Ten worst contracts

[mikelink45]

Mauer is put in the wrong position in the batting order (because we lacked the talent over the last few years to put together a meaningful set of nine batters) and if I remember he was still a catcher when he signed which changes the equation.  Since it is not my money I really do not care about amounts - Pohlad net worth (google) is $3.6 billion.  The investment interest along on that amount covers the payroll so I prefer to look at contracts in another light.  Mauer was young enough when he signed that he had the potential to fulfill his value, unlike Cabrera, Pujols, Hamilton and others who signed long term contracts at the age Mauer is now.  

What I do not like are contracts like Nolasco and Pelfrey that get the Twins thinking mediocre fillers rather than developing young talent and getting them on the field.  Even Hunter's contract comes to play in the bad category.  True we are getting a DH, 1B log jam and Mauer might not have a lot of value at the end if his body is not able to hold up, but then it is on the Twins to eat the money and put him on the bench.

[Major League Ready]

The thing about Mauer's contract is that I don't think it has ever stopped the Twins from going out and signing anybody. There have been plenty of valid reasons not to go out and try and sign the big money guys, and the general lack of quality players on the big league team the last 4 years has had much more of a effect than $23 million dollars invested in Mauer each year. Even with the free agent spending bonanza (relative to previous years) the last couple years, the Twins payroll is still below $100 million. The players who will make the Twins a contender will be extremely cheap for the next 4 to 6 years at which point Mauer's contract will be over.

 

 

The thing about Mauer's contract is that I don't think it has ever stopped the Twins from going out and signing anybody. There have been plenty of valid reasons not to go out and try and sign the big money guys, and the general lack of quality players on the big league team the last 4 years has had much more of a effect than $23 million dollars invested in Mauer each year. Even with the free agent spending bonanza (relative to previous years) the last couple years, the Twins payroll is still below $100 million. The players who will make the Twins a contender will be extremely cheap for the next 4 to 6 years at which point Mauer's contract will be over.

The fact that we will have cheap talent the next few years is exactly why Mauer's contract is detrimental.  Those funds could be used for a front of the rotation SP and that type of FA is going to be much more likely to come to Minnesota when Buxton, Sano and others are everyday players not to mention a future bullpen that looks to be awesome.  I would love to have the aggregate salaries of Mauer, Nolasco and Santana instead of the players in 2017 and 2018.  There are several guys in the system that will be better than Mauer at first base by then and I would not count on Sanata/Nolasco being impact SPs, especially after a couple more seasons.  Take that money and invest in a true ace and with the $20M that is left over go fill whatever position is a hole.

 

BY 2017 I like the odds of having 4 very strong SPs among Gibson / Berrios / Meyer / May / Stewart / Milone / Rogers / Duffey and perhaps the pick from this summer.  However, I am not sure any of these guys is a true ace so the ability to go get one when our time finally arrives would be big and it will be most affordable while we have a young core.

[Monkeypaws]

At the least, the Twins current big contracts will expire before the future studs will demand the big bucks.

[Rosterman]

The troubles of signing a superstar to a contract, or a franchise player to a contract.

 

You must ask: how better could this money be used AND wouldn't it be nice if it was someone else's problem and not ours.

 

It is a juggling act. Do you settle NOW for the qualifying offer and a draft pick, or do you move the guy for a package of players that may/may not pan out.

 

How does that player change the value of the guys behind him in the minors. If the thought ha crossed that Mauer was to become a first baseman, would the Twins have traded ramos? For example.Mauer playing a few years in Minnesota, does he make guys like Vargas or Kepler expendable. Would we be better trading Joe and hoping one of the minor league "top" prospects will fill his place sooner rather than down-the-line.

 

Does the guy put butts in the seats, which means increased concessions and merchandise sales.

 

You can argue that Pujols was an okay signing for the Angels, like A-Rod for the Yankees and such. Players that someone will pay to see, at least for awhile. Was Hamilton a good signing for the Angels, though. And the Cardinals found out Pujols was not a franchise need for their team. But maybe Hamilton was for the Rangers. 

 

We all argue the need to spend rather than hoard money and to grab the Best Player possible or keep your best players. What if Hunter never left. What if we had ponied up the funds for Santana instead of forcing what has become a bad trade. Were we served by Cuddyer and Morneau and Nathan walking. 

 

It shows what is hard about baseball. Spending money, making deals, thinking (as St. Peter says) about the "brand". 

 

Would Minnesota be happier if Joe had become a Red Sox years ago and we had his salary to play with.

 

The pain with baseball is that teams make a killing on players if they perform in their early years. They have to make some tough decisions where many players are vastly overpaid in arbitration. They have to think long-term for one of the stars and hope they get partial return and wins and championships from the big buck seasons with the hope of weathering or making it another team's troubles when that contract winds down.

 

The Phillies are facing that with Ryan Howard. The Giants faced it for many years with Barry Zito and managed to wring something out of him in the end. Not much, but something.

 

It is the gamble of the business. the money is there to spend. There are only so many roster spots, so many organization spots. You HAVE to spend of face the wrath. You have to stay competitive. You feel good when other teams blow their cash wad and you don't.

[ashbury]

Just to put some additional information in this thread for people to discuss:

 

Year         FanGraphs Dollars Value             Mauer's Salary

2004                 $   3.7 M                                   $0.325 M

2005                 $ 11.4 M                                   $ 0.325 M

2006                 $  23.1 M                                  $0.4 M

2007                 $  12.7 M                                  $ 3.75 M

2008                 $  26.5 M                                  $ 6.25 M

2009                 $  34.4 M                                  $ 10.5 M

2010                 $  20.8 M                                  $ 12.5 M

2011                 $    6.0 M                                  $ 23.0 M (knee injury)

2012                 $  21.0 M                                  $ 23.0 M

2013                 $  25.6 M                                  $ 23.0 M

2014                 $  10.4 M                                  $ 23.0 M (late '13 concussion)

 

Total                 $195.0 M                                  $ 126.0 M

Contracts are forward looking documents, so past performance is interesting but irrelevant once negotiations begin.  Well, if he's a guy you really really want to sign (as was the case with Mauer), there's some give and take in recognition of contributions so far.  But, baseball's a business, and everyone in the business understands that young players are underpaid and you hit pay dirt several years in, and the pay dirt reflects estimated contributions going forward.  The sums relevant to this discussion start at year 2010, IMO.

 

Of course, left out of Fangraphs' dollar values are side issues like concession sales (jerseys with the name on the back) and butts-in-seats.

[jimmer]

 

 

Of course, left out of Fangraphs' dollar values are side issues like concession sales (jerseys with the name on the back) and butts-in-seats.

exactly.  that's just on field value.  I imagine he's been worth quite a bit in other ways as well.

[big dog]

I disagree. This is a look at contracts as they sit right now, not a look back at the strength of the original contract.

 

What's interesting is, I think I remember Mauer making this list a couple years ago, when he still was at catcher. It may have been ESPN's list, which I know is related to Grantland, but it was from a different writer. 

But a lot of those contracts were panned at the time, not just now.  Pujols and Hamilton, and Cabrera's extension, were just shocking amounts of money/years.  The article does refer to some of that as well, not just looking at how they've worked out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I saw this morsel in their discussion of Andrus's contract:

 

 

Dozier sprang immediately to mind.

I don't think the Andrus thing applies to Dozier, yet.  The Rangers had already bought out Andrus's arb years -- that's what we are discussing doing now in regards to Dozier.  The bad contract part was when the Rangers tacked a huge extension onto the end of their arb buyout deal.

 

At worst, we are talking about buying out a year or so of free agency on top of the arb years with Dozier, but that's very different from how the Rangers dealt with Andrus.

[jimmer]

I really like Dozier and the way he plays the game. I've been a fan of his for a long time. He's a quality MLB starter material and will be for awhile.  These kids we think MAY be good enough to play 2B EVENTUALLY, well, they aren't close to guaranteed to do so. I'm not comfortable with that assumption.  

[jimmer]

Along the same lines, Dave Cameron just did the 10 worst transactions this winter and had us signing Ervin Santana as the 8th worst transaction

 

'For what Santana is, the price is mostly okay. This is what durable league average starters are going for these days, and that’s clearly the mold that Santana belongs to. However, this is just the wrong team to be handing out a four year deal to an aging pitcher, especially with draft pick compensation attached. The Twins are going to be lousy again in 2015, and probably won’t be contenders for several more years, by which time Santana probably will be a drag on the payroll. Yes, bad teams need veteran placeholders, but better for them to bet on upside than pay for stability. Signing Phil Hughes last winter was a great example of what the Twins should be doing. This is just a run-in-place maneuver with minimal potential, however, and enough downside that the Twins will probably end up regretting this move.'

[nytwinsfan]

Along the same lines, Dave Cameron just did the 10 worst transactions this winter and had us signing Ervin Santana as the 8th worst transaction

 

'For what Santana is, the price is mostly okay. This is what durable league average starters are going for these days, and that’s clearly the mold that Santana belongs to. However, this is just the wrong team to be handing out a four year deal to an aging pitcher, especially with draft pick compensation attached. The Twins are going to be lousy again in 2015, and probably won’t be contenders for several more years, by which time Santana probably will be a drag on the payroll. Yes, bad teams need veteran placeholders, but better for them to bet on upside than pay for stability. Signing Phil Hughes last winter was a great example of what the Twins should be doing. This is just a run-in-place maneuver with minimal potential, however, and enough downside that the Twins will probably end up regretting this move.'

 

I agree about the Santana contract. I think the Hughes extension, while maybe not a top 10, was really good though.

[KGB]

Just to put some additional information in this thread for people to discuss:

 

Year         FanGraphs Dollars Value             Mauer's Salary

2004                 $   3.7 M                                   $0.325 M

2005                 $ 11.4 M                                   $ 0.325 M

2006                 $  23.1 M                                  $0.4 M

2007                 $  12.7 M                                  $ 3.75 M

2008                 $  26.5 M                                  $ 6.25 M

2009                 $  34.4 M                                  $ 10.5 M

2010                 $  20.8 M                                  $ 12.5 M

2011                 $    6.0 M                                  $ 23.0 M (knee injury)

2012                 $  21.0 M                                  $ 23.0 M

2013                 $  25.6 M                                  $ 23.0 M

2014                 $  10.4 M                                  $ 23.0 M (late '13 concussion)

 

 

I really dislike this comparison. It is based on price as a free agent which is worst case. The Twins roster last year is valued at 160 million. Doesn't seem like a good stat for salary projections when looked at as a whole.

[jimmer]

Just to put some additional information in this thread for people to discuss:

 

Year         FanGraphs Dollars Value             Mauer's Salary

2004                 $   3.7 M                                   $0.325 M

2005                 $ 11.4 M                                   $ 0.325 M

2006                 $  23.1 M                                  $0.4 M

2007                 $  12.7 M                                  $ 3.75 M

2008                 $  26.5 M                                  $ 6.25 M

2009                 $  34.4 M                                  $ 10.5 M

2010                 $  20.8 M                                  $ 12.5 M

2011                 $    6.0 M                                  $ 23.0 M (knee injury)

2012                 $  21.0 M                                  $ 23.0 M

2013                 $  25.6 M                                  $ 23.0 M

2014                 $  10.4 M                                  $ 23.0 M (late '13 concussion)

 

 

I really dislike this comparison. It is based on price as a free agent which is worst case. The Twins roster last year is valued at 160 million. Doesn't seem like a good stat for salary projections when looked at as a whole.

Isn't it based on what 1 WAR is worth in that given year?

[KGB]

Isn't it based on what 1 WAR is worth in that given year?

Yes, WAR times the free agency rate of replacement. So it is the seasons value if you got it through the free agency market.

[Paul Pleiss]

Essentially I don't care how bad Joe Mauer performs as he finishes out his contract. Nor would I have been too irate if the Twins had given him a $300mil contract. I would, however, have lost a lot of love for the Twins had Joe Mauer and the Twins not found a way to make things work and for him to stay in Minnesota. If Joe had signed with the Yankees, and the Twins had not at least offerend a matching contract, I probably would have found a new favorite team. I just don't see how the Twins could not have found a way to sign Joe Mauer, and it's through that light that I say when I said at the beginning of this comment. No matter how bad he gets, his contract was a win for the Twins. A no doubt, slam dunk, grand salami of a win.