Article: Nationals Should Not Be Lone Suitor For Denard Span

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?631-Nationals-Should-Not-Be-Lone-Suitor-For-Denard-Span

[Bark's Lounge]

I don't see a fit with these three teams. We definitely are not going to get Zach Lee, Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, Billy Hamilton, or Mesoraco in a deal for Span - I'm not too excited about the other prospects that were named and as far as the Dodgers, Orioles, and Red's are concerned... I have a hard time envisioning them being desperate to make this kind of trade this season.

[twinswon1991]

Span will not bring any of those prospects in return. You are looking at 2 upside type pitchers who are in A ball and in the 5-15 range on their team's prospect lists.

 

I think the best fit for both Willingham and Span is the Indians. They are starting to look like contenders and have some brutal options in the OF/DH spots. Not a big deal to trade in the division if you are in a multi year rebuild like the Twins are.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, I don't see much mix with this teams. I'll stand by my thoughts that th Twins and Rangers are great trade partners for Span, Morneau and Willingham. There's no way they're getting a 5-star type of prospect for Span. Maybe I'm dreaming too in hoping they might be able to get a 4 star and maybe two 3 stars.

[nicksaviking]

I actually think the Dodgers will be sniffing around Morneau. They are in need of a replacement for James Loney who will likely be non-tendered after the season seeing as he is 4th year arbitration eligible and is possibly the worst offensive 1B that continues to get the opening day starting gig.

[Thrylos]

Been saying this for a while: I think that my local team (the Phillies) is the best Twins' partner for such a trade because it has a lot of good young stuck pitching and a serious OF need. Might take a couple more pieces to make it work, but...

 

and I am dead serious about the Phillies being it. And they will overspend for someone like Span (just ask the 'voice of reason' )

[Bark's Lounge]

Been saying this for a while: I think that my local team (the Phillies) is the best Twins' partner for such a trade because it has a lot of good young stuck pitching and a serious OF need. Might take a couple more pieces to make it work, but...

 

and I am dead serious about the Phillies being it. And they will overspend for someone like Span (just ask the 'voice of reason' )

Just for fun - throw out a trade scenario involving The Twins and Phillies involving Span - Curious minds want to know!

[drivlikejehu]

Considering the fact Span's signed through 2014 (plus a '15 option), I don't see any point in trading him for a mediocre return. They could always do that later. If no one wants to pay a high price, then he can just remain with the Twins. The organization won't be rebuilt with a few C+ prospects here and there.

[Bark's Lounge]

Maybe I'm dreaming too in hoping they might be able to get a 4 star and maybe two 3 stars.

If this is only a dream - then you straight up do not trade Span... over and done.

[jorgenswest]

Looking back at in season CF trades over last few years. Atlanta has made two trades trying to find a CF. Last year they traded for Michael Bourn (Gold Glove and All Star 2010) and in 2009 they traded for Nate McLouth (an All Star and Gold Glove winner in 2008).

 

Ranked by WAR, Span finds himself ranked 13th of 18 qualifiers.

 

Michael Bourn brought Jordan Schafer, Juan Abreu, Paul Clemens and Brett Oberholtzer. The Braves did not give up any of their better pitching prospects.

Nate McLouth brought Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke. At the time of the trade, Hernandez had made an appearance in the Baseball America top 100 and #4 Atlanta prospect . Locke made some organizational top 10s.

 

It is hard to imagine that Span will bring worth more than Bourn and McLouth at the time of their trade. It isn't even reasonable that he is on par with these players at the time of the trade. In that case, the better course is to keep Span.

[pjnelly]

Here is optimism at its finest: on June 6th, 2006 the MN Twins had 25 wins and 32 losses--they were 11.5 games out of 1st place. Lets talk trades in July, not in early June.

[striker_86]

I think the rangers would make a great trade partner....as much as I love span, now is the time to dump him and get something back<br>

[righty8383]

Jorgenswest, that was a great post but I will counter a couple things. While WAR is a great stat, it does not tell the whole story. Span is one of the best in the game at making pitchers work. He often does what a leadoff hitter should do and works the count early in the game. You also have to consider the contract, which is very team friendly. This of course plays a very big factor in his overall trade value. Those two things (mainly the contract status) make me believe the Twins should be able to get more than Bourn and McLouth. If not, then yeah, we gotta keep him.

[Highabove]

There is no reason to trade Span in till someone is willing to overpay.

Whats the rush?

[glunn]

I just hope that this is not going to be a repeat of last year, where the Twins were contending enough that they made no big trades, then got flushed down the toilet after the trade deadline. If the Twins are less than 7 games out at the trade deadline, it seems likely that they might be buyers, not sellers, in order to keep the attendance figures higher and in the hope that they can make the playoffs. And if Mauer/Morneau/Span/Willingham could all have career seasons, and Ploufee and some others could play to their potential (and the starting pitchers could pitch like they have during the past 8 games), the Twins could be in first place in the division by the trade deadline.

[Land Of 10,000 Beasts]

I like Span but we have plenty of young outfielders ready to get their feet wet so I wouldn't complain if we traded him to any of these teams. I don't really care who we trade him to, as long as it isn't within the division and not to the Yankees, not that they would want him.

[John Bonnes]

In retrospect, I wish I had left the top prospects off of each team, since they clearly distracted from the story. Listing them was not to suggest I think Span could be traded for them. It was simply a reference to get thoughts going.

 

Thryloss, I almost listed Philly. I didn't because Juan Pierre hasn't turned into a pumpkin yet. It seemed premature.

 

I'm puzzled by the Texas stuff. I wonder if it's driven more by what WE want than what THEY want. Ian Kinsler is their leadoff hitter. Hamilton is their center fielder. The other corner OFs are Cruz and Murphy. And their top priority is a right-handed hitting outfielder. I don't see Span as a great fit for them.

[roger]

John, I expect that Mr. Ryan views the Twins much different than most of us. He is looking at putting the Twins back into contention next year. I expect that he sees a team that is really pretty good throughout its everyday lineup, assuming they stay healthy. The bullpen fixes he did have worked very well and there are four/five arms in Rochester about major league ready. The problem, the starting rotation including the health of Pavano/Baker. I think he sees a team that needs to add two solid starters and they can be back.

 

If he is thinking like that, he isn't going to be trading away any of his better players just to be doing something. Yes, he will listen to phone calls and if someone blows him away for Span or another player...he certainly will listen. But I suspect we are going to see a lot less moves between now and July 31 than most people expect.

[Blackjack]

John, I expect that Mr. Ryan views the Twins much different than most of us. He is looking at putting the Twins back into contention next year. I expect that he sees a team that is really pretty good throughout its everyday lineup, assuming they stay healthy. The bullpen fixes he did have worked very well and there are four/five arms in Rochester about major league ready. The problem, the starting rotation including the health of Pavano/Baker. I think he sees a team that needs to add two solid starters and they can be back.

I think you hit it on the head right there. Unless the Twins really tank between now and the trade deadline, Terry R. is not going to hold a fire sale.

 

Personally I wouldn't trade Span unless they get a stud prospect in return.

[clutterheart]

This is why I am glad Ryan is the GM. He won't get focused on one team / scenario and he has the balls to walk away from a deal if its not good.

[Loosey]

I agree with whoever mentioned that we shouldn't just trade Span to trade him. He is under contract for a few more years and is a pretty good leadoff hitter and center fielder. If you can't receive some top prospects for him in return then why bother making a trade. The reason for trading established players is to build for the future, and you aren't going to improve in the future if you trade away the better players you have now for fringe prospects unless you have a younger player in your system who is ready to take the place of the guy you are trading. And I don't believe the Twins have that guy in place yet, Revere isn't ready and doesn't have the arm for CF and Hicks is still toiling in AA. Stand pat on Span unless they are blown away.

[John Bonnes]

The bullpen fixes he did have worked very well and there are four/five arms in Rochester about major league ready. The problem, the starting rotation including the health of Pavano/Baker. I think he sees a team that needs to add two solid starters and they can be back.

Roger, I agree that Ryan is probably not in a hurry to give any of these guys away, least of all Span. He shouldn't be; the purpose of this story is to suggest there should be plenty of demand for him. (My god but the Reds could use Span badly.) And I've debated whether breaking up the top/middle of the lineup is a good idea, because rebuilding that is harder than people think.

 

But Ryan cannot be thinking this team is a starting arm or two away from contention. Pavano and Baker are free agents and neither is certain, or even particularly likely, to be healthy enough to be effective next year. Blackie has been bad. Liriano will be gone. They're already scraping the bottom of the bucket with Cole DeVries and receiving way more than they can count on from Scott Diamond and PJ Walters. Gibson and Wimmers are huge question marks. They are actively resisting moving Swarzak and Duensing to the rotation, probably wisely.

 

There MIGHT be enough options there to piece together 800-900 innings, but not enough talent to contend, at least not next year. Ryan has to see that.

[Mike Sixel]

I do not understand the posts stating they should not trade him just to trade him. No on is making that argument. I still think Arizona should be the trade partner target....they have three pitchers in the top 18 prospects in all of baseball.

[twinswon1991]

I do not understand the posts stating they should not trade him just to trade him. No on is making that argument. I still think Arizona should be the trade partner target....they have three pitchers in the top 18 prospects in all of baseball.

Sorry pal but Gerrardo Parra is Arizonas 4TH OF and is a far better offensive and defensive player than Span. If a team really needs a good/cheap/young CF they will be after Parra not Span.

[gunnarthor]

Span's a good trade chip but unless we get a Pence like deal for him, keep him. As others noted, there's no point in trading him for low level prospects. With the additional wild card, a lot more teams will be in playoff races, Span's deal is good enough that small market teams can afford him. Wait until the deadline and hopefully one team overpays. If no one is willing to make a good deal, keep Span.

[jmlease1]

If there's a real bidding war for Span and we can get some high-upside prospects for him, then I guess you have to seriously consider it. but considering Span's value as A) a lead-off hitter and a good CF, and C) a guy who has proven to be a superior defensive player at LF, and D) has a good contract I don't want him dumped near the trade deadline. Span should only get moved for the right trade.

 

I agree with John, there should be multiple teams interested in dealing for Span for all of those factors. But I don't know if there are enough teams willing to give up serious prospects to make it a value move for the twins. I understand that the twins have some serious rotation issues and 1 arm isn't going to fix it...but the team should also have money to spend on more than one in free agency, and if guys like Diamond prove it over the course of the season, we're not quite as far back as one might think, especially since the offense seems to be solid.

 

The Twins are in an interesting and difficult position in their rebuild. They don't want to tear the whole thing down because they have some nice pieces, they just moved into a new stadium and don't want to crash the attendance, and they don't want to become KC/Pittsburgh rolling the dice on prospects for a decade. At the same time, they're not well-constructed to win in the short-term because the starting rotation has collapsed through age & injury & ineffectiveness.

[roger]

But Ryan cannot be thinking this team is a starting arm or two away from contention.

 

There MIGHT be enough options there to piece together 800-900 innings, but not enough talent to contend, at least not next year. Ryan has to see that.

John, I believe they are two good starters away from competing. We are seeing that Scott Diamond will be an effective starter, one capable of filling one of the #3-#5 spots in the rotation. If you read my stuff every week, you know I believe that Liam Hendriks is going to be very good and should be back and pitching well later in the year. That is two, lets say #3 and #4. The fifth starter can come from a combination of Walters, DeVries, Blackburn, Gibson and Baker. I believe that at the end of the year (October) when he is beginning to throw, the Twins will work out something on Baker's contract and he will be back. Will he be ready on opening day, unlikely. Gibson could, but both should be ready during the season to fill in if one of the starting five fails or is injured.

 

That leaves two spots open. Yes, they are #1 and #2 which he will have to fill. As I look at the rest of the team, it is solid for next year. Fill those two spots and the Twins should be very good. Can they possibly do that by trading someone like Span for a young stud who will fill one of those two spots...maybe. In that case Mr. Ryan will have to evaluate what he has in the outfield and at the top of the order. Another option would be to package Liriano for a young starter in July...assuming the Frankie we saw the last two times out keeps showing up for another 7-8 starts!

[cr9617]

John, I believe they are two good starters away from competing. We are seeing that Scott Diamond will be an effective starter, one capable of filling one of the #3-#5 spots in the rotation. If you read my stuff every week, you know I believe that Liam Hendriks is going to be very good and should be back and pitching well later in the year. That is two, lets say #3 and #4. The fifth starter can come from a combination of Walters, DeVries, Blackburn, Gibson and Baker. I believe that at the end of the year (October) when he is beginning to throw, the Twins will work out something on Baker's contract and he will be back. Will he be ready on opening day, unlikely. Gibson could, but both should be ready during the season to fill in if one of the starting five fails or is injured.

 

That leaves two spots open. Yes, they are #1 and #2 which he will have to fill. As I look at the rest of the team, it is solid for next year. Fill those two spots and the Twins should be very good. Can they possibly do that by trading someone like Span for a young stud who will fill one of those two spots...maybe. In that case Mr. Ryan will have to evaluate what he has in the outfield and at the top of the order. Another option would be to package Liriano for a young starter in July...assuming the Frankie we saw the last two times out keeps showing up for another 7-8 starts!

That is wishful thinking, at best. I sure hope the FO doesn't see it this way. That rotation you just named has a lot of IFs, and even IF all of those thing fall in place...it's still a below average rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

Sorry pal but Gerrardo Parra is Arizonas 4TH OF and is a far better offensive and defensive player than Span. If a team really needs a good/cheap/young CF they will be after Parra not Span.

I was not talking about Span per se.

[Winston Smith]

We've been hearing for a week from Coomer how the Twins can get back in the race. But does anyone really think this is a playoff team. They had the worst record in the AL last year and for the first third of this year. Right now the Rangers have the best record at .579 and if the Twins were to play Ranger quality ball the rest of the way they'd finish with 83 wins. Let's hope Ryan is realistic, not dreaming and will work hard before the trade deadline to rebuild the talent level on this team.