Zulgad: Arcia's Transition to Left Field

[Seth Stohs]

1500ESPN's Judd Zulgad wrote today about Oswaldo Arcia's move over to left field this year. Mackey and Judd had Terry Ryan on their show today and asked him about it. They also asked Paul Molitor about it.

 

A lot of "credit" for Arcia's struggles in right field last year is being given to the overhang in right field, and that creating a lack of confidence. 

 

They know he'll never be a gold glove left fielder, but they think he can be pretty OK.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is the wall/overhang really that big of a deal? I am recalling some of the plays I saw him miss / "make" in RF and the overhang barely enters into it.

[gunnarthor]

Is the wall/overhang really that big of a deal? I am recalling some of the plays I saw him miss / "make" in RF and the overhang barely enters into it.

I'm not sure if it's a big deal but i don't know enough to know.  I do know that the ball bounces three different ways, depending on what it hits and I think that could bother a defender.  How much, I have no idea.

[markos]

I'm not sure if it's a big deal but i don't know enough to know.  I do know that the ball bounces three different ways, depending on what it hits and I think that could bother a defender.  How much, I have no idea.

I have always thought that Arcia's main struggles had to do with actually catching the ball (a lack of range and a shaky glove) rather than playing the ball off the wall. Sure, he might misplay some of those hits, and I can definitely believe that Arcia may struggle with that specific play. However, just how important is that play? I believe that there were way more balls in the gap, down the line, and over his head that Arcia wasn't able to catch (or cut off) than there were balls hit off the wall that he misplayed. And the difference between giving up a triple instead of a double (on a misplay off the wall) seems pretty minor compared to giving up a hit instead of getting the out.

 

Long story short, I think it is a real issue, but that it impacts so few plays to be meaningful relative to all the other plays he struggles with. Therefore, I don't think he will be any better in left field as he is in right.

[Kwak]

What on earth could Ryan and Molitor say?--"We know he can't play the OF but we have no choice but Arcia.  Hopefully, he will hit enough that we can (eventually) trade him for people we can truly use."  C'mom! 

[Jham]

Arcia is still super young, athletic for his size, and by most accounts, a pretty hard working kid.  He's one of the few guys on the team with some competitive fire.  I'm willing to live with him misplaying the occasional ball while playing hard, crushing the ball, and firing up the team.  The MLB  game is played at hyper speed.  He wouldn't be the first player who needed time to catch up.  I think he has enough athletic ability to be average or above average in the corners, especially right.  Give him some time.

[jimmer]

And do we think Arcia will eventually be moved back to RF and, if so, why mess up his development in RF by moving him to LF?

[stringer bell]

And do we think Arcia will eventually be moved back to RF and, if so, why mess up his development in RF by moving him to LF?

The Twins response has been that he might be better in left, which I don't believe.  It is about accommodating Mr. Hunter IMHO. 

[brvama]

I am not going to defend this reason, but I will offer that it is entirely plausible that it is affecting him. To play adequate or better requires at least some skill level, positioning, and good decision-making. If, and this is a big 'if', Arcia is concerned with the overhang, it could be possible that this interferes with sound decision-making, which is critical for him to overcome his skill weaknesses.

[JB_Iowa]

I doubt that they would move him again. We will still have Buxton, Hicks, Rosario plus others coming up. Seems more likely that they will man center and right.

 

I think Arcia will probably be under the Delmon rule -- confine him to left where he can do the least harm.

[USAFChief]

And do we think Arcia will eventually be moved back to RF and, if so, why mess up his development in RF by moving him to LF?

1. Playing RF and playing LF aren't much, if any different, IMO. One job is a mirror image of the other, except for longer throws to third base.

 

2. In another thread, you said RFers are normally better than LFers. If that's the case, and you believe Arcia can never be a good outfielder, wouldn't you want him in left, if he's going to be on the field?

[JB_Iowa]

Even going back to Cuddy, I think that there was some acknowledgment that RF is more difficult at Target than LF. More spacious plus the overhang. I remember Cuddyer talking about the overhang.

[jimmer]

The Twins response has been that he might be better in left, which I don't believe.  It is about accommodating Mr. Hunter IMHO. 

Well, if they move Arcia back to RF whenever the time comes when Hunter is no longer playing, we'll know that's why for sure.  And if it is, they've delayed Arcia's development time which is what last year and the next couple years should be about.  If Arcia is going to be our RF for years to come, and if Hunter was told this, then wouldn't we want the new leader of the team to say to the team something like, 'thanks for offering to move him to LF so I could stay where I'm comfortable but, for the good of Arcia's development , I will move to LF'?

[Shane Wahl]

I am predicting a huge year offensively from Arcia. A modest improvement of his defense will be sufficient. I think we are not going to care so much about it because the dude is about to go off.

[jimmer]

1. Playing RF and playing LF aren't much, if any different, IMO. One job is a mirror image of the other, except for longer throws to third base.

 

2. In another thread, you said RFers are normally better than LFers. If that's the case, and you believe Arcia can never be a good outfielder, wouldn't you want him in left, if he's going to be on the field?

1. The flights of the ball are, for a good deal of batted balls, completely different.  Most batters are right handed so when they hit to LF the fielder isn't dealing with a ball slicing away as happens a right handed batter hits it to RF. It's a truer flight in LF when a righty hits it there. So, there are more difficult plays normally in RF.

 

2.  I never said I want Arcia to play RF.  I said if the team plans to play him there in the future, he should stay there, regardless of whether or not Hunter is here so he can develop there.

[USAFChief]

1. The flights of the ball are, for a good deal of batted balls, completely different. Most batters are right handed so when they hit to LF the fielder isn't dealing with a ball slicing away as happens a right handed batter hits it to RF. It's a truer flight in LF when a righty hits it there. So, there are more difficult plays normally in RF.

 

2. I never said I want Arcia to play RF. I said if the team plans to play him there in the future, he should stay there, regardless of whether or not Hunter is here so he can develop there.

1. The flights of the balls are, completely the same...they are just mirror images. There are sliced balls to left field from LH hitters, and hooked balls from RH hitters. In RF, same balls, just from opposite handed hitters... sliced balls from RH hitters, hooked balls from LH hitters.

 

The number of PAs by RH hitters in the AL last year was higher than by LH hitters, but not by a lot: 49467 to 42723. The number of balls put in play to RF and lF were very similar: 15268 to LF, 14762 to RF (hat tip to baseballref).

 

If you look at putouts by RFers and LFers each year, they are very similar...I'm not going to do that research again, but we had this discussion a few years ago on BYTO and I am confident I remember that correctly.

 

All of which means RFers and LFers are going to see a similar number of chances.

 

There are quirky ballpark differences in RF and LF, but other than that, there just isn't much difference between playing one or the other. Better arm usually plays right. Personal preference and/or familiarity maybe.

 

2. I didn't say you wanted Arcia in right. I said you've called him a bad OFer unlikely to improve. So if, as you've stated, RF is more difficult, I don't understand why you are against moving him to left.

[TheLeviathan]

Overhang clearly got him.

 

Cmon people, he's got a ton of potential as a hitter and I love the guy's attitude.  But he's just a dude who is not gifted at catching baseballs, he's always going to be bad to really bad out there.  He should be a DH but this team can't afford that, so let's hope he doesn't hurt us too much out there.

[jimmer]

1. The flights of the balls are, completely the same...they are just mirror images. There are sliced balls to left field from LH hitters, and hooked balls from RH hitters. In RF, same balls, just from opposite handed hitters... sliced balls from RH hitters, hooked balls from LH hitters.

 

The number of PAs by RH hitters in the AL last year was higher than by LH hitters, but not by a lot: 49467 to 42723. The number of balls put in play to RF and lF were very similar: 15268 to LF, 14762 to RF (hat tip to baseballref).

 

If you look at putouts by RFers and LFers each year, they are very similar...I'm not going to do that research again, but we had this discussion a few years ago on BYTO and I am confident I remember that correctly.

 

There are quirky ballpark differences in RF and LF, but other than that, there just isn't much difference between playing one or the other. Personal preference and/or familiarity maybe.

 

2. I didn't say you wanted Arcia in right. I said you've called him a bad OFer unlikely to improve. So if, as you've stated, RF is more difficult, I don't understand why you are against moving him to left.

7,000 plays is a good chunk, and yes both have balls sliced to their spot, but like I said, more right handers than left handed hitters so RF get more balls that are slicing than LF get. The numbers of overall balls hit to LF and RF doesn't mean anything in this argument because it's about the flight of the ball not the amount of balls hit.  Obviously RH hitters will hit balls to all fields as will LH batter, but how many were slicing to LF and how many were slicing to RF, because we're concerned about the difficult plays, not cans of corn.

 

When did I say Arcia, a very young player, was likely to not improve defensively?  If I gave that impression, if I certainly didn't mean to cause I certainly don't believe that.  If I believed that I wouldn't be talking about his defensive development.  Meaning I wouldn't be saying if he's going to go back to RF after Hunter is done we should keep him in RF to develop, would I? I'd say something like who cares if he's moved all over he's never gonna get better anyway.

[gunnarthor]

I am predicting a huge year offensively from Arcia. A modest improvement of his defense will be sufficient. I think we are not going to care so much about it because the dude is about to go off.

I tend to agree with this.  It's not like there are that many good defensive OFers out there, anyway. If he's hitting, we'll be fine.

[USAFChief]

2013: 45646 PAs by RH hitters, 44111 by LH hitters.

 

Now we're down to a difference of less than 1300, in over 2400 games. One more RH hitter every other game.

 

Combing 2013 and 2014, 8000 PAs in 4800 games. Less than 1 per game.

 

There are almost as many LH hitters as RH, like I said.

[jimmer]

2013: 45646 PAs by RH hitters, 44111 by LH hitters.

 

 

Interesting.  

 

There were 184,873 PA in 2013.  You have accounted for about half.  

 

There were 37,072 PA of RH hitter versus LH pitchers, and 66,069 PA of RH versus RH. 103,141 PA by RH hitters.

 

There were 16,134 PA of LH hitter versus LH pitchers and 65,598 PA of LH hitter versus RH pitcher. 81,732 PA by LH hitters.

 

Notice that the numbers for LH batter and the numbers for RH batters add up to the exact PAs that occurred in 2013.

 

That's over 21,000 more PAs for RH hitters in 2013.

 

Fangraphs filter is pretty easy to use.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2013&month=57&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[USAFChief]

I counted AL, I'm guessing you have all of MLB.

[kab21]

that's basically saying that there are 5 RHB's and 4 LHB's in the average lineup.  That doesn't exactly scream the huge difference that you are claiming.

 

At the end of the day if Arcia isn't versatile enough to handle LF and RF because of a difference like this then he has no business being in the outfield.

[stringer bell]

First of all, because of the dimensions at TF, left field is more spacious IIRC, but right field is trickier due to the high wall, with an overhang and limestone.

 

It seemed to me that Arcia was more comfortable in right last year than he was in left in 2013. Further, I always saw Arcia as a right fielder. He's got a good arm, but limited range. However, he has played left field before and actually saw much more time in left than right with the Twins in 2013.

 

I see the move of Arcia to left as short term and in my opinion it made the Hunter acquisition much more problematic. Time will tell, I guess, but to me this just delays Arcia's progress in dealing with the quirks of Target Field's right field.

[Thrylos]

Arcia will be a better Left Fielder than the last Twins' Left Fielder.   And I cannot remember much noise about Willingham being a statue out there.

 

And unless a fielder is ambidextrous, playing fly balls at LF is different than playing RF, and the cut off men are different.  Ground differences, fence distances etc aside.  Theoretically LF is regarded as an easier position to play.

 

I would venture to say that the weakest fielding link at the Twins' outfield in 2015 will be one Mr Hunter...

 

[tobi0040]

I predict LF struggles this year because of a rare beetle in the LF grass.

[Parker Hageman]

Arcia will be a better Left Fielder than the last Twins' Left Fielder. And I cannot remember much noise about Willingham being a statue out there.

 

 

There's no where to go but up... and yes, there was noise (at least from my end) about Willingham's defensive abilities: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/left-field-in-need-of-upgrade-r3143

 

I feel like Ryan gave the political response to that question. Did the wall effect his confidence? Maybe. I think Molitor's review of Arcia's performance at the Winter Meetings carry more weight:

 

I watched how Scottie worked with him last year in the outfield, and they’ll go out there in right field and Scottie will hit balls in corner and say this ball is a double. Your objective is not to play it into a triple. During the game someone will hit it down the line and he’ll try to slide and stop the ball before it gets into the corner and it turns a double into a triple.

[Steve Lein]

I think Arcia will probably be under the Delmon rule -- confine him to left where he can do the least harm.

 

I tend to agree with this too.

 

Frankly, I think he has issues tracking balls to his right (non-glove hand), which will pretty much be eliminated in left field.

[Dantes929]

We have had a lot of good centerfielders in the past in Hunter, Gomez, Span, and Revere.  Even Hicks and Santana weren't too bad because of their speed and arm.    Left field has been a problem for a long time.  I think Lew Ford was pretty good out there and maybe Shannon Stewart was decent.   Right field wasn't really a problem with Cuddyer but not like a big asset out there either.   His arm was very good and he played the walls well but speed was just ok.  As far as I am concerned the last two good right fielders were Span and J. Jones.    Balls the were hit to the right field corner with Span I assumed they would be caught or cut off.  With Arcia I assume they will be triples so there is something to the reason for moving him.   If he misplays in left they are more likely to be doubles.  .  

I thought it interesting that balls hit to the corners are about equal because I always assumed more were hit to left.    However, with more room in left at Target I would still want the fastest guy out there.   Isn't that Tori over Arcia?   Left is where I assumed Rosario would end up.    I always thought D Young should have been in right but he would probably have been a mess anywhere.   

[Parker Hageman]

Frankly, I think he has issues tracking balls to his right (non-glove hand), which will pretty much be eliminated in left field.

 

 

You mean like this? https://vine.co/v/h7w1Iu2iDgt