Article: Postseason Review: Phil Hughes

[stringer bell]

Barring injury, Phil Hughes will be the opening day starting pitcher for the Twins in 2015. Hughes pitched in 2014 as a 28-year old, so he was one of the younger free-agent signees inked in the offseason.

 

He was the Twins best and most reliable starting pitcher last year by far. Hughes was signed to a three-year $24M contract coming off a 4-14 season with the New York Yankees, a team that won 85 games. Hughes had allowed 24 homers in 145+ innings for the Yanks and the thought was that a new location and less pressure would allow for improvement.It was not just improvement, but a sea change. Hughes started rather slowly in April, not getting his first win until his fourth start and recording a 5.14 ERA for the month. Hughes walked six batters in his first four starts, then proceeded to walk 10 (10!) in his final 28 starts. He was regarded as a pitcher with good control, but nothing like what he put up this season. He kept his team in the game almost every outing. He struck out eight hitters per nine innings while walking .7 per nine, setting a record for the highest K/BB ratio in a single season and leading the league with fewest walks per innings pitched. Hughes' 3.52 ERA was good, but his FIP of 2.65 was much better.

 

Hughes this week earned Twins Diamond Award hardware as both Pitcher of the Year and MVP. His fine season was arguably the best by a free agent signee this year. Now, as we turn the page to 2015, we all wonder if Hughes can sustain his excellent 2014 campaign. He did set a career high for innings pitched and batters faced, and he's coming off a season when he allowed only .7 homers per nine, about half his mark in New York. Also, Hughes has had strong seasons in even-numbered years. Can he break the jinx and put up good numbers in consecutive seasons?

 

There are reasons to expect some regression, but also reasons to believe Hughes has "found it". there isn't really another season where he practically walked no one. However, there is hope he will be backed by an improved defensive outfield. I also can't see Hughes continuing to suppress home runs as well as he did in 2014. It does make sense that Hughes would perform closer to his FIP and perhaps allow a lower number of hits per inning pitched. Hughes' ability to "pound the strike zone" seems ingrained in his approach and has, no doubt, been effective for him.

 

Hughes was regarded as an extreme fly ball pitcher and indeed he has allowed many balls to be put in the air. His air out percentage is one of the higher ones in the league, but it has worked for him.

 

With all the failures of pitchers brought in to the Twins, Hughes was both a pleasant surprise and an advertisement that finding the right free agent is possible. Any thought of contending revolves around him backing up last year's success with another strong season.

 

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[Brandon]

I wonder how  new pitching coach will affect his pitching.

[RedBull34]

While that FIP is impressive, something makes me think he will never achieve that in reality, even with a fantastic defense behind him.

[Thrylos]

Donuts to dollars, if Nolasco is still with the Twins by opening day 2015 and he is healthy, he will be the opening day starter.

 

Hughes' 2014 performance was pretty close to his 2013, if you don't count ERA and W-L stuff.  He did decrease his walk rate a lot. That was the only difference

[nytwinsfan]

No way they give Nolasco the opening day start over Hughes.

[Dantes929]

Fly ball pitcher with a horrible defensive outfield.   I would guess that Buxton added to the mix will instantly vault the outfield defense as a unit up to average which will be a nice cushion against any regression Hughes experiences.

[Physics Guy]

Great season by Hughes.  I might expect some regression, but he would still most likely be our #1.  An improvement in the OF defense would help him significantly and help limit any regression.  Anything close to this season is a great ROI for the Twins.

[USAFChief]

Donuts to dollars, if Nolasco is still with the Twins by opening day 2015 and he is healthy, he will be the opening day starter.

 

Hughes' 2014 performance was pretty close to his 2013, if you don't count ERA and W-L stuff.  He did decrease his walk rate a lot. That was the only difference

I'll take that bet. My one dozen Crispy Kremes against your one dozen dollars.

 

Deal?

[glunn]

Donuts to dollars, if Nolasco is still with the Twins by opening day 2015 and he is healthy, he will be the opening day starter.

 

If gambling were legal I would take that bet.  It seems to me that Hughes will be treated as the ace until someone else earns that role.  I can see Nolasco getting the opening day start only if Hughes is injured.  

[glunn]

I was hoping that stringer would move on to the pitchers and he has not disappointed.

 

I don't know how stringer finds the time to do such a great job on these articles.  I do know that every one of them has been excellent and has promoted interesting discussion.  Thanks, stringer.

[Mike Frasier Law]

 

 

Donuts to dollars, if Nolasco is still with the Twins by opening day 2015 and he is healthy, he will be the opening day starter.

 

Hughes' 2014 performance was pretty close to his 2013, if you don't count ERA and W-L stuff.  He did decrease his walk rate a lot. That was the only difference

 

I'd take that bet. Hughes's most notable improvement from 2013 was his walk rate, but he also struck out .5/9 more and increased his gb% by 6 points. I think those are notable improvements as well.

Edited October 20, 2014 by Mike Frasier Law

[ashbury]

Donuts to dollars, if Nolasco is still with the Twins by opening day 2015 and he is healthy, he will be the opening day starter.

Most donuts cost more than a dollar these days, not sure which way you're saying the smart money bets.

[bird]

I'll take that bet. My one dozen Crispy Kremes against your one dozen dollars.

 

Deal?

Go for the donuts, you fool!

[James Richter]

Hughes could regress significantly and still be as good as James Shields was this season. If he continues to perform at this rate he will be the most coveted SP at the trade deadline next year - the Twins could easily cash him in for a trade package akin to what Shields and Samardiza netted. Or hang onto him if things are breaking the right way next year. Even if he regresses horribly, he's already provided value in excess of his contract. Win-win.

 

Now the trick is to locate and sign the guy who will be the next Phil Hughes...

[Brock Beauchamp]

No way they give Nolasco the opening day start over Hughes.

I don't think it matters one bit but yeah, Hughes will get the nod on Opening Day unless he falls apart in ST.

[Dantes929]

You are right Brock.  Opening Day start is overrated.  Sometimes I think it would be helpful for a team like the Twins have been lately to reverse their order anyway.    1-5 is probably a mismatch right across the rotation against some teams.   5-1 order and the Twins should own the mismatch in at least two of the starts.

[stringer bell]

I don't think it matters one bit but yeah, Hughes will get the nod on Opening Day unless he falls apart in ST.

If Hughes says he's healthy, no amount of poor outings in ST will change anything.

[DocBauer]

While there could be regression in some areas, there could be improvement in others, especially if the OF defense is shorn up. I believe Hughes, while not an ACE is a top of the rotation talent and will prove to generally be as effective next season as this one.

 

With respect and no malicious intent, this is simply not Scott Diamond part 2.

[Physics Guy]

While there could be regression in some areas, there could be improvement in others, especially if the OF defense is shorn up. I believe Hughes, while not an ACE is a top of the rotation talent and will prove to generally be as effective next season as this one. With respect and no malicious intent, this is simply not Scott Diamond part 2.

I don't think anybody was suggesting he was Scott Diamond part 2, were we?  Even with regression he is most likely our #1 next year.

[Linus]

Hughes could regress significantly and still be as good as James Shields was this season. If he continues to perform at this rate he will be the most coveted SP at the trade deadline next year - the Twins could easily cash him in for a trade package akin to what Shields and Samardiza netted. Or hang onto him if things are breaking the right way next year. Even if he regresses horribly, he's already provided value in excess of his contract. Win-win.

 

Now the trick is to locate and sign the guy who will be the next Phil Hughes...

Let's see, we were 28th in the league for starting pitching and we want to trade the only good starter we have that is signed at a bargain contract. 

Let me think about that a little longer to see if it comes to me.....