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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    Who could have foreseen this? Certainly not Falvey! And which struggling team would give anything at all of value for CES? I've got to believe those teams are more excited about any average players under their control. And how in the world could the Twins even use someone like Steer? It would be impossible to come up with a scenario where the Twins would need him. Clearly, the trade was a force majeure, and nothing could changed this outcome. Boy, are we cursed. Gee.
  2. twinstalker
    Severino is not young for his level (for a real prospect), and his strikeout rate is absurd. Unless you walk and hit for excess power like Matt Wallner, you don't stand a chance with a 30% k rate, much less YS's 40% k rate. Nobody is going to steal him from the Twins, especially since he's not great in the field. This is truly the most nothing Twins system I've ever seen. Cossetti is the same age as Severino and two levels lower. He may have put up the best numbers for the level he's at, but he's three years older than you'd want a prospect to be there, so his numbers don't mean squat until he moves up at least two levels. I doubt he's as good as Severino when that happens. There's a real chance that when Varland, SWR, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner graduate from rookie status this year, it will objectively be the worst system in baseball for prospects They'll have Lee, who projects as a regular, K-prone EmRod who has a chance, and then some guys in the Florida Complex League or lower, i.e., lottery tickets.
  3. twinstalker
    We sit here and pray and pray for Kepler to hit well so he has some trade value. Then when he does, we're afraid to trade him.
  4. twinstalker
    I could be wrong, but I've never seen a lefty throwing infielder, which you list Jacob Gonzalez as.
  5. twinstalker
    Oof. This was an ugly week for so many. I think it could be the case that the Twins have very few real prospects.
  6. twinstalker
    I wonder what we'd have given him if he'd pitched like he did in his first four starts last year.
  7. twinstalker
    You win because I was joking. I'd love to be wrong about him (me: "upside is utility infielder bat").
  8. twinstalker
    Mostly taking your word for it on the velocity drop. Lots of variables at play that might not be adjusted for and can truly influence a small sample size with correlated basic outcomes.
  9. twinstalker
    I've always been Noah Miller's biggest fan and supporter!
  10. twinstalker
    Thanks for these! Is Emmanuel Rodriguez not one of your top 20 prospects?
  11. twinstalker
    ...we ask after one turn of the rotation and compare to a year with shortened spring training.
  12. twinstalker
    Noah Miller was a vast overdraft, can't hit a lick, and will at his peak be a utility man in the infield if all goes as well as possible over the next several years. So we're not really serious with the question, right? It's like the Twins blew this one, and nobody wants to admit it. Why is this harder to admit than Aaron Sabato?
  13. twinstalker
    Holy cow, so far it looks like one of the Twins' worst trades ever. They've gotten exactly nothing so far for two guys who look like productive major leaguers, one now, one probably later in the year. Nothing is going to win this trade for the Twins, you just hope Mahle can provide some help they wouldn't otherwise have toward making the playoffs. So far...he's provided nothing extra, and there's an extreme injury worry.
  14. twinstalker
    He's done well. I've even taken him in my fantasy simulation league. Twins bullpen is being incredibly overrated for some reason by the locals, and I think it's going to have to be patched together with the likes of Coloumbe and a number of others we didn't sign (oops). To think the Twins will have an above average (among 20 or so contending teams) bullpen, you have to think all of this: 1. Relievers who stayed healthy will stay healthy again. 2. Regression to the mean is fictional (this is for Duran, Moran mostly) 3. A reliever who's career has been horrible will pitch lights out for the Twins after pitching to a 4.37 ERA for them last year (Lopez). 4. Pitchers who miss a year due to a major injury will have no issues this year (Alcala). 5. Pagan is different from what all the evidence suggests his whole career. My guess is Megill, Jax, and Thielbar probably pitch about the same as a group as they did in 2022, and that's not overwhelming. I think as much as the Twins created depth for its lineup and rotation, they ignored what's going to happen in the bullpen.
  15. twinstalker
    Reds fans: "We got Steer! We got Encarnacion-Strand!" Twins fans: "We got a rock."
  16. twinstalker
    Marco Raya is your 4th best prospect?
  17. twinstalker
    No mention of Vazquez, the biggest rule-change acquisition the Twins made? As great as he is at throwing out runners, I still think most of the issue is with all the pitchers. It never seemed Jeffers or Sanchez or Garver ever had a chance.
  18. twinstalker
    I think the injury might be the break he's needed. The Twins can't seem to keep him off their bench. With all the other injuries (and more to come), I could just see him breaking camp with them once again. As is, he'll maybe get transferred to the 60-day at some point when the Twins need, say, Garlick. He'll hang with the complex getting work in for a while, then have his 20 day rehab. By that time, someone else will be eligible for the 60, they won't have to drop Garlick. They can then drop GC to AAA. But to GC, it will just be rehab and then AAA for most of the year. He needs that.
  19. twinstalker
    But the onus isn't on me. He's currently a minor league player. To reject that null hypothesis, you need evidence otherwise. Hitting 2-3 batting practice type HRs is not evidence. Hitting well vs major leaguers midway through spring training might be. On the other hand, striking out 8 of 17 PAs at that early, early stage is a red flag. So far he's struck out more at the minor league levels than moving to the majors will withstand. 25% at AA becomes 35% at MLB. Julien has a chance to be an MLBer, maybe a decent one, but I'd suggest the truer evidence against the type of pitching he's faced (first outings, slow straight balls, many bad pitchers) is the inability to put the ball in play rather than the fact three have gone over the fence when he does hit it. He's on the 40, so injuries can allow for anything to happen, but if you were to infer anything from the first 17 plate appearances in spring training, it should be that he's not ready.
  20. twinstalker
    You're suggesting a guy who's never played above AA, who has a K rate of 47% in spring training where pitchers are at the point of just trying to get the ball over the plate, should maybe be in the Twins lineup?
  21. twinstalker
    Well, then you're in luck!
  22. twinstalker
    I wouldn't get ahead of ourselves wrt Lee. He had a debut at A+ that's in the normal range for a high pick without a ton of upside left. A few games at AA mean nothing. Coach's kids don't often have a lot left to learn. He's no doubt a major leaguer waiting to happen, but how good is very much yet to be determined. We always judge our prospects by their 99th percentile outcomes, their best-case scenarios. That's the main reason for both the disappointment and delusion that we're cursed. We also forget about the success of a meh prospect like Luis Arraez as if we deserve him getting close to his 99th..
  23. twinstalker
    My first thought is they realized Kirilloff isn't close, and they're moving Miranda to 1B. Paranoia, maybe, but with a sliver of logic.
  24. twinstalker
    Other than Boras clients never doing these things, this would be a relevant topic. I've often thought over the past years (given Kirilloff and Lewis) that it will be Boras non-extensions that will be the breakup of Falvine and Boras. This front office sold its soul to Boras, and they will find out why this is a bad thing, though apparently the weirdest scenario ever could play out (see Correa).
  25. twinstalker
    Not all that good. Was that the question?
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