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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    Easy, unless Montreal is one of the expansion teams. And they appear to be a favorite. I guess they'd put Montreal in the NL East, Pit in NL North, and Cin in NL South. However, if it's Montreal and Nashville both, I guess you put Col in the AL West and Nashville in the AL South. At least Colorado is used to that, somewhat. Geography divisions, with Montreal and Nashville, no AL or NL (this is just for fun, not a suggestion) NE: Mtl, NYY, NYM, Bos MA: Bal, Phi, Was, Pit (or Cin) SE: Atl, TB, Mia, Nas GL: Tor, Detroit, Cle, Cin (or Pit) NC: Min, Mil, ChC, ChW SC: Hou, Tex, StL, KC SW: Ari, SD, LV, Col W: LAD, LAA, SF, Sea It works out pretty damn well, if you ask me. If Portland or SLC is with Montreal W: Sea, Por/SLC, SF, LV SW: LAD, LAA, Ari, SD SC: KC, Col, Hou, Tex GL: Min, Det, Tor, Cle MW: StL, ChC, ChW, Mil SE: Atl, TB, Mia, Cin MA: Was, Bal, Phi, Pit NE: Mtl, NYY, NYM, Bos And if it's Nashville with SLC or Por, Nashvile goes into the SE and Was into NE. If you want MIN in a division with Mil and the Chicago teams, cheer for Mtl and Nas in this Geography-derived set of division.
  2. twinstalker
    No, a naive or ignorant case can be made for Rodriguez. Extreme walk rate is a negative, not a positive. Slugging pct means very little if the K rate is high. It means a guy has power if he can get to it, but the minors K rate will tell you whether he can get to it. Using avg/obp/slg as a guide to projecting MLB success will lead to disappointment. It only matters in the correct context. The Twins have only two prospects who will be quality major leaguers for certain, and those are Jenkins and Keaschall. Culpepper and Tait are maybe's, EmRod is very much a likely no. With seemingly no ability to deveolop hitting, the Twins are kind of screwed unless they can pump out pitching to trade a bit more quickly. But I haven't seen that they understand what hitters to trade for.
  3. twinstalker
    Facing "older" pitchers or batters is what any draftee does. It's not a badge of honor. To even be considered a true prospect, a player should be significantly younger than his league.
  4. twinstalker
    K rate of 22.0% is too high. As a first rounder he should beat up on low A, and that includes K rate. We'll see.
  5. twinstalker
    Right. So in other words...no good.
  6. twinstalker
    Outman has no chance. He's not Wallner. Pitchers will pitch him in the zone all day if they have to. They don't have to. This was by far the most head-scratching trade. Outman has no value for this team. He's a LIDR/PR for a team that's not competing. Essentially, the Twins got no value for Stewart.
  7. twinstalker
    Actually it's pretty clear that Outman can't hit Roden is a question. It's very clear he can hit minor league pitching. Good for him. His minor league predictors for major league success, though, are muddled. Guys who hit in AAA/AA but not the majors are in one of two buckets. Either they strike out a lot or they swing at and hit most everything (Miranda-like). Roden is a true mystery to me. His minors K rate is low, his walk rate is high but not too high (he's not passive). He really hasn't gotten to his very average (or below) power, and MLB pitchers are taking advantage of that. Some hitters just can't handle higher velocities that are common across MLB, and Roden might be that guy. His bat speed looks like it's around 25th-30th %ile Roden's first full-year ball was at age 23, and at 25 he was in the majors. The sheer quickness of that ascent probably means he needs time to adjust. His advanced age suggests maybe he should have adjusted by now, but maybe he needs the offseason. If I had to choose one direction for him, I'd choose that 2026 will be an average season, but it could well be another bad one.
  8. twinstalker
    Fedko and Rosario are organization guys. Fedko could get a cup of coffee due to fielding, running, and trooper status. Gonzalez is more Jose Miranda than we'd like to think, probably better with the bat, but he's a 4th OF rh platoon type who sucks in the OF -- he has a chance to be good, but it's slight. Rosario is nothing, well, he's Yunior Severino.. Meanwhile Emmanuel Rodriguez may glow for a moment, but he's not going to hit in MLB. Jenkins will be great when injury-free. As a Boras client, he will never sign an extension and will need to be traded early, so enjoy the 4-5 years. I don't think the Twins system OF looks very solid after Jenkins.
  9. twinstalker
    He's going to be lucky to hit anything. With his profile, striking out at 24.5% (12 K in 49 PA) thus far probably won't translate batting avg to A+. There's some variability from the smallish sample size and bias from new-ness to pro ball, but K rate is more steady than you'd think. But low A shouldn't even be a speed bump for top college draft pick. For comparison, Kaelen Culpepper struck out 2 times in 41 PAs in low A, and he's no sure thing. That's <5%. He's around 16% at higher levels, which is good, and for Houston it's absolutely necessary. Kyle DeBarge also struck out at the same rate as Houston at low A, and it's one of the reason I have nearly zero hope for him, the other being the pre-draft chatter. Anyway, most teams had no interest in Houston and were moving on. Why would you do that with a great fielder presumably close to the majors because college? Because you're convinced he can't hit. Twins, for whatever reason, have no clue what they're looking for in a hitter. I'm sure he looked fine to them, which is scary.
  10. twinstalker
    Your link for Gallagher is wrong. Here's the right one: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gallag002rya
  11. twinstalker
    My buddy and I were just talking yesterday, and neither of us believed the Pohlad's were selling. In fact, I told him what I believe I said in some form here or elsewhere: the constant reports of imminent sale were a combination of recycled "news," plants of non-news by Twins, and an urgency to have something by reporters.
  12. twinstalker
    The union would file a grievance for what? What do you think the Twins are doing with Mick Abel? Four months in the Twins picked up a player with one month's service time. Bringing him up would make no appreciable difference in service time-related issues. He wasn't going to be a super two. Next year, either way, he'll be a guy with less than half a season of service time and six more under team control. Plus he was in the minors when they traded for him, and all incentives are to put their return on display. If they were going to mess with a guy, it would have been Keaschall, who actually will be a super two now.
  13. twinstalker
    Last fall I was convinced Aidan Miller was a star. I look at those same stats now and realize the K rate was never going to allow that. It's truly a sliding scale based on the type of hitter you're looking at.
  14. twinstalker
    Miller's "value" was more about his perceived ability to start.
  15. twinstalker
    Highly doubt Houston's bat will be enough to be a regular.
  16. twinstalker
    You don't need the last part. I don't know how you buy low on an established pitcher. He's not going to agree his value is different than it was at this point last year. Keaschall, though, is a buy-high. Zero reason to lock him up until he goes back to .290/.375/.460, which he most definitely will. On the other hand, maybe his representation understands that, but I doubt it.
  17. twinstalker
    How about let's watch him at AAA and see what he can do? So far .286/.273/.286 no xbh, no walks, 6 Ks in 22 PAs (27%). Too small a sample size, but it's definitely not MLB material (yet).
  18. twinstalker
    Varland is arguably their best trade. Shame on you for being so provincial. You think they traded Varland for any other reason than the return?
  19. twinstalker
    I'm as high on Keaschall as anyone and have scoffed for over a year now at the idea anyone other than Jenkins (among current prospects) comes remotely close to him. However, pitchers aren't pitching much to him yet, this time or last time. His quick bat and two strike approach are great, but he's not yet seeing what he's going to see. I just traded for him in another league, and it wasn't cheap.
  20. twinstalker
    Larnach is due to make 4-5 million next year. I highly doubt he's a Twin next year, especially if the team's not sold by tendering date in December. Mendez is a sure thing to get 40'd. Roden, too. Outman was the worst trade of the whole group. But pride exists and the concept of sunk costs doesn't, so unless Outman is traded, I could see all three of these guys on the 40, Larnach traded or non-tendered, Keirsey dumped.
  21. twinstalker
    Hypothetical: Taking on Walker for ~47 million and getting Astros to pay Correa's full salary is the best case scenario in this mess: So the Twins would pay 47 instead of 33, which means Walker for the next two years is $14 million above the deal as it stands now. If that math doesn't seem quite right, it's because Walker is completely worthless to the Twins in 2025. You're paying an extra $14 million for two years when you'd be competitive. But by that logic, since 2026 isn't going to be competitive, you're paying the extra $14 million for Walker's age 36 season two years from now in a 2027season that there's only a mild chance you'd be competitive. Is that worth it? You might put a better product out there while not competing, but how much better, and are you blocking someone? And wouldn't you rather have the $14 million if you're the Twins in the first place because you need it?
  22. twinstalker
    How are these guys going to do with the Twins? (Hand raised and jumping) I know! I know!
  23. twinstalker
    Good trade. Will miss Louie. They don't make this trade unless they think they won it for their situation. Varland will likely have ups and downs over his career, and his ups aren't necessary this year and next for sure for the Twins
  24. twinstalker
    Varland is not something to get your pants in a bunch about. We all feel bad that he didn't want to be traded. Would you rather have a reliever on a team that can't compete for the next year plus, or would you rather have a pretty decent prospect starter and a relatively good, albeit older, hitting prospect? It was a baseball trade.
  25. twinstalker
    No, he stayed in AAA long enough to start the season. Right now, his time counts as MLB until he gets optioned to AAA. Whether they do that or not probably is mostly about his arm and fielding. There's no rush, and they'll have to option him or put him on the active roster after 20 rehab days, but when he's ready, I'm guessing the Twins want him up as soon as possible to put butts in seats. I have to admit, my Twins.tv month expires in a week or so, and whether I renew could depend on Keaschall.
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