twinstalker

I, too, would of course have wanted Painter, but you're not getting Painter for a reliever. This is a pretty damn good return for Duran. Not that it really matters, but MLB.com has Tait at 56 and Abel at 92. I'm not sure I have a fix on Abel, but if there's one team who might "fix" Abel, it's the Twins. Simply, he walks too many guys. I trust the Twins pitching development, but this guy's quite far along, so we'll see what they can do with him. Tait is, appropriately, the headliner. The most important numbers are age 18 at low A in a tough hitting league and, wait for it, a 19.3% K rate. This is bordering on fantastic for age and level. I'm not sold that the Twins need to make catcher a priority (if a top prospect is dangled elsewhere), but this is maybe one of the three best catching prospects out there. We got a young Wilson Ramos. Ramos was a full year older with more similar low A stats than you might catch at first glance. That is, Tait maybe won't seem to hit like Ramos did in the minors, but he projects just was well, arguably better. In a vacuum the Twins did just fine here if they insist on selling a top reliever and we can't see the other offers they had. If they can fix Abel, it's a haul.

Uh, no.

There's some high upside here. Henriquez and Wrobleski need work in the Twins system, as Henriquez certainly walks too many batter. Both have had to suffer the minor league hitting parks of the Dodgers and have paid for it in ERA. Ryan is a good prospect who lost this year to TJS. Hope is considered a top 15 prospect in all of baseball. I don't think the Twins could possibly do better than this. The return will ultimately probably be Hope and the one pitcher who's decent from this, but that's what teams are going to give. They're not going to give sure things or they wouldn't be making the trade. I don't like Hope as the centerpiece. He could be good, but I hate the K-rate. He's 20 at A+. That's the problem. Even though he's a level behind, Eduardo Quintero is the Dodger prospect the Twins should be focusing on. Hope looks to be average, Rushing looks to be mediocre, Quintero is a potential star CF to replace Buxton. Even with Quintero instead of Hope, I'm not sure it's enough. Maybe Quintero, Ferris, E. Morales, but I doubt the Dodgers do that.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trades-that-should-happen-2025?partnerId=it-20250730-14401948-mlb-1-B&utm_id=it-20250730-14401948-mlb-1-B&lctg=10023472 Dodgers get: RHP Jhoan Duran and RHP Griffin Jax Twins get: OF Zyhir Hope (Dodgers' No. 2 prospect, No. 30 overall), RHP River Ryan (Dodgers' No. 8 prospect), RHP Edgardo Henriquez (Dodgers' No. 14 prospect), LHP Justin Wrobleski Why it makes sense: A major component of the Dodgers’ recent struggles has been their bullpen, which owns a 24th-ranked 4.34 ERA on the season. While they’re still atop the NL West standings, they’d prefer a little more distance between themselves and the rest of the pack. And most importantly, in the postseason, pitching is ever so magnified -- especially in the late innings. Enter Duran -- one of the game’s best closers -- and Jax, one of the game’s best late-inning relievers. Duran possesses a triple-digit fastball and a devastating splitter to go along with a knuckle-curve and a sweeper, a repertoire that has his ERA sitting at 2.01. And Jax is second among MLB relievers with 72 strikeouts. He also has a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 5. With a star-studded starting rotation getting healthier and the addition of two elite relievers to the back end of the bullpen, the Dodgers would position themselves nicely for another deep October run. While the general thought surrounding the front office has been that the Dodgers would rather not deal from among the organization’s best prospects, they are aiming to become the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees a quarter century ago. And both Duran and Jax have three years of club control remaining after this season. On the other side of the ledger, the Twins would be getting back three Major League-ready arms from one of the best farm systems in baseball, not to mention Hope, who is one of the best outfield prospects in the game.

I was just going to write this. They gave up nothing, so that's what the Twins are fighting against.

I don't think much of Brice Matthews, but I highly doubt the Twins get a decent prospect for someone taking on Correa's contract. Matthews Ks at 30-33% in minors, would not even be viable here. Maybe that is the guy they get back. Houston doesn't necessarily have or get the best prospects, but they almost always make great decisions on them once they're in the system (Wilyer Abreu excluded). Another look at the Astros situation has me thinking they would need to trade back salary. It wouldn't shock me if the Twins got back Cristian Javier ($10.4) and FA to be Victor Caratini ($6), perhaps among others. Javier's salary the next two years is $21.4, but at least he has some value when healthy (he's at the end of TJS recovery now). That would save Minnesota $11.4 million in '26 and $10.4 million in '27 and Correa's full $31.3 million in 2028. It's probably the right move if it's imperative to dump salary.

It's possible this is part of the excuse they'll use for keeper Bader, if they do. My feeling is they would like to sign Bader for another 2-3 years, but the $$$ won't allow that. It's an no-win situation, really, but it's understandable, given the likely return. It might be best to package a couple of the guys to get something slightly better than a lottery ticket.

If somehow the Twins stumbled into this impossible deal, they still couldn't develop their hitting the rest of the way to MLB.

The problem here is that the Twins will be getting back a deep prospect. That almost makes it senseless to go after a hitting prospect, since Twins can't identify or develop hitting. On the other hand, they can look for a deep pitching prospect to develop. But I doubt they'll be there to develop it.

Made and De Vries are potential superstars, and their probability of getting there is reasonably high. De Paula and Eldridge are good/great prospects (I'm not a big De Paula fan), but you wouldn't trade Ryan for them. Eldridge would be great with something major added. I wouldn't consider De Paula one of the Dodgers I'd want (Quintero, Hope, et al), but that's not to say he couldn't be better than some of them.

Castro and EmRod for Luis Pena! and a pitcher the Twins like the Brewers don't. Pena's going to be a starting infielder. Law has him at 37. He's an 18 year old SS at low A with a K-rate of 13%, and that's ridiculous. His slash is .316/.383/.486, 13 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR in 287 PAs. He's 40 and 7 on the basepaths. Since Castro would never come close to getting such a prospect, the Twins would be wise to move a guy who not only spends most of his time on the IL but also probably isn't going to be much of a hitter under their development. Milwaukee might like EmRod. This would be a great deal for the Twins and keep us from years of headaches.

And there's the possibility they can unlock him as a starter. It's how they got Ryan. Most people thought he was destined for relief. It made sense.

There are the right circumstances, but they're unrealistic, probably. They would need to get an injured (but only for 2025) very good starter plus great prospect capital. It just doesn't happen outside of fantasy leagues.

A good comp for Houston is Wake's SS/CF/3B from last year also drafted in rd 1 (10th), Seaver King. King was arguably a better hitter, in that he hit for more power and struck out less, though his walk rate for college was low. Houston hit for more average, driven by a monster BABIP. Currently, King is hitting .244/.292/.342 in 366 PAs (A+ and AA). Houston almost certainly will start at low A and should, as a first round pick, destroy that league (like Culpepper and unlike DeBarge). For the record, King's slash was .295/.367/.385 with 14% K-rate at low A last year, a very mediocre result given his status and age over level (+0.4 yrs). Culpepper's sss slash was .297/.366/.541 with a 5% K-rate in a tougher park/league for hitters. At Ft. Myers, to make us feel somewhat confident the Twins didn't totally blow this pick, Houston should put up a good slash (BABIP dependent, though) and strike out less than 10% of the time, the latter being more important. Class A is beneath a first round pick and I'm guessing the only reason these guys are sent there is to get their feet wet under the eyes of the organization. King was a bad pick, one likely driven by the Nationals not accounting for how Wake's park affected his stats and perhaps overvaluing his small college stats. When I analyzed him in December he felt more like a 2nd rd pick, so going 10th screamed reach. The Twins to a slightly lesser extent have that issue, too, plus they picked a non-power guy in Marek Houston who strikes out more often (15.4% at Wake vs King's 12.0%). It's difficult to see how this is going to work out for the Twins, though it's possible it can. To me the obvious pick here was HS SS Kayson Cunningham, who went quickly to Arizona afterwards. The Twins seem to be in search of another Keaschall but still don't understand what made him a good pick two years ago.

Falvey's made some moves that give us reason to question him. Drafting, alone, is reason to question him. If he makes a trade for a few guys people here really want, then he'll really be poor at his job. Irony! Honestly, Falvey is in charge of drafting, of developing hitters and pitchers, and of identifying talent that should be brought into the organization. The only things he apparently has done right is identifying pitchers and developing them. (and yes, I understand he delegates)

Fun for the Dodgers.

J John K. · 8h 17m ago Where is Owen Cassie in your top prospects? Keith Law · 1h 8m ago STAFF @John K. He's not. Nor should he be. 5

What are you talking about? I never said that. I said that's an issue they fall prey to.

Yeah, it is concerning, and it's the only reason I'd consider trading Jax over Duran. I've mostly been hoping it's Duran traded.

C'mon, guys, Owen Caissie and Dalton Rushing are not good prospects. You wonder why prospects ranked highly so often fail? It's not a random thing. It's that the ranking system hasn't caught on to the one fundamental. Minor league slash lines don't mean nearly as much as they think they do, certainly not without context. Major league pitchers are going to toy with Caissie, as evidenced by the fact he can't put the ball in play against minor league pitchers often enough. It's more nuanced than that, but that's the general idea. Rushing just isn't that good. His stats are inflated, and for his age/levels and parks, he also strikes out too much. He simply is going to be mediocre. Both these guys are bad targets, and the Cubs and Dodgers truly hope the Twins are interested in them. Ballesteros, on the other hand, is a star. His age/levels, production, strikeout rate, all project to star at the major league level. If the Twins were able to get him for Duran, I would be thrilled. You get Caissie for Duran, and the fanbase, after initial excitement followed by the pitchers figuring out his many weaknesses, will be screaming for the heads of Falvey and anyone else in the front office. Ballesteros is the man, not enough by himself for Ryan (not even adding the pitcher suggested), but the man the Twins need to land next week. I enjoy the podcast, at least until you get to the Guess the Twin segment. That's unnecessary, I think, but I can switch off.

Stewart pitched.

You might be right that it's not enough for Ryan, but it's the right big names. The top prospects I know otherwise are actually incredibly overrated (Caissie, Alcantara) or are probably too much to throw our way (Rojas, Birdsell). I worry the Twins have no ability to identify low minors hitters, an exercise thoroughly complicated by the Arizona Complex Bandboxes the Cubs and others play in/on. But I do think they could find a pitcher or two.

It would really hurt emotionally to do this deal, but it's the right names. I haven't read the comments, but as long as no one threw the name Caissie in there, they're probably fine. I did see one that mentioned getting these two for a reliever (as hope, not expectation), but I think Ballesteros is too good to not get a lot more. Although we gave up Wilson Ramos for a crappy reliever, which is really a partial answer to "why can't we have good things?" Wiggins has a special upside he probably won't hit as a starter, but he might. Ballesteros is ready, and if he can field, he's our full-time 1B. I'd really try for Ballesteros with one of our stud relievers and maybe some other stuff. Like EmRod. Maybe Duran+EmRod for Ballesteros and Wiggins! Problem is that the Cubs have already been enduring their own EmRod with Owen Caissie, so I doubt they get fooled again.

Dodgers officials are tripping all over themselves to see if you have any power to make deals. This would be just about the worst deal in Twins history.

Rushing is not a high upside hitter. I'm amazed people want players who don't project to be much of anything. Rushing and Cub Owen Caissie are the two prime examples. Don't get fooled by the minor league stats. Use them. For Rushing the biggest indicator is the one tough park in the Dodgers system: Great Lakes in the Midwest League. Rushing was 22, in some ways old for the level prospect-wise, but he was following the same path the Twins have been mostly setting forth for their college prospects. Spend the draft season at low A, then spend the first part of the next year at A+. Except he couldn't get out of A+ (like DeBarge and Schobel). At A+ Rushing had a K rate of close to 25%. At age 22. As a catcher. And he didn't get promoted. For comparison, Kaelen Culpepper was at 16%. This is important. My current analysis has KC as similar to or slightly better major leaguer than Brooks Lee. Rushing, for me, projects as much less than Lee. Strikeout rate isn't all that variable, though the ballpark can affect it. Great hitting parks are great hitting in part because they're not conducive to strikeouts for whatever reason (mound, foul territory). And the PCL is a whole league of that. So Rushing's K rate is too high for his age/level/park. K-rate comparison (they all are born within weeks of each other, relative to draft year) Player A+ AA AAA Rushing 24.3 (22y) 20.7 (23y) 20.1 (23y) (22.0 in repeat age 24) Lee 15.8 (21y) 15.9 (22y) 16.7 (22y) (14.0 in repeat age 23) Culpepper 16.2 (22y) 14.9 (22y) tbd There is no greater predictor of success than a combination of age/level/K-rate, assuming a baseline of a quality slash line. Rushing is at best a mediocre player at the MLB level. The slash lines for each are not really worthy of mention, other than Rushing's A+ being disturbing (.228/.404/.452) and a bit intriguing with an ISO of .224. Extremely high walk rates, though, are actually negative indicators. Also, Caissie's K rates are so bad, he's not worth mentioning, unless it's in reference to a race with EmRod to see who gets dumped first by their team. Looking at slash lines is valuable if you account for K-rate and adjust for age, level, and park. These don't only knock down Rushing considerably, they also knock down Culpepper and Lee, though Lee at this point in the analysis has some age advantage (not much on Culpepper). Finally, I've never considered Rushing a real catcher, but he's playing there for now, so I don't know what happens there. Reports are not great.