Molitor is a mediocre manager

[mikecgrimes]

 

Yes but I have given up on that fight as managers will never put in their closers in th 7th and 8th typically

Once you get to extras there is no excuse not to have Perkins in.

 

Actually a "sure thing" closer should pitch the 1st and 2nd.

[jimmer]

 

 I'm on record at this point that Paul Molitor is not better then Gardenhire, if he fails to go .500 with this roster he needs to be one and done, no need to waste time with a 60 year old who will never get it.

I'm sorry, but I'm not sure why you think the talent on this team should result in a .500 record or better. Lot of rookies coming and going, not a bevy of quality veterans, starting pitching staff that is questionable (playing over their heads) and a poor bullpen. If our win count starts with 7, that's be nice to see, but putting expectations of .500 on a team very much in transition is unwarranted.

[mikecgrimes]

 

 

If you don't like Molitor, there were more options than just keeping Gardy. I'm glad Gardy is gone.  I've wanted him gone for many, many years (well before the consistent losing started).

 

 

Through 2007, it looks like .539.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/352

Better question how often does the home team win in extra's knowing in most innings you just need one run has to be a huge advantage.

[jimmer]

 

A note about extra innings game.

 

The home team, on average, wins extra innings game .531 of the time.

 

This is logical, as we know, because the home team literally gets to bat AFTER the visiting team scores or doesn't score, EVERY TIME.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/155

 

(and surely there are other sources for this type of statistic)

It's good info, but home teams win more games than away teams overall, period.  That advantage you point to in extra innings occurs in 9 inning games as well.

[mikecgrimes]

 

 

I'm sorry, but I'm not sure why you think the talent on this team should result in a .500 record or better. Lot of rookies coming and going, not a bevy of quality veterans, starting pitching staff that is questionable (playing over their heads) and a poor bullpen. If our win count starts with 7, that's be nice to see, but putting expectations of .500 on a team very much in transition is unwarranted.

 

If they fail to go over .500 part of it will be the front office not making any bold moves, I know Buxton and Sano will be huge factors next year while this year I'm not expecting a lot, and thats got to be good for a handful of wins or more, but you don't make the jump to 93 wins by failing to make a huge jump this year.  Yes they lost a lot of games last year, but it looks worse then it really was because they really struggles after all hope was lost the second half of those seasons.  They should remain in contention at least until the final 2 weeks, if the go 4-10 after being 4+ games out and finish with 79 or 80 wins fine, but falling below .500 in the next few weeks and never getting back over it would not be acceptable to me.

[DJSim22]

The Twins are lacking an 8th inning reliever for sure, but I don't see one suddenly arriving.  Molitor is going to have to mix and match or run Perkins out in the 8th more often. 

[TheLeviathan]

From the second our second best reliever blew the lead our chances were minimal. It was our biggest weakness versus their greatest strength.

 

The bullpen needs some friggin help. Now or all the positivity of the first three months are going to slowly get choked away.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The bullpen needs some friggin help. Now or all the positivity of the first three months are going to slowly get choked away.

 

The bullpen has been a ticking time bomb from day 1. The Twins weren't serious about it then and aren't serious about it now. It's just one of those things... there's really not an explanation other than a lack of decisiveness (to put it kindly). 

[USAFChief]

The bullpen has been a ticking time bomb from day 1. The Twins weren't serious about it then and aren't serious about it now. It's just one of those things... there's really not an explanation other than a lack of decisiveness (to put it kindly).

 

Concur.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Through 2007, it looks like .539.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/352

Your stat is more up to date than mine (.531). I see that one year the home team won .575 of the time. That's a huge, natural advantage.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

 

It's good info, but home teams win more games than away teams overall, period.  That advantage you point to in extra innings occurs in 9 inning games as well.

"Over the last 50 years, home team winning percentage has been around .539 on average."

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/352

 

So yes there is a statistical mess there to untangle.

[USAFChief]

I'm too lazy to look it up, but Im 99 percent sure there is a home field/court/rink advantage for all four of the major pro team sports.

 

IIRC baseball's is actually the smallest of the four.

[LaBombo]

 

Should have never fired Gardy.

 

I... what?!?!?

 

 

First off, let's not do away with history, either of the Twins or of baseball in general.    Gardenhire's teams averaged 96 losses over his last 4 seasons.    That's gotten every non-expansion manager since World War II fired.

 

Yes, those teams lacked talent.    But to excuse Gardenhire's record they would have needed to be the least talented rosters in modern baseball history.  They weren't even the worst in baseball during their four year run of futility.

 

But even setting aside the mandate of history that led to Gardy's firing, how upset can you be that the Twins are 42-38 on the 4th of July instead of 38-47 under Gardy on the same date last year?

 

And if your argument is that a turnaround this big is due to greater talent, then you're welcome to make the case, but good luck.

 

With the exception of Hunter, who is having a nice season, the offense is mostly the same guys Gardenhire had last season.  None of the young potential future superstars has broken out yet, and only Rosario has even made a net positive contribution.

 

As far as starting pitching, Molitor and Allen have gotten more from Pelfrey and Gibson, and a little less from Hughes.  The real difference has been Milone + May, 2015   >>>>   Nolasco + Correia, 2014,

 

So with the same guys at least to some degree available to Gardy and Andy, Molitor and Allen have turned the worst rotation in the AL into the 5th best.

 

The bullpen is a work in progress for Molitor, both in terms of personnel and usage, but despite some high-profile late/close failures they're performing nearly up to the level of last year's pen despite the flameout of veterans Duensing, Thielbar, and Stauffer.

 

And on a purely personal and subjective note, managers always get second-guessed about bullpen strategy, and after over a decade of tearing my hair out over Gardy's relief decisions I was ready for a new manager and maybe some hair plugs.

 

That leaves defense, and I'm not going to judge that until there's a full season of stats to help measure the effectiveness of Molitor's defensive calls.  Purely from a standpoint of watching the game there's no comparison, as the shifts and alignments called by Molitor's crew are far more frequent, varied, and entertaining to watch.

 

Bottom line for me is that with almost all the same players that Gardy had, Molitor has put together nearly the same amount of offense, much better pitching, a much more fun defense to watch than Gardy did last year.   He's four wins over .500 despite essentially zero run differential.    Not bad for three months on the job.

 

PS,  Yes, Hunter and his mix CD's of of post-victory dance party music deserve turnaround credit, but it's hard for me to picture even that transformation taking place under Gardy after his grumpy four year slide.

[Boom Boom]

The bullpen has been a ticking time bomb from day 1. The Twins weren't serious about it then and aren't serious about it now. It's just one of those things... there's really not an explanation other than a lack of decisiveness (to put it kindly).

TR's approach to bullpen construction has always been 1. establish a closer, and 2. backfill the remaining spots with journeymen and injury reclamation projects. He's had success doing things that way before, but if there aren't a good number of relievers on the farm ready to step in, then there's a need for a major league bullpen signing or three.

 

Maybe they were counting on the odd man out of the rotation stepping in and the Santana suspension threw a monkey wrench in that plan. Regardless, the bullpen was clearly not a priority last offseason.

[TheLeviathan]

Bullpen building has always been one of the best strengths Ryan has had, but it's also been a tightrope walk to make that happen every year.

 

Was a tough year to have their method blow up in their face.

[LaBombo]

The bullpen has been a disappointment, but not a disaster.  Their ERA is 5th highest in the AL, but their blown save total is tied for second lowest in all of MLB.  Their 12 losses ranks them middle of the pack in the AL.

 

 

[blairpaul715]

 

If you don't like Molitor, there were more options than just keeping Gardy. I'm glad Gardy is gone.  I've wanted him gone for many, many years (well before the consistent losing started).

I have said this for many yrs also, i just didnt like the way he managed, and his boring demeanor didnt help like him........................but when they were winning games, cant say too much.

[blairpaul715]

 

I've never been impressed with Molitor, clearly the defensive shifting has helped a lot with the pitching but given the success of the starting pitching we should be in a much better position.  Molitor is giving up outs on the bases over and over.  First day of spring training it was all about taking the extra base, but he can't give his players anything that gives them an advantage.  This reminds me a lot of when Christian Ponder replaced Donavan McNabb everyone was impressed because his flaws were less annoying.  I'm on record at this point that Paul Molitor is not better then Gardenhire, if he fails to go .500 with this roster he needs to be one and done, no need to waste time with a 60 year old who will never get it.

Completely disagree, i am very optimistic and before season started, i was hoping to be .500, i certainly wasnt expecting it..........Somewhere their is a poll as to what Twins Daily posters felt the Twins would win, i would bet most guesses were in the 72-75 range..............and IMO Molitor does get it, you see him talking to his players and trying to help them in the game they are in, he is not just a behind closed doors manager, if he sees something he seems to tell his players, have seen it in the game telecast when he brings a group of players together for an in game adjustment or what he sees from his perspective........I like it.

[Danchat]

 

The bullpen has been a disappointment, but not a disaster.  Their ERA is 5th highest in the AL, but their blown save total is tied for second lowest in all of MLB.  Their 12 losses ranks them middle of the pack in the AL.

Well yeah, Perkins has been perfect in save opportunities, so of course they don't have many blown saves.

 

If we didn't have Perkins in the bullpen... yikes. It'd be by far the worst bullpen in baseball.

[twinsnorth49]

The bullpen has been a ticking time bomb from day 1. The Twins weren't serious about it then and aren't serious about it now. It's just one of those things... there's really not an explanation other than a lack of decisiveness (to put it kindly).

Yep, the only thing more disappointing than the bullpen itself has been the team's reluctance to address it.

[h2oface]

 

Heard Reusse speculating Mientkiwicz could get the Miami job when it opens up probably in a few weeks.

 

It would be very painful watch Mientkiewicz manage and win elsewhere. It could be another move like keeping Brad Childress when you just could have promoted the future Super Bowl winning Mike Tomlin in house.

[nicksaviking]

Yikes! It doesn't look like any other team is knocking on Gardenhire's door. Joe Maddon - clubs were pounding. I think that says a lot. Doug Mientkiewicz still gets my vote. I hope Molitor is succesful, but wants to retire after a couple few years. I think youth and savvy is needed with this generation of players. (I understand that Maddon is 61). I look forward to younger managers.

I wanted to clean house and start new with fresh voices from the outside. However if you're looking for Joe Maddon, you'd pick Molitor, not Mientiewicz. Doug is admittedly old school, like Gardy, while Molitor at least buys into some modern tactics.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I... what?!?!?

 

 

First off, let's not do away with history, either of the Twins or of baseball in general.    Gardenhire's teams averaged 96 losses over his last 4 seasons.    That's gotten every non-expansion manager since World War II fired.

 

Yes, those teams lacked talent.    But to excuse Gardenhire's record they would have needed to be the least talented rosters in modern baseball history.  They weren't even the worst in baseball during their four year run of futility.

 

But even setting aside the mandate of history that led to Gardy's firing, how upset can you be that the Twins are 42-38 on the 4th of July instead of 38-47 under Gardy on the same date last year?

 

And if your argument is that a turnaround this big is due to greater talent, then you're welcome to make the case, but good luck.

 

With the exception of Hunter, who is having a nice season, the offense is mostly the same guys Gardenhire had last season.  None of the young potential future superstars has broken out yet, and only Rosario has even made a net positive contribution.

 

As far as starting pitching, Molitor and Allen have gotten more from Pelfrey and Gibson, and a little less from Hughes.  The real difference has been Milone + May, 2015   >>>>   Nolasco + Correia, 2014,

 

So with the same guys at least to some degree available to Gardy and Andy, Molitor and Allen have turned the worst rotation in the AL into the 5th best.

 

The bullpen is a work in progress for Molitor, both in terms of personnel and usage, but despite some high-profile late/close failures they're performing nearly up to the level of last year's pen despite the flameout of veterans Duensing, Thielbar, and Stauffer.

 

And on a purely personal and subjective note, managers always get second-guessed about bullpen strategy, and after over a decade of tearing my hair out over Gardy's relief decisions I was ready for a new manager and maybe some hair plugs.

 

That leaves defense, and I'm not going to judge that until there's a full season of stats to help measure the effectiveness of Molitor's defensive calls.  Purely from a standpoint of watching the game there's no comparison, as the shifts and alignments called by Molitor's crew are far more frequent, varied, and entertaining to watch.

 

Bottom line for me is that with almost all the same players that Gardy had, Molitor has put together nearly the same amount of offense, much better pitching, a much more fun defense to watch than Gardy did last year.   He's four wins over .500 despite essentially zero run differential.    Not bad for three months on the job.

 

PS,  Yes, Hunter and his mix CD's of of post-victory dance party music deserve turnaround credit, but it's hard for me to picture even that transformation taking place under Gardy after his grumpy four year slide.

i was in 100% agreement until the T-Nutz dance parties. Winning is fun, and losing is not.

[LaBombo]

 

Well yeah, Perkins has been perfect in save opportunities, so of course they don't have many blown saves.

 

If we didn't have Perkins in the bullpen... yikes. It'd be by far the worst bullpen in baseball.

 

Perkins is definitely carrying a mediocre pen, but the blown save stat tells more of a story than that.

 

The average MLB team has about 9 blown saves already, and a baker's dozen are in double digits.  Yet only two full time closers have more than 3 blown saves, and the average appears to be around 2 per closer.

 

That means that on average most bullpens' middle relievers have blown about 8 saves so far this season.  So as poorly as the Twins middle relievers have pitched, they haven't underperformed much compared to other teams in terms of protecting leads, at least as far as blown saves are concerned.

[jimmer]

Three bullpens in the AL have allowed a higher percentage of inherited runs to score than the Twins.  Only two bullpens in the AL have allowed more inherited runs scored.

[twinsnorth49]

Well, so much for this thread....until tomorrow at least.

[The Wise One]

_{Reliever statistics}

_{Blown save.. Means that the bullpen gave up the lead when it was close. By fangraphs the Twins have only 5. No complete games by starters, so that would mean unless the reliever gave up 4 runs before getting out of there for the loss being not to be a blown save. Loss, the bullpen has 12. Middle of the pack for the league. Those numbers combined would seem to hint the bullpen overall is not losing games for the Twins at a worse than league average. Their low win total would say they are doing much to keep them in the game or get the offense time to get them back in the game. That is the problem with mediocrity.}

[Brock Beauchamp]

Blown save.. Means that the bullpen gave up the lead when it was close. By fangraphs the Twins have only 5. No complete games by starters, so that would mean unless the reliever gave up 4 runs before getting out of there for the loss being not to be a blown save. Loss, the bullpen has 12. Middle of the pack for the league. Those numbers combined would seem to hint the bullpen overall is not losing games for the Twins at a worse than league average. Their low win total would say they are doing much to keep them in the game or get the offense time to get them back in the game. That is the problem with mediocrity.

The bullpen massively over performed for 6-8 weeks and many of us said a regression was in the cards. I wonder what the splits look like in June.

[sane]

 

" the bullpen was clearly not a priority last offseason."

Boyer, Graham, Thompson, Meyer, IN.

 

Burton, Thielbar, Tonkin, Oliveros, Swarzak, Achter OUT

 

 

 

[drjim]

I think the need to upgrade the pen is obvious, but the options to do so are much less so. Teams aren't exactly floating good relievers out there. And I hope we are beyond the idea of Lester Oliveros being the solution. And Rogers might (to emphasize, might) be a slight upgrade on Thompson and/or Duensing but that is far from a sure thing as well. Doesn't mean that can't give it a try, but other than Meyer there really isn't a potential difference maker in the minors.

 

The best hope was always Pressly taking a step forward (and now he might be hurt), or maybe Graham or Tonkin doing something.