Time to sign Stephen Drew

[Othercousin 324]

So much talk about Pedro's fielding justifying his putrid hitting. Here's what I decided to do: each game, I decide if what Pedro did in the field offset what he did it the plate. Today the answer was no. He was hitless in risp situations; he did nothing in the field to offset this.

[Guest USAFChief]

The offense is not "just fine" no matter how many runs they put up the first week of the season, if you ask me. And the downgrade defensively WOULD be minimal, if at all.

[Joe A. Preusser]

It's not a knee jerk reaction. Going into the season, Florimon had south of a 5% chance of posting an acceptable OPS. The fact that he's not doing it is the opposite of shocking.

 

Imagine the (quite valid) consternation over Suzuki put toward someone even more deserving.

 

The knee jerk part was in relation to the season only being 6 games old. Ask yourselves this:

If Drew were under contract with another team, would you trade Ryan Eades for him? I'm not sure i would, but i'm also not sure i wouldn't.

[Mr. Brooks]

The knee jerk part was in relation to the season only being 6 games old. Ask yourselves this:

If Drew were under contract with another team, would you trade Ryan Eades for him? I'm not sure i would, but i'm also not sure i wouldn't.

 

I would think that would be a no brainer.

Where on our prospect spectrum do you consider Eades vs. Sulburan? I'd think most people have them fairly close.

Eades a little bit higher perhaps, but consider that we got Sulburan for Drew Butera.

A non top 100 prospect by himself doesn't get you very much on the trade market.

[stringer bell]

I've never been on the bandwagon to sign Drew and I think the other 29 teams' inaction shows that there is a lot of skepticism about Drew, at least at the price that Boras has held out for. Florimon remains the best defender in the system at one of the top three most crucial defensive positions. His offense was bad last year and has been abysmal so far in five games, but that is way too short a time to give up on him for good. A month from now, perhaps, but not now. I would still rather see a young guy than a 30+ SS with a long injury history.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The knee jerk part was in relation to the season only being 6 games old. Ask yourselves this:

If Drew were under contract with another team, would you trade Ryan Eades for him? I'm not sure i would, but i'm also not sure i wouldn't.

 

I'd probably trade Eades.

 

Eh, I'd almost certainly trade Eades.

[jorgenswest]

The unknown is how much Florimon's good defense saves runs. Is it one run every 10 games? Every 4 games? We know it is something.

 

ZIPS projects Drew for 49 RC+ in 458 PA. The Florimon update has 40 in 502 PA. I think that makes a difference of about 1 run every 9 games.

 

Other projections favor Drew more so maybe it is 1 in 6 games. It is hard to imagine Florimon's defense saves 1 run in 6 games over Drew, but it is something.

 

It won't be too many years before the value of defense on saving runs will be better quantified. Until then it is hard to appreciate a very good defensive player batting in the 9 hole.

[Reider]

Well if you want to wait a couple of months to evaluate his bat, that is fine I guess, (though I'm not sure what else he has left to show you), however bear in mind that at that point Drew is no longer an option.

If they target Drew it would have to be soon, because the closer it gets to the draft, the harder it will be to sign him.

That's fair. I understand that. And if the Twins want to go that route in the near future, that's fine. However, I'm just not pro Drew as much as some people are. I don't feel that the Twins need to be in a panic to go get him. However, I do think that it's a good idea to keep close tabs on his situation and other (possible trade?) options though, and make a change if/when necessary. And obviously I feel that 6 games into the season is too early to make a change @ SS.

[Reider]

Honest question. Where and why do you expect Florimon to improve?

 

He's good defensively, not going to improve much there.

This is where we are going to have to agree to disagree. Would you agree that he got off to a slow start defensively last year? This year he seems to be solid right out of the gate. I believe his ceiling is #2 defensively if he has less mental errors than last season. He absolutely has the tools to be that kind of SS for us. In addition, him and Dozier have really good chemistry in the middle infield. They are only going to build upon that the more they play together.

 

He's bad offensively and has been his entire career. He actually was a WORSE hitter as 2013 progressed. He's 27 years old.

 

What improvement does anyone see in him as a player?

I am not expecting Florimon to turn into a Josh Willingham and crush 35hr's.

I am not expecting Florimon to turn into a Joe Mauer type hitter and hit +.300 every year

And I am certainly not expecting Florimon to turn into an RBI machine like Colabello.

 

What I am hoping for Florimon is that he can be a scrappier hitter, a tougher out. I am hoping he can strike out less, put more balls in play, and even take pitchers into deeper counts.

 

Trust me, if I didn't think so highly of Florimon's defensive skill set, I wouldn't be in favor of giving him more time to work on his hitting. If he was out there fumbling around like Nishioka, I would be screaming for his replacement like some around here already are, 6 games into the season. I honestly think it's wise for the Twins to give him some time to work on his hitting. Maybe it'll work out, maybe it won't. In the meantime the Twins should be turning over every stone possible in case he doesn't show any progression this year.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I'd probably trade Eades.

 

Eh, I'd almost certainly trade Eades.

 

Im trying, but i just cant find a way to disagree with that.

[Guest USAFChief]

I would have loved for the Twins to sign Drew over the winter, but also think their opportunity to do so is probably lost. By January, it was obvious to him and everyone else the draft pick was holding his options down, and he could most likely have been had for a reasonable price just to get a three year deal. Now, He's two months away from being able to sign with any team without that team losing a draft pick, at which point the Twins are not going to be able to sign him.

 

I hate to say it, but to me it looks like an opportunity gone.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm with USACHIEF.....it is likely not to happen now, but it should have happened in the offseason.

 

I'm torn.....

Pro:

They have the money, and it won't be spent better next year (go look at the list of FA)

They have the need, and not much likely in AAA that will be as good

 

Con:

It won't matter, they are still going to lose 85+ games

It costs a pick, even though that player is likely to produce less career WAR than Drew is for the next three years

 

So, ya, I won't be upset either way now. They had a window to spend money and make the team better, and they choose to add $2-3MM in costs, while adding $25MM in revenue, with Willingham and KC coming off the books next year......and that window is closed for this year. So, whatever on FAs at this point.

[Trevor0333]

While I think both Drew's offense & defense are slightly overrated, he is still a massive upgrade over Florimon & Santana is likely atleast 2 years away & Ploanco/Goodrum likely 3 makin g a 2-3 year deal fairly optimal.

 

At this point though, I think a better plan of attack would be to let Escobar be the full time SS until May & evaluate how much of an upgrade Drew would be over Escobar. If Escobar is no better than Florimon then make the move on Drew after the draft.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Why sign him?

It will give us a couple more wins and be more fun to watch. Not worth the money or the draft pick after watching this team for a couple weeks. If we are signing him for a few years, I may reconsider my opinion.

[nicksaviking]

A player signed after the start of the season won't be eligible for compensation.

 

Not to mention the Twins are not carefree enough with their money to give him a $15 million QO next year. He wasn't worth it this year clearly, why would he be worth it next year?

 

He's a stopgap, not a solution. Save the pick unless he can pitch. This team's going nowhere with or without a SS who can hit at Fenway but nowhere else.

[twinsfan34]

1. I think if a 'big team' wanted to sign Drew, it'd be done now. What's $12M vs $14M vs $16M if you're 'a big team'...nothing and the winning teams - draft pick compensation isn't that much of a big deal.

 

2. Signing Drew has to be for 2 years to get compensation AND we have to offer him the $14M+ for his age 34 season, of which, he'd likely gladly sign, and him not take it and someone else sign him 3 years younger than he is now for the same scenario he is in now. AKA...compensation is NOT happening after the fact for any team in signing Stephen Drew deal.

 

3. There's no reason to assume Drew would get more from a team after the June Draft pick deadline than now. SABR studies will tell you the obvious, a win is a win, whether it's in April or August. If "big teams" think Drew will provide some wins now, he'd be signed.

 

4. Twins are not a contender. He would not fix the eye-sore that is our current shortstop situation. Is he better sure, but he's not coming to the Twins for a 1 year or 2 year deal, unless that's the absolute last deal on the table. His camp is hoping for an injury from the contenders or big clubs, much like the Tigers experienced - but they were more than willing to try fliers on the "Nunez's" of MLB and AAA than pay Stephen Drew.

 

5. Hope Santana can play some defense...that's where we're at. And perhaps Polanco getting a cup of coffee at the end of the year...he's already on the 40-man roster.

[PopRiveter]

Bleeeeccchh. Drew is a solid grade C player at the end of his prime.

Bat? OK. Career OPS =.764

Glove? I only know what I've read. Words like "average, solid, unspectacular."

 

There just isn't enough bat (or youth) there to be worth giving up defense or playing time (that can serve as an audition for a younger player.)

 

I'd rather watch Florimon field the position at grade A level and bat just .221 with 9 HR than watch Drew field it at a C level while hitting .253 with 13 HR while being paid so much that management won't remove him from the position when someone on the rise outplays him.

 

Are we seriously pining for Stephen Drew? Look at his bbref similarity scores list. Try to overcome the bright glare of stars like Pat Meares and Yuniesky Betancourt.

[Mr. Brooks]

Bleeeeccchh. Drew is a solid grade C player at the end of his prime.

Bat? OK. Career OPS =.764

Glove? I only know what I've read. Words like "average, solid, unspectacular."

 

There just isn't enough bat (or youth) there to be worth giving up defense or playing time (that can serve as an audition for a younger player.)

 

I'd rather watch Florimon field the position at grade A level and bat just .221 with 9 HR than watch Drew field it at a C level while hitting .253 with 13 HR while being paid so much that management won't remove him from the position when someone on the rise outplays him.

 

Are we seriously pining for Stephen Drew? Look at his bbref similarity scores list. Try to overcome the bright glare of stars like Pat Meares and Yuniesky Betancourt.

 

I took your advice and looked at the similarity scores on bbref.

I found it convenient that you chose those two names, while leaving out the names that he's actually MORE similar to, including Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and by age, JJ Hardy and Ian Desmond.

[jokin]

I took your advice and looked at the similarity scores on bbref.

I found it convenient that you chose those two names, while leaving out the names that he's actually MORE similar to, including Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and by age, JJ Hardy and Ian Desmond.

 

Spot on, Mr B. If we're going to do comps to preclude someone from consideration, comprehensive comps are mandatory or an advocate is just misleading in his arguments.

 

Plus, Drew also has huge unrealized value as a rare LHB MI with a huge advantage against righties to pair in a platoon with. Platooning options should extend his productive career well into his 30s.

[Guest USAFChief]

Bleeeeccchh. Drew is a solid grade C player at the end of his prime.

Bat? OK. Career OPS =.764

Glove? I only know what I've read. Words like "average, solid, unspectacular."

 

There just isn't enough bat (or youth) there to be worth giving up defense or playing time (that can serve as an audition for a younger player.)

 

I'd rather watch Florimon field the position at grade A level and bat just .221 with 9 HR than watch Drew field it at a C level while hitting .253 with 13 HR while being paid so much that management won't remove him from the position when someone on the rise outplays him.

 

Are we seriously pining for Stephen Drew? Look at his bbref similarity scores list. Try to overcome the bright glare of stars like Pat Meares and Yuniesky Betancourt.

I think you are possibly underestimating the difference between Drew (.764) and Florimon (.588) offensively.

 

That's roughly twice the difference between Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel.

[howeda7]

SS has been a black hole since 2007 with the exception of the Hardy year and they've done nothing to fix it. I don't give a flying $%^ about the money and I'm tired of hearing about the draft pick. If he'll still sign here for more than one year, do it.

[oldguy10]

howeda7 - Do you mean to say Eduardo Nunez is nothing, please advise.

[stringer bell]

SS wasn't a strength for the Hardy year either. JJ only played 101 games, with 6 homers and a 96 OPS+. Certainly not a powerhouse. Too bad they didn't hold on to him another year, maybe it would have clicked here. Given their luck since 2010, probably not.

[nicksaviking]

Spot on, Mr B. If we're going to do comps to preclude someone from consideration, comprehensive comps are mandatory or an advocate is just misleading in his arguments.

 

Plus, Drew also has huge unrealized value as a rare LHB MI with a huge advantage against righties to pair in a platoon with. Platooning options should extend his productive career well into his 30s.

 

I have a hard time seeing Ryan and company willing to pay $12 million over multiple years for a guy they know has to platoon to be effective.

[Linus]

Everybody is assuming that, if the Twins call, Drew will sign. In my opinion, anybody willing to wait out the market this long isn't looking to go to a last place club. If he is willing to sign, a one year deal does the Twins no good. Its got to be 2-3 or nothing.

[Trevor0333]

No one is paying him 12 mill. I'm sure the Twins are interested in the 5-7 mill range.

 

They have the $ but highest I would go is a 3 year 3/24. If he doesn't take it go with Escobar until a trade candidate comes available.

[jokin]

I have a hard time seeing Ryan and company willing to pay $12 million over multiple years for a guy they know has to platoon to be effective.

 

They won't pay him regardless, but Drew is on the "good side" of the platoon. If they could get a RHB cheaply that also excels similarly against LHP, it would be well worth the extra expense as you'd have the highest production from SS in baseball. (Not counting Colorado which had an OPS of .862 in their mile high air, the next highest OPS was Wash. with .788, 3rd was the Red Sox and Drew, with .765- Drew has a career .795 OPS vs RHP).

[nicksaviking]

They won't pay him regardless, but Drew is on the "good side" of the platoon. If they could get a RHB cheaply that also excels similarly against LHP, it would be well worth the extra expense as you'd have the highest production from SS in baseball. (Not counting Colorado which had an OPS of .862 in their mile high air, the next highest OPS was Wash. with .788, 3rd was the Red Sox and Drew, with .765- Drew has a career .795 OPS vs RHP).

 

I don't think his career OPS is how we should be evaluating Drew at this point though, he's clearly not the same player he was five years ago. Last year his OPS away from Fenway was .687 and the year before it was .657.

 

It's an upgrade, but not enough of one to make much of a difference.

[Guest USAFChief]

I have a hard time seeing Ryan and company willing to pay $12 million over multiple years for a guy they know has to platoon to be effective.

He doesnt have to platoon to be effective. Particularly compared to current options. He doesnt hit as well against same side pitching. Big deal. You can say the same about roughly 98 percent of MLB hitters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think his career OPS is how we should be evaluating Drew at this point though, he's clearly not the same player he was five years ago. Last year his OPS away from Fenway was .687 and the year before it was .657.

 

How is the predictive power of home/road splits working out for Phil Hughes? (I know, it's very early in the season, just had to say it)