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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    It would be awesome if the Twins could hire Castro as a coach/analyst. His experience would be a great asset in bringing context of the data to the players!
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    That seems pretty obvious that the best and youngest SS in the free agent market is the highest priority.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    It’s fair, it’s also fair to leave him out. The further away from the Terry Ryan era, especially the second one, the more I believe that TR was as responsible for the “cheap Pohlads” meme as the Pohlads were. It could have been the real prize was the $50k.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    Twins traded for Johan. The marlins drafted him rule 5
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    What’s his favorite flavor of Go-Gurt? Glo-Gurt? Dunkaroos? Strawberry Banbana? Mixed Berry? what temperature? Frozen? Refrigerated? Room temperature? the options are endless!
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, maybe starts with Lewis AND Lee.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Wow! That is a shocker! it would be great if the Twins could pull off a trade, but I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around what that offer might be
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    That’s a very normal reaction for me. Usually it goes something like: ”Ha! …. …. Hey!”
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    I didn’t ask you, I asked Bill. Bill can speak to his own claims without evidence.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    Why?
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    That makes the roster crowded, doesn’t it? When you need 8 players to fill 162 instead of 3
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    If not next year or two years, then why worry about Jeffers relative to automated strike zone? Jeffers likely won’t be a Twin in 4 years anyways. Unless you have Joe Mauer generational talent, you churn and burn catchers like relievers. Too many injuries
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Correct, I am trying to weigh deficiencies and strengths relative to each other. A higher percentage of strikes on 16,000 to 20,000 pitches caught, vs 5-10 passed balls, vs 40-45 steals. Does anyone disagree that more strikes is better than fewer strikes? Of course not. MLB is very slow to change. I mean the Selig ball lasted 20 years. The NFL used replay and challenges for 15 years before MLB did. If you think robo-umps are coming next year, I love your optimism, but do not share it. I believe it will be 5 years or more.
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    Jeffers was 8th (worst) in the AL with 5 passed balls last year. Sandy Leon was 6th worst with 6. 5 or 6 passed balls is maybe 3-4 runs per season at most. There were 2487 stolen bases league wide last year, 1/2 of a stolen base per team per game, that result in on average .3 of a run per steal. Jeffers had 31 steals on him, so that’s 10 runs estimated in the season. There are 100+ pitches thrown per game, getting a higher percentage of strikes impacts dozens of outcomes per game. Jeffers is ranked 21st (best) in the league. Improved counts puts at-bats in the pitchers’ favor. I think Jeffers is a high quality half of a catching tandem. The question is the other half. Narvaez seems like a good option. The Twins also have Banuelos, a good journeyman at the Saints but doesn’t hit, is supposed to be an excellent fielder. And Bechtold is progressing nicely (but doesn’t really hit either) if the rest of the lineup hits, Carlos Correa and a corner outfielder, DH… a black hole at catcher for half your games could be overcome.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    no returns, no exceptions
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    Hence The Big Short reference. Ash was dead-on.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    I would do Sands, Balazovich and Kepler for Jansen in a heartbeat. Guessing too low, but a start
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Well, the stats I quoted were ‘22 and career, so clearly last year isn’t all I care about. How’d Eovaldi do in ‘16, ‘17, ‘19? He’s had 2 very good seasons, 2 ok seasons, and several bad and injured ones.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Just ask Selena
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed 100% on the risks associated with buying high on a pitcher. The challenge is the Twins have not shown capability to buy low on a starting pitcher and get excess value. Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Martin Perez etc, etc…. Bad before becoming Twins, bad as Twins. While Nathan Eovaldi is a fine pitcher, he’s not better than Sonny Gray, and probably a touch below. Gray career - ERA 3.56, FIP 3.67, ‘22 - 3.08/3.41. Eovaldi career 4.16/3.83 ‘22 - 3.87/4.30. The Twins have tons of depth that’s all mid-rotation very similar to Nathan Eovaldi. What they don’t have is a front of the rotation starter, which Eovaldi is not. More importantly they don’t have innings. Last offseason the FO knew they weren’t getting traditional starter workload, but they still weren’t capable of executing a non-traditional pitching workload to get to 1500 innings, and Nathan Eovaldi exacerbates that deficit greatly. He’s pitched greater than 150 innings twice in his career. The Twins can’t rely on Eovaldi to be a traditional high quality 150-200 inning starting pitcher who also doesn’t move the needle on the front of the rotation. Go big, or develop internally
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    Correa fired his old agent for a reason. Stating you’re dragging it out, and actually dragging it out too long, are very different things.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Farmer 91 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR Andrus 105 wRC+ and 3.5 fWAR Andrus produced much more value than Farmer. I’m not certain Urshela was a salary dump as much as a roster spot opener. Time will tell if that was a salary dump, and some of the things DSP said in his late season interview suggested it could be. If that were the case, would we expect a better record than 2022? I would not.
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    He’s insurance. I don’t mind him as an insurance policy, but I’d rather see Andrus at SS with Farmer still the insurance policy. Past 5 or 6, then go get another utility guy to platoon w/ Farmer and throw a crap-ton of money at outfield. This team needs to score more runs and black hole at SS makes that harder
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Option A isn’t cheap depth. Option A is cheap starter with no depth. im a fan of cheap depth. Not a fan of cheap starter no depth.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    I forgot to offload Kepler to make room! @stringer bell now that you mention it, agreed. if I were to do this again, trade Kep, Larnach Left, Wallner Right. About 5% under budget
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