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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    Another excellent Nelson post. Love the dream targets (and think they'll probably remain dreams, but fun ones.) The real need short term on offense is to add by subtraction, and give the in-house options some extended run (even... SHOCKINGLY.. the chance to see pitchers from both sides) to see if they are the solution. Some of those in-house options like Larnach and Wallner aren't actually that young any more, and you HAVE to know soon what you actually have. The sooner we know, the better chances of making a good move (or not make) at the deadline. A couple deletions (Kepler and Garlick) are obvious (Kyle can stick as a depth piece in St Paul, but he should never have been called up in front of Wallner, and never should again; pretty sure Wallner can hit the crappy 80 OPS+ against LH that 'lefty-masher' Garlick has posted this year). The bullpen is another issue for another day (I'd love Pagan gone, but sadly I haven't exactly seen other pitchers pushing to make room the Wallner has done on the OF rotation). I expect Max will be either a bag o' balls transaction (or a A level flyer). I've seen others proposing Polanco or Buxton as trade chips; nobody is trading for players who can't stay healthy unless you want to give them away. (And it isn't some goofy FO strategy to not play Buxton in the outfield; he isn't physically capable of it right now by all appearances. And by reports in The Athletic.)
  2. PatPfund
    Let's recap. Mahle was not having a good year last year, got Cincy a nice package based on previous good years (something I never considered a Twins "win", but a worthy gamble). Then he hurt his shoulder and missed most of the second half. Then he tore up his elbow. So, if the price is 5 and 15, absolutely not. Spend $15 million on a healthy arm next year (or $20 since that's what you'd sink on Mahle).
  3. PatPfund
    Max's ranking doesn't surprise me at all. He has been good-to-great defensively throughout, and had some potent (and one stellar) offensive year. But what jumps out about the top Ten isn't really greatness, but the lack of extended greatness we've had in the OF since the Senators moved here. In 63-odd years we've had exactly 5 serious long-term OF stars (Byron doesn't make that cut yet, and may never as the injuries and lack of OF time pile up). Not even one per decade, which isn't great. I love Max (have a Kepler jersey), and after some time will focus mostly on the fun times, but am unlikely to ever think of him as one of the greatest (any more than I think that of Shane Mack, though I have fond memories of him as well; good not great player).
  4. PatPfund
    It isn't really time yet, but that time may be coming fast as more of the younger players start to take their deserved spot in the batting order. The real problem isn't Byron's bat compared to the rest of the league, it is Byron's bat (or really Byron/MAT combined) vs an alternative (or the alternative/Byron combined). (And FYI, you say "including" MAT's better performance in April like you should only count the worst games. Not sure why; output goes up and down for everyone.) Of the alternatives you mention, only Polanco makes much sense to me (Gallo's value plummets if you take away D, Correa has been dreadful so far, and probably should go on the DL), because it is really Kepler keeping Wallner (and Larnach) in the minors more than it is Byron. But mixing in Jorge, Solano, Kirilloff, Lewis, Farmer, Jeffers, and giving Wallner/Larnach more play in the DH spot makes a lot of sense, and if Miranda snaps out of it and re-finds himself, the pressure to get Byron back in the OF grows rapidly. This offense needs more quality at-bats, even if it means heightened risk to Buxton, and Max Kepler being traded/DFA'd soon. (Love Max, but he looks like this year's Tyler Duffey.)
  5. PatPfund
    To answer the OP's question directly, no I am not worried. Why? The answers are all right there; catchers are primarily important on D, and "all accounts" say he is doing that job well. His professional play behind the plate is a big reason the SPs are MLB front runners in several categories. The hitting is up and down, but that is almost always the case when you compare full data sets (as in complete seasons) to partial data (as in a couple months). I still love the signing, and am not discounting Vasquez's example for helping Jeffers mature. As others have mentioned, a more equal split in duty would be helpful to both, and that doesn't make the Vasquez contract bad; it confirms the wisdom of signing (and paying) a true pro to an area of deep need.
  6. PatPfund
    I really like Max; have a Kepler jersey. And I think he has been awful offensively for years. I also hate the shift ban as giving in to limited skill players too stupid to learn to hit the other way (or even lay down a freakin' bunt if you are a lefty; looking at you, Max). But... The early going makes it appear the shift ban is doing two things. 1. Kepler is getting some hits that last year would have been outs. 2. (Maybe) the extra hits seem to have him more relaxed at the plate instead of mentally fighting (and losing) the mental game against the shift. Coming into the year, I wanted the Twins to serve the teams needs and not let Kepler stand in the way of a better younger player. Kepler hitting more like .240/.250 with pop (instead of a weak .210/.220) IS the better player until the kids prove better. Which is the way it should be on a good team.
  7. PatPfund
    The real problem is we are not just short a middle reliever. Moran skipped AAA (except for a few messy outings), and it looked for a while (last year) like that worked. Now his MLB stats are starting to get messy as well, and it may just be he isn't good enough/isn't ready. Pagán hasn't had a few bad outings, he was a toss-in on a trade because his HR/innings pitched is brutal, and has been for years. And there is the revolving door at the multi-innings spot (where Sands has actually had several chances to kick in the door; unfortunately the frisbee slider comes with erratic control, and when Cole has to throw a strike, the fastball is very, very hittable). These three weak links haven't burned us (too much) so far, but it is a long season, and we can't essentially cede games down a few runs and the SP out after 3, because we can't afford to burn out our "A" RPs, and the only alternative is a rack of Molotov cocktail arms. Winder would be nice (if healthy). Maeda is possibly a great alternative (putting a Grade A arm in the 'pen, and calling on our deeper reserve of AAA starters). But this is also an area where offseason moves fell short, and if there is going to be a mid-season move, right now another very good reliever would be at the top of my shopping list (at least for now). (Good thing is RPs are a far cheaper/more readily available "get" than trying to rebuild half of the rotation, which is our usual goal.)
  8. PatPfund
    Moran has plenty to prove at AAA (he has hardly pitched at that level, and he pitched pretty poorly when he did; 24 IP, 14 BB, 6.00 ERA, 1.6+ WHIP), and he should start on that tomorrow. Call up Ober in his stead if Maeda is not going on the IL, and regardless, start Ober in Maeda's slot next time around. I also had enough of the Archer dance last year, and would rather the Twins just put Kenta on IL for 10 days then give him rehab starts in St Paul. If after 3 or 4 he is strong enough for a regular turn, great; if not, just leave Ober in there, and let Maeda work out of the 'pen until he feels he is ready for a stretch-out and return to the rotation. (They need to control Maeda's innings anyway, this lets them do it.) Maeda instead of Moran in the bullpen sounds great to me. Pagán should be gone after this... but let's face it. He has pictures of Falvine and Rocco, or he has them hypnotized, or whatever. But sadly the "magic" probably still holds, and we are stuck with Emilio randomly blowing up on us for eternity.
  9. PatPfund
    Great article! I would dearly love to see Polanco healthy and back; it would return our quality backups to backups, and I strongly suspect it would mean occasional days at DH, and the occasional return of Byron to CF if he up to it (making the lineup stronger in two ways). I've mostly put Kirilloff in a mental refrigerator more to preserve my own sanity than because I know how things will turn out (I don't). But your words, and the fact he is playing regularly and hitting has a thaw going; I'm starting to dream about how a hale Alex and that lovely swing could transform the lineup, and like Polanco, there is a clear regular spot for him at first (and a corner OF slot). The others are definitely something to look forward to, and while injuries may clear space, at some point the Twins are going to have to make deliberate room for some or move them via trades (can't make those mid-season moves without chips of your own), or the newbies are going to have to force the issue by beating out veterans. Which is as it should be.
  10. PatPfund
    Great stuff!
  11. PatPfund
    Got out of work, turned on the radio in time to hear Ryan put the Yankees down 1-2-3 in the first, and then kind of laughed because I thought I heard Cory Provus say it was 9-0, and I knew that couldn't be true. (But it was! Freakin' awesome!)
  12. PatPfund
    OF is indeed a key position, and this was a great summary. If Taylor in the field means more healthy Byron at-bats, I'm fine with it (though I suspect at some point Buxton will get field time). Especially up to the point that we actually have some potent bats on the bench to DH (which with injuries and slow starts, we really don't). Max in particular needs to get healthy, and needs to start hitting, or he is a prime candidate to find bench time (or be this year's Tyler Duffey). Kepler (one of my personal favorites) isn't coming off a down year, but a batch of them with an increase in leg injuries mixing with a low average and loss of power. An outfield of Gordon, Taylor/Buxton, and Larnach/Gallo looks far more potent than one that includes Max (with Wallner and Lewis jostling to push Kepler further down the order). If Julien hits and/or Polo returns, Gordon's bat (like last year) may demand a run in the lineup, and that is most likely to be on the OF grass.
  13. PatPfund
    It is super early for too many snap judgements (I like a lot of what @Doctor Gastsays, but Julien only has one error at 2B, and Solano's brutal boot at 1B the other day on a slow roller was far from pretty well). Miranda has looked pretty bad at 3B, but it is also early, and he didn't even get to play the position much in Spring Training. Maybe they have to move him eventually, or maybe he evens out at third; time will tell. Upside is that if the pitching stays healthy and/or good the team has a great foundation for winning through the ups and downs of hitting cycles. And hitting is easier to fix than pitching whether it be internally (like Julien, Wallner, or later, Lee/Lewis), or externally through a trade in June/July. I don't really care about Buxton DHing right now (given the injured bats), because there aren't a lot of big bat alternatives on the pine (Solano and Farmer against lefties, sure, but both are historically not as good against RHs). But when Polanco comes back, he and Byron may need to split the DH as Designated Sore Knee Off Days. (Seriously) Hope I'm wrong, but my (admittedly medically ignorant) opinion is that Kirilloff shouldn't be counted on at all. Ever. Until he can actually play for a month. Which may be never. I also think the team is at least one good reliever short still, though hopefully Winder can help fix that soon. Love the Weekly Nelsons!
  14. PatPfund
    Polo for Castro, and I agree with your last sentence; I think Alex rehabs, then gets optioned to prove his wrists are actually healthy (short of injury need on the Twins). Unless Max flashes back to 2019, I see zero chance the Twins pick up the option. He is who he is, got no interest on the trade market last year, and is playing himself into a veteran defensive bench player (which the Twins frankly don't need). No way they are cutting Gallo in the foreseeable future after the KC games, and no way they are cutting Taylor at all since he gives the team a way to keep Buxton in the lineup with no loss on D. (Doubt they'd release Max either, but I'd do that before moving on from the other OF options. Assuming Max actually comes back from his knee anytime soon.) Larnach might have squeaked onto the roster, but he has quickly become a core roster player, his batting doesn't look flukey, and his increased walks cushion any batting average slump. I'm sure the Twins are planning on him long-term, so if he stays healthy, he's a Twin. Solano is a likelier cut (though he's also earning a longer leash with each strong game). Probably the dream for the team is to keep as many assets healthy, and thereby have something to deal at the deadline
  15. PatPfund
    I'd put Taylor right up there with Gray on the long side, and unless a CF prospect goes wild, Michael might be the most likely to return especially if Buxton is healthy most of the year playing PT in the field. I'd call Mahle a "long" given what they gave up, and his history, but not as long as Gray/Taylor. I think it will take an injury to get him superceded in the foreseeable future. But if he recovers, I'd be more willing to extend Mahle than Gray (due to age). I agree the Twins are probably medium on Solano, though he should be "short"; he's 35, and his last two seasons are pure average in OPS+. No way an aging mediocrity with no team heritage (or record of FT success) should block an MLB-ready prospect. Castro is the first send-down if a middle infielder starts knocking or Polanco comes back, but Solano is the easy 2nd move. (Ex: Jorge comes back PT, Julien starts hitting, and the Twins still need a leadoff hitter.) Totally agree with you on Pagán. Wish the Twins did too...
  16. PatPfund
    We probably aren't far apart (because neither really saw Sands making the Opening Day roster), but I sort of disagree with your last paragraph here assuming the Twins will be a competitive team. When you are down by 7, it really doesn't matter who comes in, any arm will do, but a good team probably has that happen once every couple weeks. Having a quarter of your 'pen being gas cans starts to hurt in two situations. 1. The SP struggles with control, uses a lot of pitches, but essentially needs to come out after 4 or 5, the team is down by a few, and you need a long arm to give the hitters a chance to rally (not somebody to eat innings while giving away the game). 2. A manager (let's call him Rocco for fun) gets in a habit of pulling people after 5 in competitive games, leans far too heavily on his top 4 RPs, and with them over-used finds himself forced to put 'low leverage' pitchers into high leverage situations (happened A LOT last year). As for amping up his stuff in a relief role, that is exactly what he was supposed to be doing this spring, and opponents beat him like a drum (12 innings pitched, 18 hits, 6 BB, 7 ER, 5.25 ERA, 2.00 WHIP per baseball-reference.com). That is more a stat line to get you released than one to make the 26-man, and if the Twins don't have a better option, I repeat that it is an indictment of their skipping the 'pen in the search for depth.
  17. PatPfund
    Sands making the Opening Day roster is a pretty clear sign the Twins overlooked the bullpen in their offseason-stack-up-quality-backups bonanza. He is the pitching equivalent of Gilberto Celestino; maybe Sands has the goods to play MLB someday, but he really hasn't shown it yet. I suspect his pitch selection has a lot to do with not being able to control his better pitches (thus the less-than-ideal walk rate), and at times having to throw fastballs to avoid walks. With Sands and Pagán, the Twins 'pen now has two (aka a full quarter of the RPs) pitchers you just don't want to pitch with a game on the line. Hopefully Winder and Henriquez heal quickly, and too bad the Twins didn't skip signing Solano (who looks like the Archer of position players, and instead use the money on an MLB RP. Or just keep Coulombe in the role instead of bowing to the lefty/righty fetishists. Unless he has copies of Pagán's pictures, Cole might easily be the first one dropped from the 26-man roster.
  18. PatPfund
    This should be an intriguing season, with what looks to be a strong foundation in the rotation and on defense, hopefully better base-running (the lowest of bars to clear after the '22 Debacle on De Bases), a couple big question marks in the 'pen (Pagán and Sands), and an offense could range from weak (Larnach, Gallo, Kepler, Taylor, Jeffers, Farmer, Solano, and Castro have similar/worse years than last year; Kirilloff, Polanco and Buxton limited by injuries) to fabulous (a few to several of the above step forward and Alex, Jorge, and Byron all play 100 games). Only real way to tell, is to roll the ball out there and get after it, and I am both hopeful and excited to see what the year brings!
  19. PatPfund
    Great piece. Baseball has been dying a slow death (emphasis on SLOW) in the US for a long time. Fewer and fewer watch it (it was startling that the highest rated Series game was around FORTY years ago), and/or play it. Recently on KFAN, one of the morning drive time hosts was asked which sport Mookie Betts played, and he had no idea. On another day something brought up requests to the sports gods, and one host said something like 'honestly, I wish they'd just make the Twins go away.' I think the rule changes (which are not even close to the first ones designed to speed up the game; umpires originally didn't call balls and strikes, and right into the 20th Century, I don't believe foul balls were ever strikes) will help. But clearly baseball still has the juice to drum up electric crowds and games, and MLB will need to foster that, and channel it if the game is to have a future. Viva the WBC!
  20. PatPfund
    I think Castro will essentially replace Gordon's role (backup OF/IF), which might be a need because I think Gordon is the primary replacement for Polanco. We don't actually know if Castro's numbers are a mirage or a breakthrough (dude isn't even 26 yet, and got thrown into the deep end of the pool early in Detroit). Plus, he is fast (pinch runner in the ninth or when we need a late stolen base), and hits from either side. Then I think the team options him when Polanco is back, or after a month if Julien keeps raking (then he takes second, Gordon goes back to UT, and Castro goes to St Paul. Hoffman could make the team, but I could also see him be an early non-injury release.
  21. PatPfund
    Umm. This just in. Solano looks terrible. He's 35 and no longer has the range of somebody you'd want out there half/most days. He's had precisely two (out of 9 pro seasons) really good batting years by OPS+ standards; 2019 at 116, and the short year of 2020 at 127 (in neither did he appear in more than 81 games). His OPS+ last year was 97, and he is currently hitting .040 (1 for 25) in ST. Farmer's OPS+ last year was 90, but at least he can play defense to make up for it. I'd start Gordon agains all lefties, Farmer against RHs, and give Solano a chance to get into the mix (but if he isn't hitting by the end of March, you start the countdown clock for Julien and the cutdown clock for Solano). Willie Castro would be a good add until Polanco is ready (and if his knee is bad enough after 8-9 months that he's still limping, I doubt we are talking a few weeks). And Larnach for Kirilloff. (Gallo can play 1B, Larnach can DH/OF, and Castro can fill the Gordon UT role since he'll mostly be at 2B.) If it were me, I'd release Solano out of ST, sign him to a minor league deal when he clears waivers, or wave goodbye if he walks. Castro is 10 years younger, is likely to hit the same, hits from both sides, and plays more positions than Solano including OF.
  22. PatPfund
    Not likely all three? The Twins admit that Kirilloff is behind their recovery timeline for what they also called a last resort surgery (hence the article we are commenting on). Polanco has yet to appear in a game, and Gordon is set (according to Baldelli) to play a lot of 2B in the coming week. (Which appears to be both concern about Polanco, but also the best current plan, because Gordon is a better move than Solano there.) That leaves Buxton, who DID play yesterday against minor leaguers, and hopefully is healthy, though there is pretty much nothing in his history that says he will play over 100 games. And yeah, I can take platoon players and point out their deficiencies, because having to play them out of their 'platoon' strength situations is highly likely if two or all three 'missing' Twins remain out or limited. I'm not actually gloom and doom, because there do seem to be rays of hope from Gallo and Kepler this spring, and those two could pick up the offensive loss of Kirilloff, and cover for the drop of leaning on platoons. But until Solano hits, he just looks like a position player version of Joe Smith. I agree with you about the timing for Julien, and if Donnie doesn't start hitting some barrels, cutting Solano is how I'd make space for him.
  23. PatPfund
    There are two options on Kirilloff. A (hopefully) he is still in recovery from a fairly experimental surgery, and we might see him in a month or so. B (fearfully), the radical surgery, essentially deemed a 'last resort' by the Twins has failed, and Kirilloff will never play in the majors again. I don't expect either Alex or the team will give up without giving the young man every chance, but option B now looms, and certainly has to be planned for at this point. Most of the options here are frankly weak. On many days (especially if Polanco and/or Buxton are also limited) the Twins' order would have these below average 2022 OPS+ ratings: Gallo (79), Kepler (90), Farmer (90), Solano (97), Taylor (90). A couple of them playing DH and 1B where you are supposed to have premium bats. That is crossing your fingers for a whole lot of bounce-back seasons, or hoping your pitchers throw a LOT of shutouts. Larnach (if healthy) must be on the roster if Kirilloff is not, and he and Gordon need to play in front of Farmer and Solano. @TwinsDr2021 is absolutely correct in this, and in the alternatives (Wallner and Julien who clearly looks ready to hit MLB pitching). Frankly, if Solano doesn't hit better than his current spring average of .067, by the end of March he is the guy I'd cut to make room for a youngster. He's 35, coming off a down year, and a "utility" guy likely to play sub-par D at most of his positions without the bat to make up for it. Julien can do that and likely hit much better.
  24. PatPfund
    I'm glad for Gilberto that he'll get a chance to develop in the minors this year. I'm also glad for myself that I won't have to watch him in a Twins uniform. I get why he was jumped to the majors. I (and everyone else) saw he clearly was in over his head. Last year was disappointing because the Twins essentially did little prep for another Byron injury, and because Celestino was still clearly in over his head. His defense is okay, not great. He still struggles with fundamentals like where to throw the ball, and how to run bases. He gets the least out of his speed of any fast guy I've seen in recent times. And little of that is out of his control; he should have a better grip on the game by 24. Maybe he gets better, and earns his way back. Or maybe players like Martin, Lee, and Lewis, who are all better offensive threats, push Gilberto aside on their march to the majors (they can't all play infield), and he never makes it back to Mpls as his home field. I honestly don't know which it will be, but I'd lean a bit toward the last option. (If Martin has to have Tommy John surgery, that might be Gilberto's biggest break.)
  25. PatPfund
    The Twins are not an "ace" away from a title. And an "ace" is no guarantee of success; just look at your list, and see how few titles are held by those pitchers. Burnes is a great pitcher, but he is controllable for 2 years, and then is gone. How about we play the year, and see where we are at mid-season before we throw away assets we may need to actually get good. Maybe we'll find out we already have an ace on staff.
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