twinstalker

1970. As far as I knew at the time, the only Twins batting order ever was Tovar, Carew, Oliva, Killebrew, Reese, Allison, Cardenas, Mitterwald, pitcher The Twins were a great team managed by Bill Rigney. The lineup above was likely a combination of what I saw plus what my older brother and older friends told me, as Carew was hurt and Allison was done, both MOSTLY, in 1970. But I always remembered that lineup in my mind. I doubt it ever was an actual lineup due to platooning and the limited PT for Carew and Allison that year. Reese was highly thought of and talked about in 1970, likely due to his 1969 season, which I don't have direct memory of. But I thought of him as an important piece at the time, for what little I knew. He didn't ever seem to do anything the next couple of years, which matches the description above. I remember he always seemed to strike out a lot in important, often game-ending, situations. In 1973 he was gone, and while I vacationed without a newspaper that summer, I would listen to games when I could, but the team was meh except for Carew and Blyleven. When I got back home in August, Reese had magically appeared again in the box scores. To a young kid who knew just enough, this was simply weird. I always thought back then that Reese had been a part of the '65 team and basically had always played along side of Oliva, Killebrew, and Allison, and it wasn't until I moved to Minnesota as a teen that I would more easily place him in and knew his role in the team's lineup and the proper years. Unfortunately, I have no fond memories of Rich Reese, other than he was a part of that great 1970 team that got destroyed (again) by the Orioles. My memories are mostly of lying in bed with the radio on, hoping he could get the hit to tie the game, only to be disappointed and frustrated that he struck out to end the game. It probably happened once, and it was probably against Nolan Ryan in 1972, but that's what I remember. Tangent: By the way, in 1970 I did not understand that Billy Martin had managed the Twins the year before. I knew they'd won the West, though. I figured Rigney had been manager. I mean, even as a tiny kid, I figured the Twins wouldn't get rid of their division-winning manager. It wasn't until, I think, 1972 that Billy was the back in the playoffs with Detroit and I heard on the TV that he managed the Twins in the 1969 season. I may have heard it somewhere before, but I didn't connect it until then who he ever was. I seem to remember being surprised it was the same Billy Martin, who I definitely knew in 1972. Tangent part deux: I will mention that Detroit rh hitter Al Kaline survived the Billy Martin years despite Billy platooning him after Kaline posted a .294/.416/.462 slash in 501 PAs Billy's first year (1971) in Detroit. He had 314 PAs in 1972 and 347 PAs in 1973. After Billy was fired, Kaline's last year in 1974 saw him get 630 PAs to barely reach 3000 hits. I got these stats as I looked up to see how many years Martin and Kaline crossed, and it was all of Martin's three years in Detroit. So thanks for trying to win by sabotaging Kaline's quest for 3000, Billy. Priorities, geesh.

I don't know if I'd use the word "flipped."

This is very different from the Sasaki situation, unless Reyes is getting Atlanta's full cap. This seems more of a "let's set our least promising prospect who set to sign for any real money free." Or we should hope. Reyes signed for $1.8 of their $6.2 million allotment.

I hear Abe Froman is interested in the Ishbias' 10% share of the White Sox.

Holy crap, Helman is on the 40. So is Kiersey. Along with Gasper, I would almost bet all three get DFA'd.

Juan Soto is not a 99th percentile comp for EmRod. It's an impossibility. The predictive stats don't allow for it. They're in different worlds. Soto struck out at an approx 13% rate as a 17 yr old in rookie ball, while EmRod struck out at a 36% rate as an 18 year old. EmRod was often passive. Soto was aggressive. Soto's walk rate in the minors has more to do with pitchers not wanting to pitch to him. Jenkins isn't Soto in best case scenario, either, but he's much closer. Anyway, my argument is petty because you don't really mean 99th percentile. You basically say it's unreachable. You might as well make Soto the out of this world comp for any prospect. Schwarber is an interesting ceiling comp for EmRod, one being a catcher, the other being a CF, and both ending up in the corner OF, probably. I tried to find issues with the Ian Happ comp, but it's not bad as a 50th percentile. I will argue with the Gallo floor. If EmRod doesn't make contact (like Gallo), he won't be an all-star and have a slug over .500 for his first couple thousand plate appearance. Gallo was a heckuva player for four years. EmRod isn't guaranteed that sort of production, but I don't have a name off the top of my head who would be a good floor.

Probably the Twins hitting development is just not good. But I believe the Twins don't have a clue what to look for in a hitter. They stumble on an Arraez or Keaschall every once in a while, but for the most part they don't value low strikeout rates, guys that don't chase, who recognize breaking balls. Guys who eventually have great ABs at the MLB level and are really hard outs for the best pitchers. Arraez is someone like that. We've seen glimpses of Correa being that for short periods (month, two months). I think Keaschall and maybe Eeles will provide that. This is hazy anecdotal, but I keep hearing Twins hitters talk about their development mostly as getting their pitch to hit, and it seems Twins hitters are being taught to guess when that pitch is coming. Forever. The Yankees can buy anyone they want, but they value hitters who are able to recognize pitches. Be able to lay off balls, be able to fight off strikes that aren't the meatballs they'll soon be served up by the Twins pitchers. They develop that, too. Getting a hitter like Sano is great if he can develop those things on his own. He couldn't, and the Twins needed to recognize that so that they could deal his prodigious power at the appropriate time. If you can't develop it, you need to trade it before it becomes obvious at the MLB level.

Jeffers. We need to trade our only catcher who can hit. It's a bonus he's a better defensive catcher than Vazquez, and we certainly don't deserve that. How else can we make the Twins worse? Is that the goal? If Cartaya were anything at all, the Dodgers wouldn't have let him go, or a team would have given something for him. So how does he affect anything? The Twins need a third catcher when they trade Vazquez. If they don't trade Vazquez because they suddenly think they have money, I'd guess Cartaya or Camargo gets DFA'd. Jeffers is a future trade chip when the Twins are bad and he is good, which is possible midseason and would be optimal timing on return if the Twins aren't winning.

If Winokur had three less strikeouts in 2023 or 1-2 more walks, you'd find his rates didn't change at all. His 2023 numbers can't be used to determined whether he improved or didn't. Look how the slg pct dipped in 2024. Well, it's not real, it's that he hit one more homer in 2023 than what would have been a similar rate to what he hit them in 2024. So, you need to take Winokur's numbers in aggregate or, better yet, ignore rookie league, so let's just use low A. Foremost, he's of true prospect age. He isn't too old for his level, he's about right for a hitter to be considered a prospect. He was 19, but note age 20 is usually too old at low A to be considered a hitting prospect of consequence unless there are unusual circumstances. Winokur's circumstances are not unusual. His tools are normal for a decent prospect, his development straightforward (no major injuries, e.g.). If he had to repeat the level, most likely you could take him off your prospect list. He won't repeat the level, so that's good. He'll be age 20 at high A It's also good that his ho-hum numbers occurred in probably the toughest hitter's league. Ballparks, humidity, and maybe pitchers being more advanced early on (many are much older) are trademarks of the FSL or low A overall. He's shown the ability to hit for power, with 36 xbh in 362 ABs. He's also shown his ceiling is that of a regular, with plenty of doubt that he'll make it. His k rate of 28%, given the lack of any star attributes, portends maybe a short-side OF platoon as his most likely outcome. With a few exceptions, a K rate in the early minors of 25%+ is indicative of a platoon/pinch hitter, assuming the small chance he can carve out a role at all.. 20-25% is a better player, maybe a regular, 15-20% suggests a good player, possible all-star, and under 15% a real star, The categorizations are of course not firm, and the K rate needs to be combined with other factors, most commonly hitting peripherals (e.g. barrels, exit velocity, chase rate, raw power), and age vs level. There's a reason why Emmanuel Rodriguez is a top 5 prospect in the Twins system and Winokur should be listed closer to 20. Winokur is a fine minor leaguer. It's possible he discovers something and doesn't chase or miss as much going forward. The K rate is the important stat to look at this year. If he brings it down to 22%, he's got a legit shot. Note that the ballparks get easier, especially starting with AA in the Twins system, so his surface level hitting stats can fool you going forward. Many have been fooled by Yunior Severino's "hitting prowess," and Winokur is in danger of following in those footsteps unless he drastically reduces his K rate, maintains his power and peripherals, and does it all at good age vs level junctures.

That is one of the most (we'll say incredible) statements I've ever read. I don't think teams are all that anxious to dump cheap, talented assets. And given that we know he's cheap...

Define "trade." Guessing it's trading his salary for nothing that is the hope. Same with Vazquez.

"Swing and miss" doesn't go away or get better, really. Who cares how far you can hit the ball if you can't hit it.

Huh, thought he was a Boras guy. Might be a Borris guy.

I think Seattle is...

Had not heard that, thanks.

I mean, no offense to anyone including Terry, he was a really bad pitcher. I mean, you can't get much worse. We make fun of Terry's plight to this day. Well, not Terry, but our friend who insisted Felton was really a good pitcher. He would repeat the hype that was given to the TV and radio announcers, even though it was extremely obvious he couldn't navigate his way through a start. The optimism would come about when he'd get in the game with the Twins behind and hold the other team scoreless the rest of the way. It was a considerably different dynamic than starting, especially back then.

In my best Cameron Frye voice: Mickey Gasper, you're my hero.

Handling advanced pitching is also known as being a good prospect. If that's your issue, it's like saying the key to doing well on an IQ test is being smart. I'm not saying KC won't make it to the majors, but I see nothing yet that makes me think he'll be a good prospect. It's good that he did well in A ball...that just gets him to the ladder, he's not climbing it. Again, a superstar hitter will do well in A at age 18, an all-star at age 19, a potential regular at age 20, and at age 21, well, Culpepper hasn't shown anything at all really. The inability to do anything in the SSS at A+ says a lot more about him than doing well at A. When Nick Gordon was 21, he slashed .270/.341/.409 at AA, and I thought his lack of power combined with a AA K rate of 23% basically made him a pretty meh prospect, but thus far KC is much worse. Will he be better than Gordon? Possibly, and that says nothing. The only thing I agree with is that he and Raya are close to the same ranking, but I have them both around 20 or worse.

I don't think it's possible to replace Kepler in the clean-up spot.

Been a while since I've seen something other than non-sensical click-bait topics (my suggestion would be to have writers write about relevant, sensible topics and leave the craziness to readers' forums, see Canis Hoopus), but this has been a relevant topic, and Cody takes a sensible, if not fully flushed out, approach to it. One thing he glosses over is the the prospect return for Correa's contract, suggesting it will be a big return. I doubt anyone will give anything really good for Correa and his $33 million a year when SF and the NYM have been proven right after withdrawing their offers to him. I'm guessing the first reaction to that statement is that they haven't been proven right at all (!), but every other team in MLB has watched Correa be substantially injured in the very first two years of his contract. And, frankly, the injury is very possibly directly connected to his ankle issue. No one is going to give a quality prospect return for an injured player with a huge contract. So the lack of return is the real reason to not trade Correa for prospects, because the Twins have a shortstop, 2B, 3B already on the 25, and they have Eeles and Keaschall soon to help (I'm leaving Julien out of this, he might be toast). They should trade Correa for a great prospect if they can, but they can't, I'm sure. Not to mention his no-trade control that could come into play.

The year before Zebby exploded he had 1.3 BB/9 at A and A+ without injury. The walk rate and increased velocity combined with health is what got him to the majors. I see nothing similar from these three guys, especially because they're all injured in their own way. They'll be lucky to make it through the year, much less make it to the majors.

Why would the Twins extend an injured player? I haven't understood why or how people think a problem like his is simply going to disappear. My feeling is it either reappears or creates other issues. Also, it's pretty clear this front office believe pitching is fungible. They extended Pablo, but they sort of had to, plus they made a big trade for him relatively close to his free agency. I think the general plan is to replace expensive pitching with that in the pipeline. If Ryan has three more years left, and the Twins are developing pitching like they seem to be, I don't see this being a thing.

Yuck. I wouldn't give up the next eight years of Keaschall for a perpetually injured Luzardo. Keaschall is a necessary piece to lineup if the Twins have any chance for good hitting in the near future. The Twins send up a lineup of guys who struck out at too high a rate in the minors and expect them suddenly to have good ABs against MLB pitchers. The Twins rarely select good hitters in the draft (I think the most recent draft was a waste of its first three picks, but the draft was bad overall). If one of them comes through (and it would be K. Culpepper), I'll be surprised. But they killed it in 2023 with Jenkins and Keaschall and may have signed a real good follow-up in Eeles. These are the guys who can be extremely tough outs, and you are best to leave them out of trade deals for guys injured and nearing FA.

Articles and comments on this site simply ignore this, even though it's almost the only thing that matters. Beyond that and for players who actually could be locked up, foremost why would you give someone a six-year deal? Emmanuel Rodriguez stands a good chance at flaming out with his minors strikeout rate. Tell me why you give him a deal when you have control over him anyway? Afraid of paying too much for that last arbitration year? That's silly. The Twins, if they are ever lucky enough to have a Jackson Chourio who isn't a Boras client might have reason to sign him for as long as possible, but six years hardly makes sense. Another note: even if Jenkins weren't represented by Boras, he's still not in the class of players who have been signed to the extra long, big contracts (Chourio, Franco). Those guys were just about guaranteed superstars, though one of them will never get his money. But Jenkins will never sign a "good for team" contract that delays free agency, and E. Rodriguez is very possibly a flameout candidate. This topic makes no sense, imo. It might make sense to identify non-Boras guys and sign them to post-FA contracts, but I have zero confidence in the front office to identify good hitters or make strong offers at the right time even if they do. My take is that while I wouldn't sign EmRod to an 8 yr contract because we have no idea whether he'll be good or not, I would sign Luke Keaschall to an 8 yr contract on the eve of his major league debut. The cost won't be much, and he'll be worth it. That's because Keaschall is a better prospect. He doesn't strike out in the minors at nearly the rate Rodriguez does. MLB pitchers might get torched by EmRod initially, but they'll figure out how to get him out, just like they did Julien. If EmRod has two full years of great production, sign him up for two past FA, but I think we'll hear the phrase "sophomore slump" as if it has nothing to do with the issues Rodriguez has now.

Wow. First, as I've said before, it makes so little sense to get in bed with Boras, but it's too late for that. Lewis' value now lies in trade, and it's not a lot of value unless he improves a lot. He's shown enough that Boras won't let him sign for anything close to reasonable. If he starts out like he's done before, trade, trade, trade. Is the front office smart enough to make a good deal? I"m not sure.