jorgenswest

Slash stats need a very large sample size. ERA needs years. A batter or pitcher really can run into a multiyear stretch of “luck” on those. There are some stats that do become stable. Strikeout rate and walk rate stabilize early. Pitch level stats will stabilize earlier. The better teams can use those to project and improve performance the better they will be at developing a roster. OPS is great for telling the story of the past but its components need a large sample size. Broadcasters compound this by reporting slash stats in splits by handedness or months or even weeks. They may tell an interesting story of the but are virtually meaningless for the current at bat.

His slash stat performance didn’t change Baldelli’s plan. Jeffers saw more of the lefties and missed more of the better right handed pitchers early on. I also am not sure how he did against lefties. Was he striking out? Was he hitting the ball hard? Was he staying in the strike zone? That is the data that would better describe how he did and the kind of at bats to build on. Baldelli also gave him a pinch hit opportunity in his second game against a position player where he hit a home run. That early home run off Stallings made his OPS look good for quite a while if somehow a slash stat early in season had any meaning to anyone. The same can be done for Miranda. He doesn’t need to play everyday. They can pick spots where he is more likely to be successful and build on those at bats.

At the start of the season Baldelli had Jeffers starting in the more favorable match ups and the majority of the few lefties. It allowed Jeffers to find success after a struggle last year. He can also pick his spots for Miranda right now. Miranda showed enough promise in 21 and 22 to give him plenty of time to work through this struggle. He doesn’t need to play everyday to do that work.

A similar article probably was written three years after the fact about 2018 Escobar trade. The top prospect acquired had an injury riddled 2021 AAA season with almost a walk an inning and a 5.06 ERA. It was easy to forget in the moment that it was a 23 year old kid that still had plenty of time to figure it out.

They have had other opportunities and didn’t come through. They take the Blue Jay and Brewer series and then fall to a scuffling Tiger team that was done like 1-12 in June. They win a series against the Yankees and Royals and lose to an 8-21 White Sox team. They have an opportunity to show consistency that they have yet to show this year. I would judge that as a step forward.

That is two series wins in a row. They haven’t made it to three yet. It would be great to go into the break by getting that third in a row against the Orioles.

Wasn’t the cost of taking Flexen’s contract paid by the Mets in order for them to add Trevor Gott without giving up a player (other than one they were already going to lose to DFA)? The Twins could incentivize a team to take Kepler’s contract by sweetening the deal with another player. Looking at BTV Castro and Solano are in Gott’s value range. Would you look for a team interested in adding either Castro or Solano and then instead of seeking a prospect you would ask them to take Kepler’s remaining contract instead? I would prefer getting a prospect and eating the cost of the contract. Better yet if they find someone interested in Kepler, offer to pick up his contract in hopes of getting a prospect.

Fastball speed is a good indicator but velocity down slightly also might point to changes in spin rate and even sharpness of location. It is unlikely everything else remained the same.

He might try to cut down on his strike out rate. He 96 strike outs in 259 at bats. He also needs to get better defensively. It looks like they see him at 3B instead of 2B. He is going to need the time to get to a passable level at that spot. There is space at 3B in AAA but the strikeout and walk rates need to get better.

I can get behind the swap in outfielders though I don’t expect anyone in AAA striking out 30% of the time at that level to be very effective in the majors. If anything the Twins need bats that can put balls in play. I can’t get behind the catchers. Camargo has 69 strike outs and 13 walks in the pitching poor AAA. He is not ready. Give him time at AAA. Williams is not a catcher and is not being developed to be a catcher. I am not a buyer at the deadline unless the Twins win 4 series in a row. They have a chance to do that with the weak July schedule. They don’t have much to sell. A Gray offer would have to be pretty good because worst case they have a comp pick. Gallo, Kepler and Taylor would likely bring back a return of a player that is a fringe rule 5 decision or out of options for next year. They might expect someone like the Alex Presley return they acquired when they traded Morneau.

Williams and Wallner strike out 30% in AAA. I am not sure if that will translate well though I would like Wallner to get a chance. Since his return to AAA about a month ago Gilberto Celestino has an OBP of .400 and more walks than strike outs. His strike out rate is 10.8%. Does his glove, right handed bat and contact skills fit the Twins needs better right now?

We really have a different understanding of the math to get to that 13-9. They need to go 2-1 and then 3-2 and then 4-3 and then 4-3. Only a small percent of the paths to 13-9 take that path. It is much more difficult to get there by winning 4 series and they will need to be way more than kinda warm. The bar I think they need to pass is win 4 series in a row by the deadline. I suggested that bar weeks ago and still waiting for them to get there. So far they have managed two in a row. They still can do this in July. Win the next three series and I am in. Two of them are the A’s and Royals. If the Orioles trip them up next weekend they still have 5 series against losing teams after the break to win 4 in a row. If they can’t do it against the likes of the A’s, Mariners, White Sox and Royals why would we want them to trade off prospects thinking they can improve the team enough to win four series in a row against the best teams?

Why not again? It feels like I am repeating myself but it is four series instead of two and they would only open at home in the first of the four. This team hasn’t even won more than two series in a row this season. If they win 4 series in a row by the deadline I would be a buyer.

I strongly disagree with the anything can happen in the playoffs. This isn’t 1987 when the playoff conditions were very different. Home park advantage rotated and it just so happened that the AL West had home for both ALCS and WS (same in 1991). That was a significant edge for the Twins. You need to win 4 series in a row instead of 2. Some say you just need to go 13-9. While true it is a flawed argument. Many of the paths that get to 13-9 get cut off before you get to the finish. Start 1-2 or 4-4 and you don’t get a chance to go 13-9. The Twins have yet to win 4 series in a row this year. They haven’t even won three series in a row. They need to show that kind of consistency before they should be buyers. They have a chance. They have taken the Orioles series. Win the next three series and I am in on Goldschmidt.

Statcast keeps track of hard hits and Joey Gallo makes his living on his hard hit rate. It is a whopping .583. That is 100 points better than the next Twin (>100 ABs) Ryan Jeffers at .481. Of course he strikes out a ton. Many of his outs are whiffs and have no exit velocity. Should those be factored in? I wondered what the data would look like if the denominator was at bats instead of balls in play. The new leader is Ryan Jeffers. That was unexpected. Add in the strike outs and Jeffers is at .325. Gallo now ranks 5th among Twins with a hard hit average of .311. I was not surprised to see Donovan Solano near the top. He ranks second at .323. I was surprised to see the 3rd and 4th ranked Twins. Jose Miranda is at .318 and Max Kepler at .314. The only other Twins with a hard hit average above .300 is Carlos Correa at .308. The top three have less than 100 at bats and in Wallner's and Garlick's case far less than 100 ABs. I don't know if it is meaningful or more meaningful but I like the look of the number. It is more in the batting average range. It takes into account all of a player's outs including the strike outs. I don't know if it has a name so I called it hard hit average. They should consider giving that Wallner kid another look. Hard Hit Average through June 29 .474 Matt Wallner .357 Kyle Garlick .330 Nick Gordon .325 Ryan Jeffers .323 Donovan Solano .318 Jose Miranda .314 Max Kepler .311 Joey Gallo .308 Carlos Correa .289 Trevor Larnach .283 Jorge Polanco .282 Christian Vazquez .272 Edouard Julien .269 Byron Buxton .259 Alex Kirilloff .250 Royce Lewis .250 Kyle Farmer .239 Willi Castro .232 Michael A. Taylor

His average exit velocity, launch angle, barrel rate and hard hit rate are virtually the same as Miranda’s this year. They are both similar profile to Solano but Solano is a notch up in each of those categories. Can the Twins build on the strengths of these two batters who tend towards contact or will they they try to push them towards more power? I have been wondering about their ability to develop players with contact rate as ann area of strength since I saw how Austin Martin responded last year. I justified that Arraez turned out well but now he is really thriving this year and was likely under appreciated by the Twins management. They need to help Kirilloff build on his strengths and if that is a good line drive high contact rate hitter there should be a place in the line up for that hitter.

I honestly don’t either. For a long time I have favored power and on base over contact but I am wondering if that is still true in this baseball context of a never ending supply of relievers. It might be the skills of the players they choose to roster rather than their approach. They have the worst contact rate in the major leagues this year. They can’t change the roster easily. There are more of the same low contact players in AAA. The players that do tend towards contact like Kepler, Miranda and Celestino don’t seem to be thriving under their guidance. Even a successful contact hitter like Arraez has taken a stride forward after leaving. I do know that there isn’t a linear correlation between runs scored and strike outs. I did notice that the teams that have scored more runs per game this year have a team strikeout rating that tends toward the middle. Maybe that balance has value. I have a lot of questions and wonders. I know this isn’t working. I believe it is bigger than the failures of the individuals. I don’t think it can be fixed without making more contact. That can’t happen without a different preparation or approach. The first half is behind them. They ranked first in strikeouts. What can they do to move that second half strikeout ranking into the second quartile?

Maybe. There are bunch of players with a high strikeout/power approach. Does that work better in St. Paul. Isn’t that profile similar to the approach on the Twins?

It may take time for teams to adjust their approach? Without a change in approach and a trend towards more contact we probably won’t see a big change. Is the slight because all teams are doing slightly better or are a few teams seeing a significant change. Have the DBacks changed their approach? Their strike out rank is down. Their run scoring is up. Their team batting average is up 30 points.

Wallner’s strike out rate is certain to be much higher than Kepler’s. I guess they can be really all in with strike outs. Maybe they let go of Kepler and Gallo while bringing up Wallner and Celestino. I think they need to balance out the strike outs so finding a way to get Miranda back up also would help. Does the run scoring context in St. Paul really give us a misperception of performance? There are a bunch of players in St. Paul with strike out rates at 30% or greater but a good OPS due a power/walk approach. It works there in the higher run scoring environment. How well will those high strike out rates translate to the majors? I do think context rate is important and the Twins need more balls in play. Celestino and Miranda put balls in play. The Twins need that balance between contact and the strike out laden power.

If I tried anything for a few weeks it would to try to reduce strike outs and start more often the hitters that tend to put the ball in play. I would also be more aggressive on the bases in front of batters like Correa that tend to hit into double plays. Balls in play and running can energize a bench. Without the support of a study, I wonder if the volume of those strike outs are giving a boost to the pitcher and have a negative impact taking away some energy from the rest of the offense. There is no chance of stringing together a few bloop hits with all of those strike outs. In the baseball environment of the 90s there was almost no correlation between runs scored and strike outs. Is that still true in the 2023 environment. I might be worth the time to take a look. In a put the ball in play plan Miranda and Celestino might be the additions. I have been biased for quite a while by OPS driven up by power and walks. I wonder if baseball is shifting and I haven’t noticed. edit: A graph of team strikeouts per 100 games and runs per 100 games. The line looks similar as the 90s. If there is a relationship it may be quadratic. The teams that score the most runs happen to be more in the middle of the strike out list. They must have a balance between contact and power in their line up. If that is true in the new environment of 2023, how can the Twins achieve that balance?

Your main stat OPS+ is based on slash stats and they need a very large sample to stabilize. Would it be wise to devise a lineup for the rest of the season based on the first (almost) half of the season?

So many factors go into a pitchers path to the majors. Did they get drafted from college, high school or the international draft? Did they lose a season or even more to Tommy John or other serious injury? did they lose a season in the minors to COVID. Did it take them longer to find that second or third pitch or establish command? In Varland’s case, he went college and his first full age 22 season was lost to COVID. That puts him at 23 in his first professional season. I think it is pretty impressive and a credit to his hard work that he made his major league debut at 24. He has work to do and I think he will continue to do that hard work.

My criteria for an established pipeline. 1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer. 2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation. They are getting closer but not there yet.

Thoughtful work. Thank you. I appreciate the space for conversation here and hope that the Buxton conversation can happen here rather than nearly every post. I don’t think I fit in any of the categories. I certainly not happy to see him at DH only. I can’t imagine anyone would be happy including the Twins staff. I honestly don’t need more details on the medicals from the team. I appreciate that they are careful to protect the privacy of the player. I trust that if Buxton could play in the field he would be. I don’t need to know more.