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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think an argument can be made without using his stat line. He will give the Twins versatility, speed and a right handed bat. The stat line from AAA is so skewed this year. An .800 OPS is ordinary and just below average. Walks and strikeouts are off because the automated strike zone is so small. The Athletic reported about the automated strike zone in two article. Lewis is quoted in one of them. With the robo umps pitchers are allowing 5.2 walks per nine innings. That isn’t close to the major league context for walks. It is also forcing pitchers to throw more center cut pitches to avoid walks. Some batters have the skill to really take advantage of the strike zone. I do worry though how they will respond to a different strike zone in the majors. It would almost be better to see them swing more in the minors. Unless a batter like Julien or Wallner have shown better than a 130 wRC+ across multiple years I don’t think stats from just this year or part of this year can be used to justify a call up. The argument really needs to be made without the stat line. I don’t think the stat line supports the notion that Martin put up a better OPS against left handed pitching than Luplow or a better option than Castro for the remainder of the season. Does Martin bring skills to the team that can’t be found in the return of Castro? Do they need them both? Maybe. He needs to be put on the 40 this winter so a move to the roster is imminent. Miranda can be moved to the 60 day IL since he isn’t able to throw yet. Luplow can be optioned and Castro can continue rehab assignment for a while. Castro also can be optioned.
  2. jorgenswest
    The sun and shadows in the last few innings made it incredibly difficult on the batters. Those are very difficult conditions to bunt in and very difficult conditions to stay in the zone as a hitter. Gallo doesn’t swing out of the zone often and did a good job of making the pitcher throw strikes after the first two batters couldn’t lay off some pitches that weren’t close. Turned around the inning. Great work from Keuchel.
  3. jorgenswest
    Not possible.
  4. jorgenswest
    I couldn’t disagree more.
  5. jorgenswest
    Is the timing right moving into the two series with Cleveland? In a 5 man rotation it should line up as Maeda, Lopez and Gray in the first series followed by Lopez, Gray and Ryan in the second series? What does it look like in a 6 man rotation? Is the rest from a 6th starter more important than throwing your best atms against Cleveland? I am not a believer that an extra day of rest is as beneficial as a skipped start. I would suggest that it might be better to win the Cleveland series and close out the division early. Once secured give any of the starters real rest to end the season. edit: had I noticed I would have simply liked what DJL44 said much more succinctly.
  6. jorgenswest
    Royce Lewis’ thoughts on AAA robo umps appeared in the Athletic today. I don’t think he believes they are ready though he says it is very advantageous to hitters with a very tight strike zone in AAA. If used in the majors Barry Bonds’ walk record would not survive. My thoughts all year is that the our perception AAA and AA performance is very distorted with the high run scoring environment. Maybe this is part of the problem. Pitchers either walk guys or give them a pitch that gets too much if the strike zone. edit: I read the Lewis interview from the Athletic’s wind up. Jason Stark had a longer article today. My takeaway is that it is not close to ready. One minor leaguer said that it is different in each park. Minor league execs have made this complaint also. AAA only uses robo umps half the games. They use the challenge system in the other. In the robo games there are 5.2 walks per nine according to Stark. I really thought it was closer to ready. I also now wonder about the accuracy of what I see on TV. That doesn’t excuse the Wallner calls. I don’t need a box to see those are low for the side view. Harder with the pitcher view. Hopefully umpires are given feedback if they are calling too many low strikes for tall batters or too many high strikes for short batters. Adjusting the strike zone for each batter has to be one of the biggest hurdles for an umpire.
  7. jorgenswest
    The one real impactful addition would be Buxton playing centerfield with a bat that belongs near the top of the line up. He can change their playoff outlook. Unless there is concern that this group can’t get them to the playoffs I think it is possible to change to many spots and lose some cohesion as a team. It is going to take multiple 80th percentile and better stretches to match other more talented teams. They need to keep anyone that can provide that game changing upside even if unlikely.
  8. jorgenswest
    The Mets really favored the high upside under 20 prospects. They also received a 2023 top 50 international prospect for Pham. It probably would have taken Twins top international signings of the last few years. Those players are so far away and often don’t establish themselves before they are a 40 man roster decision. Falvey and Levine must feel pretty secure not to engage the Mets in trading off the very young few away prospects for players like Robertson and Pham that were needed.
  9. jorgenswest
    I advocated for non-tendering Pagán and signing a free agent. The Twins would probably have been worse off with my plan. Pagán has been as good or better than many of the similarly salaried free agents. In hindsight a more expensive Matt Moore would have been a great addition. Andrew Chafin (2 yrs 18 million) and Michael Fulmer not so much.
  10. jorgenswest
    There are four relievers listed in MLBs top 23 deadline trades. Since they were moved it is fair to believe the Twins could have made a better offer and won the deal. I was interested to know how they were performing with their new clubs as well as what it might take to win the deal. They could have acquired Jordan Hicks, David Robertson, Scott Barlow or Paul Sewald by beating the offer of the other team. .Could the Twins have avoided disaster by adding one of the 4? What would it take? I looked at the deals in the Twins Forum.
  11. jorgenswest
    There are four relievers listed in MLBs top 23 deadline trades. Since they were moved it is fair to believe the Twins could have made a better offer and won the deal. I was interested to know how they were performing with their new clubs as well as what it might take to win the deal. Jordan Hicks was dealt to Toronto for two minor league pitchers. Robberse is the better of the two and probably slots in between Canterino and Woods-Richardson among Twin minor league pitchers What would it take? Matt Canterino and Cory Lewis Hicks with Toronto: 1-2, 3 saves, ERA 4.00 Paul Sewald was dealt to the Diamondbacks for a major league utility man an outfield prospect with major league time and an infielder hitting really well at AA. What would it take? Larnach, Severino, Miller. Larnach is better than Canzone but Severino doesn’t have the value of Bliss. Miller might help put them win it. Sewald with Arizona: 0-1, 6 saves, 3.38 ERA David Robertson was dealt to the Marlins for a minor league catcher and infielder in their teens. Mets going for upside. What would it take? Maybe Acuna and Chivilli. The young players are not a match for Vargas. Salas might be of interest to them here Robertson with Miami: 0-2, 4 saves, 7.00 ERA Scott Barlow was dealt to the Padres for two minor league pitchers including their #10 prospect. It is a similar package as the Hicks deal though both are young at 21. What would it take? Woods-Richardson and Hidalgo. Maybe. The Twins don’t have good matches for 21 year old pitchers. Barlow with San Diego: 0-1, 5.40 ERA Did the Twins miss out here? Should they have jumped at any of these deals? Would you have preferred they stand pat?
  12. jorgenswest
    Jake Cave is probably a good comp. They both had 5 seasons with opportunities in the majors coming into this season. They both can play CF. They both hit left handed. They both have had success at AAA. Cave has a career OPS of 710 vs Stevenson’s 687. Defense in CF is a toss up. Stevenson has the better DRS. Cave has the better OAA. Cave is maybe a little better but it is close.
  13. jorgenswest
    I do miss the September call ups where the AAA season ends in early September and teams can go to 40. It was fun to see some prospects and sometimes an opportunity for a long minor leaguer to put on a major league uniform for the first time. I don’t miss the constant switching of pitchers from the large bullpens though I think the three batter rule mostly would have solved that problem. This article would have made sense in that time.
  14. jorgenswest
    I am not a believer that an extra day off for a starter makes a significant difference long term. They just had three days off in 11. I wrote heading into it that they had an opportunity to run a 4 man rotation for about two weeks through the 24th. My interest was dropping Keuchel but it could have been used for Ober. Instead of giving Ober an extra day off twice why not give him real rest that might make a difference the rest of the season? That is probably not a field staff decision but one that comes from the front office who would have needed to option Ober or IL him to get that rest.
  15. jorgenswest
    Floro gave up six singles. He wasn’t walking batters. He didn’t give up home runs. Two of the singles had an XBA in the 100s. Correa should have been given an error on the missed double play. There was another throw from Wallner offline that put runners in scoring position. Farmer could have come off the bag there also. As for Baldelli he sees Floro strike out batter three and the next two batters hit balls for singles with exit velocities in the 60s. Batter number six hits a double play soft liner to Correa that he gets every time except yesterday. I don’t see indicators in batters three through six that Floro was not effective. I will argue that Baldelli should not have had the infield in as early as he did that inning. The sixth inning was a team effort and the biggest burden of letting the game get away should be on Correa’s shoulders with an assist from Baldelli playing the infield in at that point.
  16. jorgenswest
    One of their top international signings is a catcher. He is years away but pretty equivalent to drafting a high school catcher.
  17. jorgenswest
    May 22, 1969 Baltimore’s starter right handed Jim Hardin was pulled in the first inning and replaced by lefty Marcelino Lopez. Cesar Tovar pinch hit for Graig Nettles in inning 3 to get the platoon advantage. They also pinch hit Mitterrand for Roseboro but Roseboro did bat twice. Pitchers were rarely pulled early so getting one at bat and then being pinch hit for was more rare at the time but it happened then. I suppose managers also needed to make sure to save bats to pinch hit for the pitcher but it still happened. I did not need to search very hard to find this. I know how both Martin and Weaver used the platoon. I remember how Nettles, Allison, Tovar early in the season, Uhlaender, Roseboro, Mitterwald were used. Here is another that year when Quilici was pulled after one at bat and pinch hit for by Uhlaender to gain the platoon advantage. Washington’s starter Moore only pitched two innings. edit: apologies for adding a reply after squirrel. Didn’t see it until submitted. I am out now.
  18. jorgenswest
    Take a look at the game logs for their teammate Graig Nettles in 1969. Billy Martin platooned him almost exclusively. You will see games where he was pulled after 1 AB and games where he came in pretty early with a change in a pitcher. Tovar was off to a slow start that year so he platooned for a while with Nettles at 3B. He also platooned with Allison. I have no doubt that if Martin or Earl Weaver were managing today they would pinch hit early after the opener was taken out.
  19. jorgenswest
    Looking a little further ahead… The juggling of Keuchel and the rotation with the off days has Maeda, Lopez and Gray lined up for the Cleveland series. In the second Cleveland series it should be Lopez, Gray and maybe Ryan. Well done! Last September heading into an important series against Cleveland where they could have retaken first place they had Bundy, Archer and Winder lined up against Bieber, McKenzie and Quantrill. They lost all three. If that didn’t knock them out for good they were lined up poorly for the next Cleveland series also and lost the first three. In eight important September games against Cleveland they lost the first 6 and were 7 out before Ryan and Gray had a chance. The rotation will be weaker against the Rangers this year but the Rangers will also see less of Lopez and Gray before the playoffs.
  20. jorgenswest
    Other teams use this strategy of starting a bench player like Luplow against an opener and then pinch hitting once the opener leaves. Another option is to start Gallo a bat him at the bottom thinking that the opener will be out of the game by the time that spot comes up.
  21. jorgenswest
    It would be fun if they could somehow go back to the old video and superimpose the strike zone box. I know there would be challenges knowing when the ball was at the plate but I would enjoy seeing pitchers like Glavine and Spahn work the strike zone and umpire.
  22. jorgenswest
    I wonder how much you would pay for Farmer’s third year arb at 33. I looked at last year’s arb 3 players and really couldn’t find a comp because most similar players were not tendered an offer. For example Luke Voit had a close second year arb salary (5.45 million) with a season of 0.2 fWAR. He was projected by MLBTR for 8.2 million. Farmer starts this year higher at 5.85 and has 0.8 fWAR. Would that project him for 8.6 million or more? Another comp is Urshela. Urshela was at 6.55 and projected at 9.2. He asked for 10 and lost getting 8.4 instead. He probably gets low 9s if he asks for that amount. The Twins did tender a deal for Urshela but likely had a trade in place to give control to the Angels. Urshela was going into his age 31 season and had a better arb 2 season. I don’t think they find a similar trade partner for Farmer. I think Polanco has for more upside for what is likely less than 2 million dollars more in comparison. That amount is small and not going to impact the roster and budget. If they pay Farmer that arb award they won’t be releasing him and he likely will decline further at age 33. In my mind the choice is Polanco or neither and I am leaning Polanco. If neither they could try to pick up someone in the 2.5 million range that would hopefully be a salary they would be willing to cut loose. Solano was in that range this year. Farmer may not find offers much better as a free agent.
  23. jorgenswest
    He did seem to have a lot of movement that made it difficult for hitters. He threw a low 90s cutter, slider and sometimes a slow change off of his cutter. He appears to have movement that is hard to teach and also hard to command. Would you keep him on the 40 man into next season? I would use his second option and keep him on the 40 man roster for his age 23 season next year.
  24. jorgenswest
    Not at all my perception.
  25. jorgenswest
    Keuchel’s command was spot on today and he had the skill to really take advantage of this umpire’s strike zone. Fun to watch.
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