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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    2.5 prospects, at least until CJ Culpepper and similar get there. I think he's got arm problems they're trying to ignore, surgically. Meanwhile we can (hopefully) watch Jenkins, Prielipp, and see if Olivar might be anything. Rosario (not a real prospect in my book) will hit well there when he's not striking out. It's not the most exciting roster, but it might be more interesting to watch than Cedar Rapids. CR has Bengard, Soto, De Andrade, and a bunch of overrated recent draftees. It might be interesting for a while. Doncon is starting there. I think we'll see DeBarge and Amick for the poor choices they were. K. Culpepper will have a chance to show if he might be something. But all three are too old to not do well as high draft choices
  2. twinstalker
    Game theory. Lack thereof. The Twins seem horrible at it.
  3. twinstalker
    That's why he was free.
  4. twinstalker
    Not shocking at all, since the hitters are never prepared for the start of the season and not that good to begin with. Plus predictable injuries with Julien and Gaspar as replacements. There's something wrong with the Fort Myers culture. What it is, I don't know, but it has seemed like a vacation in past years. This year it seems more a vacation where you don't get to do everything you want, but still a vacation. My prediction a week or so ago of a bad offense to start the season wasn't exactly prescient. More...obvious.
  5. twinstalker
    The title question in no way pertains to Dobnak's situation. He's getting paid, and the Twins are "risking" losing him. The question is more about shuttling 40-man guys with options left, especially when they get shuttled after one day of service (and hence, only one day's pay, maybe $4000). Can you imagine getting paid three million to get "abused" this way? That's Dobnak's situation. This has probably been addressed by other comments and maybe even in the article I skimmed.
  6. twinstalker
    Meh prospect, maybe slightly better than meh, but pretty close. All you need to know is he struck out 28% of the time. Some mitigating factors, but to be a truly good prospect, he'd have to be at about 65% that or have Wallner power that adds the extra strikeouts via swinging for the fences. So I don't know what you're expecting here. He's good enough to climb, but I wouldn't look at his slashline, which is going to improve just with the ballparks. The only thing that matters is his K-rate. He'll likely make it to the bigs at some point, but he won't do it with the promise of a Brooks Lee, who in my book is a decent starting infielder, not top half at whatever position. Winokur is a rh Stahoviak at best.
  7. twinstalker
    I don't know what it means to "overtake" or if it matters. Foremost, Zebby has been the better prospect for a year now. Second, there are reasons to leave Zebby down at AAA for a good chunk of time this year, so a healthy Festa will get the call first unless the actual day plays into it. Zebby has to succeed at AAA for a period of time before he gets a call-up. He wasn't ready for the majors last year, and so they won't skip AAA this year as they mostly needed to last year.
  8. twinstalker
    Jeffers has been a good player. You ride him out and let him go. Because catchers 30+ not only often can't catch anymore, they rarely can ever hit. And Jeffers is hit and miss in his prime. What a foolish thing to do with your money. Maybe you get a drafting department that understands how to find hitting talent. Maybe you get a development staff that understands how to develop hitting.
  9. twinstalker
    Why would Raya be on this staff and where is Lewis? That seems very strange. Raya clearly needs AA work and Lewis is clearly ready for AAA. Is he hurt?
  10. twinstalker
    You clearly haven't seen the pitching the White Sox are putting together.
  11. twinstalker
    Nearly 50% are insane. The hitting is so, so bad. The pitching, while a strength, is overrated in the pen. These five names alone make you wonder if you're watching a major league team: Dobnak, Keirsey, Topa, Gasper, Julien. With Twins bats never being ready for the regular season, there's a decent chance this is not only bad but boring. I subscribed monthly, just in case. That all said, Go Twins!
  12. twinstalker
    When Chris Paddack was a prospect post his first TJS, I really thought he'd be a star, and he started out that way. Then he got hurt again, obviously needing another TJS, the Twins traded for him anyway(!), and he soon had the second TJS. It's been a mess. There was something high-MLB there, though. I doubt we're teased by it again. The best thing that could happen is for him to make seven great starts, and the Twins trade him. Of course, nobody would be happy with that scenario. But that should be the strategy. There are four guys at AAA who would probably pitch as well or better than what Paddack would do the rest of the season after that. At least I think Lewis will start at AAA! But the Twins need to act fast if Paddack is pitching well through May.
  13. twinstalker
    Fubo is partially owned by Comcast. I think they're in tandem.
  14. twinstalker
    Yeah, that's not what Fangraphs does. It's what BP does. My eye test says we have a very talented guy who can't keep from getting wounded, just like every other potential star we've had. Every. One. Starting in 2004. Jenkins has been injured about 5 times in the last four years, including HS. EmRod is constantly hurt. And Luke Keaschall, just like Alex Kirilloff, just started his major injury cycle. Buxton, Sano, Lewis, Mauer, Morneau. And Correa as a non-Twins origin guy. Right now I see Jenkins as a talented time bomb, just like Buxton, just like Lewis. Honestly, I don't know why a ranking list wouldn't account for an abundance of injuries in their rankings.
  15. twinstalker
    Also, Fangraphs relies more on their MLEs, and without power so far, the MLEs will rank a number of guys ahead of him. They call their projection system Steamer, and it's quite a bit lower for Jenkins than ZIPS or OOPSY. So...that's the deal. They tend not to imagine things as a fan would. What that often ends up giving you is a guy or two rated very highly that most of the world is pretty sure is not a great prospect in terms of upside. One guy ahead of Jenkins who you do not expect to be in the conversation is C Drake Baldwin at #11. Their model likes catchers, unless you've heard of Alfredo Duno before they ranked him 29. Note too they have Max Clark, Jenkins' main competition for best 2023 HSer, at 34, and he's ranked a lot higher on all the other lists, too.
  16. twinstalker
    This isn't true at all. Well, the part about delaying his season probably is, but the other part isn't. It's possible. That's all. And really, *it's possible that his oblique, combined with unknown or undetermined factors prevented his previous dominance.* That's probably a true statement, give the word "possible." I could argue, though, that the oblique had no effect whatsoever and quantify that. Your statement, though, is definitive. So if his velocity is down still this year to at least some extent, do we blame it on last year's oblique again?
  17. twinstalker
    Pull-happy. It's a negative thing. Now it's a positive thing? I don't really think so. What's needed is a metric that's a measure of the rate at which a batted ball is hit in the air over the first random fence it finds. The higher the rate the better. Can I trademark this?
  18. twinstalker
    I'm not a big Brooks Lee fan, but putting him in the same sentence with Julien is ridiculous. Lee is a very good fielder, Lee is able to play SS and the two positions surrounding it. Lee struck out in the minors 40% less than Julien. The minors. That translates to a much, much better MLB hitter. All the Julien people were so misguided from the beginning. Lee at worst is going to be a helpful piece...if he's not injured all the time. He'll hit okay, and he'll field where you need him. My initial statement on Lee is that he'd be a high second division infielder (think 16th to 20th best starter at his position of the 30 team). That was lower than everybody wanted to believe, but now it's moving the other direction, where it's a bit higher than a lot are beieving. That's still his profile. I also threw in that he might make an all-star team one day. I'll never understand why every player on every team we cheer for has to project great at the beginning. Part of the disappointment so many feel is the totally incorrect projection they throw on these prospects without really understanding what contributes to success. Edouard Julien had a chance, but it was a really small chance that depended on him totally revamping his approach, because his minor league stats shouted MLB pitchers are going to kill him. Brooks Lee is going to be fine, a decent player, a starter. His minor league stats shout that. Staying healthy is necessary, though.
  19. twinstalker
    2B Eeles SS De Andrade 3B Lee Doesn't seem that menacing (future = 3 yrs from now). I do think this is a distinct possibility, and I might like Eeles and DDA more than Lee, sort of like people like the backup QBs. You can say Eeles will be utility, but I don't know that he can actually play anywhere but 2B. Maybe some LF, but if that's what you call utility, you'll call anything utility. He might be good enough to play, and if you play him, it will have to be at 2B. Lee has a lot of convincing to do. I never thought his bat would be an issue, but I don't think that's the default anymore. His range of outcomes is wide right now.
  20. twinstalker
    I'm going to suggest he back off in his last start.
  21. twinstalker
    I just hope he's giving advice about this to Jenkins and EmRod. They need to learn from the best.
  22. twinstalker
    Do they? It seems pretty much like the rest of the league, to be generous. Can you imagine the disdain you'd have for Vazquez if he were on a different team? His OPS was .575 last year, 105 points less than the average catcher. He threw out runners 27% less effectively than the average AL catcher. We've all been told he's not a good framer. And yet, unlike other teams, we split our catching innings and ABs about 50/50, meaning we give our worse catcher far more playing time, dropping the duo even further down.
  23. twinstalker
    He'd have to put a spell on the pitchers, because it wasn't a fluke that he suddenly got bad. Pitchers learned to pitch him. If you strike out at 25-30% without a huge power tool in the minors, what do you think major league pitchers are going to do to you?
  24. twinstalker
    I'm not really sure about this. I knew Royce Lewis is the 3B, and I know Miranda is the primary backup option there, especially since France was signed. I don't think this affects Lee at all. Even his backing up Correa isn't a surprise. If Correa goes down and is IL'd, Lee is the best SS the Twins have (to call up or, like you imply, to move over). Lee isn't a utility guy. He's a 2B now, he's a SS when Correa goes down. The need for him at 3B will be rare. BUT, you'd think they'd give Castro a good number of reps at SS if Lee is demoted. My guess is he'll get them the last week if the decision is made to send Lee down.
  25. twinstalker
    Exactly what would that haul be? Their farm is junk right now, their consistently overhyped prospects are failing now before they can trade them. And your metric (40% win-rate) is awesome, it's what I use, too, but it leads me to wonder: why would the Yankees want someone who only wins 40% of his games when they can go out and get someone who wins 50% of his games. Help me out here.
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