Dream Trade Target: Aroldis Champman

[SwainZag]

 

Whatever Aroldis will cost, it's too much for a guy who pitches 70 innings.

 

He's a fantastic reliever, there's no doubt about that... But for the price of Chapman, you can pick up a less-talented starter or position player who will have more of an impact because they either play every game or have overwhelming control of a game outcome every fifth day.

 

It'd be great to have him but even if he pitches zeroes for the entirety of the season, it's unlikely he'll return the value you paid for him.

 

Not only the prospects he would cost, but he's making 8M this year, has an arbitration year next year then would likely warrant a big time contract.  Paying a reliever 10+ mil a season to throw like you 70 innings a season is too much, especially for a franchise like the Twins.  That being said, he is a helleva pitcher.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Whatever Aroldis will cost, it's too much for a guy who pitches 70 innings.

 

He's a fantastic reliever, there's no doubt about that... But for the price of Chapman, you can pick up a less-talented starter or position player who will have more of an impact because they either play every game or have overwhelming control of a game outcome every fifth day.

 

It'd be great to have him but even if he pitches zeroes for the entirety of the season, it's unlikely he'll return the value you paid for him.

 

given the number of MLB starters, plus Berrios, plus all the others in AAA or AA I can't see any "middling" starter having any impact on this team at all. Zero. I don't get why people keep bringing this up as a legit option for this team.

[nicksaviking]

When he first came over, most people assumed he would start eventually. He never did, mostly because the Reds had a ton of young talented arms and they were winning with Chapman in the pen.

 

That ship has probably sailed, but if the front office thought they might be able to stretch him out for 2016 all while paying closer prices, I'd listen.

 

Of course we would have to listen to 1996 Rick Aguilera comparisons for awhile.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not a big fan of paying a huge price for relievers as I tend to think they are overrated.  Don't get me wrong, I like a nice shut down pen, but we have arms coming up in house that will do that, and I'd rather give them a shot at the majors.  I get that Chapman is one of the best, but you'll be getting something like 90-100 innings out of him between this season and next.  No way I trade a prospect like Kepler plus someone else.  I'd offer Nick Burdi.  I don't think they'd do that (I wouldn't if I was the Reds). 

[dbminn]

Arcia or Walker and Burdi for Chapman. Our starting pitchers are consistently giving us 6+ innings, so a second shutdown reliever would be nice.  I'd take Chapman for this price, although I would prefer a lower cost right-handed reliever.

 

RE: Kepler. I wouldn't trade him yet. Too much potential compared to his current value, IMO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

There's never going to be room enough to give all the youngsters a fair shot. I'd trade Kepler/Harrison/Arcia/Rosario/Hicks/Pinto types even if we don't get equal value, because I really doubt we are ever going to see what some of these guys can do if they don't get consistant 500 or so at bats in a season, and as it is, most of these guys will be lucky to get half that.

 

Agreed here, but I think you need to figure out who the best are and then trade off the ones that won't be as good.  Not quite sure I'd want to be dealing most of these guys (especially since half of them would be selling low). 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd add, the guys I'd be looking at trading are the Pat Deans and Taylor Rogers of the world.  ML ready back end talent.  We don't really have room for it.  They could probably bring back a decent reliever (not Chapman), but given what's behind them and what's in front, they won't see much time other than for occasional injuries. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Agreed here, but I think you need to figure out who the best are and then trade off the ones that won't be as good.  Not quite sure I'd want to be dealing most of these guys (especially since half of them would be selling low). 

 

Uh, once you figure that out, the others have almost no value.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Uh, once you figure that out, the others have almost no value.

 

Not sure I agree there.  It is entirely possible to have a guy playing well in the high minors (and well in his injury call ups) who is blocked by better guys.  That's the guy you trade. 

[nicksaviking]

Not sure I agree there.  It is entirely possible to have a guy playing well in the high minors (and well in his injury call ups) who is blocked by better guys.  That's the guy you trade.

 

I agree, it might be a huge crapshoot though. The alternative almost certainly is letting guys waste away and getting nothing for them.

 

This situation happened a dozen years ago or so when young Hunter and Jones were locked into the OF and the Twins had younger Cuddyer, Kubel, Brian Buchanon, Michael Restovich, Michael Ryan, Bobby Kielty, Dustin Mohr, Garrett Jones and Lew Ford crushing the upper minors in about a four year stretch.

 

They did well flipping Buchanon and Kielty. They need to do this again. They did OK last decade, but could have done better. Even moving two players didn't clear enough room to give Ryan, Restovich and Jones an honest look, and those guys were highly thought of prospects.

[Brock Beauchamp]

given the number of MLB starters, plus Berrios, plus all the others in AAA or AA I can't see any "middling" starter having any impact on this team at all. Zero. I don't get why people keep bringing this up as a legit option for this team.

It was an example of how value translates to the field, not a specific request that the Twins go get a starter. Relievers are just bad value because they have so little impact on a season. No matter how good a reliever is, they only pitch one in 20 (!) innings.

[Andrew]

Arcia/Vargas/ Pinto to start with a Tyler Duffey or Jason Wheeler type prospect. Get rid of some of the DH types. We have too many of 'em.

[nicksaviking]

Arcia/Vargas/ Pinto to start with a Tyler Duffey or Jason Wheeler type prospect. Get rid of some of the DH types. We have too many of 'em.

I agree, not sure an NL team would though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree, not sure an NL team would though.

Ell Oh Ell.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know who I'd deal, but I'd be targeting guys like Clippard or Brad Ziegler or someone of that ilk.  I don't need them to even be that lights out, but we're going to need more depth and probably very soon.

[DaveW]

A huge reason why the twins are 11 above 500 is because they have won all but one game when leading after 6. (The royals were able to outplay their projections last year because of similar numbers)

 

If the twins want this success this season to continue they will need these leads to continue to stand, especially since the rotation, while solid isn't exactly full of guys going 7 or 8 strong innings night in and night out.boyer and co have been awesome so far, but the chances they keep up this is very very small, which is why adding a premium (it doesn't even have to be chapman) 8th inning guy is very key IMO. Would a stud SS or Ace pitcher impact more? Of course, but those asking prices will be out of this world.

 

If the twins can snag chapman without having to give up buxton, sano, berrios, Stewart, Gordon or Kepler I think you have to do it, even if you have to give 2-3 solid pieces like a polanco, arcia, Thorpe etc

[nicksaviking]

If the twins can snag chapman without having to give up buxton, sano, berrios, Stewart, Gordon or Kepler I think you have to do it, even if you have to give 2-3 solid pieces like a polanco, arcia, Thorpe etc

I would totally dangle Stewart and see who bites. He actually might be the perfect bait. I can acknowledge that it's too early to give up on him, but if he finishes the year with this current futile strikeout rate in A ball, he might not even be a top 100 prospect. I like Gonsalves and Hu better now and even the injured Thiroe. I'd be OK if another team still values him and have no problem if he latter proved me wrong.

[Andrew]

If the twins can snag chapman without having to give up buxton, sano, berrios, Stewart, Gordon or Kepler I think you have to do it, even if you have to give 2-3 solid pieces like a polanco, arcia, Thorpe etc

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you can't trade players on the DL

[kab21]

I think you guys have gone a little bit too much fangraphsy and WARy in this thread.  An elite RP'er has a huge impact in a game.  Hell even if you use WAR he's a 3 WAR pitcher and IIRC that doesn't factor in the leverage of using your top RP'ers in close games late.  To compare him to a middling SP because that SP pitches more innings is a poor argument.  Closers themselves are overrated but the ability to shut down games in the 7/8/9 is an amazing advantage for a team to have particularly in the playoffs when you kick your worst (or worst 2) pitchers to the curb because of the extra days off.

 

I would instantly trade Arcia or Meyer (plus others) for Chapman.  I would trade both of them for Chapman but realistically it's going to cost much more than that.

[DaveW]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you can't trade players on the DL

It rarely happens, but you can trade players on the DL

[Lonestar]

 

I would instantly trade Arcia or Meyer (plus others) for Chapman.  I would trade both of them for Chapman but realistically it's going to cost much more than that.

And that's what Fangraphs said. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think you guys have gone a little bit too much fangraphsy and WARy in this thread.  An elite RP'er has a huge impact in a game.  Hell even if you use WAR he's a 3 WAR pitcher and IIRC that doesn't factor in the leverage of using your top RP'ers in close games late.  To compare him to a middling SP because that SP pitches more innings is a poor argument.  Closers themselves are overrated but the ability to shut down games in the 7/8/9 is an amazing advantage for a team to have particularly in the playoffs when you kick your worst (or worst 2) pitchers to the curb because of the extra days off.

 

I would instantly trade Arcia or Meyer (plus others) for Chapman.  I would trade both of them for Chapman but realistically it's going to cost much more than that.

You're the first person to bring up WAR in this thread.

 

But in doing so, you kinda made my point for me. Chapman is a 3 WAR player. That's pretty good.

 

Over the past 3 1/2 years, Denard Span has averaged a little over 3.5 WAR per season. He was traded straight up for Alex Meyer, yet you just claimed it would take much more than Meyer and Arcia - two top 100 prospects - to pry Chapman away from the Reds.

 

Reliever values are inflated for what they bring the team. Yes, they pitch important innings but no matter how important the innings, they still only pitch 1 in 20 team innings. Unlike a position player, they are one-sided. They pitch defense for an inning. They have no offensive value. Under those restrictions, there is a limited influence one can have on the game. It doesn't matter how good you are as a pitcher, if you only pitch 1 in 20 innings and don't swing a bat, your overall influence on the game isn't going to compare to a good position player. That seems kinda like common sense to me, not advanced analytics.

 

The Nationals got three years of cost-controlled Denard Span for Alex Meyer. If the Twins can't get 1.5 years of non cost-controlled Aroldis Chapman for considerably less than 2011 Alex Meyer, the Reds should be laughed out of the room.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Also, it's mildly humorous that people keep using the word "middling starter" to refute my point, yet my original quote actually said this:

 

 

 

But for the price of Chapman, you can pick up a less-talented starter or position player who will have more of an impact because they either play every game or have overwhelming control of a game outcome every fifth day.

 

Somebody find the word "middling" in that post and get back to me.

[spinowner]

A general comment: why the urge to make a major trade at this stage? Things seem to be riding along fairly well for the major league team and the minors are populated with a number of highly-regarded prospects. My guess is we can fill most of our needs in-house for now.

Regarding this proposal: Terry Ryan has been able to cobble together decent bullpens the last few years without overpaying any Chapman types. Let him continue to find Fiens and Boyers instead of sacrificing prospects and money for a player that would have only very slightly more impact on the W-L record.

[drjim]

 

I'd add, the guys I'd be looking at trading are the Pat Deans and Taylor Rogers of the world.  ML ready back end talent.  We don't really have room for it.  They could probably bring back a decent reliever (not Chapman), but given what's behind them and what's in front, they won't see much time other than for occasional injuries. 

 

But those guys won't get anything, maybe a couple months of a barely league average corner OF or a Fien type.

[ericchri]

If the Reds would take Arcia and Meyer for Chapman, I'd make that trade.  I assume they might ask for more, being in the NL reduces Arcia's value.  I love the potential of Arcia and Meyer but I'm starting to think they'd be better off with another organization at this point.  The competition for their spots is getting pretty intense now, we can afford to move them along if we get a top-quality player in return.

[HitInAPinch]

 

If the Reds would take Arcia and Meyer for Chapman, I'd make that trade.  I assume they might ask for more, being in the NL reduces Arcia's value.  I love the potential of Arcia and Meyer but I'm starting to think they'd be better off with another organization at this point.  The competition for their spots is getting pretty intense now, we can afford to move them along if we get a top-quality player in return.

 

I'm curious:  what role would you have Chapman playing in the Twins bullpen?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If the Reds would take Arcia and Meyer for Chapman, I'd make that trade.  I assume they might ask for more, being in the NL reduces Arcia's value.

Then you don't trade Arcia to the NL.

 

You don't decrease the value of a player based on the other team's needs. You set a fair value for that player based on his production, age, and potential. If he isn't a good fit for the target team, you don't trade the guy.

 

That kind of thinking is what brought us the glorious Capps for Ramos trade in 2010.

[Thrylos]

So you want to get Chapman and waste him as the 8th inning guy?    Not sure that this part makes much sense... 

 

and even if he did, what is "not much" for an 8th inning guy?  Even Kepler alone would be too much.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So you want to get Champan and waste him as the 8th inning guy?    Not sure that this part makes much sense... 

Is a closer actually more valuable than an eighth inning guy, especially one who occasionally steps in during the seventh inning with men on base?

 

Without solid numbers backing up the claim, you'd have a hell of a time convincing me a closer is more valuable than the guy I just described.