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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    Just wondering who goes when Stewart, Alcala, and Paddack come off the 60-day IL.
  2. twinstalker
    EmRod won't be close to a top five prospect. First, these are guys who are generally new...you don't become top five in your fifth minor league season. To be top five, you have to destroy the minors. EmRod is very mixed in his results, he's moving up one level per year, and his strikeout rate is outrageous. Top five guys are the ones who are without a doubt special, even as many of them fail to pan out. Jenkins could be a guy who gets top five (he's already top twenty, I think). The problem is his competition. Not only will the four guys drafted ahead of him get the same consideration (though Skenes might not qualify for 2025), all the current guys already in line will be inching toward that. The Twins would have a role in this, too, I would think. Jenkins will be viewed as a better prospect if he's promoted aggressively and still hits. If he somehow gets to AA next year after breezing through A and A+, he's got a great chance. Just based on this year, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that Jenkins and EmRod end next year at AA. Twins won't have to protect Jenkins until after the 2027 season, I believe. EmRod I believe has to be protected this offseason.
  3. twinstalker
    The strikeout rate is the important stat. Well, that and the fact it's harder than hell to hit in the FSL and maybe more so in Fort Myers. I see he's at 6 Ks now, so something bad happened, but if he's K-ing under 12% of the time, that's still a great sign.
  4. twinstalker
    "Eddie Bane's incompetence in 1976 stood in stark contrast to Mark Fidrych's remarkable rookie season." Or "Mark Fidrych and Eddie Bane both made their major league debut at age 21." Or "On the mound Eddie Bane was constantly have conferences with his catcher and pitching coach, while Mark Fidrych was constantly have conferences with the baseball in his hand."
  5. twinstalker
    I don't mind the Twins pitching him a lot, because, hey, he's 28 and needs to build up innings. The way to do that is to pitch regularly and not be coddled into the playoffs. If he tires, shut him down. But I do not understand demoting him. Put him on the IL, then perhaps a rehab start, similar to Ryan. But if the Twins/Saints get 155-160 IP from him this year, including playoffs, that's more than we could have expected and a fine number as he heads into next season. The five-year average for the Super Two cutoff is 2 yrs, 124 days, and coincidentally, that's exactly what Ober would have been at had he spent the whole year in the majors (after last year: 1 yr, 124 days). And actually, of the 180-185 days of the MLB season, a player only needs 172 to get to a full year. Keeping him down as they did for 24 days to start this 184 day season would have reduced his service time to 2 yrs 112 days had he finished out the season. While that was very likely under the super two status this offseason, this recent demotion made sure of it.
  6. twinstalker
    Unless I forgot about MLB and MLBPA getting rid of super 2 for arbitration, it certain does matter. He came into the year with 1 year, 124 days. Super two this last time was a few days over that, but it varies. The demotions have cost Ober a bit of money, not to mention the salary difference between mlb and aaa.
  7. twinstalker
    Well, it sort of is. 140 vs 73. Guessing I'm not the first to point that out.
  8. twinstalker
    This article acts like it's over, that everything's been decided. Pitchers are going to start getting him out at some point, this year or next. That's extremely likely. Do we write another article about who's right or maybe instead let it play out to determine how good he is? The Twins have exactly five years left with Lewis after this (barring a trade or huge overpay...because Boras). The current moment is exciting to see and provides hope for the next few years. That should be where we're at, not who's right and who's wrong, as pitchers are getting their first looks at him, and the book is being written.
  9. twinstalker
    Coming in to today, Salas' numbers have been even worse since coming back. I'd take 4 for 4 in a 12-0 game with a grain of salt. Most of the good prospects get promoted and therefore can't put up counting nunbers or qualify for things like OPS lead. So while I have some hope for EmRod, it's disappointing that the didn't push the Twins to promote him. He could maybe even have gotten some ABs in the Triple A playoffs had he performed well enough and gotten to AA. It's been somewhat of a disappointing season from him.
  10. twinstalker
    "Nauseated," but your point stands.
  11. twinstalker
    Houston is the right answer. They won't touch Verlander or Valdez.
  12. twinstalker
    Keaschall needs to be moved up to see how he fares against competition a top few rounds college player should be playing against.
  13. twinstalker
    This narrative is based on a comparison to the league's average age. That's fine if your goal is to find someone who might someday merit a cup of coffee. I think what anybody really wants is a prospect who's showing that he's possibly a legit starter/contributor at the MLB level. So, if you're using age to provide an idea where a prospect is at, the standard is much higher than age vs league average. Yes, Salas is not old. This is his age 20 season, but he didn't "just" turn 20, as if it were this week, it was four months ago. A 20 yr old at A+ has a chance, in general, to be considered a real prospect, but he's already old for certain statuses (such as potential superstar, e.g.), and his ops at age 20 is barely over .500, leading a reasonable evaluator to believe he'll be repeating the league in 2024. If he doesn't smash the league then and get immediately promoted to AA, his chances of being anything much at all for the Twin are reduced greatly. Let's not let three hits redefine his season. My only hope is that the Twins found something in Fort Myers that maybe fixed him.
  14. twinstalker
    Yoyner, org guy, 24 at AA, Pirates (Pirates!) didn't want him after a .700 ops last year as an older OF. Wichita and St. Paul can fool you, as they're both hitter's parks (esp SP), and he's an OF at Wichita, old for a real prospect, avg age for the league, and he's an .800 guy. Because he's OF, I doubt he's ever more than an org guy, but he might get a chance elsewhere if some team ignores the park and just needs AAA depth. Twins might just need AAA depth. Severino, switch hitter, is much better at AA/AAA than he ever was in the lower minors, at least partially if not mostly due to the ballparks (see Miranda). He can't field, hits righties better this year, at least, and strikes out way to much to be an MLB threat. I'm still not sure why for the last two seasons I've excused Wallner's k rate when I deem it so important, but there's something different with Wallner I can't quite place, and I doubt the likes of Severino and Larnach and most all others who strike out way too much in the minors will ever be anything in MLB.
  15. twinstalker
    SWR might look different in middle relief out of St. Paul. Balazovic isn't a horrible comp.
  16. twinstalker
    Kudos! paraphrased: "The Twins have hamstrung themselves with Buxton at DH."
  17. twinstalker
    Well, there's redundancy in the stats you provide (vs league), sometimes extremely so. I'm not even sure what comparing BABIP to league avg accomplishes. It could mean he has more barrels, but that should be the stat, not BABIP. It also could mean he's been luckier, which I think goes against your thesis.
  18. twinstalker
    I really liked De Andrade's swing when they signed him. As opposed to Wander Javier's. I wouldn't be shocked if he's someone who actually belongs in that #4 prospect slot, as much of a drop off the cliff it is (with Wallner not eligible anymore).
  19. twinstalker
    It's really sad that Charlee Soto is #6 before he's done anything. But that's the state of the Twins org right now. Wallner (#5) has graduated, and Raya has done very little to deserve #4, so I'm imagining Soto moves up. And I can't argue when he does.
  20. twinstalker
    And you really think Emilio is done Paganing us? If this isn't remembered as the season Kepler was allowed to restore his trade value, I'm not sure what to think. I'm not exactly sure when the Twins are allowed to trade again relative to when Kepler's option has to be picked up, but they better be working the back channel phones leading up to any deadlines.
  21. twinstalker
    Thanks. Not sure what your criterion is for a "prospect," but Wallner's passed the rookie AB threshold.
  22. twinstalker
    Haven't read the article here, just came in response to the title. "No."
  23. twinstalker
    People are going to think Brandon Winokur is from Minneapolis Edison.
  24. twinstalker
    Somebody had to say "stop the madness." Falvey has overpaid for everything and pretty much been a lap dog to Scott Boras. Anybody can do that. Don't know what I'm doing? Hey, I'll just overpay for a Boras client. Anyway, I was thinking recently that the Pohlads have to put up a stop sign to this, and that would mean Falvey might have trouble doing anything, since he's already ruined the farm system.
  25. twinstalker
    For some reason I thought Winokur was a college bat and thought it was telling he stayed at FCL when the other moved over to A ball. Happier now that I checked and saw otherwise. It appears the Twins hedged their bets between Winokur and Keaschall. They took the potential power guy Winokur who likely profiles as Kepler or Larnarch if he succeeds, and they took the hit tool guy in Keaschall. Amazing that they took only one position player after the 3rd round and only four overall (not counting the two quasi-picks at the end they weren't going to sign). Four hitters, fifteen pitchers. Good to see Jenkins have success on Day 1. His only two possible outcomes at FCL are Expected and Bad, so glad we saw Expected. I left out Injured, I guess. :-)
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