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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    This gets at the heart of the debate. Is Buxton’s health and capability to play CF in Falvine and Baldelli’s control? I don’t think we know if he is healthy enough and capable to play CF. I do think the FO and Baldelli know. I also think if Buxton were healthy enough and capable to play CF, he would be. everyone, Buxton, Baldelli, Falvey, Correa, would rather have Buck in CF than DH.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    As an SCSU alumnus I found the jab quite funny. Thanks Royce!
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    Go Twins! let’s see:
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    I would say Pagan is the most unrepairable piece of the bullpen problem. Jax and J.Lopez being ineffective and Thielbar hurt are bigger, but more fixable.
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Firmly agree with the OP and @gman. Jax has had a rough month and shouldn’t be this bad forever. Pagan has been a train wreck for 3 years, why see if you can fix him in the 4th, if you couldn’t fix him in the 3rd? further, there’s too many low leverage relievers on this team, they can’t afford to have firmly established low leverage relievers. Stewart was a great find, they need to turn Pagan’s spot over to another kid, see if they have another lightning in a bottle reliever in the minors.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    1) while they miss having more hitters, this rotation is awesome and P. Lopez has contributed to winning far more games than Arraez would have. Arraez WPA season to date .33, Lopez .70. Lopez has contributed twice as much to win expectancy outcomes as Arraez has. 2/3 - Buxton is still hurt. Is Buxton Perma-DH? 4 - agreed, he likely won’t stay this bad all year. 5 - Duran is the “true closer” and an elite reliever in the MLB. If he’s not good enough, there likely isn’t a reliever good enough for you. the bullpen is a problem, issue is no depth and they haven’t developed or signed depth. 3 reliable relievers out of 8 is not good. 6 - lineup inconsistency, can you provide data to back this up? Do hitters that hit in the same spot in the lineup produce better results?
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    This! they also need to hit more. They won’t win many games scoring only 3 runs
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    They’ve done the bonus pool slot maneuvering a few times, and have played it straight a few times. You could be on to their strategy for the draft.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Wade has played 6 games in CF field being traded. The Giants don’t see him as a CF.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    @Cody Christieyou missed THE pivotal moment in Trevor Plouffe’s media career! January 2020 he was guest at the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown with some guy named Kent Hrbek that jump started his podcasting career im sure it was Gleeman and The Geek and not Jomboy that launched the empire :)
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    when assessing relievers, I like WPA, Win Probability Added. There was the article about Jax having some bad luck, that seems to jive and Jax would likely be in that 5 range, and Brock Stewart probably wouldn’t be number 1, probably 4 so.. Duran Lopez Thielbar Stewart Jax De Leon Headrick Sands Winder Rodriguez SWR Alcala Pagan Moran Passes the sniff test
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed with your desire for fairness to Pagan, disagree with your assessment. Pagan has a -.27 WPA. I would call that reasonably effective in very low leverage. The problem is, he’s a veteran reliever, Rocco needs the minor league/quad A development pipeline to be those reasonably effective low leverage relievers to try to turn them into effective high leverage relievers. Sands, Winder, Deleon they should be the low leverage guys who become high leverage some day. Pagan needs to succeed under pressure or get DFA’d, but they don’t have anyone chomping at the bit to take his place.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    We’re Tippi Hedren?
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Welcome to TD! Great first post
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    I feel terrible for Mahle! When healthy he’s been solid, but considering where he’s at, the injury timeline, and the upside, I’m not sure a Pineda/Paddack type deal makes sense. They already have Paddack on that deal, have a bunch of guys with similar upside in AAA, and need to extend Gray or acquire another front of rotation type. I wish Mahle the best and hope he can land that type of deal somewhere else.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    One of the worst plays of the night was Corea’s 5 hopper to Kiriloff at first (in the 5th????). Overall it was a pretty crisp game.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed on small sample size. Not sure I agree with the pitching and defense winning titles. To your point, you must have good run prevention in order to Win a World Series. But run prevention alone frequently ends with a team below .500 record. Looking at the last 5 years, Dodgers and Astros have been most frequently deep in the post season, winning World Series, and having some of the best run prevention in baseball. They also scored a ton of runs! It’s differential that matters. Teams that score more runs than their opponents win more. A team that gives up 162 runs in a season can still go under .500 if they also don’t score any runs, just the same as if they score 900 runs but give up 2000.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed on the strike-thrower point, he has toggled year to year between 14% bb-k and 27% and he’s currently in the 14% range in the very small sample that he’s done several times in the minors. I think he’s done a better job expanding the bottom of the zone, getting righties to swing at down and away more frequently. His bb-k rate is on the better end of his career, but the GB rate .65 vs historic under .4 is way up and hr/fb and slugging are way down. The slugging part might creep up as more GBs squirt into the outfield, but thus far a ton of weak contact. 2021 31% swings at down and away to righties 2022 46% swings down and away this year 58%! He already has 92 pitches down and away this year, vs 430 all of last year, and getting more swings with great weak contact 21 percentile in average exit velo. Terry Ryan and Bert Blyleven would be proud!
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Those were my thought too. Hoping for recovery on the shorter end of the timeline. wondering if compensating for the previous injury caused some new injury. Likely we’ll never know
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Castro isn’t hitting “well” but I think a strong case can be made that Castro is indeed hitting better than Gordon. Pick your stat, Gordon’s K rate is lower, but that’s the only one that paints a rosey picture. My favorite wRC+ has Castro 18% below league average (bad) and Gordon 118% below league average. That’s impressively bad.
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    I have been firmly on the Nick Gordon band wagon. He’s had three months about 200 plate appearances worth of very good hitting, and around 500 plate appearances worth of AWFUL hitting. Not just bad…. at some point, you gotta cut bait. im rooting for the guy. I want G-Cinco to succeed in the worst way, but it’s looking pretty bleak.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Cano off to a great start to the season
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Larnach’s wRC+ is 115. He started hot, cooled off in the middle, and heated up again this past week. He went real cold for a while
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    With Polanco active and playing well, this team improves quite a bit with Farmer on the bench and one of Castro/Gordon. Right now it looks like Castro would be the preferred option. agreed, Julien isn’t getting recalled to ride the pine
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    That is POUNDING the ZONE!
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