Game Thread: Twins @ Pirates, 5/20/15 @ 6:05 PM CDT

[BK432]

Lineups:

 

Twins

Danny Santana – SS
Brian Dozier – 2B
Joe Mauer – 1B
Trevor Plouffe – 3B
Torii Hunter – RF
Kurt Suzuki – C
Aaron Hicks – CF
Shane Robinson – LF
Mike Pelfrey - P

 

Pirates

Josh Harrison – RF
Neil Walker – 2B
Andrew McCutchen – CF
Starling Marte – LF
Jung Ho Kang – SS
Pedro Alvarez – 1B
Francisco Cervelli – C
Jordy Mercer – SS
Jeff Locke – P

 

--------

 

Afternoon Twins fans,

 

I can safely say that it's not likely many game threads have been written whilst overlooking the Atlantic Ocean. Yet, I am fortunate to say that I am doing just that here in Virginia Beach. A friend is getting married on Saturday in Norfolk, so I flew out here early with the wife and the 2-year-old to do some beaching. Life feels pretty damn good right now.

 

Has to feel pretty good for Paul Molitor and Twins too. Somehow, some way, they are 22-17 and just a 1/2 game back of Detroit for 2nd in the AL Central. There's a great thread posted here on TD about if people are ready to change their season record predictions. I have not posted on the thread, because I fear looking silly later in the year. I still think 75 wins is right, and there's plenty of season left for the Twins to drop to 75-87 by season's end. But (obviously) the longer they play well and win games, the more we'll all have to reevaluate this team.

 

3 Things To Look For Tonight at PNC:

 

1. Fun Baseball From Pittsburgh.

 

Look, I am biased. I absolutely love the Pirates and will watch them probably 30-35 times on MLB.tv this year. But seriously, enjoy this team. Andrew McCutchen is the answer to "What player besides Mike Trout would you draft first in an imaginary draft of MLB players?" And no, I don't care that he's hitting .225 this year so far. Much like the Twins record, it's very likely a mirage that will change over time. He and Starling Marte form a highly impactful LF-CF combo, and despite this play the other night from Gregory Polanco, he completes a very fun OF to watch.

 

It's only a matter of time as well before Clint Hurdle benches the enigmatic (and ineffective) Jordy Mercer for the young Korean Jung Ho Kang, who looks like he could be a star. Pair him with Josh Harrison, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez, and all in all, this is a team that I still believe will be back in the postseason for the 3rd consecutive season.

 

2. Mike Pelfrey vs. Jeff Locke

 

Sometimes I like to get my brother (on Twitter @mattkummer) going a bit. Hey, it's what siblings do. When Ervin Santana's suspension was announced, I told him that there was very little difference between Pelfrey and Santana (if Pelf was truly healthy) so it really wasn't a big deal. Do I really believe that? Sort of. There is a difference; clearly Santana has had the better career and has stayed quite effective for long stretches. But he benefited from great defenses in Anaheim and KC and had xFIPs between 4.3 and 4.5. When healthy, Pelfrey has been a 2-3 WAR player with xFIPs near the same range. As good as Santana? Not quite. But at best, over a half season, it's half a win. So I claim victory.

 

I digress - Pelfrey is off to a pretty good start in terms of results. But if you wanna talk FIPs, we might have seen just the first chomp from the regression monster in his last start. His opponents' BABIP is a way-too-low .275. If his K rate doesn't drastically improve (currently just under 4 per 9 IP) he'll be a candidate for replacement by Santana or one of our youngsters.

 

Jeff Locke, on the other hand, has been a bit better than his ERA shows. He gives up a ton of HRs (his 2015 rate of 13.2% HR/FB is only slightly above his career mark of 12.1%) so if Joe Mauer wants to get off the snide and end his HR drought, tonight may be a good night.

 

There will likely be plenty of runs in this game tonight thanks to a couple pretty good offenses and a couple of end-of-the-rotation starters.

 

3. Outfield Defense

 

With another lefty facing the Twins tonight in Locke, we may see Shane Robinson again in LF. Or maybe Molitor gives Rosario a shot against the southpaw. No matter. With Hicks manning center and either Robinson or Rosario in LF, the Twins can far more easily mask the less-than-stellar defense Torii Hunter provides in RF. In fact, I tweeted on Saturday that if Hicks and Rosario had both not made pretty nice, rangy catches in the outfield that the Twins may have fallen short against the Rays instead of coming out on top. The Twins rank 19th out of 30 in OF defense (ranked by UZR/150) so far this season (they were 28th last year and 26th in 2013), and this should only improve with two legitimate MLB-level defenders out there. Far too often overlooked, outfield defense can be the difference between a playoff team and a .500 team.

 

Or, probably more pertinent for Twins fans, maybe the difference between a .500 team and a 90-loss team.

 

Go Twins, enjoy the game!

 

Ben Kummer

Twitter: @BK432

[Blake]

checking, missed yesterday.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You are in Michael Cuddyer's part of the world, I believe. Possibly where he grew up. Pay special attention to any ballfields you might drive past

[USAFChief]

Thanks BK! Nicely done.

[Matt Kummer]

Nice work, brother. Yes, you got me riled up again...

 

1. I have a feeling (maybe blind hope) that I won't want to throw something at the TV when I watch Santana pitch this summer. When I watch Pelfrey (like with Nolasco), I just feel that disaster is lurking behind every pitch. I continue to feel that Pelf could be very effective in a bullpen role. He just seems to run into problems as he goes through a lineup multiple times.

 

2. I hear you on the Pirates. But, Cutch hasn't looked right all year. You can tell the knee still isn't 100%. I'd like him to get going (after tonight, of course), because I'm one of those guys who shelled out a lot of fake $ for my fantasy team. And Marte's play on Mauer's 30 hop 3 RBI single was awful.

 

Have fun in Virginia Beach!

[Halsey Hall]

Thanks, BK.  I too like the Pirates and this series is fun to watch.  They've got a bunch of free swingers so if Pelfrey has his pitches moving tonight he may get more K's. 

[JB_Iowa]

Made me look.

 

It is currently 77 in Virginia Beach according to Weather Underground.

 

It is 50 degrees in my part of Iowa.

 

I'm very jealous!!!!

 

Nice, clean opening -- I enjoyed it very much.

[JB_Iowa]

 

[Mike Sixel]

Nice writeup. Though I believe Harper is the answer to your question........

[ashbury]

Nice writeup. Though I believe Harper is the answer to your question........

Stanton would need to get at least a courtesy mention in any such discussion as well, IMO.

[Craig Arko]

I found Vargas; can you?

[ashbury]

At almost the same moment, another TD poster in the "Where's Vargas" thread invoked Waldo. Os'Waldo.

[Craig Arko]

We'll never find him. He's run off.

[ashbury]

Yes, Where In The World could he be?

 

_{^{/ looks like he's on the outskirts of Sandiego.}}

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Where In The World could he be?

 

_{^{/ ...}}

Yes.

 

(In the world, that is. Or on it, more likely.)

[Willihammer]

 

We'll never find him. He's run off.

Sauce

[sampleSizeOfOne]

 

Sauce

I don't remember the result, but i remember a discussion (or argument) as to whether "sauce" or "spice" was the better term...

[ashbury]

In a similar vein:

http://vamers.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Vamers-Artistry-Carmen-Sandiego-and-Wheres-Wally-A-Perfectly-Unfindable-Match-Where-have-you-been-all-my-life.jpg

[diehardtwinsfan]

Welcome Twinsfans from sunny Vicksburg, MS. Nice write up BK. Looking forward to going home tomorrow. Looking forward to the second win the series tonight.

[Circus Boy]

Ladies and gentlemen, please rise for the playing of our National Anthem... "Ohhhh, say can you see..."

[Richie the Rally Goat]

We'll never find him. He's run off.

She sneaks around the world from Kiev to Carolina,

She's a sticky-fingered filcher from Berlin down to Belize,

She'll take you for a ride on a slow boat to China,

Tell me where in the world is Carmen Sandiego?

[ashbury]

We are underway. This has been your Circus Boy Update.

[ashbury]

Nice cutoff of the line drive down the line, by Pirates RF Josh Harrison. Santana nearly thrown out going into second, on a ball that looked like a standup double.

[Craig Arko]

Go go, go Danny go. Danny B. Goode.

[Circus Boy]

 

We are underway. This has been your Circus Boy Update.

 

Hey, I sang the National Anthem. Can't get underway until that's underway.

[ashbury]

Hey, I sang the National Anthem. Can't get underway until that's underway.

And nicely done, too. Earns the Roseanne Seal Of Approval.

 

http://images.sodahead.com/profiles/0/0/3/4/2/7/5/2/3/geee-88719425005.jpeg

[Winston Smith]

So where has Bert been?

[stringer bell]

Nice game setter!  This is the tightest spread of hitters I can remember.  The lowest hitter in batting average is .248, the top guy is at .293.

[Craig Arko]

Mr. Hunter.

[ashbury]

Pirates pitcher Locke getting a little squeezed there. Tough when the bases are already loaded.