twinstalker

I was going to mention this and wondered whether the birth year is correct. In the '70s even a young kid in Iowa was aware that Tony-O was actually Pedro and older than his listed age. Actually, I thought his "nickname" was Pedro to explain why people called him that. So is 1938 correct or is it even prior to that? I know 1938 puts him at 25/26 for his ROY season. Ah, here it is from Wikipedia: Due to a paperwork switch at Oliva's arrival in the US to reflect the name and birthdate of his younger brother Pedro Jr. (born 1941) in order to appear younger to major league scouts, many newspapers reported the 21-year-old Tony as his 18-year-old sibling.[5][7] The name stuck and Oliva officially changed his name to Tony Pedro Oliva in the late 1990s.

You mention the ones who haven't developed, but what about the others? Cavaco, Sabato, Miller, DeBarge? The Twins can still pride themselves they took and developed them.

I would take AJ Ewing for Coloumbe. He's a lh-hitting CF at A+ Brooklyn right now, doesn't have much power but the hit tool is okay, and he is 55 and 7 on the bases this year. His K rate is a little high for his profile (19.3%), but his walk rate isn't too high at 14.2%, it's the upper end of the good range, edging toward passive. He's over a year younger than Kyle DeBarge at the same level and has CF skills. MLB.com has him ranked 26th in the system after last year, and it doesn't appear to be updated. My guess is that he's closer to the top 10 now. His A+ slash is .287/.396/.387. His K rate this year at A+ is down a ton from the 29.1% he had at low A last year, and that's what makes him a prospect. Turns 21 in August.

You can't just say you want to be like TB and Cleveland, you have to also have the smarts to make the decisions they make, and you have to have the same level of development. Having 1-2 from those organizations in your own doesn't make you as smart as the guys they weren't ready to let go to a team like Minnesota.

I don't see anything special in Long, but I don't see any glaring weaknesses either (though from the report I understand speed and defense are not good). Also, he had a really bad Cape Cod in 2022 (33% K rate) that doesn't really fit with most of his minor league level/seasons, so I don't really get that. Coloumbe for Long is correct for three years ago when less teams thought they had a chance. Now it's not enough for Coloumbe. Maybe if the Cubs add a 2023 Zebby-type. That's if Coloumbe is healthy, but... The other thing to consider in a Coloumbe trade is that Coloumbe might not pass a physical. So maybe it's something like Long and PTBNL where the unknown depends on appearances or days on the roster.

Clemens is a semi-platoon/PH type. He's 29. That he's this important to the Twins tells you all you need to know about where Twins hitting is at. If he plays much, it's sad for Twins fans, though it probably doesn't matter. It means the organization is at a place where it doesn't have true starters, which we know is the case. But that's the deal. If he plays more, it's not going to help his stats. If he comes close to maintaining his slash, he will be on a team next year, probably without the risk of being DFA'd like he was this year. As far as being a Twin next year, I guess it represents a floor for his positions.

Manfred said just about nothing. Read it again. Rob Manfred says bidders to buy Twins backed off when it became evident Justin Ishbia was "the leader in the clubhouse," but now that he’s out, Manfred is "confident that a transaction will take place." The "presumably soon" is thrown in there by Miller. What Manfred actually said is what we've been told before and know already. Twins are leaking that to us, and saying the same thing to Manfred. Nothing mean nothing, so to speak. Twins are valued at, generously, 1.6 billion (not including debt) and have 450 million in debt. Who's going to pay that much? Even if a candidate gets lower interest on the debt from MLB, it's still not worth it to give the Pohlads 1.7 billion or even 1.6 million and take on that debt.

This is what I noticed about the draft, too, They actually are investing in real pitchers rather than more or less longshots. I thought they should have done that in round 2, as well. Take a hitter in round 1 who needs the least help and development (because you aren't developing hitting), then take the best looking pitchers you can. Lean into your strengths. I thought they did poorly with their first pick and second rd pick, the hitters. The pitchers in rds 1 and 3 seem like better candidates than they've drafted before for their college development projects. I have fewer opinions on the day 2 pitchers, but I sort of trust they know what they're looking for there. I can't say the same for any hitter they draft.

I was a little surprised he did so well in round 1. I was afraid it was going to go like Round 2 did. He'll forever have Round 1 to look back on and so not be embarrassed by his performance. Now let's forget this ever happened, it has nothing to do with anything, except maybe screwing up your swing or getting hurt.

Take any player. I'm willing to bet you can find a 3 game period that was "crazy!!" It's just fun with numbers. Ferrer's been a disappointment. His college numbers indicated he should be better than he's doing right now. Meanwhile DeBarge is more tanking than he is hot. His July numbers: .250/.283/.318, and he's .211/.301/.328 since early June. He's turned out to be just what I feared. He's not young for his level as a prospect. He's 22 (today!) playing at A+, and he was a first round pick (a terrible one, I said). I can't believe I backtracked a little on that opinion this spring. My first impression of Marek Houston was Kyle DeBarge (the one that was a terrible pick) with a better glove for shortstop. We'll see. Finally, Raya. Definitely deserving of Hot Sheet inclusion. Good for him. He'll have some stories to tell his grandkids about a small stretch he had in AAA before he moved to relief.

Yeah, I'm wondering if they won't move a pick behind the plate. Personally, I have a bias against catchers because unless you find a magical one, you might as well take one off the scrap heap. Twins found Mauer, Ramos, and Jeffers. I agree with the philosophy of not wasting good picks on catching if the kid's not special. Wait for a different year. It would have been interesting if Bodine or Stevenson had fallen to them at 36. It would be nice, even for one year, if St. Louis would take over our international scouting in the catcher department.

Are you suggesting we put Lee at catcher?

20 to 80 on talent relative to slot Houston 30 Quick 65 Young 35 Ellwanger 65 In my limited (to 30-40 players) knowledge, I'd have taken at least 6-10? guys on the board (including Quick) before I took Houston. The top three being Cunningham, Irish, Neyens. I would have taken Quick, I think, at 36. I would have passed on Young. Twins development hasn't been able to help Cavaco, Sabato, Winokur, and others targeted "sluggers." I don't know why anyone would expect them to help Young. On the flip side, Twins know what they're doing in pitching development, and they know who to target. I'm not sure this FO has drafted a college pitcher as high as either of these guys (edit: Canterino, Prielipp), so it will be fun to see what they can do with a more talented sort.

There are still a lot of directions this could go, but I hold a ton more hope for him now than I did for him on draft day 2024. There are some indicators I hold in my bag that are blinking green at this point. His combo of walk rate (not too low, not too high) and strikeout rate are perfect (see Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee) and indicate he'll be a major leaguer and probably be a tough out. A couple of weeks ago, after he had 9 games at AA, I mentioned that if he reduced his 20% AA K rate to 16% by the end of the AA season, he would show himself to be a major leaguer. After seven more games, he's already at 15.6% in 16 AA games. Keaschall, while eight months younger at the time, had a K rate of 19.1% at AA, Lee was both the same age and had the same K rate at AA. The interesting part right now in the Culpepper vs Lee comparison is that Culpepper has a better slash, likely due in part to SSS plus other sources of variation, But it's fair to wonder if Culpepper is a better hitter than Lee. I didn't imagine that scenario. I think at this point the probability of Culpepper being a complete flop is low. He appears to have a major league future, at a minimum, as opposed to a Jose Miranda situation or Edouard Julien situation or worse. Anything is possible, but I'd bet against him having that sort of failure.

If he has any integrity, he will. These picks are not made with fingers crossed. The Twins would have checked on the signing parameters and $$$ before taking him, perhaps or probably in the last minutes. If somehow there becomes a bidding war, you just let him go to LSU, because you've gotten all the info you need about who he is.

You can always tell when the project pitcher phase of the draft kicks in for the Twins, though Ellwanger was ranked (by Law) right around where the Twins took him, so maybe it's after the requisite catchers get taken.

This seems reckless or lazy. The Twins need guys who understand inherently how to hit. This guy doesn't. Twins have shown no abiity to develop a good hitter, much less turn a bad hitter around. I'm sure when he hits it, it goes far. That can be said of tens of thousands of failed hitters before him. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6454202/2025/07/01/mlb-draft-2025-top-100-prospects-holliday-doyle/ Young struggled badly in the summer and fall of 2024, with a 39 percent whiff rate at tracked events (per Synergy Sports data) and huge trouble catching up to even average velocity. He spent the offseason reworking his own swing, though, and had a strong enough spring to put him back on the map for at least teams that still scout players beyond data and video. He’s improved his plate discipline and swing decisions, and he’s much more balanced through contact as he’s getting his front leg down more consistently. He has plus power right now, although he probably has a 40 hit tool even after the adjustments, and you’re betting on him continuing to make improvements in pro ball. He has a 70 arm, so while he’s not going to stick at shortstop, he might be able to handle third and should have a defensive floor in right field — and if he doesn’t hit, I wonder if someone sees if he can pitch. He’s committed to LSU.

As Manfred was at the podium about to announce the pick, I was repeating aloud Riley Quick, Riley Quick, Riley Quick I really wanted Casen Bodine to drop in the moments after the first Twins pick (and after Cunningham, Neyens, and Irish went) and then was both intrigued and scared by Stevenson, but Quick was the guy I had hopes for at 36 all week.

He's saying Houston doesn't have enough power for pitchers to be careful with. It's not all about HR power, so we'll see. He very well may be right, could possibly be wrong. Houston's scariest line item is his isolated power of .023 at the Cape Cod league. That's a serious problem indicated. College stats are very difficult to interpret, but CCBL stats are very helpful in any projection, mostly because it's better competition with wood bats. Frankly, in college, his college K rate is too high for someone with no power, and that's difficult to say about anyone with only a 15.4% K rate. It reminds of HSer Noah Miller. This is a bad pick, I think, and will depend on whether he swings in the zone, makes contact in the zone, and what his exit velocities are. These are unknowns that if they resolve in positive directions, I'd change my opinion. For all my doubts about Culpepper last year, I never said that (bad pick) about him, even though I did question it and preferred someone else. I did say it about DeBarge and Amick and the first three picks as a package. I think I'm saying it about Houston. I just don't see a path to being a starting player, except for the unknowns, which you have to see for any first rounder, much more so for the 16th pick in a good draft. For what it's worth, my pick (Witherspoon) was sniped by the Red Sox but I would have taken HS SS Cunningham or Auburn C/OF Irish or maybe HS SS (3B) Neyens. Keith Law, though, thinks he'll be a starter https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6490241/2025/07/14/mlb-draft-2025-day-1-picks-results-analysis/ Pick 16: Minnesota Twins — Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest Live blog analysis: Marek Houston is one of the safest picks in the draft, as he’s definitely a shortstop and seems extremely likely to hit enough to at least be a regular for someone in the majors. He started to hit the ball a little harder this year, although his career-high 15 homers were aided more than a little bit by Wake Forest’s Manhattan studio apartment-sized ballpark. He hit for average and a ridiculous .465 OBP on the Cape last summer as well, a very positive sign since that came with the wood bat. I don’t see a star here, but I do see an everyday player. (my edit: Law should be ashamed of himself. That .465 means nothing. What's important is he hit .306 with a mere two doubles of powers to yield a slug of .329, and even that's influenced by batted ball data) Keith Law scouting report: Houston is a no-doubt shortstop who’s boosted his performance and some of his batted-ball characteristics just enough to give him a chance to get into the top 10 in a draft class that’s weak up top. He set career bests in homers and steals this year while playing plus defense once again. The power is kind of an illusion, as Wake Forest plays in a shoebox, and 11 of Houston’s 15 homers this year came at home, mostly wall-scrapers that would be doubles or outs in a typical ballpark. He does have very strong hand-eye coordination and almost never whiffs on pitches in the zone, with a short swing that had him over a 50 percent groundball rate as a sophomore but down to 44 percent this year. He’s a high-floor, lower-ceiling prospect, unless someone foresees more power in his future than I do. He is a definite shortstop who hits the ball hard enough to keep his average up against good pitching, but probably doesn’t get above 10-12 homers a year. (my edit: the biggest part of this is that Law says Houston "hits the ball hard enough." That's the main question.)

I got it and laughed.

LOL. It doesn't matter how much you say it or how logical it is...

Mick Abel isn't enough for either. And Painter is kind of sucking, though it's his first year back. Twins might have a shot there.

Nimmala isn't remotely on the table for anyone. Yesavage is very hit and miss. His motion and delivery is...well, I don't even know how to describe it. It's close to straight overhead and "hard." It appears to have little chance of repeatability, affecting control and making command a pipe dream. It comes at the batter fast, making college and low minors hitters uncomfortable. He has a chance, but I'm not as high on him as I was prior to watching him pitch. Orelvis Martinez is in no way a major league hitter. We should know that, right? Tiedemann almost certainly will end up in the pen. They also have Alan Roden, who's a better Larnach best case but more likely the same guy in a year. The Jays system was seemingly empty to start the year, aside from Nimmala, and that's why 1st round pick Yesavage is listed at 2. There have been some developments, from what I understand, but I'd be surprised if any are worthy of giving them Duran. The Twins would be wise to do anything it can to acquire Nimmala, but I don't really think it's possible. Perhaps they could give Duran and EmRod for Nimmala and Roden, but I doubt any team would accept EmRod as an impactful part of a deal for a future star like Nimmala. If the Twins take Orelvis Martinez back in any deal, it's further evidence they don't know what they're doing on the hitting side.

I don't understand in the least why the Twins put Severino on their 40-man last year, unless they truly didn't ever need that 40th spot. Basically, they wanted to give St. Paul a AAA slugger, I guess, and it was possible or they were told he would try elsewhere. They weren't losing any future MLBer by losing him. He was never a prospect in the sense that he would eventually do anything to help in the majors. And it really scares me if they thought he might be. It very possibly comes down to the organization problem of not understanding how to identify or develop hitting. One that scares the heck out of me as they once again draft a new batch.

You are focusing on the wrong prospects. Caissie will be pretty bad, for instance.