twinstalker

He's going to be lucky to hit anything. With his profile, striking out at 24.5% (12 K in 49 PA) thus far probably won't translate batting avg to A+. There's some variability from the smallish sample size and bias from new-ness to pro ball, but K rate is more steady than you'd think. But low A shouldn't even be a speed bump for top college draft pick. For comparison, Kaelen Culpepper struck out 2 times in 41 PAs in low A, and he's no sure thing. That's <5%. He's around 16% at higher levels, which is good, and for Houston it's absolutely necessary. Kyle DeBarge also struck out at the same rate as Houston at low A, and it's one of the reason I have nearly zero hope for him, the other being the pre-draft chatter. Anyway, most teams had no interest in Houston and were moving on. Why would you do that with a great fielder presumably close to the majors because college? Because you're convinced he can't hit. Twins, for whatever reason, have no clue what they're looking for in a hitter. I'm sure he looked fine to them, which is scary.

Your link for Gallagher is wrong. Here's the right one: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gallag002rya

My buddy and I were just talking yesterday, and neither of us believed the Pohlad's were selling. In fact, I told him what I believe I said in some form here or elsewhere: the constant reports of imminent sale were a combination of recycled "news," plants of non-news by Twins, and an urgency to have something by reporters.

The union would file a grievance for what? What do you think the Twins are doing with Mick Abel? Four months in the Twins picked up a player with one month's service time. Bringing him up would make no appreciable difference in service time-related issues. He wasn't going to be a super two. Next year, either way, he'll be a guy with less than half a season of service time and six more under team control. Plus he was in the minors when they traded for him, and all incentives are to put their return on display. If they were going to mess with a guy, it would have been Keaschall, who actually will be a super two now.

Last fall I was convinced Aidan Miller was a star. I look at those same stats now and realize the K rate was never going to allow that. It's truly a sliding scale based on the type of hitter you're looking at.

Miller's "value" was more about his perceived ability to start.

Highly doubt Houston's bat will be enough to be a regular.

You don't need the last part. I don't know how you buy low on an established pitcher. He's not going to agree his value is different than it was at this point last year. Keaschall, though, is a buy-high. Zero reason to lock him up until he goes back to .290/.375/.460, which he most definitely will. On the other hand, maybe his representation understands that, but I doubt it.

How about let's watch him at AAA and see what he can do? So far .286/.273/.286 no xbh, no walks, 6 Ks in 22 PAs (27%). Too small a sample size, but it's definitely not MLB material (yet).

Varland is arguably their best trade. Shame on you for being so provincial. You think they traded Varland for any other reason than the return?

I'm as high on Keaschall as anyone and have scoffed for over a year now at the idea anyone other than Jenkins (among current prospects) comes remotely close to him. However, pitchers aren't pitching much to him yet, this time or last time. His quick bat and two strike approach are great, but he's not yet seeing what he's going to see. I just traded for him in another league, and it wasn't cheap.

Larnach is due to make 4-5 million next year. I highly doubt he's a Twin next year, especially if the team's not sold by tendering date in December. Mendez is a sure thing to get 40'd. Roden, too. Outman was the worst trade of the whole group. But pride exists and the concept of sunk costs doesn't, so unless Outman is traded, I could see all three of these guys on the 40, Larnach traded or non-tendered, Keirsey dumped.

Hypothetical: Taking on Walker for ~47 million and getting Astros to pay Correa's full salary is the best case scenario in this mess: So the Twins would pay 47 instead of 33, which means Walker for the next two years is $14 million above the deal as it stands now. If that math doesn't seem quite right, it's because Walker is completely worthless to the Twins in 2025. You're paying an extra $14 million for two years when you'd be competitive. But by that logic, since 2026 isn't going to be competitive, you're paying the extra $14 million for Walker's age 36 season two years from now in a 2027season that there's only a mild chance you'd be competitive. Is that worth it? You might put a better product out there while not competing, but how much better, and are you blocking someone? And wouldn't you rather have the $14 million if you're the Twins in the first place because you need it?

How are these guys going to do with the Twins? (Hand raised and jumping) I know! I know!

Good trade. Will miss Louie. They don't make this trade unless they think they won it for their situation. Varland will likely have ups and downs over his career, and his ups aren't necessary this year and next for sure for the Twins

Varland is not something to get your pants in a bunch about. We all feel bad that he didn't want to be traded. Would you rather have a reliever on a team that can't compete for the next year plus, or would you rather have a pretty decent prospect starter and a relatively good, albeit older, hitting prospect? It was a baseball trade.

No, he stayed in AAA long enough to start the season. Right now, his time counts as MLB until he gets optioned to AAA. Whether they do that or not probably is mostly about his arm and fielding. There's no rush, and they'll have to option him or put him on the active roster after 20 rehab days, but when he's ready, I'm guessing the Twins want him up as soon as possible to put butts in seats. I have to admit, my Twins.tv month expires in a week or so, and whether I renew could depend on Keaschall.

Trading a reliever midseason makes some sense. Don't be surprised, though, if the Twins trade someone like Ryan this offseason. In some ways he'll command a better return than anything offered at the deadline. The Red Sox got attention by leaking their interest in Ryan at the last seconds, but they weren't offering anything (just the Password), and I'm sure the Twins had gotten lots better talent in offers or at least in discussions. But one thing teams couldn't do was offer anybody already in their lineup. That won't necessarily be a holdup in the offseason.

Falvey didn't trade anybody he wasn't going to have to trade at some point, if he could. Even Varland he sold probably at his high point of value. You can criticize the return for each player, though I suspect most people's expectations weren't realistic. The main issue wrt the deadline was trading the whole pen, but with the state of the team, you don't need to have a complete bullpen until 2027. Did he trade anyone else he didn't realistically have to? Falvey's got a lot of restrictions, we know that. But there are three things under his control I would deem failures: Identification of hitting talent. This is mostly about drafting U.S. and signing int'l hitting talent. Jenkins was a no-brainer as the 5th of five #1 picks in a draft (I argued Crews didn't belong). Lewis was an under slot pick and has yet to really show he's a decent #1 pick. In nine drafts the only hitter to show himself has been Luke Keaschall. That's horrible. The only int'l signing to tease is Emmanuel Rodriguez, and he's so flawed I don't he does anything especially good at MLB. Kaelen Culpepper and Brooks Lee have shown themselves to be candidates, but even the latter was an obvious pick (who's development is questionable). The Twins have wasted all sorts of high picks on hitters who had no chance once they got to the mid-minors. Development of hitting. Thus far there's very little if any evidence the Twins can develop hitters. We've seen them ruin a few seasons for hitters, perhaps. They thought they could change Martin's swing, and that backfired. They also traded for a very good low A hitter in Gabriel Gonzalez, and we watched him have a lousy A+ season in a Kernels uniform. All first rounders should have a great chance once exposed to organizational development, but Cavaco, Sabato, N. Miller, DeBarge, and other promising hitters like Julien haven't been helped one bit, it seems. The identification and development are mixed together, so it's hard to parse, but it's apparent the Twins have problems with both. Sleeping with Boras. I've been upset about this from the beginning, as there's very little to gain. Boras clients won't extend. They're overpriced. And because they're all about money in one way or another, they rarely perform to the pay level they've gotten for themselves. Lewis is under team control through 2028, but if Duran and Jax and Ryan were trade fodder this year, you can bet Lewis, as someone who won't extend, will or should be dealt as soon as he's having a great season, if he ever does. Walker Jenkins is Boras and will present similar problems a few years from now. These three things are generally what Falvey has done poorly with. I'm guessing he's learned his lesson with Boras, so I'm not all that worried with that moving forward. The hitting "identification" at least was maybe addressed in part with the international scouting changes. There appear to be no obvious changes to domestic drafting/scouting and I don't know of changes to hitting development (which I'd overhaul somehow, some way). The big positive is the pitching identification and development, starting with Ober and including even Ryan, who wasn't obvious like Gonzalez was as a hitter in the Polanco trade. That's a big deal and not an area you really want to mess with. I think Falvey should be evaluated on all of the above, and he's batting about .400 in a endeavor where .700 is maybe the standard.

3.5 years is the beginning of 2029. You think that's the best case scenario for Tait? He's at A+ now, and it's reasonable to assume AA at midpoint 2026, AAA by 2027, when Jeffers will be gone. He can get called up that year if things go well. Also, Twins won't fix Roden, but he might not really need fixing. His improvement might come naturally, though you'd like to hope he could have handled MLB better.

Julien struck out 29 times in 97 PAs. That doesn't matter all that much if you want to see who batted best in the minor leagues, which I suppose this is all about. However, just like a pitcher who doesn't strike anybody out, my thought is he probably shouldn't be listed due to his K-rate. At any rate, he's a mess, and it doesn't matter what luck he hits into at MLB. I didn't really sign up to watch him take third strikes down the middle for two solid months.

Well, he didn't. Calvin was coerced into moving into the Metrodome.

I sometimes think reports just get recycled from other sources we've already finished with. I also think ownership or a front office easily and often plants things like this. It's probably the Pohlads leaking info or false info they think could help their reputation a bit.

They traded Varland for value, it wasn't the same sort of trade as the rest. You can disagree with the value, but they didn't need to trade him, obv. Rojas and Roden have value, and they probably are trading Varland at his peak value. With France they save only $100k (1/3 of the difference between him and a min salary), so unless the Jays dumped him already, they probably wanted to see if he could hit lhp. Here's the scout: Rojas must have been hurt earlier this season, so I'll go with his last chunk of innings: 56 ip, 50 h, 12 bb, 61 k at age 21 last year at A+. His K/9 has increased significantly in 23.2 ip at AA/AAA this year to 13.5. He doesn't really walk guys. Projections for pitchers are difficult, but he does seem to have a chance. Roden was an old draftee (22 in 2022) whose first full season in 2023 was split between A+ and AA, where he hit and got on base with modest power. His outstanding trait was a 10% K rate at A+, 15% at AA first trip, 14% AA second trip, 14% AAA first time, 9% second time this year, and 21% in MLB in his first 113 PAs. He's adjusting and should be a fine hitter, better than Larnach probably. Between the two acquired, it's probably a good trade. Varland is likely to have a short time as a dominant reliever, and that time would be while the Twins stink, Still, we all love Louie, so it doesn't feel great.

I'll correct myself here. I'd looked up Rojas last week as a guy to possibly draft in one of my league. I probably looked up six complex/low A guys with him. I remember him being good, but I didn't remember that he was at AA (maybe now AAA).