Article: Twins sign Ynoa for $800k

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/3185-Twins-sign-Ynoa-for-800k

[tobi0040]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/3185-Twins-sign-Ynoa-for-800k

 

Here is some video, although you can't see the ball to the plate. Looks like a nice sign with upside. He looks big for a 16 year old, 94 mph heater. 90-91 cutter, splitter, and a good change. 17th rated among international free agents.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/min/twins-lock-up-pitching-prospect-huascar-ynoa?ymd=20140702&content_id=82154470&vkey=news_min

 

BA has him as the 14th rated guy. flashes of brilliance and at times puzzling inconsistencies. Potential frontline starter. You take that in a 16 year old for $800K

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/07/01/twinsights-twins-still-linked-to-dominican-rhp-huascar-ynoa/

[Dman]

Glad the Twins are still going after solid pitching talent. I guess I had resigned myself to them not being able to pull this off. I am surprised they got this done considering the money other teams have. Nice to know they will get one of the top 20 guys. Well done FO.

[nicksaviking]

This is great news. He's not a top 10 international player but he's arguably the best pitcher. When the Twins said they were unlikely to sign anyone for over $1 million, I thought any top 30 kind of guys would be off the table since the Yankees proclaimed to want to blow the bank signing guys this year. I thought many teams would follow suit, I still do, but unless Ynoa's leaving money on the table, teams may not be going as crazy as advertised.

 

Edit: Upon further review of contracts, guys ranked below Ynoa are getting $1 million contracts so perhaps he did leave money on the table. Either that or Ynoa doesn't have the stature with front offices as he does with the prognosticators.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I find it normal for a 16 year old fire-balling pitcher to be inconsistent. We all were somewhat inconsistent with many phases of our lives when we are only 16 years old. But how many 16 year olds can throw a baseball at 94 mph? Plus he has a 6'7" older brother. Great signing by the Twins. Huge upside at a reasonable expense. I salute the FO.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Upon further review of contracts, guys ranked below Ynoa are getting $1 million contracts so perhaps he did leave money on the table. Either that or Ynoa doesn't have the stature with front offices as he does with the prognosticators.

 

It could be a lot of things. Maybe he reached this agreement with the Twins when the ball started rolling downhill and thought he was going to miss out on much more.

 

This was exactly the reason I thought he'd keep working to try and get a better deal. But when you start hearing that teams are spending tons of their money, you need to find a match with a team who's willing to give it.

 

Hopefully JO can take him under his wing...

[Mike Sixel]

I remain skeptical of the approach of having a lot of money, and buying quantity over quality, I guess we will know more in a few years. I have not paid attention to the international stuff this year at all, under the premise they would be praying on the top ranked guys again. Good luck to them and their new players. I hope it works.

[maxisagod]

There was a rumor a few days ago that 800,000 was his asking price after the bad outings. Some scouts felt that a team had already agree to it. So I'm guessing his trainer told the teams what they wanted, and the Twins agree to it first. Right now He's got a ceiling of a number 1 starter, 100 million dollar pitcher and a floor of a guy who never get's out of rookie ball. In a couple years, who knows what that range will be.

[righty8383]

Question for anyone able to answer. Why can't he join the DSL Twins right now? Would that mess with his minor league service time?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Just about every intl FA has a floor of never making it out of rookie ball. That's the problem with projecting those guys. I like the signing. I'm all for high ceiling guys, and I don't care if they pay 2M or 20K to get it.

[Dantes929]

"His ceiling is that of someone who could potentially be a top-of-the-rotation starter but saddling anyone at 16 with that label is irresponsible." That kind of sentence makes me chuckle. Thanks for being responsible and not labeling him a top-of-the rotation-starter by using the qualifiers "potentially and ceiling". Not singling you out Jeremy. Prospect writers want to extol the talent but then caution since only 1 in 20 (pure guess) such prospects even get to the majors. I just laugh at the double speak sometimes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Big risk but for that price it's hard not to find the signing appealing.

[twinsfan34]

'16 years old' and 'consistent'...in the same sentence? Not likely.

 

Wonderful 'lotto pick' if you will. Looking forward to a few more $500K+ signings and many of the $50K fliers.

 

I was 5'10'' 135 lbs as a 16 year old. I was 6'1'' 180 as a 17 year old. Lots can change at that age.

[tobi0040]

'16 years old' and 'consistent'...in the same sentence? Not likely.

 

Wonderful 'lotto pick' if you will. Looking forward to a few more $500K+ signings and many of the $50K fliers.

 

I was 5'10'' 135 lbs as a 16 year old. I was 6'1'' 180 as a 17 year old. Lots can change at that age.

 

It is rare to even see an 18 year old high school prospect that is consistent. Most of the time they only have a feel for 1-2 pitches, rarely a change up. Mechanics are not always repeatable, etc. If they are 18 and have 3 plus pitches they are a top 3 draft pick and get paid $4-7M. Extreme example alert....Brady Aiken was rated in the 20-30 range a year before going #1 overall (17 years old at the time). I am guessing he had some incosistency or questions about a pitch or two.

 

This kid is 16 and has good size. 94 mph sounds good, 91 mph cutter sounds good. He will likely add velocity. They think he can have a change that is an out pitch. I really like this move.

 

To many of the points made, maybe he does not make it out of A ball, but you add a guy like this every year and you will likely be rewarded at some point. Heck, Homer Bailey's numbers look like a #2 or #3 starter and he received $100M. You can sign 125 guys like this for $100M. My guess is that is a better long term investment.

[TheLeviathan]

I like it - he's the kind of profile I like them to take a risk on.

[PseudoSABR]

I remain skeptical of the approach of having a lot of money, and buying quantity over quality, I guess we will know more in a few years.

Normally, I'd agree with you, but in the international market, quality is pretty fungible--the distance for these guys from the major is immense, and rarely do prospects like Sano emerge as such obvious quality investments. Given the higher risk, it does make more sense to spread out that risk over many players rather than a few.

[Mike Sixel]

Right, I'd say I'm skeptical, but not convinced they are wrong. I'm curious how random the outcomes are, though. I don't know if we have enough data yet to know, given the likelihood that international rankings probably haven't been widely available for a super long time.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Question for anyone able to answer. Why can't he join the DSL Twins right now? Would that mess with his minor league service time?

 

These are all "Future contracts" meaning they are signed for the 2015 season, even though the Rule 5 clock starts immediately.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

"His ceiling is that of someone who could potentially be a top-of-the-rotation starter but saddling anyone at 16 with that label is irresponsible." That kind of sentence makes me chuckle. Thanks for being responsible and not labeling him a top-of-the rotation-starter by using the qualifiers "potentially and ceiling". Not singling you out Jeremy. Prospect writers want to extol the talent but then caution since only 1 in 20 (pure guess) such prospects even get to the majors. I just laugh at the double speak sometimes.

 

I'm picking up what you're putting down. People want to talk ceilings of college guys, fine. There isn't a lot of development yet in a 23 year old. High schoolers at 18 or 19 are hard.

 

Now take a kid that just turned 16. Really all you have is a fastball speed, some other pitches they might know and a dream.

[Shane Wahl]

This is a great signing. It's cheap and I laugh at "inconsistency" complaints about a 16-year-old kid! Drawing the "ire of scouts" . . . .hahahahahaha! What? At that age I was consistent about absolutely nothing except for not getting girls.

[bird]

Normally, I'd agree with you, but in the international market, quality is pretty fungible--the distance for these guys from the major is immense, and rarely do prospects like Sano emerge as such obvious quality investments. Given the higher risk, it does make more sense to spread out that risk over many players rather than a few.

 

Another fact about quality and quantity: there are 30 teams, so by definition there will be teams that don't sign a "Top 25" guy. The Twins have signed one or more such high-ceiling prospect in each of the past several years, so no one can legitimately complain that they don't get their share of "quality". The record clearly shows that they get both quality AND quantity. You might put Arcia and Santana in the "quantity" category, and Polanco and Thorpe in the "quality" category, for example.

 

Nice to see the Twins continue to be aggressive in the international market. They're getting terrific results.

[Seth Stohs]

I remain skeptical of the approach of having a lot of money, and buying quantity over quality, I guess we will know more in a few years. I have not paid attention to the international stuff this year at all, under the premise they would be praying on the top ranked guys again. Good luck to them and their new players. I hope it works.

 

Generally I agree with quality over quantity. Last night we talked on the Hangouts about that very topic. For me, in the international signing phase, I think I'd prefer quantity of decent prospects over the top guys in many cases. I say that while being thrilled that the Twins signed Miguel Sano, of course, but he was a clear exception.

 

When guys are signing at 16 and likely have arrangements when they're 14-15, it's just such a crap shoot. I think I'd rather go with 8 guys at $400,000 than 1 guy at $3.2 million... most of the time.

 

Then again, it's not like I know any of these guys or have even seen them play... and how good they'll be at 18-22 is impossible to know with any level of certainty when they are 15-16.

[amjgt]

I would imagine Clayton Kershaw would be very inconsistent too, if he was growing 1-2" per year, coursing with frame-filling testosterone, and worried about asking girls to go steady.

[bird]

Generally I agree with quality over quantity. Last night we talked on the Hangouts about that very topic. For me, in the international signing phase, I think I'd prefer quantity of decent prospects over the top guys in many cases. I say that while being thrilled that the Twins signed Miguel Sano, of course, but he was a clear exception.

 

When guys are signing at 16 and likely have arrangements when they're 14-15, it's just such a crap shoot. I think I'd rather go with 8 guys at $400,000 than 1 guy at $3.2 million... most of the time.

 

Then again, it's not like I know any of these guys or have even seen them play... and how good they'll be at 18-22 is impossible to know with any level of certainty when they are 15-16.

 

This makes total sense to me. And yet I think we should take a bit of solace from the fact that they're taking some bigger financial risks too. Sano is our poster boy, but last year Diaz Lewin was ranked #10, the year before Amaurys Minier was #7 on some lists and Argenis Silva #22, then add Thorpe as the highest-ranked Aussie pitcher, Barrie this year as the highest ranked Aussie hitter, and both were half-mil investments. Kepler at $800, Polanco at $700, so again, this feels like a nice balance between taking some serious risks to hit the jackpot and spreading some dollars out to improve the odds.

[Mike Sixel]

Btw, from what little reading I have done this year, I do like this signing. As for success with the approach, imo, it is too early to tell. Most of these guys are not even in A ball. .....for all the teams in baseball.

[ashbury]

If the ceiling is high and the consistency at age 16 is the main knock on him, this signing gets +1 from me.

[bird]

Btw, from what little reading I have done this year, I do like this signing. As for success with the approach, imo, it is too early to tell. Most of these guys are not even in A ball. .....for all the teams in baseball.

 

How would you describe their approach?

[nicksaviking]

Another fact about quality and quantity: there are 30 teams, so by definition there will be teams that don't sign a "Top 25" guy. The Twins have signed one or more such high-ceiling prospect in each of the past several years, so no one can legitimately complain that they don't get their share of "quality". The record clearly shows that they get both quality AND quantity. You might put Arcia and Santana in the "quantity" category, and Polanco and Thorpe in the "quality" category, for example.

 

Nice to see the Twins continue to be aggressive in the international market. They're getting terrific results.

 

While I'm glad the Twins haven't been totally cheap about the process and I'm very excited about Ynoa, the bonus pools are set up for the teams with the poor records the year prior to spend the most. With that in mind, the intention of the process is for the Twins to be getting a top 5 guy each of the past three years not a top 25 guy.

 

I'm not critiquing them, but they are hardly being agressive about their international targets. We already know that the Yankees, Rays, Brewers and Blue Jays are blowing past their bonus limits and the Red Sox certainly look like they will as well. Likely plenty of other teams will be doing the same. This should open the game up for the Twins to do the same next year while these teams cannont sign the big targets. If the Twins don't blow past their slot bonus next year, we probably shouldn't be as content only signing the #14 ranked prospect.

[Mike Sixel]

How would you describe their approach?

 

Throw lots of spaghetti on the wall and see what sticks vs. sign the more likely to succeed (assuming the rankings have any validity). Stay in the pool vs go over pool. Sign more less expensive guys that are lower ranked vs sign a few high ranked guys.

 

Like I said above, I am skeptical about their approach, but I don't think there is enough data to know if it will work or not. Sano would NOT be signed under this current approach, for example, since he was THE guy that year.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

Twins sign OF Jean Carlos Arias - $450,000

 

http://dplbaseball.com/scouts-corner/jean-carlos-arias-of-2014/