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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    Coming in to today, Salas' numbers have been even worse since coming back. I'd take 4 for 4 in a 12-0 game with a grain of salt. Most of the good prospects get promoted and therefore can't put up counting nunbers or qualify for things like OPS lead. So while I have some hope for EmRod, it's disappointing that the didn't push the Twins to promote him. He could maybe even have gotten some ABs in the Triple A playoffs had he performed well enough and gotten to AA. It's been somewhat of a disappointing season from him.
  2. twinstalker
    "Nauseated," but your point stands.
  3. twinstalker
    Houston is the right answer. They won't touch Verlander or Valdez.
  4. twinstalker
    Keaschall needs to be moved up to see how he fares against competition a top few rounds college player should be playing against.
  5. twinstalker
    This narrative is based on a comparison to the league's average age. That's fine if your goal is to find someone who might someday merit a cup of coffee. I think what anybody really wants is a prospect who's showing that he's possibly a legit starter/contributor at the MLB level. So, if you're using age to provide an idea where a prospect is at, the standard is much higher than age vs league average. Yes, Salas is not old. This is his age 20 season, but he didn't "just" turn 20, as if it were this week, it was four months ago. A 20 yr old at A+ has a chance, in general, to be considered a real prospect, but he's already old for certain statuses (such as potential superstar, e.g.), and his ops at age 20 is barely over .500, leading a reasonable evaluator to believe he'll be repeating the league in 2024. If he doesn't smash the league then and get immediately promoted to AA, his chances of being anything much at all for the Twin are reduced greatly. Let's not let three hits redefine his season. My only hope is that the Twins found something in Fort Myers that maybe fixed him.
  6. twinstalker
    Yoyner, org guy, 24 at AA, Pirates (Pirates!) didn't want him after a .700 ops last year as an older OF. Wichita and St. Paul can fool you, as they're both hitter's parks (esp SP), and he's an OF at Wichita, old for a real prospect, avg age for the league, and he's an .800 guy. Because he's OF, I doubt he's ever more than an org guy, but he might get a chance elsewhere if some team ignores the park and just needs AAA depth. Twins might just need AAA depth. Severino, switch hitter, is much better at AA/AAA than he ever was in the lower minors, at least partially if not mostly due to the ballparks (see Miranda). He can't field, hits righties better this year, at least, and strikes out way to much to be an MLB threat. I'm still not sure why for the last two seasons I've excused Wallner's k rate when I deem it so important, but there's something different with Wallner I can't quite place, and I doubt the likes of Severino and Larnach and most all others who strike out way too much in the minors will ever be anything in MLB.
  7. twinstalker
    SWR might look different in middle relief out of St. Paul. Balazovic isn't a horrible comp.
  8. twinstalker
    Kudos! paraphrased: "The Twins have hamstrung themselves with Buxton at DH."
  9. twinstalker
    Well, there's redundancy in the stats you provide (vs league), sometimes extremely so. I'm not even sure what comparing BABIP to league avg accomplishes. It could mean he has more barrels, but that should be the stat, not BABIP. It also could mean he's been luckier, which I think goes against your thesis.
  10. twinstalker
    I really liked De Andrade's swing when they signed him. As opposed to Wander Javier's. I wouldn't be shocked if he's someone who actually belongs in that #4 prospect slot, as much of a drop off the cliff it is (with Wallner not eligible anymore).
  11. twinstalker
    It's really sad that Charlee Soto is #6 before he's done anything. But that's the state of the Twins org right now. Wallner (#5) has graduated, and Raya has done very little to deserve #4, so I'm imagining Soto moves up. And I can't argue when he does.
  12. twinstalker
    And you really think Emilio is done Paganing us? If this isn't remembered as the season Kepler was allowed to restore his trade value, I'm not sure what to think. I'm not exactly sure when the Twins are allowed to trade again relative to when Kepler's option has to be picked up, but they better be working the back channel phones leading up to any deadlines.
  13. twinstalker
    Thanks. Not sure what your criterion is for a "prospect," but Wallner's passed the rookie AB threshold.
  14. twinstalker
    Haven't read the article here, just came in response to the title. "No."
  15. twinstalker
    People are going to think Brandon Winokur is from Minneapolis Edison.
  16. twinstalker
    Somebody had to say "stop the madness." Falvey has overpaid for everything and pretty much been a lap dog to Scott Boras. Anybody can do that. Don't know what I'm doing? Hey, I'll just overpay for a Boras client. Anyway, I was thinking recently that the Pohlads have to put up a stop sign to this, and that would mean Falvey might have trouble doing anything, since he's already ruined the farm system.
  17. twinstalker
    For some reason I thought Winokur was a college bat and thought it was telling he stayed at FCL when the other moved over to A ball. Happier now that I checked and saw otherwise. It appears the Twins hedged their bets between Winokur and Keaschall. They took the potential power guy Winokur who likely profiles as Kepler or Larnarch if he succeeds, and they took the hit tool guy in Keaschall. Amazing that they took only one position player after the 3rd round and only four overall (not counting the two quasi-picks at the end they weren't going to sign). Four hitters, fifteen pitchers. Good to see Jenkins have success on Day 1. His only two possible outcomes at FCL are Expected and Bad, so glad we saw Expected. I left out Injured, I guess. :-)
  18. twinstalker
    I think he needed every AB he got at AA. I don't see anything special in him (star-wise), but compared to the system he definitely stands out, including probably vs a number of MLB Twins hitters. Keep an eye on his home/away stats when evaluating how he does at AAA. CHS is a hitter's dream. Am I right that Boras is not his agent, so the Twins have a chance of keeping him more than six years? Unfortunately, Boras is still his quasi-boss, as he will determine his teammates, including the departures of Lewis and Kirilloff probably just about the time they get healthy in their careers.
  19. twinstalker
    Thank you. Obviously, we can do the research, but what would be really nice for these monthlies would be having the age, perhaps July 1 age, as part of the info. Regardless, thanks, always a fun read, and a hat tip to the work that goes into it.
  20. twinstalker
    Seems to me every draftee would be assigned to FCL initially for indoctrination and then go from there.
  21. twinstalker
    Yeah, agreed. But Severino's an eventual AAAA player. I just hope they don't protect him this offseason. How difficult would it be for MLB pitchers to strike him out? I will say his K rate this month is under 25%, so that's huge improvement for him. But then again, the tougher pitchers get promoted in June, and he didn't. Pretty much doesn't matter which player Falvey was offering me in trade for my reliever or rh stick, I wouldn't want anybody he was wiling to give up. It's a very stinky system, and will really only avoid being the worst this offseason because they lucked into the 5th pick. Lee, EmRod, and Jenkins are the only three who stand out, and I believe anyone else would be an after-thought in nearly every other system. Just wondering, how does Keirsey, 26, get the nod for #5 hitter of July over catcher Cardenas, 23? Keirsey's numbers are average in a hitter's park/league, while the more valuable position player in much more of a pitcher's park/league had very good stats. I could see it one were the prospect and the other not, but Cardenas is more of a prospect than Keirsey.
  22. twinstalker
    Better than the three reasons Falvey gave.
  23. twinstalker
    The obvious is still not being talked about. I really don't think Falvey had any ammunition to work with after the 3-4 guys he probably deemed untouchable in negotiations. Every team can see that Larnach and Severino aren't eventual helpful major leaguers. The Twins whole system strikes out too much (age vs level) to ever make it in MLB, save a few like Lee. Even if Falvey could trade Larnach for a bag of peanuts, doing so would be a huge admission of failure, and Falvey doesn't appear to be secure enough to admit when he makes mistakes. Larnach, Kepler, Gallo...
  24. twinstalker
    Control of what? The Twins had years of control with Jose Lopez. For a guy like Civale, control can be a burden. TB might change his peripherals and make him into a good, projectable starter, but from Cleveland's POV, Civale was what he was. And what he was was a highly variable starter who was having success at the moment. Sell high. Very little sense in selling Gray, but if they did, they'd have to be blown away with an offer far better than the compensation pick they'd get. That's maybe difficult. For instance, would you do it for a guy like Drew Gilbert? He was actually taken with a pick similar to what the Twins would get if Gray went to FA with them. I doubt they'd get more than that, and Gilbert's value might not ever make up for losing two months and possible postseason of Gray. Prospects Live has Gilbert in the 40s and MLB.com has him 68. In other words, it makes almost zero sense to trade Gray, given the probable return.
  25. twinstalker
    The public doesn't dig down into the stats very far. Twins prospects, except for Lee and maybe a few others much further down, have huge K rates, and teams only look as far as that to say no. I think Wallner's k rate is a bit misleading, but I can't quantify why. I doubt a team is going to look at it and say: "There's a future all-star." I realize you just use Wallner as an example, but again, outside of Lee and possibly some new draftees, nearly every prospect is badly flawed. It's a bad system thanks to bad drafts, meh signings, and horrible trades. Boras is basically running the front office for his own benefit (Joey Gallo says thanks for the $11 million, Lewis and Kirilloff and Jeffers won't be accepting early, team-friendly deals).
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