Article: The Rising Cost of Brian Dozier

[Otto von Ballpark]

You don't give non-elite players deals like this. The day may come to smartly buy out some FA years, but it sure as heck isn't now.

 

Depending on how you define elite. Gyorko looks promising, but I'm not sure that he's elite. Kipnis isn't a traditional "elite" guy but positionally, he sure looked elite last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kipnis is a year ahead of Dozier, service-time (although just about the same age). He got his big deal AFTER his "breakthrough" year (2013: 133 OPS+, 5.9 rWAR). That would put Dozier on track for something equivalent AFTER 2014, if 2014 proves to be his full-season breakout. Then you can also adjust the relative value based on Dozier's 2014 performance.

 

Also, Kipnis got 6/52 plus an option, or if you lop off the final year, it was 5/38. So if Dozier was to sign now, 3/4 of a season earlier than Kipnis, we'd probably get a discount compared to that, no? 5/30? Dozier should probably be at a bit of a disadvantage compared to Gyorko and Kipnis -- both of them were more highly regarded as prospects (both top 100) and haven't yet had the down stretch that was Dozier's 2012 (although Gyorko is starting slow this year), so they both might be more safely projected.

[DuluthFan]

Would someone please do the math on what he would get in his arbitration years before offering him a free agent offer. Sure 5/40 would be a good offer IF HE WAS A FREE AGENT. But he is not a free agent and won't be until 2019 when he is 31. You need to compare ARBITRATION awards for similar players, not contract extentions by teams with more revenue. The Twins have a good record in arbitration. They usually settle before the cases are heard. Let's WAIT until after Dozier submits his first arbitration offer before overpaying him needlessly.

 

Right now he is in line to make $550k-600k next year, $1-2.5M in his first year of arbitration and maybe $3-5M in his third year. In no way do these numbers approach an average $8M per year over 5 years.

 

And just so it's clear, the Twins cannot lose him until his free agent year of 2019. He is not going anywhere.

[Mike Sixel]

Ok good idea*

 

edit:

*that would have been way more fun if caps locks was not turned off

[Riverbrian]

I'd be thinking about it but I don't think I do it yet.

 

Thank Goodness that there is time to think about it.

[markos]

5/$40M feels like way too much, but I'm not sure I have a good idea of what his arbitration baseline is. Chris Johnson received $2.3M his first year, and he hadn't performed like Dozier has the past year. I bet Dozier makes at least $3M his first year and maybe $15M-$20M overall. Of course, if he keeps playing out of his mind the next two seasons (say, flirts with 30-30 seasons, makes an all-star team or two, wins a gold glove), then it is quite possible that his first arbitration year will end up at $5M or more. Dan Uggla got almost $6M his first year, and that was back in 2009. At that point his arbitration baseline is probably closer to $30M total.

 

If I were to offer a contract, this is how it would be structured:

4 years, $18M guaranteed (basically locks in arbitration value for a good but not great player)

Team options for years 5 ($12M) and 6 ($15) (two free agent years)

Total value: 6 years, $45M

 

Twins get cost certainty for the next four seasons, as well as the option to keep him around for his age-31 and age-32 seasons.

Dozier avoids risk of injury or becoming bad.

 

Unfortunately, Gyorko already signed for more than this, and Dozier is a better player (so far). I'm not he would take this offer.

[Jerr]

Free agent in 2019 no reason to be in a hurry.

 

Exactly!!!

I thought baseball fans are usually patient fans:p

[Jerr]

Would someone please do the math on what he would get in his arbitration years before offering him a free agent offer. Sure 5/40 would be a good offer IF HE WAS A FREE AGENT. But he is not a free agent and won't be until 2019 when he is 31. You need to compare ARBITRATION awards for similar players, not contract extentions by teams with more revenue. The Twins have a good record in arbitration. They usually settle before the cases are heard. Let's WAIT until after Dozier submits his first arbitration offer before overpaying him needlessly.

 

Right now he is in line to make $550k-600k next year, $1-2.5M in his first year of arbitration and maybe $3-5M in his third year. In no way do these numbers approach an average $8M per year over 5 years.

 

And just so it's clear, the Twins cannot lose him until his free agent year of 2019. He is not going anywhere.

 

Very good, end of agrument!!!!

[Thrylos]

Dozier is neither Gyorko (career .321/.386/.530 in the minors, twice in top 100 prospects) nor Kipnis (career .297/.378/.486 in the minors, once in top 100 prospects, All Star in the majors, career 118 OPS+ in the majors.) Those guys are more similar to Longoria than they are to Dozier (career .298/.370/.409 in the minors, career 94 OPS+ in the majors.)

 

If the Twins are smart, they will look into their talent pipeline in middle infield (Rosario & Polanco mainly who are like the 2 guys mentioned, plus Goodrum possibly) and sell really high on Dozier. But that is not the "Twins' way".

.

[jorgenswest]

Allowing him to go to arbitration and the Twins risk he performs at an all star level and earns a large salary.

 

Sign him long term and the Twins risk making a long term commitment to a middling or worse 2B.

 

The Twins can afford to risk he will step up to all star level. They are a mid market team. A small market team might need to the cost control.

 

The Twins can't afford to make more long term commitments to players to players without near certainty that they will be among the better players at their position.

 

They need to act like a midmarket team. Let him earn his big dollars in arbitration and happily pay for top performance.

[kab21]

"There's something to be said about taking care of your young players for improving clubhouse morale. It's really not that much money and it could end up saving the Twins some (a lot of money) in the long run." There is also something to be said about keeping a player hungry. I didn't like the Span or Blackburn or Harris or Lamb deals. I am generally a mid to long term guy but we have him already for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Buying him out now for what you probably would pay him anyway seems like needless risk. Buyouts can happen anytime. Players agree to longer term in their arb years because of injury risk and a guaranteed big payday. No real need or benefit to it now. Yes, the twins have a ton of money. If things go the way we want them to we will also have a good core of guys who will eventually be using it up. No need to be reckless with it and tie it up now. I have always liked Dozier and hope his OBP rate continues the upward trend. He is a nice piece of the puzzle but you can still hedge your bet next year or the year after.

 

How on Earth is this comparable to the Harris or Lamb deals?

 

How can you not like the Span deal? That extra year on the contract and the cost certainty played a big factor in getting a top pitching prospect in the trade.

 

The Blackburn contract was a little silly from the get go. He wasn't going to get any better than his two best seasons. Dozier is looking like an occasional all-star at the very least.

 

The closer a player gets to FA and the more that player wants for buying out FA years.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins contract with Span ran through his age 30 season. Dozier can't become a free agent until his age 32 season. If he earns it, pay the arbitration cost and trade at age 30. Let somebody else pay for the decline.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins contract with Span ran through his age 30 season. Dozier can't become a free agent until his age 32 season. If he earns it, pay the arbitration cost and trade at age 30. Let somebody else pay for the decline.

 

Combine this post with all those people saying they should keep players down for another year of control, and my irony detector is smoking hot.....

[DJL44]

The only reason the Twins would offer a contract buying out arbitration is to get a relatively cheap option year when Dozier is 32. That discussion can wait until the offseason.

[amjgt]

People keep talking about "the decline" like it is like paying taxes.

 

On average, over the course of baseball history, people begin to decline around 31. But there's no reason an individuals decline can't start at 34... or 28.... or 31.

 

31 is a predictive age.

 

It would be interesting to get a little more granular with analysis of "the decline" to look at different body types and positions played.

 

Dozier strikes me as someone who has the body to, and position to, not decline until later in his 30s.

[jorgenswest]

A search of aging curves will certainly lead to articles about how second baseman decline earlier.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/4464_6.gif

 

Additionally Dozier was a rookie at an older age. Those players tend to decline earlier. A third factor working against him is that some of the aging curve studies are based on the steroid era data. Recent students show that the aging curves may be changing and players are entering decline at an earlier age.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/

 

There is lots of work in this area. I hope the Twins are paying attention. Decisions like extending Jared Burton into his 33 year old season when they had his age 32 season under team control or extending Ryan Doumit through his age 33 season may have been avoided.

[howeda7]

The Twins contract with Span ran through his age 30 season. Dozier can't become a free agent until his age 32 season. If he earns it, pay the arbitration cost and trade at age 30. Let somebody else pay for the decline.

 

Decline at 32? Come on. He's a 2B and speed isn't in his primary asset. I'm fine buying out is arbitration years and 2 FA years.

[Guest USAFChief]

A search of aging curves will certainly lead to articles about how second baseman decline earlier.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/4464_6.gif

 

Additionally Dozier was a rookie at an older age. Those players tend to decline earlier. A third factor working against him is that some of the aging curve studies are based on the steroid era data. Recent students show that the aging curves may be changing and players are entering decline at an earlier age.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/

 

There is lots of work in this area. I hope the Twins are paying attention. Decisions like extending Jared Burton into his 33 year old season when they had his age 32 season under team control or extending Ryan Doumit through his age 33 season may have been avoided.

Aging curves are interesting trivia, but useless in building baseball teams, IMO. Players are individuals, and lumping them all together in an attempt to learn something about any one individual will lead to as many mistakes as it does successes.

Lumping too much data together leads you to believe a person with one foot in a freezer and one in boiling water should be pretty comfortable, temperature wise.

[drivlikejehu]

Dozier will most likely never be better than he is right now. It is extremely unlikely he will be this good at age 32. Willful ignorance of trends involving thousands of players won't help turn around the organization.

[jorgenswest]

Aging curves are interesting trivia, but useless in building baseball teams, IMO.

 

How should teams project a 27 year olds performance and value at age 32 knowing that the historical data on aging is useless and shouldn't be a consideration?

[Guest USAFChief]

How should teams project a 27 year olds performance and value at age 32 knowing that the historical data on aging is useless and shouldn't be a consideration?

I think they should look at each player as an individual, taking into account injury history (particularly chronic injuries), performance curve, work ethic, body type, coachability, and likely a dozen other things that I wouldn't think of, and make informed guesses, rather than applying averages.

 

I wouldn't ever bet on a player still performing like a 30 year old when he's 40. But betting on a good player in his mid to late 20's still being a good major leaguer into his early to mid 30's isn't inherently a bad idea. It depends on the player, and if you're careful about it, it will probably work out at a higher rate than betting on a 20 year old in your minor leagues to be a good major leaguer by the time he's in his mid 20's.

[jorgenswest]

This data is also likely useless. With the help of Baseball Reference's play index I used the seasons 1998-2008 and found 15 players who played 2B as a 27 year old and had a WAR of at least 2 and compared it with their WAR at 32.

 

[TABLE]

Player

WAR 27

WAR 32

Chase Utley

7.3

3.8

Brian Roberts

7.2

1.2

Alfonso Soriano

5.4

2

Jose Vidro

5.3

1.4

Placido Polanco

4.6

4.4

Luis Castillo

4.4

-0.4

Marcus Giles

3.9

DNP

Junior Spivey

3.9

DNP

Quilvio Veras

3.6

DNP

Orlando Hudson

3.5

2.8

Adam Kennedy

3.5

2.5

Brandon Phillips

3

1.7

Marlon Anderson

2.9

1.4

Ray Durham

2.5

2.5

Craig Counsell

2

-0.8

[/TABLE]

 

Edit-noticed Dan Uggla was missing. He was 1.8 at 27 and 2.9 at 32. Ben Zobrist was a SS at 27 but was a 4.8 WAR at 32.

[drivlikejehu]

Brutal. Nicely done.

[jokin]

Brutal. Nicely done.

 

And it gets worse.....Kelly Johnson isn't an exact comparison on the 27-32 scale, but offers fuel to the fire, as he has a similar enough progression to also make one wary of long-term extensions at the position when factoring in age relative to physical peaks for a MI. [Note that Dozier also debuted at age 25 (with of course, less initial success)]:

 

2000 (age 18) First round pick of Atlanta Braves

2007 (age 25) Rookie year. OPS+ 116 WAR 3.7

2010 (age 28) Peak/career year. OPS+ 127 WAR 4.2

 

So...Johnson peaked in his 4th year. Since then? Hasn't been above 1.8 WAR.....power and OBP numbers have declined significantly.....and physically at age 32, he can no longer play 2nd full-time despite slightly positive dWAR for his career.

[stringer bell]

Dozier is officially a year older today. Happy birthday to the Twins' future All-Star.

[amjgt]

Great... we can expect a 0-5 night from him. This decline is brutal.

[amjgt]

This data is also likely useless. With the help of Baseball Reference's play index I used the seasons 1998-2008 and found 15 players who played 2B as a 27 year old and had a WAR of at least 2 and compared it with their WAR at 32.

 

[TABLE]

Player

WAR 27

WAR 32

Chase Utley

7.3

3.8

Brian Roberts

7.2

1.2

Alfonso Soriano

5.4

2

Jose Vidro

5.3

1.4

Placido Polanco

4.6

4.4

Luis Castillo

4.4

-0.4

Marcus Giles

3.9

DNP

Junior Spivey

3.9

DNP

Quilvio Veras

3.6

DNP

Orlando Hudson

3.5

2.8

Adam Kennedy

3.5

2.5

Brandon Phillips

3

1.7

Marlon Anderson

2.9

1.4

Ray Durham

2.5

2.5

Craig Counsell

2

-0.8

[/TABLE]

 

Edit-noticed Dan Uggla was missing. He was 1.8 at 27 and 2.9 at 32. Ben Zobrist was a SS at 27 but was a 4.8 WAR at 32.

 

An interesting counter-exercise would be to generate a list of WAR32 > 2.0 and see what their WAR27 was. It wasn't totally clear if that is what your edit was implying.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dozier will most likely never be better than he is right now. It is extremely unlikely he will be this good at age 32. Willful ignorance of trends involving thousands of players won't help turn around the organization.

 

I agree that he probably won't be this good at age 32 but many people said Dozier wouldn't be better than he was last season, too.

[drivlikejehu]

I agree that he probably won't be this good at age 32 but many people said Dozier wouldn't be better than he was last season, too.

 

So what? Why does this matter at all? Dozier either is, or is not, likely to be worth big bucks at age 32+. The correct answer is not likely. Possible, but not likely, and not worth tens of millions of dollars that could go elsewhere.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So what? Why does this matter at all? Dozier either is, or is not, likely to be worth big bucks at age 32+. The correct answer is not likely. Possible, but not likely, and not worth tens of millions of dollars that could go elsewhere.

 

My point is that you don't write off a player five years ahead of time. I don't believe it's in the team's best interests to sign him to an extension right now but I'm not writing off the possibility of doing it, either. Dozier is showing the kind of discipline and power that doesn't typically evaporate once a player reaches 30. If he continues to hit for the next 12-14 months, extending him might not be a bad idea.