Richie the Rally Goat

I have loved hearing Perkins (especially) and Morneau on the stats explainers. A little over a year ago I wrote up a blog about John Madden’s impact on football and MLB’s need for a teacher, maybe Perkins is that guy. I absolutely love it, I love that the Twins are leading the way, and it’s making for a fun season (at least for me)

I predict the Twins lose the opener but win the following two, taking the series go Twins!

Sinclair bought FSN, the agreement was already in place. At one point, a legacy of the VS1 merger, the Pohlads owned a minority stake in FSN. The TV contract likely reflected that

The Athletic article didn’t specify, but here’s a phrase that stands out; ”Diamond also has not paid the Diamondbacks, but that occurred just prior to the commencement of the bankruptcy, so the team instead is listed as a creditor on the Chapter 11 petition. Several teams noted in the motion that they reserved their rights to join in the motion if Diamond also fails to pay them in the future. These teams are the Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Rays and Texas Rangers.” so who didn’t get paid appears to be already past due invoices. The invoices have different due dates.

New wrinkle, the MLB filed for emergency payment to the Twins and Guardians. Odd they didn’t file for the diamondbacks too https://theathletic.com/4385805/2023/04/05/mlb-diamond-sports-bankruptcy-twins-guardians/

And no contract, so it’s $15 per month cheaper, but if you only want the service during the Twins season it’s about $1100 cheaper over the life of the 2 year Directv contract.

The last update I saw was the Twins did not have streaming rights with Bally. Don’t bother with the App.

Sanchez is on a minor league deal https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/catcher-gary-sánchez-gets-minor-league-deal-from-giants/ar-AA19me4n

No, but that hasn’t stopped us from discussing. Links below MLB has stated if push comes to shove, it will air games on mlb.tv without blackout restrictions.

25-30 home runs and striking out 200 times would be very difficult to watch, but valuable.

“The bigger question surrounds which version of Gallo’s bat comes north to Target Field. Will he be the behemoth that slugged 38 home runs in three different seasons? Or will he be the heir-apparent to Miguel Sano’s throne of punch outs?” Both is a strong possibility. After a couple dingers today, I am more optimistic he can contribute something with the stick, but it’s only 3 games. Too early to tell

Or maybe Do on MLB.com? oh wait….

162 and OH!

Name IP ERA FIP Griffin Jax 72.1 3.36 3.17 Jhoan Duran 67.2 1.86 2.52 Emilio Pagan 63.0 4.43 4.21 Caleb Thielbar 59.1 3.49 2.42 Trevor Megill 45.0 4.80 3.29 Tyler Duffey 44.0 4.91 4.79 Jovani Moran 40.2 2.21 1.78 Jharel Cotton 35.0 2.83 5.48 Joe Smith 27.1 4.61 6.30 Michael Fulmer 24.1 3.70 4.14 Jorge Lopez 22.2 4.37 4.35 Cole Sands 18.1 3.44 3.55 Cody Stashak 16.1 3.86 2.07 Aaron Sanchez 16.0 5.06 4.11 Josh Winder 14.0 5.79 6.33 Yennier Cano 13.2 9.22 6.55 Danny Coulombe 12.1 1.46 3.84 Ronny Henriquez 11.2 2.31 3.97 599.7 3.98388888888889 4.04833333333333 You make a good point. Expanding scope paints a different picture. I used a simple average, because ERA is already an average, but I used an arbitrary 40 innings as a cutoff (not rate stat to cherry pick). 30 innings or 20 innings might have been more representative. I don’t think 12 innings of Danny Coloumbe makes sense to include in the sample. He only pitched 12 innings.

I don’t have an agenda, I like data and want to frame up outcomes vs prediction. We know the outcomes based on how the events transpired. We don’t know what the outcomes would have been if the events were managed differently. I’m using FIP to predict what would have happened in if the Bullpen pitched fewer innings and Sonny Gray pitched more innings. The assertion that Sonny Gray would have pitched the same, were he to have pitched more innings than he did, is false. We don’t know what what the outcomes would have been. Also, Sonny Gray got shut down after 119.2 innings, due to injury. Were he to pitch more innings if he pitched longer starts, the theory behind hundred pitch starts says “no, a pitcher only has so many bullets in the chamber, and it’s better to get 100 high quality bullets, than 100 high quality and 20 bad ones”. So why FIP as a predictor, rather than ERA as a outcome? Because I don’t know about the meatball that Sonny Gray never served up for a grand slam or the complete game shutout he never pitched, because Baldelli had a quick hook. FIP is the best predictor I have.

If we want to know what would happen if we made a change, that’s a prediction and FIP fits better.

I’m a goat, I’m covered in hair. Thanks for asking

Mahle and Maeda are both coming back from injury, Sonny Gray pitches 120 innings per year on average, and Joe Ryan pitched a personal record 147 innings last year…. I bet the cumulative long man innings exceed Maeda’s and maybe Mahle too

It’s absolutely the place to be critical. Just because I support the manager in his general use of the bullpen doesn’t mean I agree with all of his moves. He started the season handed a bad pitching staff, and the trades backfired with injury (Paddack and Mahle). For instance. I think Rocco/FO should have played the St Paul shuttle on long relief/piggy backing to not blow out the bullpen. Rocco never really had that as an option, but I don’t really know how the dynamic works and Rocco’s ability to lobby.

Name IP ERA FIP Caleb Thielbar 59.1 3.49 2.42 Jhoan Duran 67.2 1.86 2.52 Griffin Jax 72.1 3.36 3.17 Jovani Moran 40.2 2.21 1.78 Trevor Megill 45.0 4.80 3.29 Emilio Pagan 63.0 4.43 4.21 Tyler Duffey 44.0 4.91 4.79 331.5 3.58 3.16857142857143 we don’t know how Gray would have pitched if he wasn’t pulled, but… The Twins had 7 relievers pitch 40 innings last year. The average ERA for those 7 pitchers was 3.58, compared to Gray’s 3.08 ‘22, 3.56 ERA career, 4.19 ‘21. the bullpen had on average 3.17 FIP compared to Gray’s 3.4/3.67/3.99. FIP is the best predictor of ERA (better than ERA) and so I’d still stick with the bullpen was the right choice.

Besides the metrics that show Bundy and Archer were two of the worst pitchers in the MLB last year 1) Joe Ryan pitched 147 innings, that was a record for him in his professional career 2) Sonny Gray 119.2 innings last year. He had a 3.08 ERA last year compared to 3.56 career, 4.19 2021. Last year he had 3.4 FIP, compared to 3.67 career, 3.99 2021. He’s pitched 1,192 innings in his 10 year career. Drum roll please….. that’s 119.2 innings per season. I’d say the Twins managed Gray’s innings pretty well, and stretched Ryan where it made sense.

THIS! If Forbes is accurate, it’s as much an indicator of past on the field product as it is the current year, if not more. Winning begets winning

That and last year’s record is the best predictor of ticket sales.

The Pohlads own Go 96.3 and B96 radio stations, quit their contract with AM1500 to air the Twins radio broadcasts on their own radio station which then brought in premium advertising revenue. That advertising revenue would not have been on the Twins’ books. I have no idea how much, but that was something that happened until they closed down the station. The Pohlads also owned Victory Sports One Network and aired Twins games there and received Ad revenue and cable network fees as a result. they owned a share of FSN (which was born out of the victory sports stuff) which may have brought them some ad revenue, I’m not sure how a minor ownership stake works in that case. It is unclear, but I wonder if they still own the minor stake in BSN today. I can’t find a reference. the Pohlads own dozens of companies, some of which do advertising and media, like Bring Me The News. Pohlad companies are a privately held, so they don’t have to publicly report earnings, so it’s hard to know where all their earnings come from, but they have in the past earned monetarily from the team. It makes sense to assume they continue to.

100%! case in point, the Green Bay Packers as a publicly held team, with public financials were one of the more cash poor (I know…) NFL franchises. Then they bought up all the houses and retail around Lambeau and built up the Title Town district and the Atrium which turned things around quite a bit (along with less Covid angst). this is the conundrum with the analysis. You have to scope the analysis to the question. But the impact to the owners (any owner, not just the Pohlads) is intertwined with many holdings. It’s beyond the scope of the question, but it’s not the reason the owner continues to own the team. why do we care if the Twins turn a profit for the Pohlads? For me, because if it ceases to be profitable they might sell or slash payroll. The devil I know is better than the devil I don’t. how do I know the Twins turn a profit for the Pohlads? I don’t.