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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. Rojas is the guy here, though he's far away. Roden should be fine by next year but he's not the main piece.
  2. If Ryan did go to Boston, it's 100% there's a Vazquez/Wong swap as part of it.
  3. I'm not saying Horn is going to be good, but has hasn't pitched for the Rangers except some very good innings this year, and the top 30 lists aren't getting updated for guys like him until the offseason. He a lh version of what the Twins look for, and he's likely to fit right into their development system. If it still exists going forward. Plus there's probably a good chance the Twins had their eye on him when the Rangers took him in the 6th round last year. Twins can sign Coloumbe again this offseason.
  4. I said time and time again, when you get in bed with Scott Boras, it's all bad news in the end. Lewis will be gone in 1-2 years, Jeffers at the end of his team control (or as a rental to some team), and Jenkins within six years of his first MLB AB.
  5. I can't find return. Will maybe edit this when I see it. Can't imagine I'll know the name, but this also might be a ptbnl based on Stewarts innings or, say, WAR for the rest of the season.
  6. Just a warning that Reading (Phillies AA) is a hitter's paradise and stats are misleading. That's on one hand. On the other, Mendez is 21 with a good slash and really low K rate. He stands a decent chance of reaching MLB. He's striking out an absurd 14% while young-ish for AA. He sort of feels like a lh 4th OF, which is sort of an oxymoron with the limited space (due to 13 pitchers). I don't know his exit velocities, but from the basic stats, especially K rate, he looks like a guy who can make it to the bigs. We've talked about lottery tickets, and pitcher Villoria is the face used on the lottery ticket advertisements. It's a smart get by Falvey, as Dombrowski wasn't going to hold up a deal for a guy like that. As for the value for Bader, yeah, Mendez was about what you could expect, Villoria provides a tiny amount of hope.
  7. Yes, I had drafted Ryan in many of my leagues in spring to summer 2021. He was good but scouting reports were nervous. What he is now, though, is a product of Twins development along with his positive traits that made it happen. But I liked him a lot, and what he immediately (first few years) was with the Twins is something I expected. The growth from there with new pitches is not really something you predict. But yeah, I was head over heels with that trade.
  8. Massive overpay only because Rogers is meh. The return is incredibly overrated. Drew Gilbert has and will always suck. Tidwell is probably appropriate value. Butto is...unnecessary in this deal it would seem. Not sure why he's in there, but it seems weird to trade a reliever and get one back. Perhaps a way to open a 40 spot.
  9. I, too, would of course have wanted Painter, but you're not getting Painter for a reliever. This is a pretty damn good return for Duran. Not that it really matters, but MLB.com has Tait at 56 and Abel at 92. I'm not sure I have a fix on Abel, but if there's one team who might "fix" Abel, it's the Twins. Simply, he walks too many guys. I trust the Twins pitching development, but this guy's quite far along, so we'll see what they can do with him. Tait is, appropriately, the headliner. The most important numbers are age 18 at low A in a tough hitting league and, wait for it, a 19.3% K rate. This is bordering on fantastic for age and level. I'm not sold that the Twins need to make catcher a priority (if a top prospect is dangled elsewhere), but this is maybe one of the three best catching prospects out there. We got a young Wilson Ramos. Ramos was a full year older with more similar low A stats than you might catch at first glance. That is, Tait maybe won't seem to hit like Ramos did in the minors, but he projects just was well, arguably better. In a vacuum the Twins did just fine here if they insist on selling a top reliever and we can't see the other offers they had. If they can fix Abel, it's a haul.
  10. There's some high upside here. Henriquez and Wrobleski need work in the Twins system, as Henriquez certainly walks too many batter. Both have had to suffer the minor league hitting parks of the Dodgers and have paid for it in ERA. Ryan is a good prospect who lost this year to TJS. Hope is considered a top 15 prospect in all of baseball. I don't think the Twins could possibly do better than this. The return will ultimately probably be Hope and the one pitcher who's decent from this, but that's what teams are going to give. They're not going to give sure things or they wouldn't be making the trade. I don't like Hope as the centerpiece. He could be good, but I hate the K-rate. He's 20 at A+. That's the problem. Even though he's a level behind, Eduardo Quintero is the Dodger prospect the Twins should be focusing on. Hope looks to be average, Rushing looks to be mediocre, Quintero is a potential star CF to replace Buxton. Even with Quintero instead of Hope, I'm not sure it's enough. Maybe Quintero, Ferris, E. Morales, but I doubt the Dodgers do that.
  11. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trades-that-should-happen-2025?partnerId=it-20250730-14401948-mlb-1-B&utm_id=it-20250730-14401948-mlb-1-B&lctg=10023472 Dodgers get: RHP Jhoan Duran and RHP Griffin Jax Twins get: OF Zyhir Hope (Dodgers' No. 2 prospect, No. 30 overall), RHP River Ryan (Dodgers' No. 8 prospect), RHP Edgardo Henriquez (Dodgers' No. 14 prospect), LHP Justin Wrobleski Why it makes sense: A major component of the Dodgers’ recent struggles has been their bullpen, which owns a 24th-ranked 4.34 ERA on the season. While they’re still atop the NL West standings, they’d prefer a little more distance between themselves and the rest of the pack. And most importantly, in the postseason, pitching is ever so magnified -- especially in the late innings. Enter Duran -- one of the game’s best closers -- and Jax, one of the game’s best late-inning relievers. Duran possesses a triple-digit fastball and a devastating splitter to go along with a knuckle-curve and a sweeper, a repertoire that has his ERA sitting at 2.01. And Jax is second among MLB relievers with 72 strikeouts. He also has a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 5. With a star-studded starting rotation getting healthier and the addition of two elite relievers to the back end of the bullpen, the Dodgers would position themselves nicely for another deep October run. While the general thought surrounding the front office has been that the Dodgers would rather not deal from among the organization’s best prospects, they are aiming to become the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees a quarter century ago. And both Duran and Jax have three years of club control remaining after this season. On the other side of the ledger, the Twins would be getting back three Major League-ready arms from one of the best farm systems in baseball, not to mention Hope, who is one of the best outfield prospects in the game.
  12. I was just going to write this. They gave up nothing, so that's what the Twins are fighting against.
  13. I don't think much of Brice Matthews, but I highly doubt the Twins get a decent prospect for someone taking on Correa's contract. Matthews Ks at 30-33% in minors, would not even be viable here. Maybe that is the guy they get back. Houston doesn't necessarily have or get the best prospects, but they almost always make great decisions on them once they're in the system (Wilyer Abreu excluded). Another look at the Astros situation has me thinking they would need to trade back salary. It wouldn't shock me if the Twins got back Cristian Javier ($10.4) and FA to be Victor Caratini ($6), perhaps among others. Javier's salary the next two years is $21.4, but at least he has some value when healthy (he's at the end of TJS recovery now). That would save Minnesota $11.4 million in '26 and $10.4 million in '27 and Correa's full $31.3 million in 2028. It's probably the right move if it's imperative to dump salary.
  14. It's possible this is part of the excuse they'll use for keeper Bader, if they do. My feeling is they would like to sign Bader for another 2-3 years, but the $$$ won't allow that. It's an no-win situation, really, but it's understandable, given the likely return. It might be best to package a couple of the guys to get something slightly better than a lottery ticket.
  15. If somehow the Twins stumbled into this impossible deal, they still couldn't develop their hitting the rest of the way to MLB.
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