Trade rumor: Buehrle

[ALessKosherScott]

Pinto, Deunsing, and a prospect like the 2B we drafted in 1rst round in 2010. for Beurhle and 3,000,000....

 

What do you think is a fair trade for Beurhle?

 

 

With a $16 million commitment, the Twins would be tying their hands for further moves. With more money coming with Buehrle, the Blue Jays are going to be asking for one of the Twins top prospects in return. Maybe not Buxton. But possibly a Stewart or if you're lucky a Lewis Thorpe.

 

With $16 million, you could make a move to pick up a Colby Rasmus in free agency and probably still have enough money to pick up a second tier starting pitcher to boot or even two or three pitchers if you're willing to take a shot at the Brett Andersons and Gavin Floyds of the world.

 

The Twins problems are too big for one pitcher to solve at a hefty salary alone. Pass.

[James Richter]

If you're not familiar with DIPS theory, please read this super-brief primer at FanGraphs:

 

www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/dips/

 

If the Twins FO is still making multi-million dollar personnel decisions based on pitcher evaluations that rely on ER, IP or W, we're doomed.

 

The most important pitchers to evaluate are the ones we already have under team control. Look at the Twins' starters ERA compared to their FIP/xFIP - the defense cost those guys 100 runs! Not to mention the bullpen: I looked at some game logs last night and found that in the 6 weeks from the beginning of August to mid-September, Duensing, Burton and Swarzak combined to allow 21 inherited runners to score. 21 ER in a 40-game span charged to other pitchers that better relievers might have stranded.

 

FIP/xFIP is what you use to predict future pitcher performance, with recent numbers weighted more heavily. Those metrics are telling us that the starters the Twins finished the season with are within a quarter of a run of the AL median. Fix the defense and the middle-relief, and the starters' ERA will drop by over a run.

[James Richter]

And as for Buerhle specifically, he has proven throughout his career that he is one of the special few pitchers who is skilled enough to outperform his FIP. He is tremendous at controlling the running game and is an exceptional fielder. His track record of durability is unrivaled - though at his age, something's gotta give sooner or later. I think he is HOF-worthy - in addition to everything he's done year-in, year-out, he's also got a ring and a perfect game on his resume.

 

But, I think the strategy for the offseason should be to bring in pitchers who can limit balls in play and have some upside beyond 2015. Buerhle's not a good fit for that, especially at that price tag. If there is $19M to spend on pitching, I'd rather see it go to Brett Anderson/Justin Masterson/Brandon Morrow ($8M), Andrew Miller ($7M), Luke Hochevar ($3M) and $1M for some bounce-back candidate (Andrew Bailey? Craig Breslow?). Spreading it around like that has the potential to do more good than tying it up in one rather old pitcher, no matter how good he's been for all these years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With a $16 million commitment, the Twins would be tying their hands for further moves. With more money coming with Buehrle, the Blue Jays are going to be asking for one of the Twins top prospects in return. Maybe not Buxton. But possibly a Stewart or if you're lucky a Lewis Thorpe.

 

With $16 million, you could make a move to pick up a Colby Rasmus in free agency and probably still have enough money to pick up a second tier starting pitcher to boot or even two or three pitchers if you're willing to take a shot at the Brett Andersons and Gavin Floyds of the world.

 

The Twins problems are too big for one pitcher to solve at a hefty salary alone. Pass.

Yep. The Jays have to view this as a salary dump or their price for Buerhle will be too high. I'm not sure what kind of financial constraints the Jays are under going into 2015 so there's a chance this deal might never get off the ground because the two parties are interested in very different things.

[Brandon]

Pinto would be a high cost, I would not do that.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of Gilmartin/Adam type pieces or minor league bullpen arms (i.e. if we're not sold on either Achter or Tonkin).  I guess Levi Michael might be a roughly equivalent position player.

I Figured if we traded Deunsing and also got back 3,000,000 then we would essentially be getting Beurhle n a 1 year 13 million contract and that is great.  we have several trade pieces but the management here doesn't seem to high on Pinto.  I do not object to including someone else.  I do know the Bluejays are wanting to be in win now mode so prospects are not likely to be their priority unless they are ready now and Pinto fits that and can take Lind's place.  I would be cool with a Gilmartin and the Bluejays keeping their 3,000,000.  I don't know if that benefits the Bluejays enough to make the trade.

[Brandon]

With a $16 million commitment, the Twins would be tying their hands for further moves. With more money coming with Buehrle, the Blue Jays are going to be asking for one of the Twins top prospects in return. Maybe not Buxton. But possibly a Stewart or if you're lucky a Lewis Thorpe.

 

With $16 million, you could make a move to pick up a Colby Rasmus in free agency and probably still have enough money to pick up a second tier starting pitcher to boot or even two or three pitchers if you're willing to take a shot at the Brett Andersons and Gavin Floyds of the world.

 

The Twins problems are too big for one pitcher to solve at a hefty salary alone. Pass.

its not a 16 million commitment its a 13 million after you subtract the 3 million that Deunsing is likely to earn in arbitration.  I believe the Twins are closer than you think to contending. 

 

1.  Get a starting pitcher to join the rotation so we have 4 starters we know can go 180-210 innings.  May and Meyer and Millone if he is not traded can duke it out for the 5th spot. 

1.A  Nolascoo comes back and pitches to a 4.00 era and 190-210 innings like he has in the past.

2.  We could use a LF.  we can also use the ones we have in house but then we might be relying on Hicks and I don't know if I want to do that without looking for other options.

3.  promote a couple power arms for the pen.  not a complete overhaul but one or 2 arms to start.

 

Those moves alone should make us a solid above .500 team.  There is no handcuffing of our budget.  And the cool thing about Buerhle, is if we want to keep him the following season we can make a QO and he will likely accept at his age or we get a draft pick.  Or some of our other prospects will be ready and need a place to pitch and we can let him go as a FA or trade him in season. 

 

Note I do believe there are lots of other pitching candidates out there if we want to add someone to the rotation, there are probably close to 10 solid starters available in a trade.  and we have plenty of trade chips: Pinto, Millone, Deunsing, Swarzak, Fien, Escobar, possibly Plouffe and prospects. and any combination there of.

[tobi0040]

its not a 16 million commitment its a 13 million after you subtract the 3 million that Deunsing is likely to earn in arbitration.  I believe the Twins are closer than you think to contending. 

 

1.  Get a starting pitcher to join the rotation so we have 4 starters we know can go 180-210 innings.  May and Meyer and Millone if he is not traded can duke it out for the 5th spot. 

1.A  Nolascoo comes back and pitches to a 4.00 era and 190-210 innings like he has in the past.

2.  We could use a LF.  we can also use the ones we have in house but then we might be relying on Hicks and I don't know if I want to do that without looking for other options.

3.  promote a couple power arms for the pen.  not a complete overhaul but one or 2 arms to start.

 

Those moves alone should make us a solid above .500 team.  There is no handcuffing of our budget.  And the cool thing about Buerhle, is if we want to keep him the following season we can make a QO and he will likely accept at his age or we get a draft pick.  Or some of our other prospects will be ready and need a place to pitch and we can let him go as a FA or trade him in season. 

 

Note I do believe there are lots of other pitching candidates out there if we want to add someone to the rotation, there are probably close to 10 solid starters available in a trade.  and we have plenty of trade chips: Pinto, Millone, Deunsing, Swarzak, Fien, Escobar, possibly Plouffe and prospects. and any combination there of.

 

Good point about getting Mark B. another year or a draft pick.  That alone is worth a B level prospect at least. 

[howeda7]

Agreed.   Seems to me the dis-taste for soft tossers is throwing the baby out with the bath water. The problem is the soft tossers we have had have not been any good.  Mark B. is good.

 

Nolasco an Pino put up about the same amount of innings last year as Mark.  200 IP at 3.39 versus an average of about 5.30.  That is 43 fewer runs allowed.  That would have brought us from -62 runs to -19 runs. 

 

My fear is that we add another AAAA starter or nobody, and have no depth or talent upgrade. Then Pelfrey and Pino types get a signficant amount of innings.  If we add Ervin that would be a better option, but Mark. B. seems more realistic given it is 1 year.

This. It doesn't have to be Buehrle, but the idea that we don't need to bring in a high level starter after two straight years with the worst rotation in baseball because of Tommy Milone, etc. is ridiculous

[Otto von Ballpark]

I looked at some game logs last night and found that in the 6 weeks from the beginning of August to mid-September, Duensing, Burton and Swarzak combined to allow 21 inherited runners to score. 21 ER in a 40-game span charged to other pitchers that better relievers might have stranded.

First of all, better relievers wouldn't have stranded all of those runners -- PERFECT relievers would have.

 

In 2014, Twins relievers allowed 31% of inherited runners to score, compared to a league average of 29%.  That was a difference of 6 runs for the whole season.

 

I know our bullpen could use some improvement, but don't pretend it was a serious factor handicapping our starting pitcher performances.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FIP/xFIP is what you use to predict future pitcher performance, with recent numbers weighted more heavily. Those metrics are telling us that the starters the Twins finished the season with are within a quarter of a run of the AL median. Fix the defense and the middle-relief, and the starters' ERA will drop by over a run.

FIP is useful but again I have to stress that it often under-shoots bad pitching performances.  Twins have under-performed their FIP every season since 2009, sometimes by considerable margins.  Furthermore, the 3 FA starters they signed last offseason all were career FIP underperformers when they came here, including Nolasco by a big margin.

 

I agree that the starting pitcher group is better than it was a year or two ago, and the defense could definitely use some improvement, but I don't think the 2014 group earned or deserved a 4.03 ERA either.  Nor it is likely that the same group will post that mark next year.

[tobi0040]

FIP is useful but again I have to stress that it often under-shoots bad pitching performances.  Twins have under-performed their FIP every season since 2009, sometimes by considerable margins.  Furthermore, the 3 FA starters they signed last offseason all were career FIP underperformers when they came here, including Nolasco by a big margin.

 

I agree that the starting pitcher group is better than it was a year or two ago, and the defense could definitely use some improvement, but I don't think the 2014 group earned or deserved a 4.03 ERA either.  Nor it is likely that the same group will post that mark next year.

 

FIP is usefull in short sequences.  After three starts in MN, Hughes had an ERA over 7.00 and an FIP in the mid 3's.  why?  He was striking guys out at a good clip, not walking anyone, but in each outing he gave up almost all his hits in the same inning.  That is an extreme example, FIP can be helpful over a year or two.

 

But when you have 1,000's of innings of actual results and FIP and ERA are a mile away, then FIP is close to useless in my opinion.  This is typically the result of a guy like Mark B. who outperforms his FIP year in and year out because the balls that are hit off him are weak (career 3.81 ERA and FIP of 4.10 ).  Or a guy like Ricky Nolasco, who k's guys but gets drilled (career 4.48 ERA and FIP of 3.82).

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know our bullpen could use some improvement, but don't pretend it was a serious factor handicapping our starting pitcher performances.

Only three teams had bullpens that threw more innings than the Twins pen.

 

So, in actuality, it's the other way around. The rotation is handicapping the bullpen by forcing them to throw too many innings.

 

If the Twins had a league-average bullpen in IP, they would have thrown about 40 less innings. That's over half a season of your worst reliever.

[tobi0040]

Only three teams had bullpens that threw more innings than the Twins pen.

 

So, in actuality, it's the other way around. The rotation is handicapping the bullpen by forcing them to throw too many innings.

 

If the Twins had a league-average bullpen in IP, they would have thrown about 40 less innings. That's over half a season of your worst reliever.

 

Mark B. and Nolasco bouncing back would help tremendously. 

[clone52]

No, no, no, no. Can you imagine a serious decline in Buehrle coupled with something similar from Nolasco 2015 as Nolasco 2014? They would then have a ridiculous expensive mess.

 

Buhrle would be a 1 year expensive mess who is wiped off the books in 2016.

 

I actually like the idea.  You're never going through a season without starting pitchers getting injured.  Right now the Twins have this.

 

Hughes

Nolasco

Gibson

May

Meyer

Milone

Pelfrey

 

Thats 7 starters.  No one wants Pelfrey to be in the mix, so that really means 6.  Milone is iffy.  If the Twins refuse to commit to 6 or 7 years to an ace, the might be better off spending $19 million for 1 year of Buerhle than committing $10 million for 4 years to a riskier pitcher like Nolasco.

 

You start the year with this rotation.

Hughes

Buehrle

Gibson

Nolasco

May

 

Meyer starts the year in the bull pen, hopefully to keep his innings down and gain confidence against big league hitters.  Santana started in the pen.  Wainwright started in the bull pen.

 

Milone either starts in AAA or in the bull pen.

 

By the end of the year, Mayer and Milone will probably have their chances to be a starter.  You might also get down to Berrios or Rogers.  If Nolasco doesn't bounce back, they will find he has another injury and that will get Meyer into the rotation.  If May really struggles, you could see him swapped out.

 

If the Twins get Buerhle and he does block a prospect like Meyer, it would mean the Twins had a very good year, in my opinion.  It would mean May was a solid starter, Nolasco bounced back to become a solid starter and the rotation stayed healthy all season.

[clone52]

This.  We were 6th in runs scored and had solid infield defense.  We don't have to be rebuilding anymore - we just need to add a pitcher in the 1-3 slot and an outfielder who can catch the ball and provide adequate offense.

 

I think people are assuming a lot to think that somehow May is a lock next year or any year.  There was nothing in his performance that woud indicate that; same with Milone, especially Darnell.  My bet is that Meyer is the one that makes the rotation and we setting aside Milone, May and Pelfrey for spot duty.  Not only do I not have a problem with this, I endorse this.

 

I think May is a lock for sure, to at least get 2-3 months worth of starts to show if he is ready.  If he's a disaster for 2 or 3 months, then he may get sent down.  He absolutely showed something in his September performance.  You'd have to be blind not to see it.

 

Meyer August: 0 quality starts, 10.42 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 6.6 BB/9,  13.2 H/9

Meyer Sept: 2 quality starts, 6.08 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 9.8 H/9

 

Significant improvement in every area and he deserves every opportunity to see if he can continue that movement.

 

If you remove his 1 bad start in September, his ERA in his other 4 starts was 4.50.

 

I am really excited for Alex Meyer and can't wait to see him pitch, but giving Meyer the starting spot at the expense of May is a terrible idea.

 

Meyer pitched a limited number of innings last year.  He can't pitch 200 next year.  If he starts the season in the rotation next year and dominates, he won't be able to pitch the entire year.  Its a far better idea to have him start in the bullpen, maybe for half a season or a full season, then if/when a rotation spot opens, he can fill it.  Plus, it allows you to see if he can get big league hitters out, and builds his confidence in short bursts.  Its not a bad path for a pitcher.

 

Pitchers who started in the bullpen and moved to the rotation.

Johan Santana

Adam Wainwright

Chris Sale

Garrett Richards

Zach Greinke (started games in 2004, struggled starting in 2005, spent 2006 in the minors), relieved in 2007 and turned into an Ace in 2008)

Max Scherzer

David Price (more of a need for a playoff chase, but still)

Mark Buehrle

[clone52]

I completely agree there's room to add a starter on this roster.  I'd heavily question that a 35 year old with one year remaining at $19M is the best way to do that.

 

If this were last year and the choice was 1 year of Buehrle for $19M or Nolasco for 4/52, what would the right choice be?

 

If you decide you must add a "veteran pitcher" to the staff, there are really 4 options.

1)  Sign an ace to a 6 or 7 year deal for 20-25 million a year.  The Twins won't do this.

2)  Sign a mid rotation starter to a t-5 year deal at 10-15 per year.  This is what the Twins did last year with Nolasco and it burned them.

3)  Take a flyer on a rebound guy like Hughes.  Twins got lucky last year, could again.

4)  Trade for an aging veteran like Buehle.

 

I like option 4.  Sure, they might overpay woefully for one year if he flames out, but he's not tying up a rotation spot down the line.

[Thegrin]

This I agree with, the only way a Buehrle trade makes sense for the Twins is if at the same time they can unload Nolasco. That or if the Twins can find a match with another team for a somewhat underperforming starter with past success like Nolasco. One way or another it would be nice for the Twins to be rid of Nolasco, he just doesn't fit here. Nolasco and the Twins are not a good fit.

Not a good fit ?  Yes, he was not good in 2014.  Will he better in 2015?  If he is, why not in Minnesota ?

Why is Nolasco not a good fit for the Twins ?

[Linus]

I think May is a lock for sure, to at least get 2-3 months worth of starts to show if he is ready. If he's a disaster for 2 or 3 months, then he may get sent down. He absolutely showed something in his September performance. You'd have to be blind not to see it.

 

Meyer August: 0 quality starts, 10.42 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 6.6 BB/9, 13.2 H/9

Meyer Sept: 2 quality starts, 6.08 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 9.8 H/9

 

Significant improvement in every area and he deserves every opportunity to see if he can continue that movement.

 

If you remove his 1 bad start in September, his ERA in his other 4 starts was 4.50.

 

I am really excited for Alex Meyer and can't wait to see him pitch, but giving Meyer the starting spot at the expense of May is a terrible idea.

 

Meyer pitched a limited number of innings last year. He can't pitch 200 next year. If he starts the season in the rotation next year and dominates, he won't be able to pitch the entire year. Its a far better idea to have him start in the bullpen, maybe for half a season or a full season, then if/when a rotation spot opens, he can fill it. Plus, it allows you to see if he can get big league hitters out, and builds his confidence in short bursts. Its not a bad path for a pitcher.

 

Pitchers who started in the bullpen and moved to the rotation.

Johan Santana

Adam Wainwright

Chris Sale

Garrett Richards

Zach Greinke (started games in 2004, struggled starting in 2005, spent 2006 in the minors), relieved in 2007 and turned into an Ace in 2008)

Max Scherzer

David Price (more of a need for a playoff chase, but still)

Mark Buehrle

I think you've got your names mixed up but no matter. You would have to be blind to see anything in May's September to hand him a spot next year out of spring training unless you are OK with another flawed lineup.

[jorgenswest]

FIP is usefull in short sequences.  After three starts in MN, Hughes had an ERA over 7.00 and an FIP in the mid 3's.  why?  He was striking guys out at a good clip, not walking anyone, but in each outing he gave up almost all his hits in the same inning.  That is an extreme example, FIP can be helpful over a year or two.

 

But when you have 1,000's of innings of actual results and FIP and ERA are a mile away, then FIP is close to useless in my opinion.  This is typically the result of a guy like Mark B. who outperforms his FIP year in and year out because the balls that are hit off him are weak (career 3.81 ERA and FIP of 4.10 ).  Or a guy like Ricky Nolasco, who k's guys but gets drilled (career 4.48 ERA and FIP of 3.82).

It should be just the opposite. With a large sample it will point to a good or bad defense. With small samples it is meaningless and could be luck. The large sample takes the luck out of it.

 

Buehrle has skills that have been demonstrated to lead to an ERA better than FIP. He pitches well with runners on base. He holds runners on well. Both lead to more stranded runners. He still puts a lot of balls in play and needs a good defense behind him.

[DocBauer]

First of all, I absolutely don't understand the dislike towards Nolasco. The 6 years prior to joining the Twins, (based on some previous research I did) he was very consistent in averaging 13 Wins vs 10 Losses and averaged 191 2/3 IP. The only thing he's done wrong was have the unmitigated gall to be injured in his first year of a new 4 year FA deal.

 

Secondly, while not seriously injured, he's not very tradable at this point, especially if the Jays want to dump salary.

 

Third, Nolasco's average numbers the last several seasons aren't far removed from Buehrle or Ervin Santana.

 

Fourth, I don't want to block opportunity for May or Meyer, but I don't think acquiring a SP option for '15 will necessarily do that. Sometimes you have to think of NOW, and not next year. Further, teams often need 6 or more SP in a season, plus there are bullpen and trade options. I believe the Twins need to make a move somewhere. And if we could pick up Buehrle for next to nothing, with at least a little financial contract relief, I wouldn't be opposed. He could be a huge boon to the rotation. But, finances are a part of the equation. And sooner or later, probably sooner, his remarkable streak if IP and consistency are going to come to an end. And he will be 36 this season. In the long run, wouldn't we probably be better off spending our finances on an OF, possibly a RP, and a solid/comeback SP?

[USAFChief]

It should be just the opposite. With a large sample it will point to a good or bad defense. With small samples it is meaningless and could be luck. The large sample takes the luck out of it.

Buehrle has skills that have been demonstrated to lead to an ERA better than FIP. He pitches well with runners on base. He holds runners on well. Both lead to more stranded runners. He still puts a lot of balls in play and needs a good defense behind him.

That seems like a contradiction to me. If Buehrle "has skills that have been demonstrated to lead to an ERA better than FIP," what does that have to do with defense?

[jorgenswest]

That seems like a contradiction to me. If Buehrle "has skills that have been demonstrated to lead to an ERA better than FIP," what does that have to do with defense?

Not at all. A single pitcher may have skill to explain some difference in FIP and ERA. Buehrle would probably be among the most extreme example of out pitching his FIP. A significant difference in team data with many more innings than a single pitcher can not be explained similarly.

[The Wise One]

 Any player acquired by giving up cost controlled players will get PT regardless of results.

Alex Meyer says hello and wants to know if he was forgotten about

[The Wise One]

It should be just the opposite. With a large sample it will point to a good or bad defense. With small samples it is meaningless and could be luck. The large sample takes the luck out of it.

 

Buehrle has skills that have been demonstrated to lead to an ERA better than FIP. He pitches well with runners on base. He holds runners on well. Both lead to more stranded runners. He still puts a lot of balls in play and needs a good defense behind him.

If he pitches well with men on base wouldn't he have better than a league average lob%? He is league average.

[clone52]

I think you've got your names mixed up but no matter. You would have to be blind to see anything in May's September to hand him a spot next year out of spring training unless you are OK with another flawed lineup.

 

I did get my names mixed up in one spot, but I did post May's numbers from August and September.  Both months had five starts.  His numbers clearly improved.  His residual numbers were fantastic.  Unless he bombs in spring training, he should definitely get a rotation spot, unless the Twins shock everyone and sign Lester and Masterson, or 2 guys to take rotation spots.

 

May should definitely get a rotation spot over Meyer (unless something crazy happens in spring training).  Meyer only pitched 130 innings last year, so if he pitches decent in spring training, I believe he should be up with Minnesota, but should start the season in the bullpen.  Give him a little time there, then move him to the rotation.

[tobi0040]

That seems like a contradiction to me. If Buehrle "has skills that have been demonstrated to lead to an ERA better than FIP," what does that have to do with defense?

And this just does not pass the smell test either.  The guy has been too consistent across 14 years to say defense plays a role, especially the white sox.  When have they ever been known as a good defensive team?

 

I think teams generally don't get solid contact on him.  He picks guys off and generally controls the run game very well.  Those are the factors over 15 years.  Too big of a sample size to give his stats to defense or something other than him.

[tobi0040]

If he pitches well with men on base wouldn't he have better than a league average lob%? He is league average.

 

I wonder if a pick off counts as LOB or not.  He has 87 career picks offs, 3rd all time (Pettitte and Carlton).

[Willihammer]

Alex Meyer says hello and wants to know if he was forgotten about

I'm pretty sure Meyer will get an extended look too, when he finally does crack the big league roster.

 

All I'm saying, and I don't understand how anyone who's followed this team can debate this, is that if the Twins invest in a multi-million dollar pitcher, he's not going to be a part-time pitcher. The Twins will run him into the ground, then try and re-sign him, as they did with Pavano, Pelfrey, Capps, etc. I'm all for bringing in an established starting pitcher to mitigate our reliance on rookies like May and Meyer, I just prefer that it be someone ~10 years younger who is less likely to implode in a Pavano like fashion after the Twins inevitably double down on the guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

All I'm saying, and I don't understand how anyone who's followed this team can debate this, is that if the Twins invest in a multi-million dollar pitcher, he's not going to be a part-time pitcher. The Twins will run him into the ground, then try and re-sign him, as they did with Pavano, Pelfrey, Capps, etc. I'm all for bringing in an established starting pitcher to mitigate our reliance on rookies like May and Meyer, I just prefer that it be someone ~10 years younger who is less likely to implode in a Pavano like fashion after the Twins inevitably double down on the guy.

Jason Marquis?  Released outright after 7 starts.

 

The Pavano and Pelfrey "implosions" were both injury related, and they went to the DL relatively quickly (1-2 months).  Ramon Ortiz was dropped from the rotation after 10 starts and traded a couple months later.  Livan Hernandez, Rick Reed, and Kevin Correia lasted longer, but all were dealt in early August of their "bad" seasons.

 

The worst examples of this were Blackburn and Mays, but those guys were untradeable on multi-year deals.

 

And none of these guys has nearly the track record (long- or short-term) or upside of Mark Buehrle.

 

I get what you are saying -- I'd prefer a younger acquisition too -- but I'd easily take Buehrle before I stand pat, settle for Rich Harden, perhaps even before I'd settle for another Nolasco or Josh Johnson, or overpay in terms of prospects for a trade acquisition.

[tobi0040]

Jason Marquis?  Released outright after 7 starts.

 

The Pavano and Pelfrey "implosions" were both injury related, and they went to the DL relatively quickly (1-2 months).  Ramon Ortiz was dropped from the rotation after 10 starts and traded a couple months later.  Livan Hernandez, Rick Reed, and Kevin Correia lasted longer, but all were dealt in early August of their "bad" seasons.

 

The worst examples of this were Blackburn and Mays, but those guys were untradeable on multi-year deals.

 

And none of these guys has nearly the track record (long- or short-term) or upside of Mark Buehrle.

 

I get what you are saying -- I'd prefer a younger acquisition too -- but I'd easily take Buehrle before I stand pat, settle for Rich Harden, perhaps even before I'd settle for another Nolasco or Josh Johnson, or overpay in terms of prospects for a trade acquisition.

 

That is my thing. The only guy on the FA market that I would rather have, that is realisticly a target of the Twins is Ervin Santana.  But that depends on contract length and price.  On the trade front, I think most guys that fit the talented and young profile are going to cost much, much more in terms of prospects.

 

And if we are going to do a one year deal, I would rather have Mark B. over someone who has been up and down like Masterson or Morrow, because I feel like Mark B. has a better shot at being better next year.  We just can't have another 5.00+ ERA guy.