twinstalker

You clearly haven't seen the pitching the White Sox are putting together.

Nearly 50% are insane. The hitting is so, so bad. The pitching, while a strength, is overrated in the pen. These five names alone make you wonder if you're watching a major league team: Dobnak, Keirsey, Topa, Gasper, Julien. With Twins bats never being ready for the regular season, there's a decent chance this is not only bad but boring. I subscribed monthly, just in case. That all said, Go Twins!

When Chris Paddack was a prospect post his first TJS, I really thought he'd be a star, and he started out that way. Then he got hurt again, obviously needing another TJS, the Twins traded for him anyway(!), and he soon had the second TJS. It's been a mess. There was something high-MLB there, though. I doubt we're teased by it again. The best thing that could happen is for him to make seven great starts, and the Twins trade him. Of course, nobody would be happy with that scenario. But that should be the strategy. There are four guys at AAA who would probably pitch as well or better than what Paddack would do the rest of the season after that. At least I think Lewis will start at AAA! But the Twins need to act fast if Paddack is pitching well through May.

Fubo is partially owned by Comcast. I think they're in tandem.

Yeah, that's not what Fangraphs does. It's what BP does. My eye test says we have a very talented guy who can't keep from getting wounded, just like every other potential star we've had. Every. One. Starting in 2004. Jenkins has been injured about 5 times in the last four years, including HS. EmRod is constantly hurt. And Luke Keaschall, just like Alex Kirilloff, just started his major injury cycle. Buxton, Sano, Lewis, Mauer, Morneau. And Correa as a non-Twins origin guy. Right now I see Jenkins as a talented time bomb, just like Buxton, just like Lewis. Honestly, I don't know why a ranking list wouldn't account for an abundance of injuries in their rankings.

Also, Fangraphs relies more on their MLEs, and without power so far, the MLEs will rank a number of guys ahead of him. They call their projection system Steamer, and it's quite a bit lower for Jenkins than ZIPS or OOPSY. So...that's the deal. They tend not to imagine things as a fan would. What that often ends up giving you is a guy or two rated very highly that most of the world is pretty sure is not a great prospect in terms of upside. One guy ahead of Jenkins who you do not expect to be in the conversation is C Drake Baldwin at #11. Their model likes catchers, unless you've heard of Alfredo Duno before they ranked him 29. Note too they have Max Clark, Jenkins' main competition for best 2023 HSer, at 34, and he's ranked a lot higher on all the other lists, too.

This isn't true at all. Well, the part about delaying his season probably is, but the other part isn't. It's possible. That's all. And really, *it's possible that his oblique, combined with unknown or undetermined factors prevented his previous dominance.* That's probably a true statement, give the word "possible." I could argue, though, that the oblique had no effect whatsoever and quantify that. Your statement, though, is definitive. So if his velocity is down still this year to at least some extent, do we blame it on last year's oblique again?

Pull-happy. It's a negative thing. Now it's a positive thing? I don't really think so. What's needed is a metric that's a measure of the rate at which a batted ball is hit in the air over the first random fence it finds. The higher the rate the better. Can I trademark this?

I'm not a big Brooks Lee fan, but putting him in the same sentence with Julien is ridiculous. Lee is a very good fielder, Lee is able to play SS and the two positions surrounding it. Lee struck out in the minors 40% less than Julien. The minors. That translates to a much, much better MLB hitter. All the Julien people were so misguided from the beginning. Lee at worst is going to be a helpful piece...if he's not injured all the time. He'll hit okay, and he'll field where you need him. My initial statement on Lee is that he'd be a high second division infielder (think 16th to 20th best starter at his position of the 30 team). That was lower than everybody wanted to believe, but now it's moving the other direction, where it's a bit higher than a lot are beieving. That's still his profile. I also threw in that he might make an all-star team one day. I'll never understand why every player on every team we cheer for has to project great at the beginning. Part of the disappointment so many feel is the totally incorrect projection they throw on these prospects without really understanding what contributes to success. Edouard Julien had a chance, but it was a really small chance that depended on him totally revamping his approach, because his minor league stats shouted MLB pitchers are going to kill him. Brooks Lee is going to be fine, a decent player, a starter. His minor league stats shout that. Staying healthy is necessary, though.

2B Eeles SS De Andrade 3B Lee Doesn't seem that menacing (future = 3 yrs from now). I do think this is a distinct possibility, and I might like Eeles and DDA more than Lee, sort of like people like the backup QBs. You can say Eeles will be utility, but I don't know that he can actually play anywhere but 2B. Maybe some LF, but if that's what you call utility, you'll call anything utility. He might be good enough to play, and if you play him, it will have to be at 2B. Lee has a lot of convincing to do. I never thought his bat would be an issue, but I don't think that's the default anymore. His range of outcomes is wide right now.

I'm going to suggest he back off in his last start.

I just hope he's giving advice about this to Jenkins and EmRod. They need to learn from the best.

Do they? It seems pretty much like the rest of the league, to be generous. Can you imagine the disdain you'd have for Vazquez if he were on a different team? His OPS was .575 last year, 105 points less than the average catcher. He threw out runners 27% less effectively than the average AL catcher. We've all been told he's not a good framer. And yet, unlike other teams, we split our catching innings and ABs about 50/50, meaning we give our worse catcher far more playing time, dropping the duo even further down.

He'd have to put a spell on the pitchers, because it wasn't a fluke that he suddenly got bad. Pitchers learned to pitch him. If you strike out at 25-30% without a huge power tool in the minors, what do you think major league pitchers are going to do to you?

I'm not really sure about this. I knew Royce Lewis is the 3B, and I know Miranda is the primary backup option there, especially since France was signed. I don't think this affects Lee at all. Even his backing up Correa isn't a surprise. If Correa goes down and is IL'd, Lee is the best SS the Twins have (to call up or, like you imply, to move over). Lee isn't a utility guy. He's a 2B now, he's a SS when Correa goes down. The need for him at 3B will be rare. BUT, you'd think they'd give Castro a good number of reps at SS if Lee is demoted. My guess is he'll get them the last week if the decision is made to send Lee down.

Exactly what would that haul be? Their farm is junk right now, their consistently overhyped prospects are failing now before they can trade them. And your metric (40% win-rate) is awesome, it's what I use, too, but it leads me to wonder: why would the Yankees want someone who only wins 40% of his games when they can go out and get someone who wins 50% of his games. Help me out here.

Guessing Carney Lansford...now to read the comments to see if I'm right. A little worried it's later in Puck's career but can't remember who hit and basically didn't walk. There was someone I thought who was Puck's contemporary. Well, yeah, I guess I should of thought of him...the answer.

A lot better, Seth. Criticisms: Raya at 6. Still waiting for somebody to tell me why. All I know is that he's been hurt, he's been mediocre, and he doesn't pitch very long. DeBarge at 13. Why? With all the mistakes this FO has made with draft picks, why does his draft position get him anywhere close to the top 10? Because I know you're not ranking him on his low A stats. There's nothing I've seen or heard that makes him a top 20 or 25 guy. Luke Keaschall should be #2. It's not all that close in my book. You have two guy in your next 10 that maybe should be in your top 10. Both De Andrade and Eeles have flaws and some upside issues, but they could be your future middle infield ahead of a lot of familiar names, including Keaschall who could play elsewhere. Eeles is better suited to 2B than he is utility, but no one yet is giving him a fair shake. I've said for a while DDA will take over for Correa if his bat can maintain through promotions. Putting them with Schobel is giving up on them; you should put DeBarge with Schobel. Kaelen Culpepper at least proved he's better than low A, something DeBarge and Amick can't say. But I don't really see a lot in him at this point. It's a wait and see for me, and I give zero points for him being a 1st rounder, so I'm hard pressed to do more than put him in the top 15. Brandon Winokur is okay, but I wouldn't label him a good prospect, and I certainly wouldn't put him in the Twins top 10. He struck out 115 times in 410 PAs. That's 28%. There is a bright side, though. He played well overall and had that ugly K rate in his age 19 season at low A. He's decent, as far as this list goes, but things are going to have to change for him to be considered a potential difference-maker, which is really what a top 10 guy should be. I'd rather throw Dasan Hill, who's never thrown a professional pitch, into the 8 spot than have Winokur there. I like Soto enough to be okay with putting him ahead of Morris, even if I wouldn't yet. I also like Lewis and CJ Culpepper, though Culpepper is dealing with arm issues (if you don't fix them, you'll always have them). Prielipp is encouraging. Hill is a good-looking lottery ticket. The bats in the system are pretty bad except for the top three and Eeles, whose EVs are questionable. You can't waste picks on guys like Cavaco, Sabato, DeBarge, N. Miller (all 1st rd picks under Falvey). There is a tiny bit of hope with some recent guys from the DOSL, including especially... Dameury Pena: crushed DOSL, crushed FCL before getting hurt and his numbers sliding, and did this all with a 6.5% K rate that will make him Arraez-like. Despite the drop in numbers after the injury, he still sports an overall .333/.419/.454 slash overall in the rookie league. I would have him in the top 10. Before the injury in FCL his small sample size slash was .339/.457/.462, while after it was .212/.288/.346. He's a "buy" candidate like Arraez should have been. Expect his numbers to be less than those he put up prior to the injury, as he'll bat in the pitcher-friendly FSL this summer. A quick google search did not reveal what the injury was.

If Raya is limited to three or four innings, how will we know whether it's the injury?

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Eeles would screw up the whole current pecking order, and Julien would have no chance. They're currently trying to salvage Julien, for themselves or for trade. Eeles likely shows himself at 2B right now to be better than at least one, if not all of the prospect-ish (inc. Lee and Julien), and it basically screws up everything the Twins hope to do. If Eeles continues at AAA to play the way he plays, he'll get his shot this year. But they've got to figure out the guys they've got, especially Julien. Mentioning DeBarge and not Eeles, though, makes no sense. I mean, look at what DeBarge did at low A at age 21. Nothing about it projects to what Eeles did at AAA at age 24.

I really don't understand how Kyle DeBarge gets a mention and Payton Eeles doesn't. What's going on here? Maybe it's in the comments as speculation, I'll do a search. It appears as malfeasance currently, Not only because (lack) of Eeles but also because of DeBarge.

Realizing the chances for Dasan Hill are, like anybody in his situation, not great, I saw him and still see him as easily the Twins best pick in the top 5.

Keaschall good. Only really played 1B and DH'd so much because of the arm injury. Where he fits right now is getting his arm healthy in the minors, conquering AA, and doing the same at AAA. I'd imagine that would take most of the year.

I don't think "plate discipline" is what Julien had in 2023. It's pretty clear that it was passivity that didn't cost him because pitchers were working around the strike zone, testing him out. Julien was broken in the box, but we were so excited for a new toy that most of us didn't recognize it. And he's still broken. Can he be fixed? There's no real reason to think he can in time before other shiny toys grab our attention. There are two really fun ones, one at AA and one at AAA, and neither needs to spend much time where he's at before jumping to the next level. I think the reason Eeles didn't get a spring training invite was to relieve that pressure on Lee and Julien. Eeles could come to camp and blow up everything, and then what to do with those guys?

Reading is one of the worst pitcher's parks in the minor leagues. Never be impressed by a hitter's stats there. On the flip side, a pitcher with success in Reading is more impressive than one in an average park. Castellano could be a gem. Lots of flags, but between his success in two of the last three years and a second, pitching-inclined organization adding to his skillset, I'm very hopeful. Unless he's hurt, I can't imagine him not breaking camp with the Twins.