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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    He was horrible in Toronto, he's horrible still. No surprise. I, too, hoped he had something the Twins could tweak, but it doesn't appear to be the case.
  2. twinstalker
    Answering the title question: Sure, if he cuts his strikeouts down by a third. (So, no, imo). I have him 5th with the Twins because of this. And it's not just a main predictor I use, it's what the big lists use, and that's the question being asked. If he struck out 18%, he'd be there or on or close to the podium right now. He's also not quite at that superstar prospect age vs level that the #1s and and 2/3s are. Caminero was barely 20 when he was promoted to MLB (and his monster age 19 season at AA yielded a 17% K rate), Holliday carved up AA at age 19 with a ~20% K rate. Our guy is 21 at AA with a 27.5% K rate, which could be higher, as it's prone to noise, and he's been worse his whole career. The good news for EmRod is that it appears all the superstar prospects are disappearing to the majors, and with the recent meh draft, the top few won't be as strong as they've been recently. I just don't believe the predictive components that get a guy that highly ranked will favor him. And not to bring up Julien, but there are reasons why Julien's 2022 monster season at Wichita didn't get him ranked very high. He was 23, his K rate was 25%, and he wasn't top 100 pre-2023 by the big lists. I think EmRod will be ranked much higher than Julien because of age vs level, but the strikeouts will limit his ceiling on lists.
  3. twinstalker
    Zebby I thought didn't look as bad as the trouble he caused himself. It would have been nice to get strikes called when he hit the corners. I hope the outing doesn't mess with his head. He'll do fine if he just keeps keeping on and learning along the way.
  4. twinstalker
    K. Culpepper now to face the level of competition he faced in college. Let's hope he does well, especially with the predictors. Low k rate, high exit velocity, barrels, that sort of thing. Unfortunately, picks B Kyle DeBarge and C Billy Amick haven't shown all that well at Fort Myers yet. Both should be going to Cedar Rapids with Culpepper in your average scenario. FWIW, I liked neither pick but did like their fourth guy, Dasan Hill. I don't really understand the DeBarge pick except in the most base way: vs bad college competition he looked like Luke Keaschall looked vs good college competition. I think this was a scouting department failure along the lines of Noah Miller (different profile). With Amick I think it was super obvious he'll never hit. I'm not all that fond of the Culpepper pick, either. Basically, the draft ran out of really good college hitters early, and that meant it was a crapshoot when the Twins were up. I probably would have reached for the Kentucky OF if I stayed with the normal strategy, but this may have been the year to take a chance on a HS kid like Slade Caldwell, someone with a great hit tool. But Culpepper may be as good as any here, so while I would have passed, showing xbh power and low K rate starting in A+ and above will satisfy me they did as well as a reasonable person might expect. I would have grabbed P Trey Yesavage had he lasted one more pick.
  5. twinstalker
    I hope this isn't an omen. I had a bad feeling today, one that made me feel like losing today could start a slide that might not end until September. We were up 4-0 at the time. Now I see this, and it makes me queasy. Also, I've been trying to remember when Kirby went to batting 3rd. I thought it was earlier 1986, but it may have been 1987.
  6. twinstalker
    I realize this pertains to only four MLB pitchers, but that's included here, too. Zebby Morris Lewis Festa SWR (with apologies, I'm looking at attainable upside a few years down the road vs probability of getting to MLB as a starter) Culpepper Bengard/Soto Varland is going to be a reliever as soon as the pipeline pushes everybody through, maybe before.
  7. twinstalker
    Except he passed the major college test already, and this level is a half step back. Jenkins didn't take a step back to "prove" himself. Not to argue in a petty way (too late?), but I think A+ is where there would be difficulty if he's not the guy they thought he was in college, the Lemon Test. If he strikes out 25% of the time there or can't barrel the ball, etc., that's trouble. My initial downside thoughts when drafted were that he wouldn't end up at shortstop, wouldn't produce much power, and potentially would strike out too much for that profile. His small sample isolated power in wooden bat Cape Cod League was .048, which might suggest problems. He's got athleticism, and I'm under the impression he has a quick bat. That might be good for a decent hit tool. But the 21st pick in the draft isn't usually a good to very good MLBer, and his consensus was lower than 21 by quite a bit. And the Twins have generally not done well taking a guy a guy higher than consensus (that is, there is nothing special about Twins' scouting). I don't know what to think, though. Sometimes it's just all about adapting, and KC might be good there, we'll see. Royce Lewis adapted, Trevor Larnach not so much, though he started with power. At this point, I think the range of outcomes is very wide, from a cup of coffee guy to a regular. I'd be shocked if he were more than than or less than that, but he could easily be a non-power Yunior Severino if things don't go right. He's only three years behind YS. There needs to be fielding value and hit value, the latter of which will show itself in minor league strikeout rate, probably. 15% (at A+ on) good, 25+% bad, class A+ and above. Culpepper, like Winokur, is around #20 in my rankings until I see him succeed in the step up that A+ is. If KC is treading water at age 22 in Cedar Rapids, that's bad value, bad on Twins scouting. Lemon Test still to come. :-)
  8. twinstalker
    Hit tool questionable (likely not good, but...variation) and strikeout rate poor. He seems to be an average to decent player in A with those negatives. The main positive is age vs level, which is better than average currently (for a true prospect). At this point he's a wait-and-see. And he's probably around #20 in this suddenly booming system.
  9. twinstalker
    DrewMo!
  10. twinstalker
    Based on his innings pitched this year and the past few, I don't think the Twins give him any more than 30 IP between MLB and AAA the rest of the way. It's just a year too soon to help much, but I don't doubt he could help for a game or more if things go well.
  11. twinstalker
    Thanks, always enjoyable. Love the Mauer note, that's impressive. One omission is why Hrbek's last game came on August 10. Some (younger?) people might guess it had to do with the hit by pitch! Killebrew was in a slump, no doubt due to the pressure of #500. Back then 500 was the magical number of all magical numbers, more so than 3000 hits. I remember listening many nights to the radio thinking he may never get it. I'm not sure why I missed it that night, but I did and read it in the local northern Iowa paper the next day. In a weird way it bothered me that he hit #501 that same game. Even as a little kid I thought it showed fallibility in one of my heroes that he could quickly hit another with the pressure off. :-) Killer's bad year to that point was one of the reasons the Twins were bad that year. Another reason was Carew hadn't gotten back to full Carew-ness after his 1970 injury. After this game, he was batting .275 with a .318 obp (he was batting .376 when he got hurt June 22, 1970). Researched, obv. It was the beginning of a long drought (with a few interesting seasons) that lasted until the 1987 season. Lastly, as I was looking at 1970 stats, I noticed Minnie Mendoza played a little for Twins and...wait for it...batted .188, which, in his 16 ABs, was the closest he could possibly come to .200. Another hit in there would have had him at .250. The Mendoza Line was real!
  12. twinstalker
    I can't think of a worse decision than extending Castro. Twins have a year of control left, and there's an argument to be made to trade him. Keaschall and Eeles hold the same positional value and will likely hit and be ready in 2025 or 2026. Lee will be the backup shortstop option. What Castro makes next year is the amount he'd likely have to be paid for however many years the Twins would extend him. If the Twins aren't increasing payroll, this is the type of player they could trade if the others are ready. Unfortunately, Keaschall/Eeles may not be ready for next year. They could be, though. Or they may have to be. If it doesn't stunt their payroll, let Castro play out his last year. If it does, trade him. Or trade him to open up the money he makes to help elsewhere.
  13. twinstalker
    It could be poor fielding behind him, but that's not usually the answer. My guess is there are hard hit rate and similar stats that aren't so great. He's not throwing fly balls, but he's getting hit really hard. Conjecture on my part. If I'm right, it's still something that can improve, but it would require Hall to get better.
  14. twinstalker
    I think there's a stat somewhere for taking extra bases, which would be a better thing to look at, since it adjusts for production afterwards.
  15. twinstalker
    Just as I disparage Tanner Schobel in another comment section here!
  16. twinstalker
    I sincerely, SINCERELY, hope the Twins were not counting on Daniel Duarte, as the article says. I already struggle with my feelings about Falvine. I am in the camp where I'd rather shut Zebby down soon than pitch him in meaningful MLB games this year. I think he needs to rest, regroup rather than be under intense pressure at the MLB-race level having thrown more innings than ever before. If your team isn't going to spend to bring in talent, you have to truly treat the up and coming talent with kid gloves. On that note, Dobnak doesn't look great, and the Twins might have to resort to bullpen games or plan for Varland bulk work. SWR losing it the last couple of games is a worry we'll learn more about. I don't think the Twins are in a great spot. Getting Flaherty would have been huge.
  17. twinstalker
    Thanks for the recap! (tl;dr prospect rant) I'm face-palming a little at the prospect rankings. Tell me why a 4th round pick who's done nothing really except be bad and be injured for four years is ranked #10. What is the fascination with Marco Raya? First, if he were anything, really, to speak of when drafted, he very likely would have gone much higher than late 4th rd. Then he's proceeded to show nothing except some good mound work once that got a Twins guy excited. Probably the same Twins guy that saw Aaron Sabato hit a homer once at UNC. Speaking of which, we don't seem to have any problem dropping Sabato off the list long ago, and he was picked three rounds ahead of Raya. It's perplexing what the thought process is. Another I don't understand is why Schobel is considered a top prospect. What's he done? Where's the hope in his swing? There's nothing there. Who's better now and for the future, Tanner Schobel or Payton Eeles? There's not a single person contributing to this ranking who thinks Schobel is better than Eeles, I'm willing to bet. So it doesn't make sense. There is a 1.5 year age difference, I'll give you that, but there's also a difference of being bad at AA vs succeeding at AAA. Oof. Forgive my rant as Kala'i Rosario continues his climb to being the next Yunior Severino. Also, why in the world do we want to rank recent high draftees so high on this list? Can K. Culpepper or K. DeBarge hit any top pitching? Word is they don't do well vs the better ones (worse than they should), and that's with non-wood bats. As a rule, no Twins prospect should initially be ranked higher than the pick used to draft their top pick, unless there's a weird situation like last year with Jenkins ( one of five #1s in the class, arguably). I would place K. Culpepper at 21 ahead of the other draftees and Winokur and Raya and Schobel and Rosario. There are a lot of Twins prospects, real prospects, who've shown something exciting at an appropriate level. Let the draftees rise as they show they are really good wrt age/level/K-rate. I'm happy to say we have the same guys in the top five, slightly different order (Zebby, EmRod switched). I think Festa is behind Morris and Lewis prospect-wise, but it's definitely arguable, and it wouldn't surprise me much if Festa were the best of these. Finally again, you completely left off four guys who have to be on there, one of which I believe is Eeles (he's Punto/Keaschall?). The other three are Danny De Andrade (my 7), Dameury Pena (my 12), and Spencer Bengard (my 13). DDA has been hurt after a good start, Pena had a great first half but has faded, Bengard is next in the Ober, Festa, Zebby, Morris, Lewis, CJ Culpepper line. That's all. Thanks for humoring me!
  18. twinstalker
    This game proved that, yes, it is much worse to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all. I like this line in this context, thank you. The Dobber didn't look good today. I'm not loving the season Jenkins is having and really hope next year shows a ton of growth. Unless they refuse to throw him any strikes in an AB, and I don't believe that's the case, he needs to figure out how to punish pitchers. He's 19 at A+, so I understand it's really hard, but a future superstar would be crushing, a future star would be punishing, and a future good player would be having the season he's having. I hoping for the first, willing to settle for the second, and am already expecting "good player" as a baseline. C'mon, WJ! (actually, "future superstar" looks out of the question, given the standard set by those who are) Oh, and for context, I believed Brooks Lee in the minors was showing future mediocre starter to average starter in the bigs, at least hitting-wise.
  19. twinstalker
    A few names to keep an eye on, but you can easily fool with relief stats. Most outing are going to be giving up zero runs, so when you inevitably get more lucky during certain periods, your stats look great. Think Josh Staumont. It's an accomplishment award rather than a prospect ranking, so these may or may not be guys who have a chance. Your best relievers are high, high velocity guys who K a ton and don't walk many (obviously). Very few come up through the minors as relievers and very few would be in one's top 40 prospects. So while it's fun to see if a names been on the list previously, that's pretty much the only value of listing this position. I think there was someone last year who won it multiple months. It wouldn't shock me if that player isn't pitching very well this year.
  20. twinstalker
    Top prospects: Just for reference (and by memory from a couple of weeks ago), I had Lee #2, Keaschall 4, EmRod 5, Mercedes 11, Eeles 16, Olivar 17, Beltre 21, Raya 25, Severino 30 prior to the draft picks being mixed in (the best of which would fit around 15). So, I had my starting pitchers Zebby 3, Morris 6 (and he's my personal favorite), Lewis 8, Festa 10, Bengard 13, CJ Culpepper 14 (due to injury), Soto 15, Lares 24, Raya 25. I don't have McCleod on there, though I likely would have put him in the 26-29 range (I went through 25 then made a point to put Severino at 30, knowing there were guys not listed still better than him). Raya is a reliever (or a bad starter). Bengard actually had me excited when I did the list, but I don't like the July Ks above if that's right. I won't worry a ton about it yet, given what the Twins are doing in their development system. FYI, for hitters I put a ton of weight on age vs level, K rate, as well as production. EmRod, frankly, is likely to struggle like Julien, though there might be more positives for me. For pitchers I'm not quite as detailed, more of "I know it when I see it" than it should be. But velocity, K rate, K:BB play into it, along with different-criterioned age vs level. What makes it tough is that the Twins are developing these guys quickly. BB rate is maybe more important than you'd think, given the Twins are increasing velocity and K rate. Finally, last year I was absolutely disgusted with the system after the first few players, some of whom were "gifted" to them in various ways (Jenkins/Lee). I saw so little and pretty much came to the conclusion that our scouts and development suck. However nearly everybody with any hope whatsoever seems to be having a great year. I absolutely love the system this year. I love the pitching development and the signings of undrafteds, and the hitters who could shine have. I have very little doubt the Twins could have done damage at the deadline had they dealt their future. Given that their handcuffs don't appear to be short-term, I tend to agree with their not giving up anybody teams would have wanted. Cleveland is still the model, though we all wish it were in the old way, not the new reality. I guess I'll list the ones I didn't: Jenkins 1, De Andrade 7, Gonzalez at 9, Dameury Pena at 12, Doncon at 18 (dropping), Keirsey 19 (dropping fast and ceiling was low), Winokur 20 (dropping), Daiber De Los Santos 22 (rising with Beltre), Schobel 23 (dropping). I'll bring my top 30 at end of August perhaps, which should include 3 of top 4 picks plus the 11th rd guy. Not sure whether Amick makes it, but he'll be in the 25-30 at best.
  21. twinstalker
    Yeah, I've had Beltre ahead of a lot of guys in the org, though admittedly I wouldn't be able to tell you how he hits a breaking ball. I do know he doesn't strike out, and that's huge. I've got him around 20 due to DSL and SSS but would expect that to zoom up next year if he handles the FCL. I've questioned the "17" a few times, but that's just because his production and peripherals seem...well, older. edit: Hadn't check his stat line in a while. He's striking out plenty now, more than plenty. It makes more sense than getting an overlooked "next Juan Soto," which is what everything looked like until a week or so ago.
  22. twinstalker
    I'm a K rate diehard, as you've probably seen and grown tired of. Chance of Yunior Severino becoming a decent MLBer? 0. Therefore, prospect status? None. In all my prospecting in all my leagues, I swear by K rate, and it rewards me. The one exception I've made to my hard and fast rules is Matt Wallner, and I'm not sure why. I've gotten the feeling while watching him progress that his Ks aren't so much about trying to hit the ball as they are about not caring about striking out when he goes up there. And if he does care about not striking out in a particular at-bat, he has a much different one. When this is the case, K rate doesn't tell the story. If Wallner has the ability to put together a good AB at will, then let him swing for the fences the rest of the time. I will say my theory about him got stressed at the beginning of the year.
  23. twinstalker
    This division thing is overblown. I'd fire a GM who wouldn't give up an average rental reliever to a rival. The only seasons that matter to me are future ones, and if the rival wants someone for next year as good as the rental reliever, they're going to get that someone in one form or another. If the rival doesn't want to give a bit of a lottery ticket to someone in its own division, I don't know what to tell you. Just seems so dumb.
  24. twinstalker
    Yep, it's not close. LK is nearly two years younger than Speer was, his K rate is lower, walk rate almost double, hit rate better, probably due to less fly balls, which Speer used to hit more homers. Speer is now a regular in MLB, Keaschall will be better, maybe much better. Keaschall for Fedde may have been an appropriate price for this deadline, but given the Twins financials, Keaschall as the Castro replacement makes a lost more sense.
  25. twinstalker
    FYI, Liranzo has been considered a really good prospect. I think BA ranks/ranked him 3rd in a system most teams can't come close to. He's young and had a monster year last year in his age 19 season. Appears to be struggling some this year in more of a pitcher's league, not a shocker given his K rate last year (and this). Better bet to be roster fill, I agree, but that's with most prospects. His lottery ticket still has value. Sweeney's has expired.
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