twinstalker

I highly doubt that his ERA is playing into Toronto's evaluation of him. It might play into public perception, as it did with you, thinking Toronto's soured on him because of it.

I think this farm system is severely overrated. Very little hitting brought in by Falvey, and he's done a great job of dismissing some Ryan guys. As much as I screamed for better analytics, I'm worried the scouting has been lacking since the purge. Hard to get excited about guys who will never play MLB (except for a sip of coffee, maybe).

Great trade. Who'd we get?

I know this is a bit of a dream, but the Twins should be locking their sights on CJ Abrams first, Noelvi Marte second. While they need close pitching, they need a strong shortstop who can really hit even more (especially since "pitching prospects" is a bit of an oxymoron). I don't think Royce Lewis is the former, and there's a chance he's not the latter. Unfortunately, he's probably our CF going forward. I am absolutely sure neither the Padres nor Mariners plan to give up their prized shortstop prospect, but I would demand it. Berrios can pitch here next year, if it doesn't work.

They would have been a playoff team with Santana. They lost game 163 to miss the playoffs. I'm sure he would have gotten them one extra win somewhere. The timing of the Santana trade was bad, I thought at the time. Prior to 2007 when rumors had started circulating I thought was the best time, then at the trade deadline that year. Trading a star pitcher with only one year to go is going to bring minimum return, even less than waiting until the trade deadline in 2008. Teams didn't have the urgency and only had him for one season. We will be disappointed if the Twins trade Berrios for any of the offers they had for Santana (disregarding eventual outcomes like Lester). But if they don't trade him today, they will be looking at similar scenarios.

I think the trades so far are indications the Twins want far more than teams are willing to give. If the Twins ask the Yankees for Peraza+ for Kepler, why would they do that when they can give up nothing for Gallo? You better have an excellent scouting/analytic group if you're sellers these days, and I suspect the Twins have neither. Their analytics team is seemingly duped by the fallacy of correlation.

Larnach's k rate is a bit troubling and caps his production. Comparing the seasons of these two guys to other prospects 3 and 4 years younger than them seems careless. Larnach isn't close to the names mentioned. Kirilloff should keep pace with them once his wrist gets fixed.

This might be Noah Miller this year. That was my impression when they made the pick.

You have an incredibly optimistic viewpoint. First, there are a lot of high upside arms in the Twins system. Guys who've already shown they can progress through the system. I wouldn't put a guy whose resume is "big high school arm" anywhere near them. And Noah Miller is the 36th player taken, seemingly a reach. He ranked about where the Twins 2nd rounder did last year, and you can probably expect him to be placed about the same spot in Twins rankings. Dig into where Owen Miller ranked on the Cleveland farm system his first couple of years. That's what we're talking. Overall, I'm not thrilled with the night, but of course if they happened to pick a stud pitcher, that's great. Miller's ceiling is low, so you really, really hope for a Tyler Freeman type, but that seems unlikely. The problem, as I see it, is big HS arms are like the kids who are the kings and queens of their high school. It doesn't take long to realize that it's probably the best they're ever going to be. Meanwhile, the not so popular kids go to college, their arms get stronger, and they understand maybe what it's like to fail so that they've learned to grow from it. And they're the one who become successful adults. Chase Petty is to me the ultimate lottery ticket in that I really don't expect it to work out. I'm not even sure what the upside is. It's not like he'll be throwing 100 mph in the big leagues if he's a starter. I suspect the Twins like his slider. It's awfully early to like someone's slider, especially if control/command is lacking. It would seem this is a young Fernando Romero. Well, that's about as devil's advocate as I can be. ?

As opposed to all the Twins college picks who take 4-5 years.

I think it would be nice if you added a couple of honorable mentions (HM) to the end of the top 20 list, whoever should be of interest (but not who had the best games). HM Edouard Julien HM Jovani Moran etc. I realize this takes a lot of time, so thank you for what you do with these, and I understand where you don't want to make more work for yourself.

They've made some horrible mistakes. Anderson, Gil, and Ynoa are three they just threw away as if they had no value, and there are others who haven't yet climbed to the point where we know. Ugly. Ober, Sands, and Winder appear to be their successes, outpitching expectations, but when you think of it, do they make up for guys they gave away? Couldn't they have all of it?

I'm surprised Julien isn't ranked, but then a guy's gotta show major league pop, and I'm not sure he has it. I haven't studied him enough. Taking walks in the low minors is a paradoxical trait. Good eye, kid, but what happens when you get to pitchers consistently in the strike zone...can you make them pay?

I think this implies: Can we get Twins talent cheap? If so, we'll make a play for it. If not, we'll move on. Why the Twins? Most non-contenders don't have talent they're willing to get rid of, except the occasional Freddy Galvis type. (Better than Simmons, though)

Mauricio is projected to move to the outfield.

Wow, Tyler Watson. Am I mistaken, or is that the guy we got back for Ben Revere? Okay, maybe not that long ago but some guy we shuttled off to DC a number of years ago...

Love him, but it's something to think about.

I think the trade values are probably pretty close. They certainly don't match Cruz' production, but you're getting 2-3 months of it only. I think a Duran-like return is what we can expect and probably what we should hope for, a guy with a real chance that hasn't put it all together yet. It does look like it will be a five year wait for Duran to get to MLB, unfortunately. Chicago simply will not let a prospect with any upside go to the Twins, so I don't see a trade there. Certainly Oakland and Toronto will let someone go who might make it big. It's just not going to be a name we know real well.

I finally got done laughing at the idea of getting Orelvis Martinez for Pineda. I've had a rough day...I needed that. Orelvis would bring a young pitcher with lots of team control left and who is better than Pineda. Like one of Miami's young studs. The good news is: there aren't a lot of teams trading good starters who are out of it. Throw in Balazovic with Pineda, and you might get Orelvis and garbage the Twins hope you think is good.

Balazovic did pitch, according to you.

Alcala needs to be the 7th or 8th option out of the pen next year. The bullpen was a major failure, and a good pen makes up for just about everything.

After watching Simmons and every little thing he brings, I'm pretty confident he's part of the problem and not part of the solution. The only thing I want back is someone to fill the shortstop gap for the rest of the year. Someone who tries, someone who hustles, someone who gives a crap about details. It's really easy to see why the Angels let him go for also-ran Iglesias. Hey, someone like Iglesias!

I understand where you're coming from here, but Cruz simply isn't in demand. I think Pineda, barring injury here, is the prime trade value, Cruz' value is more in line with the relievers if the Twins donate some money. I know, it's a ridiculous thought, but I just don't see a buyer. Colome and Robles are live arms.

I think Tampa's situation is such that they have too many guys for their positions already, and they love having flexibility. Yes, they looked at Cruz prior to 2019, but three seasons of roster make-up has occurred since. Would he improve their DH numbers? Yes. Would he improve their team? That's not as certain. I would think a more traditional team would look at Cruz, maybe the Red Sox, who could move JDM to right, or the Yankees, who will have enough injuries to justify it. But it is a tough sell, unfortunately.

Thanks, Seth, this stuff is truly amazing and greatly appreciated. For me at least, it hits the sweet spot of exactly what I'm looking for. And I'm usually a bitcher (also short for belly itcher).