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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    The premise of this article is erroneous, I believe. There will be no extension with the Twins, save for one accompanied by gasps at the numbers. The only way the word "discount" should be used is something like "never going to be a discount." Twins would have to pay stupid money to extend him a couple of years, and I doubt they could really even do that, since Royce has taken longer to get to FA than anticipated. Boras isn't going to let him get two years older before his really big contract. The topic should really be about why the Twins are in bed with Scott Boras when they know his and his players' only goal in a contract is to increase the salaries of all future contracts. As I've said for the last year, enjoy Lewis while you can, and if the Twins are strategic about this, they might be looking to deal him with multiple years left under team control. Check out the Nationals' haul on Juan Soto. Or keep him, which is fine, too, as long as everyone understands he's six and out, and there's really nothing the Twins can do to change that.
  2. twinstalker
    I've never understood the fascination with Raya, much less the usage. He doesn't appear to do well in his short stints, which gives me little faith in him even as a reliever. I would never have had this guy in my top 20. I think that requires doing something first, unless maybe you're granted one free ticket due to being a first-round pick. The response variable we're ultimately looking at is getting results in MLB. It would seem a required antecedent of that would be getting results somewhere prior to MLB.
  3. twinstalker
    They definitely pitched to contact.
  4. twinstalker
    It was an incredible day, and I ended up spending three hours inside listening to the radio instead of enjoying the outdoor pool 90 feet away.
  5. twinstalker
    RIP Willie. You and Hank were still a thing when I was a kid discovering baseball. I first remember seeing you (and cheering against you) in the NLDS vs the Pirates. Then you went to the Mets, and I realized you were ending your career, but I was happy you got to play one last time in the World Series. As I watched you for what would be one of your last few ABs, I munched on caramel corn and got violently ill and missed two weeks of school. While I am sure to this day the caramel corn did not give me a two-week case of whatever I had, I have not been able to eat it since. Plus I had a crush on a girl in my class named Lori, and you kept me away from her all that time because I soon assigned blame to what I was watching along with what I was eating. I was watching you. And I hope before I lost it, I got to see one of the two hits you had that series, your last. RIP Willie.
  6. twinstalker
    If you strike out 31% of the time at AA, you have virtually no chance of doing anything at MLB. There are exceptions, and I thought Matt Wallner might be one, but I'm willing to be my house Sabato is not one. Reducing your K rate in your third AA season is more expected than not expected. The Aaron Sabatos of yore all eventually made it to AAA or AAAA status, and to do so, they needed to figure out AA first at a "too old" age. You can find thirty former Twins system guys just like Sabato. I didn't mind the pick at the time, despite my recognition of the extremely small number of rh hitter drafted as 1B making it. Lesson learned.
  7. twinstalker
    You could probably skip the 23 doubles. :-)
  8. twinstalker
    Morris and Culpepper are really part of this group, too, though Culpepper is likely out for a long, long time, and Morris needs more development in some respects.
  9. twinstalker
    Cavaco worst. But Noah Miller close. Guys that got injured or were expected to be back from injuries aren't the worst picks. It's the guys you should be able to tell won't have a chance. Cavaco never had a chance. Miller's upside is Jace Peterson. You never take someone in the first round (supp) whose upside is Jace Peterson.
  10. twinstalker
    Harry's numbers don't really excite in any way unless he's been hurt this year (maybe hurt in the eyes). Low A last year was a step down, and his walk and K numbers reflected that. Despite this, because it's a pitcher's league, his batting numbers were surprisingly good, and he's young for his college draft status. All this leads to anticipation for his promotion to A+, where he's sort of sh*t the bed. His K rate doubled, BB rate halved, and as you'd expect with that, his slash line is bad. It seems clear to me the pitching at A+ has been too tough for him on first try. Right now the odds against him are huge. The hope with him would be a flaw they discover that he can correct. Starting to crush A+ would be a good sign, but there's no indication of that. My guess is he's an organizational player.
  11. twinstalker
    Thanks, but I think the Twins should take with pick 33 a no-chance-to-hit shortstop who's consensus-ranked over 100. How else are we going to get the next Rayne Doncon? I'm not bitter.
  12. twinstalker
    Not. Zebby should, though. Seriously, we think the Twins would trade Zebby before Festa or Soto? That's ridiculous. Not that we're going to trade Festa...it's an absolute need to have someone who can start a game right now, and he's one of two. But Zebby is crushing like few we've seen in all of baseball, much less the Twins. He's older, but it's not that important for pitchers, plus I have very little doubt he'd be crushing AAA right now. Soto is nothing but a lottery ticket and is potential trade bait, though hopefully the FO is tired of getting completely destroyed on trades and will stop trading with smart teams.
  13. twinstalker
    It was quite the switch from sinkerball pitcher to catcher, but kudos.
  14. twinstalker
    Ah, that might be true. "High" and "low" were always used A+ and A, respectively, and they continue to be used, I guess that's what I was referring to. If it's slang, so be it. :-)
  15. twinstalker
    Um, Low A has always been A. There's A and A+, often referred to as low A and high A, respectively. Since forever. There was also, in some systems, A-, and I've never been quite sure what that was. Seems high rookie. When Elizabethton was winning the Appy rookie league most years, it was the Twins high rookie team vs many teams' low rookie team. I imagine a number of those organizations had A- teams. Some organizations just had more resources and therefore more players and therefore more rookie teams. The New York-Penn league and Northwest league were two of these A- leagues, I think. The Twins didn't have teams in either, at least in the last fifty years or so.
  16. twinstalker
    I'm not sure how this possibly supports your assertion, especially being the "best" example (to support your cause). What would make this "when in doubt?" Besides not being designed to answer the question, this draft, IIRC, had Rodon as the best college pitcher out there by far. The first possible "when in doubt" moment is with Nola and Freeman, though I'm not sure how good Freeman is or isn't, given Colorado. Regardless, listing the pitchers in a draft with their WAR doesn't come close to answering the question. An observational design would look at college pitchers over a number of years taken with the same pick or possibly the same pick ranking for college pitchers. Or more simply, look at college lefties vs righties overall production in MLB fractioned by the percentage of each who make it, accounting for starting and innings pitched. It's an interesting question, but I don't think there's anything supporting your statement. It's possible lefties are a better choice, I just doubt there's a proper basis, and my instinct says righties.
  17. twinstalker
    When in doubt take the lefty? I'd be willing to bet that, when talking first-round college SPs and adjusting for pick number, you're better off with the righty in terms of MLB starting pitching stats.
  18. twinstalker
    I don't think that's how it works. What I'm starting to believe in, though, is that the Twins might actually have a development process for blocks of clay.
  19. twinstalker
    Oh, a couple more comments: Good to see Mercedes swinging well. Seems to have a 20% K-rate, which is decent for his age/league (he was at 20% last year at 18/FCL and again at 19/FCL). With lots of qualification, superstar internationals generally mash FCL at 18 or less. Acuna, Soto, Franco are examples. But I think we gave up on that wild hope last year. Doing so well at 19, albeit repeating, is a good sign. His walk rate 11% is double last year, and his isolated power is slightly better (it wasn't bad last year). I suspect he'll be promoted if he continues, and we'll see him with Jenkins in low A for at least a while. They're both 19, Mercedes a few months older. Not being ready last year (and maybe a little hurt), is anything but unusual, but it does possibly indicate he's not at the same level as Jenkins. I don't think they're going to dump Margot for Keirsey. Maybe for Martin. But even if Keirsey were rh, I'd think they'd want to see how he'd do when a 40 man spot otherwise opens up along with an OF injury to get on the 26. Keirsey may very likely not be ready to hit MLB, and to dump Margot for him, he'll have to be about 30% better, given he's left handed.
  20. twinstalker
    EmRod in fact does have a lot to prove still at AA. If what you want out of guy is great minor league stats, then congratulations. I'm invested heavily in him across my fantasy leagues, but I'm not all that optimistic. I've seen time and time again how parts of this profile can destroy the good. He hits the ball hard and far? What happens when he doesn't get a meatball but instead gets only those pitches he doesn't know what to do with? Because there is a wide variety of pitches he doesn't know how to handle. I'd prefer he learn how to compete against those, and if he can't do it at AA, why would he be promoted? All positives that we know of for Keaschall. He's got some pop, doesn't K a ton, and I think (think) he can probably play 2B.
  21. twinstalker
    Just so you know, your recommendation hasn't ever worked. I've never seen a video in the years you've put them on here. I've "whitelisted," and it doesn't help at all. I've never had a problem watching a video from any other site. May I suggest this is something you're causing? Are these videos posted on YouTube?
  22. twinstalker
    Twins are loath to trade good prospects after the Reds fiasco. I'd suggest somebody in the 10-15 range, which Keaschall no longer is in. Sure, trade Gonzalez, but the return is iffy. If you want something big, I'm guessing EmRod is the necessary way to go. If you want something small, Gonzalez is too big a fish. Gonzalez is the right price for someone like...I don't know, the Mets' Lugo from 2-3 years ago. I'm struggling to think of a similar profile so far in 2024 on a losing team. But Lugo was just starting to show he could possibly be a nice starter, he was a vet, and he was cheap. If the Twins trade anybody in a relatively small deal, I'd suggest they've given up on him to some degree. I'd trade EmRod for a year and a half of a top starter similar to Pablo Lopez, but the Twins won't be adding big money.
  23. twinstalker
    I'm not sure I agree with what you said after, but this was my very first thought. Keaschall couldn't be less connected to the Reds trade. I mean, there are going to be some Twins pop-up players every year, and are we going to associated them with our horrible trades for purposes of ??? Twins: horrible trade. Keaschall: guy who might have a chance two years later who's still playing A+/AA. If the Twins didn't have a guy who looked like this (they didn't last year), it would have been further proof the system is in the sewer. Nearly all teams have a Luke Keaschall, you just haven't heard of them. Heck, the Twins just signed one and are likely going to replace Keaschall at A+ with him. That's how easy and common it is to have a Luke Keaschall-like player in your system. I mean, he seems like a decent pick but more of a hustle, great teammate sort than a power guy. K-rate fine. Age for AA promising. I expect some issues, but I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he's ultimately a better hitter (not fielder) than Lee. His age vs production vs level is on the good side and does make him a real prospect until he shows otherwise. OPS at AA of .800+ will keep things promising. btw, I don't know that Keaschall is any better fielder than Steer. He might be, but the bar is much higher in MLB. and fwiw, I did believe the Twins had one of the very worst systems in MLB last year for prospects, saved by Jenkins, really. It seems greatly improved due to many players making a leap, especially those starting the year in A+.
  24. twinstalker
    Like a first round pick three years ago who decided to go way back to low A just for the hell of it. But, yeah, no real point in keeping him there. K rate is a touch higher than you'd hope, given his profile, age, and league, but I'd rather see at A+ whether it's sample size variation. Good to see him park one. No power threat, no MLB future.
  25. twinstalker
    Nope. He won't hit well enough to get a big contract, so it would be dumb to reject it. The Twins only really want the draft pick here. If he does have a really big year and is willing to play CF, then he would reject it because that's worthy of a big contract. I find the probability of that low.
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