Year to year SP improvement

[Mike Frasier Law]

I'm sure I'm not alone in being frustrated with the slow rebuilding process, but as an optimist, I always look for an excuse to hope. I knew our starting staff was historically miserable last year, so I decided to compare how our staff is this year. Then I decided to go on a wild goose chase. Whoops!

 

Here is a link to the SP lines for each year since 2010 for the Twins. The first thing I noticed was how shudderingly awfur the last two years were. Our starters did not pitch 900 innings. They didn't notch 40 wins. And of course team ERA of 5.26 and 5.40 just make me sad (along with the 2.8 and 4.7 total WAR. You read that right. Starting pitching team WAR of 2.8 in 2012.)

 

Here's why I was happy when I looked at it. This year we are back on pace to pitch more than 900 innings. The 5.93 k/9 ratio is the best since 2010. The 2.39 bb/9 ratio is the best since 2010. The staff has already accumulated 7.6 WAR, to go along with an ERA (barely) under 5. The 4.19 xFIP is better than most years, and significantly better than the last 2. And it looks like the staff is only getting stronger.

In the last 30 days, our starters have 6.35 k/9, 2.00 bb/9, 4.07 xFIP, and 1.9 WAR.

 

And reinforcements have not yet arrived!

 

When we trim the remaining fat and replace them with budding prospects, we could be getting back to the heyday of Twins pitching (see 2005 - 2007). Can't wait!

[drjim]

I'm sure I'm not alone in being frustrated with the slow rebuilding process, but as an optimist, I always look for an excuse to hope. I knew our starting staff was historically miserable last year, so I decided to compare how our staff is this year. Then I decided to go on a wild goose chase. Whoops!

 

Here is a link to the SP lines for each year since 2010 for the Twins. The first thing I noticed was how shudderingly awfur the last two years were. Our starters did not pitch 900 innings. They didn't notch 40 wins. And of course team ERA of 5.26 and 5.40 just make me sad (along with the 2.8 and 4.7 total WAR. You read that right. Starting pitching team WAR of 2.8 in 2012.)

 

Here's why I was happy when I looked at it. This year we are back on pace to pitch more than 900 innings. The 5.93 k/9 ratio is the best since 2010. The 2.39 bb/9 ratio is the best since 2010. The staff has already accumulated 7.6 WAR, to go along with an ERA (barely) under 5. The 4.19 xFIP is better than most years, and significantly better than the last 2. And it looks like the staff is only getting stronger.

In the last 30 days, our starters have 6.35 k/9, 2.00 bb/9, 4.07 xFIP, and 1.9 WAR.

 

And reinforcements have not yet arrived!

 

When we trim the remaining fat and replace them with budding prospects, we could be getting back to the heyday of Twins pitching (see 2005 - 2007). Can't wait!

 

This is the key to me. Terry Ryan has really rebuilt the depth up and down the system, should pay dividends for years.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I love goose chases such as this

[tobi0040]

This is the key to me. Terry Ryan has really rebuilt the depth up and down the system, should pay dividends for years.

 

While I am optimistic about the depth and ceiling of a few of the guys, I can't get over the fact that it is 8/5 and Meyer and May have ERA's around 3.00 with 9-10 K's per 9, very low BA against and are still in AAA.

 

I liked the Milone pickup in a vacuum. I think he is a #5 starter at least and for a 4th OF, what a steal.  But he will be the first guy up.  Meyer may not be up this year, which is frustrating with his numbers and now 7 consecutive starts at 6 IP, 0-2 ER.  May had a 4 ER performance last night, so that will be the excuse for him.  He needs to be more consistent. 

[drjim]

While I am optimistic about the depth and ceiling of a few of the guys, I can't get over the fact that it is 8/5 and Meyer and May have ERA's around 3.00 with 9-10 K's per 9, very low BA against and are still in AAA.

 

I liked the Milone pickup in a vacuum. I think he is a #5 starter at least and for a 4th OF, what a steal.  But he will be the first guy up.  Meyer may not be up this year, which is frustrating with his numbers and now 7 consecutive starts at 6 IP, 0-2 ER.  May had a 4 ER performance last night, so that will be the excuse for him.  He needs to be more consistent. 

 

I agree, but slow call ups don't have much to do with the work in building up depth throughout.

 

May should make his next start in the bigs. Meyer should get a taste in the pen.

[bird]

While I am optimistic about the depth and ceiling of a few of the guys, I can't get over the fact that it is 8/5 and Meyer and May have ERA's around 3.00 with 9-10 K's per 9, very low BA against and are still in AAA.

 

I liked the Milone pickup in a vacuum. I think he is a #5 starter at least and for a 4th OF, what a steal.  But he will be the first guy up.  Meyer may not be up this year, which is frustrating with his numbers and now 7 consecutive starts at 6 IP, 0-2 ER.  May had a 4 ER performance last night, so that will be the excuse for him.  He needs to be more consistent. 

I know the Meyer case is a source of frustration, but I think it's very feasible that, given his walk rate, he'd get eaten alive up here by the middle of the order and even struggle with the bottom of the order guys. The argument has been belabored for sure, but it feels like everybody just assumes any struggles he has will be nominal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And reinforcements have not yet arrived!

 

When we trim the remaining fat and replace them with budding prospects, we could be getting back to the heyday of Twins pitching (see 2005 - 2007). Can't wait!

Agreed.  Hughes and Gibson look like they should be legit average (or slightly better) MLB starters, which has mostly been lacking here for a few years.

 

Would be even nicer if a few reinforcements were here already, though, positioning themselves to start strong in 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

I assume Meyer will struggle, but improve with more time in the majors.....hence my desire for him to get some of the "nerve based" struggles out of the way this year.

[Boom Boom]

I know the Meyer case is a source of frustration, but I think it's very feasible that, given his walk rate, he'd get eaten alive up here by the middle of the order and even struggle with the bottom of the order guys. The argument has been belabored for sure, but it feels like everybody just assumes any struggles he has will be nominal.

 

I think at this point people just want to see the kid pitch, whether he struggles or not.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can understand some hesitation for the Twins to call up Meyer... But both May and Meyer? Nah, I'm over waiting for either of those guys to show up in Minnesota.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know the Meyer case is a source of frustration, but I think it's very feasible that, given his walk rate, he'd get eaten alive up here by the middle of the order and even struggle with the bottom of the order guys. The argument has been belabored for sure, but it feels like everybody just assumes any struggles he has will be nominal.

You mean the walk rate that's ~2 percentage points higher than Darnell, May, and Johnson?  And ~3 percentage points higher than Pino?

 

I've mentioned this to Seth a few times -- if Meyer's walk rate was any better, he might be a top 5 prospect in all of MLB.  (Don't get me wrong, that would be awesome, but it's a pretty high bar for promotion, and not at all evidence he would get "eaten alive" if he's less than that.)

[jharaldson]

I think we also need to acknowledge that an overall improvement in pitching has happened the last few years and that offense is down this year.  If you look at ranking of the Twins to other teams as opposed to the raw numbers it tells a less optimistic story.

 

Starter ERA

2014 - 28th

2013 - 30th

2012 - 29th

 

Hovering around last in Starter ERA isn't great.  Yes there are guys in the minors who may help and some peripherals are up but the end result this year is the same end result the last 2 under Terry.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hovering around last in Starter ERA isn't great.  Yes there are guys in the minors who may help and some peripherals are up but the end result this year is the same end result the last 2 under Terry.

I hear you.  But, by starter ERA, they were generally a bad outlier the past two years.  Now they're just more normal bad.  Mild progress to be sure, but some progress (which couldn't be said of the team in 2011, 2012, or 2013).

 

By starter ERA- (lower is better, adjusted for park and league) and MLB rank:

 

2014: 127 (30th rank)

2013: 132 (30th)

2012: 132 (30th)

2011: 114 (24th)

2010: 101 (16th)

 

Okay, that doesn't look good either.  But we're almost to 2011 levels by FIP- and xFIP-, though!  (Do we believe in FIP and xFIP? )

 

They were generally between 90 and 100 (above average) in ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP- for the period 2001-2010.

[TheLeviathan]

I know the Meyer case is a source of frustration, but I think it's very feasible that, given his walk rate, he'd get eaten alive up here by the middle of the order and even struggle with the bottom of the order guys. The argument has been belabored for sure, but it feels like everybody just assumes any struggles he has will be nominal.

 

And yet our offense is littered with guys that AA pitchers were fanning at alarming rates and up they came!  I just don't get that double standard.

[tobi0040]

I know the Meyer case is a source of frustration, but I think it's very feasible that, given his walk rate, he'd get eaten alive up here by the middle of the order and even struggle with the bottom of the order guys. The argument has been belabored for sure, but it feels like everybody just assumes any struggles he has will be nominal.

 

BB per 9 of 4.5 + H/9 of 7 > BB per 9 of 3.5 and H/9 of 8.     Reason being the BB is only one base and that additional hit could be a 2B, 3B, or HR.  But I guarantee you this concern and prediction that Meyer will struggle would not be happening if his BB rate was 3.5 and he was allowing 8 hits per 9.  

[tobi0040]

And yet our offense is littered with guys that AA pitchers were fanning at alarming rates and up they came!  I just don't get that double standard.

 

Your expectation of logic will be your downfall.

[zwiefz]

When discussing the starting pitching, where it is right now, and where it is going don't forget about Nolasco.  With his contract he isn't going anywhere any time soon.  I hope that his poor results this season so far really were due to his arm issues and that he will end up being the guy the Twins paid for. 

 

A rotation including some combination of  the Nolasco(the pre-2014 version), Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, and Milone with guys like Pelfrey, Berrios, Darnell, Johnson, Pino around as depth may not compete with the A's or Tigers, but would still be a pretty darn good group.

[Thegrin]

Looking only at Quality Starts.

 

Correia 12

Hughes 12

Gibson  12

Nolasco  6 ??? do u  remember 1.???

Pino        3  !!!

[iTwins]

Looking only at Quality Starts.

 

Correia 12

Hughes 12

Gibson  12

Nolasco  6 ??? do u  remember 1.???

Pino        3  !!!

 

I DO remember one of Nolasco's quality starts - the April 12th game against KC - and the ONLY reason I remember that game is because I was there. (So, that's kind of cheating, I suppose) For what it's worth, he looked absolutely dominate in that game. I was hoping it was the sign of things turning around. Not so much...

[kdrupp09]

Looking only at Quality Starts.

 

Correia 12

Hughes 12

Gibson  12

Nolasco  6 ??? do u  remember 1.???

Pino        3  !!!

 

Didn't Nolasco throw the Twins first complete game of the season?

[Mike Sixel]

Last year, there was no Hughes or Gibson....two guys you were pretty sure would be good again the following year. That is a huge improvement.

[jokin]

I assume Meyer will struggle, but improve with more time in the majors.....hence my desire for him to get some of the "nerve based" struggles out of the way this year.

 

Why is this such a hard concept to grasp?  It obviously worked for Gibson, and he is nowhere near the potential MLB pitcher that Meyer can become.

[Mike Frasier Law]

Last year, there was no Hughes or Gibson....two guys you were pretty sure would be good again the following year. That is a huge improvement.

 

Indeed! Twins starters this year have accumulated 7.6 WAR. 4.1 comes from Hughes and 2.0 comes from Gibson.

 

Put another way, those two have combined to pitch 259 innings (more than 6 per start), winning 20 games, and pitching to roughly a 4 ERA.

 

How good were our top two pitchers in the last few years you ask?

 

2013 the Twins didn't have a starter win 10 games. Correia pitched 185 innings and Pelfrey came in second at 152. Those two were our two best starters, compiling 3.6 WAR combined.

 

2012 the Twins had ACE Scott Diamond win 12 games while pitching 173 innings (good for 2.3 WAR). We had no other starting pitcher even hit 100 innings. It's hard to say who our second best pitcher was. Deduno won 6 games pitching 79 innings. Liriano pitched 92 innings, accumulating .9 WAR, but went 3-10 with a 5.34 ERA. Blackburn actually pitched the second most innings at 98 - good for a 4-9 record, 7.39 ERA and -.8 WAR.

 

2011 the Twins didn't have a 10 game winner. But we had Pavano pitch 222 innings with a 4.30 ERA and 2.7 WAR. Baker had a 3.21 ERA and 2.8 WAR, but only pitched 131 innings. Duensing pitched 156 innings, but also had a horrific ERA (5.24).

 

Having two good (as in better than average) starting pitchers doesn't make a playoff caliber team, but it's been awhile since we experienced the feeling of having two. Heck, what Correia has done this year as our 3rd best pitcher (123 IP, 4.96 ERA, 0.7 WAR) is arguably better than our #2 pitchers for the last three years.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow, 2012 was bad.

[kab21]

Meyer's promotion shouldn't be based on whether or not he is one of the best 5 starters but rather that it is the right time for him to be promoted.  He's missed time due to injury, he's being used with kid gloves (both pitch counts and innings limits), he has walk issues and he has a really high season.  He very easily could be working throwing more of X pitch to certain batters and that kind of development stops when he is promoted to the majors.  In the majors you need to use your best stuff to survive and development becomes secondary.

 

May is a different story.  He has some issues although he has answered some of them but he has spent almost 3 full seasons at AA/AAA and it's about time to find out if he will sink or swim.

[stringer bell]

Two guys have earned rotation spots for 2015. That is progress. There are several candidates for the last three spots. There has been progress.

[DocBauer]

Progress is always relative.

 

Forget disappointment and frustration for a moment, as well as bad luck, (cap tip to Nick), does anyone think that a healthy Nolasco won't be a solid part of the 2015 rotation? Maybe even...dare I say it...a good performer? Put him along with Hughes and Gibson and you have...(baited breath)...a pretty solid to good looking 1,2,3?

 

Of course, we need two more starters to finish things out. So, I guess we'll look to Diamond and Walters and.....wait....what? They're not around any longer? What?

 

You mean the Twins went out and acquired two top SP prospects who may be better than anyone on the list above, and anybody they've had in years? Wow!

 

Why aren't they up now? The Twins say they want them to develop a bit more to reach a level of consistency where they can achieve more permanent success? Ok. I'm disappointed, but I guess I understand. Can they still come up this season to gain some valuable experience? They can? They might? They probably will? AWESOME!

 

What's that? They also recently traded for a ML experienced LHSP who has a short but solid resume that could be a solid 4th or 5th starter now and next year? Cool. And say what? They also have a young 20yo kid in AA who has lightening in his arm who might be ready sometime next season? Now I'm just giddy with excitement!

 

And you say there are a couple LH's and RH's that have a chance to contribute as 5th starters or pen options, just in case someone isn't quite ready yet, but otherwise could provide insurance at AAA?

 

Oh wait, you're kidding me here right? There's actually some quality arms that may be ready to further improve and deepen the bullpen?

 

WOW! This doesn't sound like the same Twins team I knew a couple years ago.

[Willihammer]

Progress is always relative.

 

Forget disappointment and frustration for a moment, as well as bad luck, (cap tip to Nick), does anyone think that a healthy Nolasco won't be a solid part of the 2015 rotation? Maybe even...dare I say it...a good performer? Put him along with Hughes and Gibson and you have...(baited breath)...a pretty solid to good looking 1,2,3?

On the other hand, who would be surprised if Nolasco's elbow flares up again this summer and he needs to have TJS or worse, arthroscopic surgery to remove lose bodies or something. Recovery from that seems to take forever.

 

Here's a thought - after injuries to Pelfrey and Nolasco, did the Twins hang onto Correia this summer with the intent to re-sign him?

[DocBauer]

On the other hand, who would be surprised if Nolasco's elbow flares up again this summer and he needs to have TJS or worse, arthroscopic surgery to remove lose bodies or something. Recovery from that seems to take forever.

 

Here's a thought - after injuries to Pelfrey and Nolasco, did the Twins hang onto Correia this summer with the intent to re-sign him?

No.

 

All reports thus far is Nolasco is OK and just needs to stretch out.

 

But...but...if there is something missed and the worse case scenario pops up, based on things Pohlad has said recently, the open payroll, and frustration mounting, mark my words...the Twins make a major move this off season.

[kab21]

I would be a rich man if I had a dollar for every time a pitcher got TJ after going the rest and rehab route with a strained elbow.

 

It is the correct decision since it usually only delays the inevitable by a couple of months though. 

 

The Twins are certainly in a better spot pitching wise for several years.  Before this year we tried to convince ourselves that pitchers with marginal stuff (Diamond, Worley, etc...) were #3's.  This year it looks like we have 2 bonafide #3's and the prospects look better and are closer than they have ever been.