Article: Clutch Joe Mauer Is Suddenly An RBI Machine

[Ted Schwerzler]

In the dead of the Pittsburgh night, late in the game (the top of the 13th inning to be exact), Joe Mauer did something that he had abandoned since August 17, 2014. With Antonio Bastardo on the mound, Mauer deposited a pitch over the right-center field wall at PNC Bank stadium. The Twins went on to win the game by a tally of 4-3. The home run was the shot that lifted Minnesota over the Pirates, but for Joe, it really doesn't matter.The home run off of Bastardo ended a 286 at-bat homerless drought for Mauer. Statistically speaking, the corner infield spots are traditionally held down by hulking home run hitters who drive the ball to all fields. Power has generally not been part of Mauer's game (just 37 HR since 2010), and still isn't, but Mauer has reinvented himself and is bringing new value to the role.

 

Often regarded as an opposite field hitter (outside of his relative reliability at pulling ground balls) Mauer has used all fields incredibly well in 2015. He is currently pulling 31.5% of his batted balls, while going up the middle with 35.4%, and hitting to the opposite field 33.1% of the time. A career 28.8% pull hitter, he has more evenly used all fields in 2015.

 

Although Mauer is more evenly distributing his hits, the number is falling and providing fewer total bases. That can likely be explained by his hard hit percentage. Owner of a career 33.6% hard hit percentage, Mauer is hitting just 23.6% of his batted balls hard this year. While his medium hits are at 59.1% (as opposed to a career 56.7%), his soft hits are also significantly up at 17.3% (career 9.7).

 

The most visible place these numbers have shown up is in the number of doubles. With eight total through the first quarter of the season, reaching his career-high 43 will require a few more balls driven to the gaps. However, Mauer does have two triples already this season, matching his 2014 total.

 

And yet, may be on pace for one of his best offensive seasons in recent memory. Home runs aside, he is driving the Twins offense right now, quite literally.

 

Leading the club in runs batted in with 24, Mauer is blistering past his 2014 pace (which ended with 55 RBI). Mauer's previous career high in runs batted in came during his 2009 AL MVP season, in which he drove in 96 runs. As it stands now, he's on pace to even that mark. Mauer driving in runs is a by-product of his success in high leverage situations this season, and his success is astounding.

 

A large portion of being a talented hitter is situational hitting. While Mauer's .284/.341/.381 slash line leaves room for improvement, it's tough to argue with what he's done in high leverage situations. In 2015 with runners on base, Mauer is hitting .382/.463/.485 and with runners in scoring position he's even better, .419/.500/.512. Taking it one step further, Mauer is 4-5 with a triple and eight RBI with the bases loaded in, equating to a 2.000 OPS. Driving runners around and putting the Twins on the board is no doubt among the most important offensive feats, no matter how that is accomplished.

 

Now that we've established why Mauer's lack of home runs doesn't really matter, it's probably a good time to suggest things could continue to get even better. Hoping that Mauer's overall slash line reverts back towards his career numbers is not an unreasonable hope.

 

Last season, Mauer didn't hit .300 in any single month until September. In 2015, Mauer's April line checked in at .318/.392/.412. He's struggled at the plate in May (outside of those high leverage situations), but it's pretty apparent that a healthy Mauer can still hit. As the summer wears on, it should be expected that Mauer will hit at a better than average clip.

 

This Twins team is in a good place right now, and with key additions coming as the season goes on, they are in position to keep getting better. The sixth best offense in baseball is continuing to push runs across at a strong clip, and Joe Mauer is a big reason for it, despite the lack of home runs.

 

Click here to view the article

[John Bonnes]

Good data. Really good data. But I come to the opposite conclusion going forward: Mauer isn't likely to keep up this RBI pace if he doesn't improve overall.

 

Two additions:
1) That stuff we talked about last month - his pulling the ball and aggresiveness on first pitches - seems to have gone away. That hard hit statistic you gave is real concerning.

 

2) He's hitting .243 with a 617 OPS in May. It has not been unusual that after an extended dip like that, we find out he's been playing through some ailment. This feels like that is happening again.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I'm not thrilled that we have 3+ more years of decline Mauer ahead of us, when the best thing that could happen to this team positionally is to have Vargas at first and Arcia at DH.

[2wins87]

"Often regarded as an opposite field hitter (outside of his relative reliability at pulling ground balls)"

 

This is actually a pretty big misconception.  Mauer pulls ground balls more often because everyone pulls ground balls more often.  He's actually well below average in GB pull rate, as he is in every trajectory type.  It's just that his flyball pull rate is crazy low, or at least it has been to this point in his career.

[jimmer]

For his career, Mauer bats .333/.457/.480 with RISP. Those numbers are better than his career slashline in every category.

 

Yes, this year his numbers with RISP are even better, but it's not like he's always been a slacker in RBI situations.  RBI is a stat this is dependent on opportunities.  Dependent on other players getting into scoring position. His clutch numbers are also very good across the board for his career, for those who talk about how clutch he has or hasn't been in his career.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mauerjo01&year=Career&t=b

 

 

Edited May 22, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't know what to think about Mauer right now. He seems like a player in flux, a guy who changes slightly on a weekly basis. It feels like he's trying to change his approach and take advantage of defenses shifting against him to middling effect. He's pulling the ball more but the ball is rarely hit with authority.

 

For example, one of his triples felt like a rope to right center... That landed about 30 feet beyond the infield dirt. If not for the shift, that's possibly a single, maybe a double at best. It was hit well but not authoritatively.

 

I hold out hope that Joe is still working on his swing, trying to make contact before he tries to advance and make authoritative contact... But I don't know if that hope is grounded in reality.

[HitInAPinch]

Again, it's been reported that Joe's left leg is health for the 1st time in over a year.  That's the leg he drives off of.  The Summer months are upon us and we should see an up-tick from all hitters. 

 

Beginning his 12th year, he still has a .318 lifetime BA.  Of course he's declining.    The biggest issue is: who's ready to take over 1st?

[Steve Lein]

 

For his career, Mauer bats .333/.457/.480 with RISP. Those numbers are better than his career slashline in every category.

 

Yes, this year his numbers with RISP are even better, but it's not like he's always been a slacker in RBI situations.  RBI is a stat this is dependent on opportunities.  Dependent on other players getting into scoring position. His clutch numbers are also very good across the board for his career, for those who talk about how clutch he has or hasn't been in his career.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mauerjo01&year=Career&t=b

 

It's a great batting line with RISP for sure. What gets missed however, is the fact that despite the great batting line, he's actually driven in a very modest percentage of those runners, at least for where he resides in the batting order (trust me on this, but I'm not going to show the data because people take it the wrong way, haha). It's largely because of his .124 ISO, which means he takes a lot of walks in those situations. I would absolutely 100% of the time take a drop in batting average and OBP in those situations if it means along the way he's being more aggressive to rack up more total hits, which can actually bring in runners.

 

That seems to be what he's doing this year, and that drop in BA and OBP isn't happening along with it. I like this version of Joe, as it works in the lineup they are using right now despite the absence of power.

[jimmer]

For his career, does he take a lot of walks in those situations because some pitchers/teams would rather not give him anything decent to hit in those situations (especially if it's in a critical situation). because he does so well in those situations (and because he's such a good hitter, period)?  

 

Notice 1/3 of the walks he has in those situations are intentional walks?  I wonder how many more are because they nibble around and say, 'well, if I can get him to swing at something bad and get weak contact or a strikeout, that's fine, but If not putting him on base isn't as bad as the alternative?'

 

If I was someone who thought the RBI stat was a good way to judge a hitter, I would be pretty happy with the amount Mauer has right now, but he's been below average at creating runs this season, so overall, his overall offensive performance has been bad, which hurts me to say.

Edited May 22, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For his career, does he take a lot of walks in those situations because some pitchers/teams would rather not give him anything decent to hit in those situations (especially if it's in a critical situation). because he does so well in those situations (and because he's such a good hitter, period)?  

 

Notice 1/3 of the walks he has in those situations are intentional walks?  I wonder how many more are because they nibble around and say, 'well, if I can get him to swing at something bad and get weak contact or a strikeout, that's fine, but If not putting him on base isn't as bad as the alternative?'

The numbers bear this out.

 

Percentage of strikes thrown to Joe Mauer in his career:

 

Bases Empty: 62%

Men on Base: 56%

RISP: 54%

 

Joe sees a lot fewer strikes when runners are on base.

[Steve Lein]

And I understand the balls/strikes stuff there too.

 

But Mauer is/has been one of the leagues best hitters, yes? Elite at times even, yes?

 

It seems logical to me that you could expect him to do more than most guys with the pitches that "nibble" if he wanted too. That's why I word it as being "more aggressive." After all, he is still seeing "strikes," yes?

[Seth Stohs]

I definitely think people have pitched around Mauer a lot in those situations. And no, I don't want him reaching for pitches in those situations. That's what the pitchers and defense wants him to do.

[USAFChief]

Other good hitters get "pitched around" in scoring situations too, yet they find ways to do damage and drive in runs.

 

I believe his SLG/ISO is part of the explaination, a too passive approach another part.

[Steve Lein]

 

Other good hitters get "pitched around" in scoring situations too, yet they find ways to do damage and drive in runs.

I believe his SLG/ISO is part of the explaination, a too passive approach another part.

 

Yup. That's exactly my point. Be more "aggressive," which I think he's doing.

[Boom Boom]

For his career, Mauer bats .333/.457/.480 with RISP. Those numbers are better than his career slashline in every category.

 

Yes, this year his numbers with RISP are even better, but it's not like he's always been a slacker in RBI situations. RBI is a stat this is dependent on opportunities. Dependent on other players getting into scoring position. His clutch numbers are also very good across the board for his career, for those who talk about how clutch he has or hasn't been in his career.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mauerjo01&year=Career&t=b

Just about every hitter has better stats with RISP than otherwise, for multiple reasons.

 

Pitchers in the stretch and/or tired, defenses unable to shift... as well as RISP situations more commonly happening with at least one out, so runners are more apt to go early.

[jimmer]

 

Just about every hitter has better stats with RISP than otherwise, for multiple reasons.

 

Do you have supporting evidence to support that theory?

 

Please read this

 

http://stats.seandolinar.com/risp/

 

in the wrap-up the writer says: ' I don’t exactly have an explanation, but it appears that there are more MLBers that bat worse with RISP than overall. My one thought is that pitchers are pitching more cautiously or that fresh relief pitchers are more likely to come into the game when there’s a runner in scoring position.'

 

In any event, how many have players have numbers that are that good over the course of a career that long. Even if the theory is correct, which I've never heard until now, they'd still need to be a better line than Mauer's numbers with RISP, on average, to show he hasn't been very good in those situations.

Edited May 22, 2015 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

I don't buy the conclusion of the article at all. Any article that says power does not matter at all, well, I am not buying that.

 

He's just not good compared to other 1B right now. Can that change? Can he get back to elite hitter status? I don't believe it, but I would give him the year to prove me wrong. If he's not MUCH better at the end of the year, I approach him about taking early retirement. Because you are not SUPER likely to win with a 1B that doesn't hit well, and they aren't benching him while he is on the roster.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Do you have supporting evidence to support that theory?

 

And how many have players have numbers that are that good over the course of a career that long. Even if the theory is correct, which I've never heard until now, they'd still need to be a better line than Mauer's numbers with RISP, on average, to show he hasn't been very good in those situations.

Well, both leagues have better numbers with RISP (by a healthy margin) so one would assume that most players also have better numbers with RISP.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2015

[jimmer]

 

Well, both leagues have better numbers with RISP (by a healthy margin) so one would assume that most players also have better numbers with RISP.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2015

Please read this

http://stats.seandolinar.com/risp/

in the wrap-up the writer says: ' I don’t exactly have an explanation, but it appears that there are more MLBers that bat worse with RISP than overall. My one thought is that pitchers are pitching more cautiously or that fresh relief pitchers are more likely to come into the game when there’s a runner in scoring position.'

[jimmer]

 

Well, both leagues have better numbers with RISP (by a healthy margin) so one would assume that most players also have better numbers with RISP.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2015

The year is early, some players do so much better that it skews the averages

 

But to say almost every batter does better with RISP for a few months and then can maintain that kind of much better numbers over a long career is a different thing, IMO.

 

 

Edited May 22, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Please read this

http://stats.seandolinar.com/risp/

in the wrap-up the writer says: ' I don’t exactly have an explanation, but it appears that there are more MLBers that bat worse with RISP than overall. My one thought is that pitchers are pitching more cautiously or that fresh relief pitchers are more likely to come into the game when there’s a runner in scoring position.'

That's dealing with batting average. I'm looking at OPS for obvious reasons.

 

I spot-checked ten random years going back to the mid-70s and every year, the AL had a higher OPS with RISP than it did with the bases empty. Interestingly, the gap was small in the 3-4 years I checked from 1975-1990 and has expanded quite a bit since that time, growing up to a .040 OPS difference in a few recent seasons.

[jimmer]

And even so, how many do better than Joe has done over the course of a career so long?  Because that's truly the main point in regards to this thread when talking about how he's all of a sudden become and RBI guy this year or clutch this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And even so, how many do better than Joe has done over the course of a career so long?  Because that's truly the main point in regards to this thread when talking about how he's all of a sudden become and RBI guy this year or clutch this year.

I'm not trying to diminish Joe's ability with RISP at all, just pointing out that it has to be weighed against league averages to determine the true difference.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It should be added that most of the difference in the splits between RISP and bases empty comes from increased OBP minus BA (in other words, walks).

 

But not all of it. Small gains were often seen in BA and SLG in the years I spot-checked. My thinking is that bad pitchers put more men on base. Bad pitchers give up higher OPS to opposing hitters. Add in the increased walk rate (for obvious reasons) and you have the difference between bases empty and RISP splits.

 

Clayton Kershaw doesn't allow as many runners into RISP as Ricky Nolasco does so most of Clayton's lights-out innings come with the bases empty. The inverse is true of Nolasco.

[jimmer]

 

That's dealing with batting average. I'm looking at OPS for obvious reasons.

 

I spot-checked ten random years going back to the mid-70s and every year, the AL had a higher OPS with RISP than it did with the bases empty. Interestingly, the gap was small in the 3-4 years I checked from 1975-1990 and has expanded quite a bit since that time, growing up to a .040 OPS difference in a few recent seasons.

all I'm saying is this, and I probably wasn't clear, just because a league does a bit better as whole in RISP doesn't mean 'almost every batter does better with RISP'.  Some do way better, which skews the numbers, some do slightly worse or way worse, etc.  

 

I think what's mostly been determined is that over the course of a long career, hitters will bat close to their career overall numbers norms, whether it's with RISP or not.  So the great hitters will hit great with RISP and the bad hitters won't.

[jimmer]

Brock, I get what you're saying and I'm just enjoying the conversation.  BTW, for his career, Mauer's OPS is 20% better than his normal OPS with a .362 BABIP.

Edited May 22, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock, I get what you're saying and I'm just enjoying the conversation.  BTW, for his career, Mauer's OPS is 20% better than his normal OPS with a .362 BABIP.

Yep. Mauer is very good with RISP, I don't understand why people rag on him so much. Here are the differences with RISP:

 

Joe Mauer:

BA: +.028

OBP: +.090

SLG: +.029

 

Miguel Cabrera (I just picked a random good player):

BA: +.025

OBP: +.048

SLG: +.011

 

Yeah, so Joe Mauer. Despite "putting the bat on his shoulder and going after the walk", he still has a higher slugging increase than Miguel Cabrera with RISP.

 

[Dantes929]

 

And I understand the balls/strikes stuff there too.

 

But Mauer is/has been one of the leagues best hitters, yes? Elite at times even, yes?

 

It seems logical to me that you could expect him to do more than most guys with the pitches that "nibble" if he wanted too. That's why I word it as being "more aggressive." After all, he is still seeing "strikes," yes?

 

Other good hitters get "pitched around" in scoring situations too, yet they find ways to do damage and drive in runs.

I believe his SLG/ISO is part of the explaination, a too passive approach another part.

I think this overlooks the value of a walk in scoring situations.     With the bad teams Mauers value diminishes because of the efficiency of those around him.   When it was Morneau, Thome and Cuddyer behind him then walks mean more because they simply add base runners for good hitters which produce runs even though they don't show up very positively in the slugging or RBI stats.   

[curt1965]

I've always been a Mauer supporter, and have oftentimes wondered why anyone would pitch to him with the game on the line. I have been concerned, however, with the "line drive" statistic. The home run he hit on Wednesday was the hardest hit ball I remember him hitting in over a month! When he's on, he'll have 4 AB's with 4 rockets. I realize no one can do that all the time, but it seems like those rockets have been missing for several weeks. Anyone agree?

[jimmer]

 

I think this overlooks the value of a walk in scoring situations.     With the bad teams Mauers value diminishes because of the efficiency of those around him.   When it was Morneau, Thome and Cuddyer behind him then walks mean more because they simply add base runners for good hitters which produce runs even though they don't show up very positively in the slugging or RBI stats.   

And this is why I like wRC+ more than traditional stats.  Gives us a better picture of how many runs the player created with his offensive contributions, not just HR and RBI.  

 

And I will go back to this scenario, which comes up quite a bit.  Guy gets a walk, the next guy gets a single to RF and the guy goes from 1st to 3rd.  The next guy creates an out by hitting the ball just deep enough to score the guy on 3B.  The guy on first gets a run scored, the guy who flew out gets an RBI, and the guy who put the runner at 3B where he would be able to score on a SAC fly gets no credit, at all, in traditional stat line in regards to that guy scoring, yet he was vital to the guy scoring.

Edited May 22, 2015 by jimmer