produce. Expect them to go back and forth between the majors and AAA the first few years. Arcia is needed in RF next year.

 

Ok, well I'll let you duke it out with sane, who takes the opposite view (I'm somewhere in the middle). I'd be fine with Arcia in the outfield with Rosario (and Buxton of course) against righties, at least until Kepler or Walker is ready. Hicks should be playing in the outfield instead of Arcia against lefties though, and in 8th or 9th inning games with a couple of run Twins lead. As soon as Walker or (more likely) Kepler is ready though, I'd move Arcia to DH. Obviously we can't count on Walker or Kepler to arrive and produce, but neither can we count on Arcia to arrive and produce. He might hack again, or he might continue to be injured.  I'm more bullish on Kepler. He doesn't have the high-upside power bat that Walker does, but I think there is a good chance he'll hit for decent average and walks and play solid defense, possibly even right away next year.

[spinowner]

 

The Twins can not count on Walker or Kepler to arrive and produce. Expect them to go back and forth between the majors and AAA the first few years. Arcia is needed in RF next year.

Hicks or Rosario would play right. Arcia would play left.

[Twinfan & Dad]

I couldn't agree more with the impatience SOME Twins fans have have with Hicks. I do remember another center fielder we had named Carlos Gomez who played what 2 seasons with the Twins. I know that there were questions with his attitude and his production was subpar. Maybe with Hunters guidence and some patience he comes into his own and we reep the benefits with this center fielder.

[jimbo92107]

 

True, but no way he is going to outplay any of Arcia, Rosario, or Kepler against RHP.

Maybe not offensively, but an outfield of Rosario LF, Buxton CF, Hicks RF would not let a lot of fly balls hit the ground, and Hicks's arm in RF would become as feared as Cuddyer's arm was, after a month or so to adjust. None of the guys you mentioned has a gun quite like Hicks, or a glove, or the speed.

 

All things considered, Hicks is very close to being an everyday right fielder when Buxton gets back, even with Arcia and Kepler around. Plus, there's no guarantee that either of those guys will sustain their minor league numbers in the majors. Arcia had serious problems with plate discipline and seemed to lose a lot of his initial power. Kepler will remain a complete question mark until after his first cup of coffee.

 

I agree that both Arcia and Kepler should get a shot this season, which is a good one for testing out prospects. But I wouldn't bet on either Arcia or Kepler out-playing Hicks, even for platooning their lefty bats. Hicks's defense might turn out to be too valuable to lose out there, and his lefty bat is getting better.

[USAFChief]

Before anyone gets too excited about Kepler, and how he compares to Hicks:

 

Kepler's minor league slash line:  .278/.354/.436  .790

 

Hicks:  .275/.379/.426  .805

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Maybe not offensively, but an outfield of Rosario LF, Buxton CF, Hicks RF would not let a lot of fly balls hit the ground, and Hicks's arm in RF would become as feared as Cuddyer's arm was, after a month or so to adjust. None of the guys you mentioned has a gun quite like Hicks, or a glove, or the speed.

 

All things considered, Hicks is very close to being an everyday right fielder when Buxton gets back, even with Arcia and Kepler around. Plus, there's no guarantee that either of those guys will sustain their minor league numbers in the majors. Arcia had serious problems with plate discipline and seemed to lose a lot of his initial power. Kepler will remain a complete question mark until after his first cup of coffee.

 

I agree that both Arcia and Kepler should get a shot this season, which is a good one for testing out prospects. But I wouldn't bet on either Arcia or Kepler out-playing Hicks, even for platooning their lefty bats. Hicks's defense might turn out to be too valuable to lose out there, and his lefty bat is getting better.

 

Just so we're clear, this is the same Hicks who is hitting .230/.266/.284 (.550) against right-handed pitching this year and hit .178/.300/.212 (.512) last year?

 

Hicks is a better defender than Kepler, for sure, and much better than Arcia, but there is little to no chance that defensive value is going to make up for his above numbers against righties when compared to Kepler or Arcia. I'm all for playing Hicks against lefties, and putting him in the outfield during the late innings with a Twins lead, but that's it, unless he completely turns his hitting against righties around. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Before anyone gets too excited about Kepler, and how he compares to Hicks:

 

Kepler's minor league slash line:  .278/.354/.436  .790

 

Hicks:  .275/.379/.426  .805

Kepler is also 22, while Hicks was in the minors into his age 25 season in order to put up those numbers. Kepler has also been repeatedly injured and also started playing baseball against serious competition when he was 16. Kepler is far from a sure thing, for sure, and two or three years ago, I would have taken Hicks over Kepler without hestitation, but things change, and recent performance carries more weight, suggesting a plus defense platoon outfielder against lefties (Hicks) and a average regular corner outfielder (Kepler) with a small but not tiny chance for more.

[clone52]

I really like the idea of Rosario, Hicks and and Buxton in the same outfield.  I think it would help the team tremendously.  Assuming Buxton ends up being a .275+ hitter, our offense should be okay.  Right now, Hicks, SS and C are kind of black holes offensively, but I really only think you need to fix 1 of those 3.  You can live with 2 like that.

 

Plus, Hicks is improving.  The numbers say so.  

 

First of, I'm very encouraged by him showing the willingness to overhaul his approach at the plate.  The changes he made as a left handed hitter show me a willingness to work.

 

As for the numbers, in 2013, he struck out once every 3.7 plate appearances.  In 2014, he struck out once every 4.0 plate appearances.  This year, he struck out once every 6.7 appearances.  That is a huge improvement.  For comparison, Joe Mauer has struck out once every 8.3 PAs for his career (6.0 PAs this year), Brian Dozier has struck out once every 5.0 PAs this year.  Plouffe is once every 5.6 PAs.  Hunter is 6.24 PAs.  Hicks has gone from poor to above league average.   Currently he is 73rd out of 337 players with 100 or more PAs.

 

His batting average is as high as its ever been, even though his BABIP is way below league average and near his career low.  If his BABIP was around .275, his Batting Average would be .254 and if his BABIP was around .300 (like last year), he'd Batting Average would be .274.

 

The only thing down for him this year is walks.

[twinsfanstreif]

I know this makes people angry (for some reason) but I feel like it's time to try Mauer back at Catcher. He Was moved due to the concussion and we didn't have a 1B at the time, plus it was believed that Pinto was gonna be the Catcher of the future. Well times have changed, he's several years removed from the concussion and maybe as early as next year we're gonna have a logjam at the corners and DH with Sano, Plouffe, ABW, Kepler, Hunter, Rosario, Vargas, Arcia, and Hicks along with virtually no one at catcher. I believe that Mauer could still play at a high level at catcher for at least a few more years and it would allow at bats for some of the youngsters to develop. Just my thoughts

[Linus]

I know this makes people angry (for some reason) but I feel like it's time to try Mauer back at Catcher. He Was moved due to the concussion and we didn't have a 1B at the time, plus it was believed that Pinto was gonna be the Catcher of the future. Well times have changed, he's several years removed from the concussion and maybe as early as next year we're gonna have a logjam at the corners and DH with Sano, Plouffe, ABW, Kepler, Hunter, Rosario, Vargas, Arcia, and Hicks along with virtually no one at catcher. I believe that Mauer could still play at a high level at catcher for at least a few more years and it would allow at bats for some of the youngsters to develop. Just my thoughts

Nobody gets angry it's just.not.gonna.happen. ever...

[twinsfanstreif]

why do people say it like that though? like it's absolutely out of the question and no one ever explains it, they just stubbornly say "NO! Not gonna happen! Move on!" Did he completely lose his ability to catch? has he been brainwashed to forget everything he did his entire career? It's not crazy to think of especially considering the need and the logjam we have

Nobody gets angry it's just.not.gonna.happen. ever...

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

why do people say it like that though? like it's absolutely out of the question and no one ever explains it, they just stubbornly say "NO! Not gonna happen! Move on!" Did he completely lose his ability to catch? has he been brainwashed to forget everything he did his entire career? It's not crazy to think of especially considering the need and the logjam we have

He suffered a pretty serious brain injury that affected his ability to get up in the morning and not feel dizzy.

 

So maybe that's a valid reason to not put him in a position where people intentionally throw 95 mph baseballs at his face.

[jimmer]

Twins will never put him back at catcher.  They aren't going to put him back at a spot that, more than any other position, puts a player in danger for a concussion after he's already had one that put him on the shelf for so long and the effects lingered even longer.

 

Yes, one can get one batting, sliding and getting hit on the head with a knee, etc.  But the catcher position makes the possibility even higher and they just aren't going to take a chance with him.  And that is a very smart decision.

[Linus]

That and the Twins have been asked about this many times. Each time the answer is a decisive no.

[DaveW]

This last week hicks reminds me a lot of when hunter finally started hitting and "stuck" even his outs are hard hit these days.

[twinsfanstreif]

Twins will never put him back at catcher.  They aren't going to put him back at a spot that, more than any other position, puts a player in danger for a concussion after he's already had one that put him on the shelf for so long and the effects lingered even longer.

 

Yes, one can get one batting, sliding and getting hit on the head with a knee, etc.  But the catcher position makes the possibility even higher and they just aren't going to take a chance with him.  And that is a very smart decision.

I don't doubt you but I would like to see statistics of concussions in baseball and how they occurred. I for the like of me can't remember a ton of catchers sustaining them. Never is a pretty bold statement, I feel like if it was Joe's decision than ok, but if Joe comes out next year or in 2 years and says he wants catch to do the twins just say sorry, we said we wouldn't. I just don't get people making absolute statements on Joe and the Twins behalf

[Linus]

I don't doubt you but I would like to see statistics of concussions in baseball and how they occurred. I for the like of me can't remember a ton of catchers sustaining them. Never is a pretty bold statement, I feel like if it was Joe's decision than ok, but if Joe comes out next year or in 2 years and says he wants catch to do the twins just say sorry, we said we wouldn't. I just don't get people making absolute statements on Joe and the Twins behalf

Please read my earlier post. This isn't our opinions this is what the Twins have stated publicly multiple times. If your saying that you don't like that, fine. Otherwise you're tilting at windmills.

[DaveW]

Mauer isn't going back to catcher, people just need to accept this and move on. It. Isn't. Happening. Ever.

 

Talking about it is as fruitless as talking about Johan Santana coming back for the twins and becoming a Cy Young candidate again. It's beyond time to move on.

[JB_Iowa]

 

I don't doubt you but I would like to see statistics of concussions in baseball and how they occurred. I for the like of me can't remember a ton of catchers sustaining them. Never is a pretty bold statement, I feel like if it was Joe's decision than ok, but if Joe comes out next year or in 2 years and says he wants catch to do the twins just say sorry, we said we wouldn't. I just don't get people making absolute statements on Joe and the Twins behalf

 

 

Seeing what Morneau is struggling with (AGAIN on the 60 day DL), how can you even contemplate doing this?

The man has a wife, 2 kids -- have you no concern for his well-being?

[spinowner]

 

I don't doubt you but I would like to see statistics of concussions in baseball and how they occurred. I for the like of me can't remember a ton of catchers sustaining them. Never is a pretty bold statement, I feel like if it was Joe's decision than ok, but if Joe comes out next year or in 2 years and says he wants catch to do the twins just say sorry, we said we wouldn't. I just don't get people making absolute statements on Joe and the Twins behalf

In years past brain injuries were very poorly documented. It's really only been in the last 10 years or so that these injuries have started to receive more concern and it's way overdue. In spite of this there are still accusations of players being "Nancy boys", or lazy, or faking. Look at Justin Morneau, for example. It took four years after his concussion in 2010 for him to finally be able to produce up to his abilities, and in all likelihood his most recent one has ended his career. In Mauer's case there is a strong correlation to his concussion and a significant dropoff in his production. We (and especially he) can be encouraged by his recent improvement and hope his recovery continues. To place him at higher risk of subsequent concussions, which increase the risk of permanent impairment, would be a very bad decision. Mauer knows it, his doctors know it, the team knows it and most of us here know it. That's why there is a high level of frustration with suggestions that he be moved back to catcher.

[soofootinsfan37]

 

why do people say it like that though? like it's absolutely out of the question and no one ever explains it, they just stubbornly say "NO! Not gonna happen! Move on!" Did he completely lose his ability to catch? has he been brainwashed to forget everything he did his entire career? It's not crazy to think of especially considering the need and the logjam we have

If he takes another foul ball to the mask, he might be brainwashed, and then what to you have? He looks to be finding his groove now that he has abandoned the pull experiment. Leave him where he is at, so that he can remember the names of his friends and family after he is done playing baseball.

[TheLeviathan]

So that one guy....Hicks.....almost hit another one out last night. Encouraging!

 

Am I in the right place?

[spinowner]

Back on topic, I'll echo what others have said about Hicks that he reminds me of when Hunter came back to the majors to stay in 2000. He had a certain confidence in his swing that hadn't been there before and I'm hoping that we're seeing the beginning of the same career arc with Hicks.

[Mike Sixel]

Still not a buyer on Hicks. There just is not evidence he can hit. Maybe he will, but so far, he isn't. Defensively he looks better this time around, that's very nice, and often undervalued.

 

And looking at minor league career numbers, and not comparing AA numbers? That seems.......like cherry picking stats to make a point.

[Squirrel]

 

Back on topic, I'll echo what others have said about Hicks that he reminds me of when Hunter came back to the majors to stay in 2000. He had a certain confidence in his swing that hadn't been there before and I'm hoping that we're seeing the beginning of the same career arc with Hicks.

Mod note: Thank you.

 

Peripherals are expected. But if you want to take a peripheral and make it a main focus, please start a new thread. Leave the Mauer moving back to catcher discussion out of this discussion on Hicks. 

[clone52]

 

Still not a buyer on Hicks. There just is not evidence he can hit. Maybe he will, but so far, he isn't. Defensively he looks better this time around, that's very nice, and often undervalued.

 

And looking at minor league career numbers, and not comparing AA numbers? That seems.......like cherry picking stats to make a point.

 

Except there is evidence.  His K% is way, way down this year.

[sane]

 

I know this makes people angry (for some reason) but I feel like it's time to try Mauer back at Catcher. He Was moved due to the concussion and we didn't have a 1B at the time, plus it was believed that Pinto was gonna be the Catcher of the future. Well times have changed, he's several years removed from the concussion and maybe as early as next year we're gonna have a logjam at the corners and DH with Sano, Plouffe, ABW, Kepler, Hunter, Rosario, Vargas, Arcia, and Hicks along with virtually no one at catcher. I believe that Mauer could still play at a high level at catcher for at least a few more years and it would allow at bats for some of the youngsters to develop. Just my thoughts

How does this relate to Hicks?

[USAFChief]

Still not a buyer on Hicks. There just is not evidence he can hit. Maybe he will, but so far, he isn't. Defensively he looks better this time around, that's very nice, and often undervalued.

 

And looking at minor league career numbers, and not comparing AA numbers? That seems.......like cherry picking stats to make a point.

Career minor league numbers is cherry picking, but using a half season at AA isn't?

 

FTR, Hicks had a .844 OPS at AA, at the same age as Kepler is now. With less minor league time to get there.

 

I agree Hicks still has a lot of room to improve, and a lot to prove. But he's as talented as Kepler, IMO, probably more so, which is my point, and I'd be careful in writing him off, and/or making assumptions about Kepler successfully manning an OF spot by 2016.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Except there is evidence.  His K% is way, way down this year.

 

One stat, imo, doesn't usually tell much of a story......

[brvama]

 

Career minor league numbers is cherry picking, but using a half season at AA isn't?

FTR, Hicks had a .844 OPS at AA, at the same age as Kepler is now. With less minor league time to get there.

I agree Hicks still has a lot of room to improve, and a lot to prove. But he's as talented as Kepler, IMO, probably more so, which is my point, and I'd be careful in writing him off, and/or making assumptions about Kepler successfully manning an OF spot by 2016.

I'm in your camp about Hicks. 

 

However. we really can't compare age performance of the two for the simple reason Kepler had a much larger learning curve than Hicks.  (Germany vs. US baseball experience.)  That said - Kepler is very intriguing and has fans excited about the future as he improves. 

 

I worry, though,  if he'll have enough time to pan out for the Twins b/c 2015 is already his second option year, IIRC.