twinstalker

Guessing Carney Lansford...now to read the comments to see if I'm right. A little worried it's later in Puck's career but can't remember who hit and basically didn't walk. There was someone I thought who was Puck's contemporary. Well, yeah, I guess I should of thought of him...the answer.

A lot better, Seth. Criticisms: Raya at 6. Still waiting for somebody to tell me why. All I know is that he's been hurt, he's been mediocre, and he doesn't pitch very long. DeBarge at 13. Why? With all the mistakes this FO has made with draft picks, why does his draft position get him anywhere close to the top 10? Because I know you're not ranking him on his low A stats. There's nothing I've seen or heard that makes him a top 20 or 25 guy. Luke Keaschall should be #2. It's not all that close in my book. You have two guy in your next 10 that maybe should be in your top 10. Both De Andrade and Eeles have flaws and some upside issues, but they could be your future middle infield ahead of a lot of familiar names, including Keaschall who could play elsewhere. Eeles is better suited to 2B than he is utility, but no one yet is giving him a fair shake. I've said for a while DDA will take over for Correa if his bat can maintain through promotions. Putting them with Schobel is giving up on them; you should put DeBarge with Schobel. Kaelen Culpepper at least proved he's better than low A, something DeBarge and Amick can't say. But I don't really see a lot in him at this point. It's a wait and see for me, and I give zero points for him being a 1st rounder, so I'm hard pressed to do more than put him in the top 15. Brandon Winokur is okay, but I wouldn't label him a good prospect, and I certainly wouldn't put him in the Twins top 10. He struck out 115 times in 410 PAs. That's 28%. There is a bright side, though. He played well overall and had that ugly K rate in his age 19 season at low A. He's decent, as far as this list goes, but things are going to have to change for him to be considered a potential difference-maker, which is really what a top 10 guy should be. I'd rather throw Dasan Hill, who's never thrown a professional pitch, into the 8 spot than have Winokur there. I like Soto enough to be okay with putting him ahead of Morris, even if I wouldn't yet. I also like Lewis and CJ Culpepper, though Culpepper is dealing with arm issues (if you don't fix them, you'll always have them). Prielipp is encouraging. Hill is a good-looking lottery ticket. The bats in the system are pretty bad except for the top three and Eeles, whose EVs are questionable. You can't waste picks on guys like Cavaco, Sabato, DeBarge, N. Miller (all 1st rd picks under Falvey). There is a tiny bit of hope with some recent guys from the DOSL, including especially... Dameury Pena: crushed DOSL, crushed FCL before getting hurt and his numbers sliding, and did this all with a 6.5% K rate that will make him Arraez-like. Despite the drop in numbers after the injury, he still sports an overall .333/.419/.454 slash overall in the rookie league. I would have him in the top 10. Before the injury in FCL his small sample size slash was .339/.457/.462, while after it was .212/.288/.346. He's a "buy" candidate like Arraez should have been. Expect his numbers to be less than those he put up prior to the injury, as he'll bat in the pitcher-friendly FSL this summer. A quick google search did not reveal what the injury was.

If Raya is limited to three or four innings, how will we know whether it's the injury?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Eeles would screw up the whole current pecking order, and Julien would have no chance. They're currently trying to salvage Julien, for themselves or for trade. Eeles likely shows himself at 2B right now to be better than at least one, if not all of the prospect-ish (inc. Lee and Julien), and it basically screws up everything the Twins hope to do. If Eeles continues at AAA to play the way he plays, he'll get his shot this year. But they've got to figure out the guys they've got, especially Julien. Mentioning DeBarge and not Eeles, though, makes no sense. I mean, look at what DeBarge did at low A at age 21. Nothing about it projects to what Eeles did at AAA at age 24.

I really don't understand how Kyle DeBarge gets a mention and Payton Eeles doesn't. What's going on here? Maybe it's in the comments as speculation, I'll do a search. It appears as malfeasance currently, Not only because (lack) of Eeles but also because of DeBarge.

Realizing the chances for Dasan Hill are, like anybody in his situation, not great, I saw him and still see him as easily the Twins best pick in the top 5.

Keaschall good. Only really played 1B and DH'd so much because of the arm injury. Where he fits right now is getting his arm healthy in the minors, conquering AA, and doing the same at AAA. I'd imagine that would take most of the year.

I don't think "plate discipline" is what Julien had in 2023. It's pretty clear that it was passivity that didn't cost him because pitchers were working around the strike zone, testing him out. Julien was broken in the box, but we were so excited for a new toy that most of us didn't recognize it. And he's still broken. Can he be fixed? There's no real reason to think he can in time before other shiny toys grab our attention. There are two really fun ones, one at AA and one at AAA, and neither needs to spend much time where he's at before jumping to the next level. I think the reason Eeles didn't get a spring training invite was to relieve that pressure on Lee and Julien. Eeles could come to camp and blow up everything, and then what to do with those guys?

Reading is one of the worst pitcher's parks in the minor leagues. Never be impressed by a hitter's stats there. On the flip side, a pitcher with success in Reading is more impressive than one in an average park. Castellano could be a gem. Lots of flags, but between his success in two of the last three years and a second, pitching-inclined organization adding to his skillset, I'm very hopeful. Unless he's hurt, I can't imagine him not breaking camp with the Twins.

I'm trying to re-create your in-zone whiff rate, and I'm coming up short. Of the 302 pitches Amick saw, only 117 were in the zone. Whiff rate is defined as swings and misses out of total swings, so I determined Amick swung at 84 pitches (swinging strikes, balls put in play, fouls, and foul tips). That's for sure the denominator. Then I chose swinging strikes (13) and foul tips (1), not sure whether the latter should be included, but it's essentially a swing and miss. That's 14/84 = 16.67% or 13/84 = less, and you have 18%, which I'm sure is not a rounding of either. Just wondering where you came up with 18%. Is there a source you're using outside of the Baseball Savant I'm using? Any help here would be greatly appreciated. Definitely asking, not criticizing. I may well be wrong or using different data.

I would think he'd have an inside track on the 4th spot (but calling it the 5th spot because). Does he deserve the inside track? Of course. Does he deserve the actual spot? Well, not yet, of course, we've got six weeks of spring training.

Morris is a current favorite of mine. And it's a great class with Zebby and Lewis and the seemingly injured Culpepper. I don't have a lot of expectations for CJC until he has TJS or whatever he needs, but I do like him. Jones may be a part of that, but I haven't seen it yet in the stats. This class is what's finally cemented that the Twins have the pitching pipeline Falvey was supposed to supply.

I was hoping this was about Prielipp and not Canterino, who I think is on the edge of done. Just the same, I think Prielipp's forever destiny is in relief. A Ragan's outcome has to be incredibly rare, especially when you throw in the at least perceived caution of the Twins staff. Add to that the dearth of lh relief for the Twins going forward.

Scouting report: Couldn't touch upper end pitchers in college. All his damage done in the league he played in and equivalent. Horrible pick by the Twins. And in the first round. But wait...this could be wrong. A first rounder (33rd) should be able to hold his own in A+ the year he gets drafted, let's see. Oh, that's right. He was placed in low A and not promoted. Why not? .235 avg, .665 ops, 24.3% K rate, The strikeouts portend...ugly. Meanwhile, Tanner Schobel (68th, .242/.670) put up a similar slash but some of that may have been more unlucky (19.2% k rate). Objectively, Schobel looks better at a comparable time, and we know how much of a prospect Schobel is at this point. He was a bad pick much later. Some of the 2024 big draft names were sent to low A and struggled, at least initially. But when the prior is inability to hit top end pitching (in college), it does not bode well. Another example of this, btw, is his Cape Cod league season, where he fizzled with a .633 ops. I honestly think the Twins went to see him in LaFayette, LA, saw him hit vs bad pitching, saw him hustle like a white guy gym rat, and thought they saw another Luke Keaschall, all while forgetting about the context. I hope I'm wrong. I wasn't wrong on Noah Miller, who, btw, did as well at Ft. Myers while being 1.3 years younger there. DeBarge? Not a fan of his play and especially of the Twins drafting him. Baseball America had him at 89 prior to the 2024 draft, MLB.com had him at 67. Just like Miller, he was seriously over-drafted.

Don't have time to read all the comments, but dumping Headrick seems implausible, given some of the shaky 40 man components. Keirsey would have seemed the guy. That makes me think Headrick is unlikely to be recovered enough to compete.

For the price it's probably well worth it. DH and 1B. Would have loved Turner, but maybe they're the same this year.

Keaschall at 1B is interesting, but I don't think he's a bad fielder and should probably be the eventual 2B. He obviously had to played bad-armed positions last season and may well start this year that way, but I think he'll be fine in the end at 2B. We'll see. So much depends on Brooks Lee. As for Lewis, he'll be gone in four years (so should be traded in two). Moving him to 1B will not optimize his trade value.

Not to mention Lewis and Jeffers will not be extended (nor probably should they be anyway) due to Boras. Though I've now gotten confused as to Jeffers' representation (he used to be represented by a guy named Boriss or Borris). Regardless, a catcher in his 30s isn't a foundational piece, he's just at the end of his career. An article like this needs to focus on Keaschall. He's really the one without questions. Jenkins, too, but again...Boras. EmRod is more likely to be a bust than average player, as is any other hitter not named Jenkins, Keaschall, and actually Eeles if he hits the ball hard enough. I'm not opposed to extending a pitcher, but the problem comes when the guy you decided to give 30MM a year to three years earlies can't even pitch when that bill's due. If you're willing to eat that and still put together a good staff. So, none. The topic is not a bad one, but again, the subjects make no sense, really.

Well, Keaschall isn't going to be, either, but they've invited him, injury and all. I don't think it's a big deal, but it would be nice to know the Eeles rationale. Eeles never had a chance of starting at 2B. He's got three years of non-40 left, and they're going to make sure he accomplishes everything in AAA at every position. It doesn't explain Keachall, though. My guess is that Eeles plays many, many end-of-ST games anyway. I suppose they can more closely evaluate Keaschall's arm by having him with the big league team for ST, at least initially. I'll bet bragging points that Eeles plays in more MLB ST games than Keaschall. Won't bet more innings, though!

Nobody but some Twins fans think he'll be a good prospect, so he's never going to be a major part of a trade. If X and Rosario are the return for a player the Twins acquire, know that the other team wanted X. The OP headline is somewhat appropriate because hopefully his name won't come up again if he does poorly. Problem is, especially with the band boxes in Wichita and St. Paul, fans and some writers will ignore the predictive stats and only see the ones that appear positive, like they've done with Yunior Severino. As for Rooker (and I'll add Wallner), they're somewhat outliers, and I've tried to find the rationale for why their K rates haven't led to MLB failure. We don't have all the stats for every minor league, but I think it's sort of an art to identifying these guys. I most certainly didn't with Rooker, but, independently, I did identify Wallner as someone who could have MLB success (fingers still crossed). Guys with massive power appear to simply take more chances than a more normal player. While spending a couple years analyzing Wallner, there was at least anecdotal evidence that he truly changed his approach (successfully) for important ABs. That is, his bad predictors, including chase rate and the overriding K rate, weren't all that bad when he concentrated on not chasing, not K-ing. Note, too, that Rooker is just finishing up his prime years while Wallner is entering his. When their bats slow down, who knows? We won't know until he plays in AAA what Rosario's exit velocities are, but I'm pretty sure they don't compare to those two guys. I would love for him to have trade value, but I really don't think he does. If he can somehow both increase his power to Cedar Rapids levels while reducing his K rate to 25%, he'll be worth a spot in the 10-20 range next year, unlike this year where I think everybody made a pretty big mistake wherever they've put him.

Headline question has been my question. Basically, Twins need to sign a couple corner guys now and see if they can trade Julien, Paddack, and the catcher. A lot to do still.

It would take extraordinary circumstances for him to have a chance of making the team out of spring training. He doesn't have to be put on the 40 until before the 2028 season. (Not that that is how it will go) Unless there are multiple injuries, no chance he starts the season in MLB. I'm a big fan of the guy (thus far) and think he should be a top 10 prospect. But whatever numbers make your pupils dilate, keep in mind there are reasons why nobody is putting him in the top 20. They might be wrong, but we can't discount the reasons for this unless we understand them.

He's not going to have a lot of OBP if he doesn't punish pitches in the zone. OBP is one of the most misleading minor league statistics.

Really the only concern is his exit velocity, which averaged 86.9 at AAA last season. I'm not sure of his max or EV90, but I doubt they defy his average EV. You really want the average to be at 90 in AAA, but it doesn't have to be. As is he should be decent this year. For reference, Austin Martin's avg EV at AAA was 86.4. (EVs for other levels than AAA are incomplete). K rate, age vs league, and exit velocity/barrels are about all you need to piece together how good a prospect will be (barrels is learned, to an extent). The problem with projecting Eeles is that, for a true prospect, he started even AAA too old, so the projection is tougher. I'd still put him in the top 10 for the Twins, maybe as high as 5 or 6, after Morris and depending on whether you include Zebby, but I could see arguments for put Lewis in front of him. Soto, too, if you really value upside over 50th %ile.

The $20 million you mention. Not sure that's right or even close, but it does seem they're ready to spend more than we all thought. I've sort of imagined this scenario: "Hello, potential buyer in the pool of what's basically guaranteeing us a way out of our self-created mess, what do you think if we added X million to payroll to start the season?" Enough shrugs from 90%-guaranteed buyers, and you realize you were saving a little money for no real reason. That is, I think this is a sign they know the sale is coming from one or another.