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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    when assessing relievers, I like WPA, Win Probability Added. There was the article about Jax having some bad luck, that seems to jive and Jax would likely be in that 5 range, and Brock Stewart probably wouldn’t be number 1, probably 4 so.. Duran Lopez Thielbar Stewart Jax De Leon Headrick Sands Winder Rodriguez SWR Alcala Pagan Moran Passes the sniff test
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed with your desire for fairness to Pagan, disagree with your assessment. Pagan has a -.27 WPA. I would call that reasonably effective in very low leverage. The problem is, he’s a veteran reliever, Rocco needs the minor league/quad A development pipeline to be those reasonably effective low leverage relievers to try to turn them into effective high leverage relievers. Sands, Winder, Deleon they should be the low leverage guys who become high leverage some day. Pagan needs to succeed under pressure or get DFA’d, but they don’t have anyone chomping at the bit to take his place.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    We’re Tippi Hedren?
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Welcome to TD! Great first post
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    I feel terrible for Mahle! When healthy he’s been solid, but considering where he’s at, the injury timeline, and the upside, I’m not sure a Pineda/Paddack type deal makes sense. They already have Paddack on that deal, have a bunch of guys with similar upside in AAA, and need to extend Gray or acquire another front of rotation type. I wish Mahle the best and hope he can land that type of deal somewhere else.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    One of the worst plays of the night was Corea’s 5 hopper to Kiriloff at first (in the 5th????). Overall it was a pretty crisp game.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed on small sample size. Not sure I agree with the pitching and defense winning titles. To your point, you must have good run prevention in order to Win a World Series. But run prevention alone frequently ends with a team below .500 record. Looking at the last 5 years, Dodgers and Astros have been most frequently deep in the post season, winning World Series, and having some of the best run prevention in baseball. They also scored a ton of runs! It’s differential that matters. Teams that score more runs than their opponents win more. A team that gives up 162 runs in a season can still go under .500 if they also don’t score any runs, just the same as if they score 900 runs but give up 2000.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed on the strike-thrower point, he has toggled year to year between 14% bb-k and 27% and he’s currently in the 14% range in the very small sample that he’s done several times in the minors. I think he’s done a better job expanding the bottom of the zone, getting righties to swing at down and away more frequently. His bb-k rate is on the better end of his career, but the GB rate .65 vs historic under .4 is way up and hr/fb and slugging are way down. The slugging part might creep up as more GBs squirt into the outfield, but thus far a ton of weak contact. 2021 31% swings at down and away to righties 2022 46% swings down and away this year 58%! He already has 92 pitches down and away this year, vs 430 all of last year, and getting more swings with great weak contact 21 percentile in average exit velo. Terry Ryan and Bert Blyleven would be proud!
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Those were my thought too. Hoping for recovery on the shorter end of the timeline. wondering if compensating for the previous injury caused some new injury. Likely we’ll never know
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Castro isn’t hitting “well” but I think a strong case can be made that Castro is indeed hitting better than Gordon. Pick your stat, Gordon’s K rate is lower, but that’s the only one that paints a rosey picture. My favorite wRC+ has Castro 18% below league average (bad) and Gordon 118% below league average. That’s impressively bad.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    I have been firmly on the Nick Gordon band wagon. He’s had three months about 200 plate appearances worth of very good hitting, and around 500 plate appearances worth of AWFUL hitting. Not just bad…. at some point, you gotta cut bait. im rooting for the guy. I want G-Cinco to succeed in the worst way, but it’s looking pretty bleak.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Cano off to a great start to the season
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Larnach’s wRC+ is 115. He started hot, cooled off in the middle, and heated up again this past week. He went real cold for a while
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    With Polanco active and playing well, this team improves quite a bit with Farmer on the bench and one of Castro/Gordon. Right now it looks like Castro would be the preferred option. agreed, Julien isn’t getting recalled to ride the pine
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    That is POUNDING the ZONE!
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    Glad to hear Maeda’s injury wasn’t arm related. I was multitasking during meetings and missed important details.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, however how much leash can they afford to give him to prove it? He’s not the only one not pulling his weight, and at some point soon the FO needs to pull the plug on these guys. It starts with the guys with options, but doesn’t end there. May 1 is 10 days away and if they don’t get the bats going soon, the pitching won’t always be able to overcome the anemic hitting.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Welcome to TD! go Fort Myers Mighty Mussels!
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Me too
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    I have been on the Nick Gordon bandwagon, and still agree with you whole heartedly. He doesn’t field well enough to not hit, and he doesn’t walk so when it falls apart, it really falls apart.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    How many hitters on the roster have earned the “every day hitter, roster lock” tag? This team cant find runs with both hands and a map. Kiriloff healthy = immediate lineup insertion
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Does Garlick have enough service time to reject optional assignment? Would he?
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    As others have said, I wouldn’t call 100 wRC+ a solid start for a corner outfielder. I’d like to see the sample size expand before making a pronouncement, but so far, need more production.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    well, I’d say yes, they do care, every bit as much as the fans, or more. https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-twins-spring-training-rocco-baldelli-sonny-gray-kyle-garlick-world-baseball-classic/600253105/?clmob=y&c=n&clmob=y&c=n “Baldelli also repeated his exhortation from last week to the pitching staff: That it's up to each individual to do what's necessary to improve, but that the ultimate goal is a team one: Winning, first and foremost.” "That's the only reason I'm still playing this game. Winning is the only thing that matters," said Gray, 33. "Goosebumps even talking about it, because it's something I personally believe wholeheartedly. Whatever goals you may have stem from winning."
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    Cite your stats please. How do you know Rocco’s record in 1 run games is bad, how do you know a good manager “always” has a winning record in 1 run games?
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