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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    I don't think any of these guys are the next Ober. Ober had supreme command for a minor leaguer, and it's translated to very good command in his first MLB stint. It's also why he has a chance to be very, very good going forward, because "very good" command is going to return to "great." That's just not going to happen with others.
  2. twinstalker
    You never judge a trade on its results, but you can always ask how it worked out. Maeda pitched a quality 9 weeks, not a whole season in 2020 (well, whatever). This trade is still tbd as to which team got the best out of it. Graterol had his TJS already, so that's no small thing, and it will help him become much more valuable than Maeda, I believe. Maeda's been good for 9 weeks plus a few this year. Graterol should catch up to that and surpass it.
  3. twinstalker
    The Twins are horribly thin. I doubt any of those players is the #1. It likely will be someone even the Twins org doesn't expect. Perhaps Emmanuel Rodriguez. It's clear the new Twins regime has some pitching development prowess. I'm not seeing it with hitting. They got Miranda to stop chasing, so that's good, but I don't see them doing a great scouting job or development job on their hitters from rookie leagues to MLB, even adjusted for tough hitting parks in A ball.
  4. twinstalker
    This is always such a great compilation. Thank you.
  5. twinstalker
    If you think Duran is not going to need TJS (Canterino, too), you're fooling yourself just like the Twins are. How many years are they going to waste "rehabbing?" These guys have it now, they can be pitching in the instructionals next fall. Put it off until you see he can't pitch next year, and you lose 2023 as well.
  6. twinstalker
    thanks for this
  7. twinstalker
    Canterino could be two months into his recovery from TJS.
  8. twinstalker
    Thanks. I do want to point out that the convention for a slash line is avg/obp/slg, not ops in that last slot. I thought Morales was slugging .822. Besides that, OPS is a meaningless number. Adding two fractions that have different units means nothing.
  9. twinstalker
    Pick one: Chase Petty or Josh Winder. Not one reasonable, objective person would pick Petty. Maybe in a couple years if everything goes great for Petty after he plays his first year of full-season ball, sure. Right now he throws hard.
  10. twinstalker
    Ober has 4/5 stuff and could be 1/2 in a rotation. Kyle Hendricks and Greg Maddux outpitched their "stuff," and it was due to great command and changing speeds effectively. Ober has these traits, along with another these two guys prominently have: composure. I can't think of another Twins prospect over the years who fits this description. Maybe Radke. I think Ober is Radke good if the arm holds up. A big if, of course. Barnes is nothing...he may eat some innings. Jax is sort of interesting, though. I haven't really formed an opinion on him. I certainly didn't think much of him until recently. Reviewing his stats, it does appear he learns well and adjusts to his competition. I suppose it's possible he could spend years in the 4/5 spot and turn into what Pineda has turned into, though from very different origins.
  11. twinstalker
    LOL at Miller being 15 and Strotman being 14. Strotman has never shown much, but Miller hasn't shown the slightest, and he was generally ranked pretty low for where the Twins took him. I wouldn't even put Chase Petty this high, not that he has any better resume.
  12. twinstalker
    Listing a high school pitcher is pretty funny. I can virtually guarantee they will not go that direction two years in a row.
  13. twinstalker
    Maybe, but he was not projected for much power when he was considered the 2nd best prospect in the draft.
  14. twinstalker
    I'm very bullish on Ober. Command is everything, he's got it. Plus the deception. So, a five inning playoff start down the road is something I look forward to.
  15. twinstalker
    The farm system isn't as great as you'd think. Not if you're rating Sabato highly, counting on pitchers with injury issues, and willing to put the 26th pick in the top six and the 36th pick in the top twelve.
  16. twinstalker
    I highly doubt that his ERA is playing into Toronto's evaluation of him. It might play into public perception, as it did with you, thinking Toronto's soured on him because of it.
  17. twinstalker
    I think this farm system is severely overrated. Very little hitting brought in by Falvey, and he's done a great job of dismissing some Ryan guys. As much as I screamed for better analytics, I'm worried the scouting has been lacking since the purge. Hard to get excited about guys who will never play MLB (except for a sip of coffee, maybe).
  18. twinstalker
    Great trade. Who'd we get?
  19. twinstalker
    I know this is a bit of a dream, but the Twins should be locking their sights on CJ Abrams first, Noelvi Marte second. While they need close pitching, they need a strong shortstop who can really hit even more (especially since "pitching prospects" is a bit of an oxymoron). I don't think Royce Lewis is the former, and there's a chance he's not the latter. Unfortunately, he's probably our CF going forward. I am absolutely sure neither the Padres nor Mariners plan to give up their prized shortstop prospect, but I would demand it. Berrios can pitch here next year, if it doesn't work.
  20. twinstalker
    They would have been a playoff team with Santana. They lost game 163 to miss the playoffs. I'm sure he would have gotten them one extra win somewhere. The timing of the Santana trade was bad, I thought at the time. Prior to 2007 when rumors had started circulating I thought was the best time, then at the trade deadline that year. Trading a star pitcher with only one year to go is going to bring minimum return, even less than waiting until the trade deadline in 2008. Teams didn't have the urgency and only had him for one season. We will be disappointed if the Twins trade Berrios for any of the offers they had for Santana (disregarding eventual outcomes like Lester). But if they don't trade him today, they will be looking at similar scenarios.
  21. twinstalker
    I think the trades so far are indications the Twins want far more than teams are willing to give. If the Twins ask the Yankees for Peraza+ for Kepler, why would they do that when they can give up nothing for Gallo? You better have an excellent scouting/analytic group if you're sellers these days, and I suspect the Twins have neither. Their analytics team is seemingly duped by the fallacy of correlation.
  22. twinstalker
    Larnach's k rate is a bit troubling and caps his production. Comparing the seasons of these two guys to other prospects 3 and 4 years younger than them seems careless. Larnach isn't close to the names mentioned. Kirilloff should keep pace with them once his wrist gets fixed.
  23. twinstalker
    This might be Noah Miller this year. That was my impression when they made the pick.
  24. twinstalker
    You have an incredibly optimistic viewpoint. First, there are a lot of high upside arms in the Twins system. Guys who've already shown they can progress through the system. I wouldn't put a guy whose resume is "big high school arm" anywhere near them. And Noah Miller is the 36th player taken, seemingly a reach. He ranked about where the Twins 2nd rounder did last year, and you can probably expect him to be placed about the same spot in Twins rankings. Dig into where Owen Miller ranked on the Cleveland farm system his first couple of years. That's what we're talking. Overall, I'm not thrilled with the night, but of course if they happened to pick a stud pitcher, that's great. Miller's ceiling is low, so you really, really hope for a Tyler Freeman type, but that seems unlikely. The problem, as I see it, is big HS arms are like the kids who are the kings and queens of their high school. It doesn't take long to realize that it's probably the best they're ever going to be. Meanwhile, the not so popular kids go to college, their arms get stronger, and they understand maybe what it's like to fail so that they've learned to grow from it. And they're the one who become successful adults. Chase Petty is to me the ultimate lottery ticket in that I really don't expect it to work out. I'm not even sure what the upside is. It's not like he'll be throwing 100 mph in the big leagues if he's a starter. I suspect the Twins like his slider. It's awfully early to like someone's slider, especially if control/command is lacking. It would seem this is a young Fernando Romero. Well, that's about as devil's advocate as I can be. ?
  25. twinstalker
    As opposed to all the Twins college picks who take 4-5 years.
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