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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    This! The few reports I’ve seen in little blurb, hard to trust format, is that Kirilloff is swinging well and on-track for a normal spring training. we don’t know, doesn’t always mean “bad” it means we “don’t know”. I share the same assumptions. If Kepler isn’t traded, Larnach gets a heavy rotation through DH.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    I would call a hearty belly laugh time well spent. great work Stu
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    I believe subscription to Stathead from b-ref can get you access to the underlying data.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    “The only nits I pick are that I like all numbers on a "relative to all other players" stat. A 3.75 FIP in 2023 meant a roughly average pitcher. In 2003, it meant a borderline all-star. Using FIP+ (or minus if you prefer) helps identify performance relative to the league at the time. OOA is a relative stat already, it just was not mentioned as such in your post. I think that is worth pointing out.” @Minny505 i love this post and wanted to unpack this a bit. you caught me in between understanding what happened historically and predicting future outcomes. Well done. FIP predicts ERA but neglects context. FIP+ provides the relative context but isn’t very predictive. (I always prefer the plus (minus seems counterintuitive to me) how do you pull together both the context and predictive without writing massive paragraphs? I’m a lazy typist.
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    UI matters more than we talk about, but it’s very subjective. agreed, baseball Savant is terrible on mobile. FG’s glossary is a pain in the butt on mobile too. Adds cover it up and it drives me bonkers!
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    Why wRC vs b-ref OPS+? The differences aren’t very big on the page
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Inspired by Brad My post there: WAR gets calculated slightly differently depending on your source. I like Fangraphs. FWAR is the shorthand for Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement the link goes to the Fangraphs library where they define the stats. For hitting I like wRC+ because it puts hitters relative to all other hitters (100 as average) by components of run creation. For pitchers FIP is a great stat. It predicts ERA better than historic ERA does by calculating out if a pitched were to experience league average BABIP For fielding I like OAA… …afterwards I started thinking about if the shift and Manfredball might change my thoughts about my preference for WAR and if BWAR might overtake FWAR because BWAR weights fielding/pitchers to a greater extent.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    What’s your go site to for stats? why? Mix and match? what are your favorite stats for specific applications? why?
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Had a blast! Great event as usual!
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    While I agree with your opinion that Falvine received great value for Arraez, value is relative. Value is opinion. Opinion is not fact. if the Marlins GM feels Arraez was worth it, the Marlins got value too. after all, it takes two to tango.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    I don’t see the Twins as a juggernaut either, and Tigers/Royals are less of the pushovers they have been
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    The odds of an NFL style below .500 division winner skyrocketed.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    But the division weighted schedule is gone right?
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    That’s how they’ll overcome the shift ban! 2 outfielders and an extra infielder!
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    And 16 is the composite I rely on daily. There’s something for everyone!
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    It was even
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    Or 5 and fly
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    I’m not against bringing in a RH bench bat, but Gurriel would not be an improvement over what they have. There aren’t really good options in free agency right now, anyways.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Correct, and neither against righties or lefties is he above 100 wRC+. 96 against righties, 88 against lefties. So he has reverse splits of what you want and neither are particularly good. Garlick, on the other hand… 126 wRC+ against Lefties…. 63 against Righties. 8M+ for Profar interests me as much as Gallo… that is to say I hate the Gallo signing, and would hate Profar signing as well.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Sano is 2” taller and 60lbs heavier
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    The Twins traded away Mr Balky knees…. maybe injuries are a part of the game?
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    So the Twins offered 10/285, that was declined. The Twins already had all the same information at this point, knew the risk, took it. Correa declined. second agreed deal falls apart, Twins jump back in with 6/200 plus vesting options that can bring it up to 10/270. the Twins used the Mets/Giants situation to leverage a smaller contract, no? The Mets are particularly dubious, but the Twins were advantageous in their second crack at it. Was Correa to Boras comment “make me a Twin” a bit more genuine than it felt?
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Mets had a total contract higher than the one he signed, just less guaranteed.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Waiting out the market, all three or four times, also caused them to miss out on the tier two free agents that would have marginally improved the team without giving up prospects. In 22 they missed out on players like Jose Abreu who would have been a significant improvement to the lineup, and would have not cost a budget shifting amount where they couldn’t afford Correa’s 33M. 6 years in the making to not significantly improve the team and by shear luck not taking a huge step backwards. The FO does deserve credit for freeing up the cash to sign Correa and actually getting the deal done. They also deserve the blame for having a huge budget surplus and not consuming it in ways that significantly improve the team. There’s trades still potentially out there, but prospects are the capital that improve the major league roster, and that cash is pretty low right now considering how much budget surplus there was coming into this offseason.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    Point of clarification, per MLBTRthe Twins reached agreements with 7 of 8 and appear to be going through arbitration with Arraez.
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