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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    I'm against this.
  2. twinstalker
    How do you procrastinate?
  3. twinstalker
    John Klein truly belongs on a hot sheet. He's pitched 14 inning his last three outs, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits, 2 walks (3 hbp!!!!) with 19 strikeouts. However, prior to that, his line 44 ip 43 h 29 r 18 er 15 bb 55 k. That's giving up about 6 runs per 9ip, which is terrible. Errors allowed his ERA to be better (3.68), but this one one reason ERA isn't predictive of future ERA, especially with a bad fielding team. Good pitchers get out of tough spots regularly. He's interesting enough to keep an eye on, though. Fedko is a fine organizational player. He has fine stats for AA at a way too old of age (25) to be considered a prospect. Even with a second time round at AA he's striking out too much for a 22 yr old non power hitter to be considered a real prospect. Like Keirsey, he may someday contribute a very small role, but it's not worth discussing. He may benefit from a Twins sell-off, but he might be too far away for that to eventually get him any real number of MLB ABs. I think it's possible for anybody throwing mid 90s to find something one day and soon be unhittable. I have zero reason to believe this is Chaney, who's been dumped and demoted. Imagine how many players we'd have on a hot sheet if the Twins said to them all that they're going to demote them one level. I would have left Chaney off here...for integrity's sake.
  4. twinstalker
    Culpepper is a huge unknown. His success has been at levels where's he's the same age as his competition, and that's a negative indicator if he's not doing it as a younger player. Foremost, as a college player, he doesn't have a lot of time to be younger. So he started at low A (same age), crushed in a small sample, got promoted to A+ (1.3 yrs younger) and sucked. Repeating A+ he crushed (same-ish age) and is now early in his promotion to AA (younger). How good Culpepper is going to be is going to be foretold by how well he does this year at AA. He's eight games in, so it's early. Here's what's not early: 2024 low A: 4.9% -- way too good for level 2024 high A: 18.3% -- 2025 high A: 16.2% -- 2025 AA: 21.1% If you look at this in the proper context, Culpepper's K-rate is good and predictive with some other indicators of future success. His walk rate is in the range you want it (not too low, not too high). If KC ends this AA season with a K-rate under 20%, it bodes well. If he Ks at 16% this whole AA season, he's a more athletic Brooks Lee, which means he should be an average MLB starter. Lee's not even average yet, but that's where he's headed soon, and Culpepper's K rate will determine if he is as well. But if he stays at 21% for this AA season, it's a lot more dicey.
  5. twinstalker
    Maybe if the Twins had done something more than beat four bad teams in half the years of a decade, they'd be remembered with more respect. It's not that it's Minnesota, as much as you'd apparently like to imply that, it's that the Twins never really did anything while playing against an inferior schedule.
  6. twinstalker
    Rod Carew's first batting title wasn't in 1972.
  7. twinstalker
    I'd give Duran and EmRod for Aidan Miller, easily. Maybe get an arm back that will be a future reliever. Kill a lot of birds with that stone.
  8. twinstalker
    I understand this more than anybody, but there's very little sense trading him if you can't get anything. There's really nobody pushing for playing time by the time you've replaced those who can get you something. 🙃
  9. twinstalker
    You don't have to. He's hot, he'll soon be not. So he made it here. The difference with Winokur is there's a tiny bit of hope. If someone has more than a tiny hope, it's a false hope. But there's a tiny bit of hope, which is more than you can say for most (including, say, Billy Amick who probably fits your criterion). And it's noticeable that Winokur's hot. So probably worth a mention. I've also noticed Ohl and H. Castillo in my studies. All worthy of mention in this series.
  10. twinstalker
    There's nothing to see here. I'm glad he's had AA success in his fourth go-round.
  11. twinstalker
    Billy Amick's not shown anything at all. Don't understand this. Don't be fooled. High K rate, too old at level (A+) for prospect status, and unsustainable BABIP. I have no idea what people are looking at. He's not on my top 20.
  12. twinstalker
    Oh, he'll be on the roster soon enough. (Old camp song...) Goodbye, Treva, goodbye Castra, we will miss ya, in Minnesata. Target's not home To Danny Coloumbe Much less Duran, Justa Topa, Harry Bada.
  13. twinstalker
    LOL at premise. Pretty much the Catch-22 of sports.
  14. twinstalker
    My projection of Lee was a second division infielder with a someday pop-up season that might get him an all-star game. Not a guy to build around, but not a bad guy to keep around. Seems right on so far. Last year at this time, that's the description of what I considered the #2 prospect in the system after Jenkins. I thought Keaschall was trending way upward and EmRod was overrated.
  15. twinstalker
    Acuna and Soto were destroying low A at age 18. Acuna the Youngest is a very average prospect at best, but the genes and possible growth make him worth watching on the periphery. I'd expect him to struggle at age 19 at low A. It's a far cry from stardom. Also, when I voted for my top 20, there was no ability to put Serrano in there last week, but I did put someone in and said in the comments it was Serrano. I could find nothing to dislike.
  16. twinstalker
    NM
  17. twinstalker
    Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallDasan Hill Really close with Soto.Charlee SotoConnor PrielippEmmanuel Rodriguez Strikes out way too much to be higher. He's got some upside but the chance to reach it is very low. Minor league high walk rate doesn't project to positive MLB outcomes.Payton Eeles Stud. The lh Freddie Patek!Andrew MorrisGabriel Gonzalez A mix of Kirby Puckett and Jose Miranda. Not sure how much of each.CJ Culpepper Likely needs TJS but pretending he's going to be fineKaelen CulpepperKhadim DiawDanny De AndradeCarson McCuskerBrandon WinokurKyle DeBargeCole PeschlCory LewisDameury PenaSantiago Castellanos This is actually Teilon Serrano, but you don't have him and a bunch of other listed to choose from.
  18. twinstalker
    Bunting (sacrificing) is almost always bad. But it's especially bad in the top half of an extra inning. If the reasoning's not laid in the article or comments, shame on everybody. This is the perfect example of hindsight. It's so clear when you know what the outcome of the alternative is.
  19. twinstalker
    Twins minor league CF has big day at level he was playing at two years ago. I'm afraid Mercedes isn't going to be much of anything. Somewhat disappointing.
  20. twinstalker
    Even at 25% his K rate is far too high to do anything in the majors, K rate is what you need to know, adjusted for age vs level. There's nothing there. 26 in his fourth year at AA, that 25% is more like a normal prospect's 33%. That could well be 40%+ in MLB with contact mostly partial and weak. And maybe a couple of homers at first that don't mean anything other than pitchers feeding him some meatballs until they learn.
  21. twinstalker
    Hey, when your future goes down, and the guy you get off the scrap heap hits really well for a month, you really can't ask for anything more.
  22. twinstalker
    Yeah, first can he hit at all, then we'll worry about whether he hits enough for MLB 1B. Fact is, in his 4th try at AA and only over 159 PAs this year at age 26, Sabato is still striking out 26.4% of the time. If you're thinking he has a chance, you're right in that it's the same chance as Lloyd Christmas. His BABIP is .395 at AA this season compared to closer to .280 for his AA career prior. His reward for all this is being on the Hot Sheet, not being a real prospect.
  23. twinstalker
    My top Twins prospects: 1 Jenkins 2 Keaschall 3 Hill 4 Soto 5 Prielipp 6 EmRod 7 or 8 Morris (can't recall if there's some else in there but don't think so)
  24. twinstalker
    A number of years ago I was ignoring him because of his high K rate, but then I started following him more closely and before he was in the majors I was convinced he was different than other players with high K rate. I became convinced as it became clear that he struck out simply because he was trying to hit homers. It was soon noticeable that he was adjusting when necessary to have quality ABs. That's when I knew this man was dangerous.
  25. twinstalker
    They were also extreme fly ball hitters, and I think you forgot Reggie Jackson in the 1971 all-star game. High fly balls could clear that stadium. Surprised Kingman didn't do it at some point. Funny, I couldn't tell you a thing about any of the all-star games after Torii robbed Bonds, but that 1971 game stood out for so many reasons. I think it might be the only AL win during a many, many year period (like 18-20 years?). Look it all up, I didn't do so.
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